1European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

GENSPACE

Air Traffic Management

Philippe DEBELSCEATS Research Development and Simulation

centre, Budapest

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ATM : Overview

TodayThe Air Transport “System”Analysis - Performance

TomorrowForecastStrategy Documents

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ATM TodayAir Transport System – Actors

Main actorsAirspace users – The AirlinesAirports Air Navigation Service Providers

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ATM TodayAir Transport – Airlines Europe

5.000 commercial aircraft

Average flight 750 km Average flight duration 1h20

30.000 flights per day 10.000.000 flights per year13.000.000 flight hours per year

Load factor (fill rate) 65 %1 B pax per year (100 pax/flight)

700.000 employees

Total revenue 100 B€/year

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ATM TodayAir Transport – Airports Europe

2.200 airports in 36 countries 766 recognised by IATA

17.700.000 movements/year

135.000 employees

RevenueAeronautical 11 B€/yearNon-aeronautical 11 B€/year

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ATM TodayAir Transport – Air Navigation - Europe

ICAO: The contracting States recognize that every State has complete and exclusive sovereignty over the airspace above its territory.

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ATM TodayAir Transport – Air Navigation - Europe

ShanwickOAC

EUROCONTROL: 37 Member States 37 Service Providers (ANSP) 68 Area Control Centres (ACC)600 Sectors at full capacity

417 Towers199 Approach units

15.000 Air Traffic Controllers40.000 Support staff55.000 Employees

Total revenue 7.5 B€/year

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REMEMBERMain figures – Eurocontrol 37 Countries

30.000 flight per day Average 750 km or 1h30 15.000 Air Traffic Controllers (total 55.000 staff) 600 sectors Air Transport European Region : 120 billion €/year ATM cost Europe : 7.5 billion €/year

ATM Today: the System Summary

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ATM TodayThe System – Analysis

AnalysisFragmentationHeterogeneityComplexity

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ATM TodayThe System – Fragmentation Actors

Fragmentation – All actors concernedAirspace: size, military TSA, …ANSPs: civil/military; size; units (ACCs, APPs).

ATM systems, interfaces, CNS infrastructure.Process: procurement, development, …

Cost estimate fragmentation: 1 B €/year

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ATM TodayThe System - Heterogeneity

Heterogeneity– Productivity: Flight h / ATCO h: 0.13 to 1.53, <> 0.65– Institutional arrangement:

• Gvt department, State enterprise, Gvt owned company,• Limited liability company

– Safety: Heterogeneous implementation of regulations– Costs:

– Cost controlled flight h: 185 to 650€/h, <> 453€/h– Cost of ATCO: 3 to 135€/h, <> 69 €/h

0.6 B €/yearBring ‘last in class’ to average

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ATM TodayThe System - Complexity

Non-linear relation between traffic and delays !

Complexity not uniform

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ATM TodayPerformance Review

PerformanceCapacity and DelaysCost-effectivenessFlight efficiencySafety

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ATM Today: PerformanceCapacity and Delays

3-year capacity-traffic lag being squeezed80% capacity growth 1990-2000 1 minute average delay/flight by 2006

De-coupling delays and traffic growthInvestments too much “reactive” ?

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ATM Today: Performance Capacity and Delays

En-route ATFM delays slightly increasing 1.4 min/flightin high traffic growth,

Nearly at economic optimum delay target 1 min/flight

Airport ATFM delays warrant special attention.

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ATM Today: Performance Capacity and Delays

Cost of delays Delay ? Definition ? Cost for whom ? Tactical; Reactionary; Strategic delays; Passengers ?

Average 72 €/minCrew 10 €Maintenance 1 €Pax compensation 24 €Pax opportunity cost 36 €

289 €/min<1 €/min

1 B €/year

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ATM Today: Performance Cost-effectiveness

Until now, cost ~ traffic, unit cost and effectiveness stable.

But …Available projections indicate that unit costs will decrease more or less in line with the cost-effectiveness target in the coming years.

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ATM Today: Performance Flight efficiency

Flight not direct. Cause: airspace structure, en-route congestion, route charge differentials .

