1 Co-benefits of CDM projects in China CDM and Climate Policy: Multidisciplinary Perspectives MILEN Workshop 18 November 2009 Holmenkollen Park Hotell,

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Co-benefits of CDM projects in China

CDM and Climate Policy: Multidisciplinary Perspectives MILEN Workshop 18 November 2009

Holmenkollen Park Hotell, Oslo

Kristin Aunan Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO)

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Outline

• Emissions of CO2 and air pollutants in China

• Air pollution co-benefits of CO2 mitigation

• Co-benefits of China’s current CDM portfolio

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Outline




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0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

USA

EU

Japan

Other developed countries

FSU

China

India

Other developing countries

• China1990: 11% of global emissions

• China 2008: 22%

• Global emissions growth 2007-2008: China’s share was 70%

China dominates global emissions and emissions growth

Myhre et al., 2009

CO2 from fossil fuels (GtC/yr)

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Half of the growth in CO2 towards 2030 may come from China

• ~80% of the growth in emissions 2005-2030 from developing countries

• ~60% from developing Asia

• ~40% from China alone

• (NB: These are BAU scenarios..)

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Power plants

Iron and Steel

Cement

Other industry

Transport

Res idential

NOx

Power plants and industry largest sources of emissions of CO2, SO2, and NOx

Power plants

Iron and Steel

Cement

Other industry

Transport

Residential

CO2

Power plants

Iron and Steel

Cement

Other industry

Transport

Residential

SO2

Peters et al. (2009) based on China Statistical Yearbook

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Outline




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’Co-benefits’: Climate-change and air-pollution links

• Source link: CO2 and the main air pollutants have the same sources

• Air pollutants, especially tropospheric ozone and particles, play an important role in the climate system

• Chemistry: Some air pollutants affect the lifetimes of GHGs

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’Co-benefits’: Climate-change and air-pollution links

• Source link: CO2 and the main air pollutants have the same sources

• Air pollutants, especially tropospheric ozone and particles, play an important role in the climate system

• Chemistry: Some air pollutants affect the lifetimes of GHGs

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Co-benefits include:

• Avoided mortality and morbidity due to exposures to air pollution

• Avoided corrosion to materials and heritage due to acid rain

• Avoided damage to crops and ecosystems due to surface ozone and acid rain

• Avoided costs in air pollution abatement

• Avoided climate disturbance from air pollutants (PM, O3…)

Beijing, november 2007

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Air pollution co-benefits of CO2 mitigation in developing countries are well documented

• US-EPA IES program: – Co-control options accounting for health co-benefits

(Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Mexico, Phillippines, South Korea.. )

• IGES (Institute for Global Env. Strategies):– Research on co-benefits of climate actions in the

Asia-Pacific region

• Clean Air Initiative: Asia

• IIASA (Gains model)

• Academic scholars/publications: – Health and environmental co-benefits of GHG

mitigation often exceed the costs– Air pollutants as a climate forcing (trade-offs!)

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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

China (O'Connor et al., 2003)

China (Garbaccio et al, 2000)

India (Bussolo and O'Connor, 2001)

Hungary (Aunan et al., 1998)

Chile (Dessus and O'Connor 1999)

Chile (Cifuentes et al., 1999)

USA (Abt Associates, 1997)

LOCAL PROJECTS, CHINA:

(Mestl et al, 2005; Aunan et al., 2004)

Co-generation heat and electr.

Industrial boilers (energy efficiency)

Coal washing

Coal briquettes replace raw coal in cooking/heating

Steel work - low stack sources

Steel work - high stack sources

District heating

Avoided deaths/mtCO2

665

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IPCC AR4 concludes:

“..in all analyzed world regions near-term health co-benefits from reduced air pollution as a result of actions to reduce GHG emissions can be substantial and may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs (high agreement, much evidence)”

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Outline




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China by far the largest CDM country

Figure: Volumes of proposed CDM project emissions reductions, through 2012. Source:Point Carbon 2009

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• Draws upon studies on health and environmental co-benefits of CO2 reductions in China (energy-related, potential CDM)

• Exploiting China’s CDM potential (energy): 3,000-40,000 premature deaths avoided each year, and

• 1-45 billion RMB saved due to avoided morbidity and hospitalization, crop loss, material damage…

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A simplified methodology for estimating co-benefits of current Chinese CDM portfolio(Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)

