1

Current and Future needs of Numerical Weather

Prediction Guidance at the NOAA Aviation Weather

Center

Jason LevitTechniques Development Meteorologist

Aviation Weather CenterKansas City, MO

Jason.Levit@noaa.gov

Current and Future needs of Numerical Weather

Prediction Guidance at the NOAA Aviation Weather

Center

Jason LevitTechniques Development Meteorologist

Aviation Weather CenterKansas City, MO

Jason.Levit@noaa.gov

2

AWC Current NWP Guidance

AWC Current NWP Guidance

NAM

GFS

SREFRUC

UKMET

HIRES ARW

HIRES NMM

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AWC Future NWP GuidanceAWC Future NWP Guidance

NAM

GFS

FIM

SREFWRF RR

UKMET

VSREF HRRR

SPC ARW

HIRES ARW

HIRES NMM

HRRRe

4

Aviation Weather Testbed Support

Aviation Weather Testbed Support

AWRP

FIP/CIP

GTG

High Resolutio

n Guidance

Spring Experiment

Operational Bridging

Traffic Impact

Convective Initiation

Ensembles

Calibration

ECFP Enhancement

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High Resolution Model Guidance

High Resolution Model Guidance

10K

20K

30K

Boundary Layer

• Convective initiation• Ceiling and visibility• Low-level turbulence• Icing

• Improved boundary layer structure from mixed model/mixed physics ensembles

6

High Resolution Model Guidance

High Resolution Model Guidance

10K

20K

30K

Mid Atmosphere

• Microphysics!

• Detailed icing• Improved mountain wave turbulence

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High Resolution Model Guidance

High Resolution Model Guidance

10K

20K

30K Convection

• Storm intensity/Storm top• Radar data assimilation• Ensembles• Day 2 and Day 3 planning (ECFP)

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Ensemble GuidanceEnsemble Guidance

High Resolution

(4km)Calibration

Probabilistic

Forecasts

Improved user tools and forecaster workflow

Data Volume/Archiv

e

9

Volcanic Ash Model Guidance

Volcanic Ash Model Guidance

• FIM• HYSPLIT• Improved ash concentration• Improved chemical species concentration

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SummarySummary

•Ensembles

•Probabilistic Guidance

High Res

•Traffic Impact/Calibration

•Convective Initiation

•Support of NextGen goals

Testbed

•FIMVolcanic Ash