Marginal cost of schedule time:€ 19/min for an ATR42 €131/min for a B747-400

average €6.4/NM €3.5/km (2004)

Margin for improvement

Military zone

1.5 B €/year

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ATM Today: Performance Safety

Data ? “Some progress … … incident reporting and transparency. Legal and cultural impediments ….. …. still exist 24 regulatory authorities & 19 ANSPs …. not meet acceptable maturity level”

15 States: more incidents reported; High severity incidents constant

ATM contribution: 2..6 %

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ATM Today: Performance Summary

REMEMBER ATM is performing well:

Average delays at near economic optimum : 1.4 min/flight Unit costs stable : 0.80 € /km Delay costs for airlines : 70 € /minute

But, still high margins for improvements: Safety level (implementation of regulations; reporting) Fragmentation : 1 B€/year Delays (ATFM) : 1 B€ / year Productivity : 0.6 B€ / year Flight Efficiency : 1.5 B€ / year

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ATM Tomorrow: ForecastChallenge 1 - Traffic growth

Growth of controlled air traffic: 4 % in 2006

Expected to continue at similar rates.

Traffic growth varied greatly across control centres in 2006 (0% to +20%).

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ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 1 - Traffic growth

Some countries

spectacular

increases of

20% in 2006

Heterogeneity

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ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 1 - Traffic growth

A: strong economies and limited oil price growthB: ‘business as usual’C: increased environmental costs, larger aircraft, more limited trade, traffic liberalizationD: world of tensions between regions and very high oil price

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1997 2000

2010 2020

DIVISION DED 4 - 4/11/97

7.0 Mio Flights 8.0 Mio Flights

11.9 Mio Flights 15.8 Mio Flights

Flights 150 or more

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ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety

What people perceive

Accidents = Traffic x Accident Rate

Public perceives Absolute Number of Accident, Not the Accident Rate ! Needs to be lowered drastically !

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ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety

At constant Safety LevelRelation between accidents rate and

traffic is QUADRATIC:absolute accident = constanttraffic x 2 safety level x 4

0

1

2

3

4

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Traffic (million flights)

Risk trend Risk target

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Relation between accidents rate and traffic is quadratic:If absolute accident = constantIf Traffic x 2Then safety level x 4

ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety

3 flights3 potential conflicts

3 flights3 potential conflicts

3 x 2 flights

3 x 22 = 12 potential conflicts

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ATM Tomorrow Strategy Documents

European Commission, Sep.2001 White Paper « European Transport Policy for 2010 »

European Commissioner for Research, Jan.2001 Group of Aeronautics Personalities A vision for 2020

Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe (ACARE) Strategic Research Agenda: SRA-1 and SRA-2

Single European Sky and SESAR

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ATM Tomorrow Strategy Documents

Challenges for 2020 Traffic: 2000 2020: 3 x more traffic Safety: Accident rate -80%; Safety: x 10 Environment: Emissions, Noise: - 50% … -80% Quality of service

Time in airport maximum 15 min (short) and 30 min (long) 99% flight within 15 min of schedule, all weather conditions

Security: Zero successful hijack ONE European airspace – “SES”

European rules ! New Air Traffic Control Paradigm ?

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ATM TomorrowSummary

REMEMBER Traffic increase 4 .. 5% / year Traffic forecast for 2025 2 .. 3 x Safety relation to traffic QUADRATIC Safety target 10 x Quality target

Time in airport 15 .. 30 min Punctuality 99% flight within 15 min

all weather conditions

R&D budget 200 M€/year (3%)

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ATM : Preparing for the future

The futureSolutionsRole of the CRDS

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DMEAN

8.33

ModeS

LINK2000 ACAS

CASCADE

FASTI

SESAR

Predicted capacity

Traffic

Closing the capacity gap

Safety - Security

Airports

1 minute delay

R&D

R&D

R&D

2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122004

Possible solutions : Route optimisation (cf. Flight efficiency)

Additional sectors (physical limit)

EUROCONTROL Potential solutions

Support tools for controllers New technologies

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A European ATM Master Plan To Unlock Air Transport

SESAR Support Single European Sky

technical/operational implementation

3 Phases: Definition of European ATM Master

Plan ( early 2008) Development (2008 2013) Deployment (2014 2020)

SESAR Support Single European Sky

technical/operational implementation

3 Phases: Definition of European ATM Master

Plan ( early 2008) Development (2008 2013) Deployment (2014 2020)

Converging Industry, EC & EUROCONTROL

Needs: Turn off fragmented approach Accelerate ATM evolution in

response to challenges Synchronise & integrate plans

from research to operations Synchronise airborne and

ground deployments

Converging Industry, EC & EUROCONTROL

Needs: Turn off fragmented approach Accelerate ATM evolution in

response to challenges Synchronise & integrate plans

from research to operations Synchronise airborne and

ground deployments

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Possible solutions : Route network optimisation Additional sectors Support tools for controllers New technologies

But … Maximum benefit in large airspace Need to be further optimised Need to be tested and validated

Task of CRDS Develop and improve the solutions (R&D) Test and validate the solutions (simulations) Disseminate the knowledge (training)

