1

Dynamic modeling in a Dynamic modeling in a representative representative

watershed (Guadalupe)watershed (Guadalupe)

Michelle Lent, John Oram, and Lester Michelle Lent, John Oram, and Lester McKeeMcKee

Sources Pathways and Loadings Sources Pathways and Loadings WorkgroupWorkgroup

May 6May 6thth 2010 2010

Item #3f

San Francisco Estuary Institute

2

Status updateStatus update Project put on hold in Sept. 2009 to Project put on hold in Sept. 2009 to leverage results of other studies, e.g. leverage results of other studies, e.g. WY 2010 monitoring in GuadalupeWY 2010 monitoring in Guadalupe

TRC approved carrier-over funds for 2010TRC approved carrier-over funds for 2010

Project to resume shortlyProject to resume shortly

Current status: Current status: Fully calibrated and validated hydrology modelFully calibrated and validated hydrology model Partially calibrated sediment modelPartially calibrated sediment model Data partially collated for pollutant (Hg & PCB) Data partially collated for pollutant (Hg & PCB) model model

Item #3f

San Francisco Estuary Institute

3

Phase 2 (sediment, Hg & PCBs Phase 2 (sediment, Hg & PCBs model) timelinemodel) timeline

Item #3f

San Francisco Estuary Institute

Task/DeliverableTask/Deliverable Due DateDue DateCalibrated Calibrated Sediment ModelSediment Model Aug. 2010Aug. 2010Calibrated Calibrated Pollutant ModelPollutant Model Sept. 2010Sept. 2010

Draft ReportDraft Report

Oct. 2010 (by Oct. 2010 (by next SPLWG next SPLWG meeting)meeting)

Final ReportFinal Report Dec. 2010Dec. 2010

4

Proposed Phase 3 - model Proposed Phase 3 - model improvements & usageimprovements & usage

Extend model timeframe to include WY2008-2010Extend model timeframe to include WY2008-2010- Allows for further Hg & PCBs calibration to Guadalupe Allows for further Hg & PCBs calibration to Guadalupe River sampling data collected in recent yearsRiver sampling data collected in recent years

- WY 2010 hydrology and rainfall will be preliminary WY 2010 hydrology and rainfall will be preliminary data from USGS and Water Districtdata from USGS and Water District

Split lumped treatment of PCBs into the nine Split lumped treatment of PCBs into the nine homologue groupshomologue groups

Model land management scenariosModel land management scenarios- Investigate impacts of land-use change and LID/BMP Investigate impacts of land-use change and LID/BMP implementation scenarios of value to WGimplementation scenarios of value to WG

Although not a focus of this group – we could Although not a focus of this group – we could also explore climate change scenariosalso explore climate change scenarios

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San Francisco Estuary Institute

5

Proposed Phase 3 budgetProposed Phase 3 budgetItem #3f

San Francisco Estuary Institute

ActivActivityity

DescriptionDescription Est. Est. CostCost

Task Task 11

Project managementProject management $2,500$2,500

Task Task 22

Timeframe extensionTimeframe extension $7,500$7,500

Task Task 33

PCB homologuesPCB homologues $12,500$12,500

Task Task 44

Land management Land management scenariosscenarios

$10,000$10,000

Task Task 55

Climate change Climate change scenariosscenarios

$7,500$7,500

Task Task 5a5a

Contingency - Contingency - purchase data for purchase data for climate change climate change scenariosscenarios

$2,500$2,500

Task Task 66

ReportingReporting $12,500$12,500

TotalTotal $55,000$55,000

options