EUROCONTROL Potential solutions

FABCEATS

3 Pillars for CRDS

DMEAN

8.33

ModeS

LINK2000 ACAS

CASCADE

FASTI

Phase 2

SESAR

Predicted capacity

Traffic

Closing the capacity gap

Safety - Security

Airports

1 minute delay

Programme phases for capacity

R&D

R&D

R&D

2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122004

Phase 1

Phase 3

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Focal point ATM R&D Central EuropeFocal point ATM R&D Central Europe CRDS has limited resources for R&D !CRDS has limited resources for R&D ! Develop own expertise (e.g. civil/military; contingency, data link, …)Develop own expertise (e.g. civil/military; contingency, data link, …) Act as a catalyst and concentrate on:Act as a catalyst and concentrate on:

Issues relevant for CEATS, with potential wider applicationIssues relevant for CEATS, with potential wider application Domains not yet covered by othersDomains not yet covered by others

Develop partnerships with the EUROCONTROL Experimental Develop partnerships with the EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre, R&D Establishments, Industry, Universities (Graz, Centre, R&D Establishments, Industry, Universities (Graz, ŽŽilina, ilina, Budapest, Trieste, Belgrade, Dresden, … ) and Budapest, Trieste, Belgrade, Dresden, … ) and Military Academies !Military Academies !

CRDS1. R&D Co-ordination

Data link Civil/Military FUA

Syst.Appl.Dir.RoutingPerformance Metrics

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Validation through simulationsValidation through simulations Improve and Validate operational and Improve and Validate operational and

technical conceptstechnical concepts Improve : Improve :

Translate concept in applicable working methodsTranslate concept in applicable working methods Provide recommendationsProvide recommendations

Validate:Validate: Provide information of performance to decision makersProvide information of performance to decision makers Information on Operability, Safety, Capacity, .

. Environment, Economy According to common standards

E-OCVM for validation methodology ESARRs (2 and 4) : for R : for Risk assessment and Risk mitigation ISO Certification process initiated

CRDS 2. Validation Simulations

E-OCVM: European Operational Concept Validation Model ESARR: Eurocontrol Safety Regulatory Requirement

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Validation through simulationsValidation through simulations ModelModel--BasedBased Simulations (MBS): Simulations (MBS):

Use a mathematical simulatorUse a mathematical simulator + : faster, large airspace, longer periods+ : faster, large airspace, longer periods - : human is simulated- : human is simulated Capacity, Environment & EconomyCapacity, Environment & Economy

Real-Time Simulations (RTS):Real-Time Simulations (RTS): Simulate a “real” environmentSimulate a “real” environment + : Human participation (controller & pilot) + : Human participation (controller & pilot) - : Costly and “labour intensive”- : Costly and “labour intensive” Operability & SafetyOperability & Safety

CRDS 2. Validation Simulations

CapacityCapacity: : typical 4 RTS and 4 MBS per year, depending on complexity typical 4 RTS and 4 MBS per year, depending on complexity

2001 – 2006 : 18 RTS and 12 MBS2001 – 2006 : 18 RTS and 12 MBS 2007 2007 : 4 RTS and 4 MBS + Connect with MALEV Flight Simulator : 4 RTS and 4 MBS + Connect with MALEV Flight Simulator

Human

EquipmentProcedures

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Support to TrainingSupport to Training The CRDS will add an The CRDS will add an additional elementadditional element to the regional simulation to the regional simulation

training capability in particular for training and familiarisation with training capability in particular for training and familiarisation with advanced system featuresadvanced system features. .

Support “Training of the Trainers” in the context of CEATSSupport “Training of the Trainers” in the context of CEATS In co-operation* with the other ANSP training centres and the In co-operation* with the other ANSP training centres and the

EUROCONTROL IANS (Luxembourg). EUROCONTROL IANS (Luxembourg). In co-operation with universities in the regionIn co-operation with universities in the region

Visitors’ Day, GENSPACE, Advanced Concepts in RTS, …Visitors’ Day, GENSPACE, Advanced Concepts in RTS, …

* Co-operation to avoid overlap in existing and future work programmes

CRDS 3. Support to Training

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CRDS Team CRDS Team 13 staff 10 contractors Experienced ATCOs

Simulator FacilitiesSimulator FacilitiesReal-Time: 26 Controllers Working Positions 20 Pilot Working Positions ASMT

Model-Based (Mathematical models) RAMS Plus TAAM (Total Airspace & Airport Modeller) LUCIAD

CRDSStaff and Resources

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EUROCONTROL CRDS Simulator environment