• Statistical sampling from the 1754 active CDM projects in China as of July 1st 2009 (UNEP CDM Pipeline database) – categorized according to project type and geographical location

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CERs from China’s CDM portfolio (2010)

Central18 %

East25 %

Hainan0 %

North25 %

North East12 %

North West8 %

South12 %Zero Emiss ion

Renewables37 %

Biomass (crop res idues in PP)

4 %Waste (e.g. biogas)

1 %Foss i l fuel switch

7 %

Coal bed methane

8 %

F-Gas21 %

Cement0 %

N2O9 %

Energy effi ciency

(Own generation at

plant level )12 %

Energy effi ciency (Supply-s ide and

Industry)1 %

Forestry0 %

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• Sample from the 1754 active CDM projects in China as of July 1st 2009 (UNEP CDM Pipeline database) – categorized into project type and geographical location

• From information in the Project Design Document and emission factors in GAINS-Asia database: co-abatement rate for SO2, PM2.5, and Nox re estimated

A simplified methodology for estimating co-benefits of current Chinese CDM portfolio(Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)

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Co-control rate for project types

(Based on Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Cement

Coal bed methane

Waste

Zero Emission Renewables

Biomass PP (crop residues etc)

Fossil fuel switch

Energy eff. (Own production at plant level)

Energy eff. (Supply-side and Industry)

tSO2/ktCO2

tNOx/ktCO2

tPM2.5/ktCO2

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Zero Emiss ion Renewables

49 %

Biomass6 %

Waste0 %

FF Switch23 %

Fugitive3 %

F-Gas0 %

Cement0 % N2O

0 %

EE Own Generation17 %

EE Supply-s ide and Industry

2 % Forestry0 %

SO2


63 %Biomass7 %

Waste0 %Foss i l fuel switch

1 %

Coal bed methane2 %

F-Gas0 %

Cement0 %

N2O0 %

Energy effi ciency (Own generation at

plant level )19 %


Industry)8 %

Forestry0 %

NOx


47 %

Biomass10 %

Waste0 %

Fossi l fuel switch22 %

Coal bed methane2 %

F-Gas0 %

Cement0 %

N2O0 %

Energy effi ciency (Own generation at

plant level)16 %


Industry)3 %

Forestry0 %

PM2.5Total offsets of air pollutants (2010)

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Total offsets: Annual CO2 reductions and co-abated air pollution

• CER in 2008: ~2% of China’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels

• SO2 reduction from CDM in 2010: ~20% of China’s targeted SO2 reduction in 11th five year plan

• PM2.5 and NOx: Small share of total emissions, but large co-benefits0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CER Generation (MtCO2eq)

SO2 Offsets (ktSO2)

PM Offsets (ktPM2.5)

NOx Offsets (ktNOx)

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A simplified methodology cont., health (premature mortality)

• Assume an average 0.10 avoided deaths per tPM2.5 for energy related ‘CDM type projects’ in China (from Vennemo et al. 2006). This is 2.6 times the figure estimated for general PM2.5 reductions in Europe in the CAFE Programme

• Adjust according to project type (ie. height and dispersion of emission – ’intake fraction’ (from Ho and Nielsen, 2007) and region (i.e. population density (from Tan et al. 2008)

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Avoided deaths rate for project types and regions Aggregate results for five types of offsets: Grid offsets; Point

sources (biomass+non-biomass); Transport; Biomass open burning


-0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

Cement

Coal bed methane

Waste

Zero Emission Renewables (hydro, wind..new PP)

Biomass (crop residues in PP)

Fossil fuel switch



Avoided deaths from reduced PM2.5 exposure/tCO2

South

North West

North East

North

Hainan

East

Central

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A simplified methodology cont., agricultural crop loss

• A reduced form model for the NOx→surface ozone → crop loss link for China based on Aunan et al. (2000) was applied to estimate avoided crop loss from a nationwide CO2 tax in China in Vennemo et al. (2009):

Average avoided crop loss per ktNOx associated with a CO2-tax: 0.026 mill Yuan (2005)/tNOx

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-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Cement

Coal bed methane

Waste

Zero Emission Renewables (hydro, …


Fossil fuel switch

Energy eff. (Own production at plant …


Health benefit

Avoided crop loss

Co-benefit rate of China’s CDM portfolio 2010 (€/tCO2eq)


CER cost ~10-15 Euro/tCO2eq

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Sensitivity: Use of iF weighting reduces the health damage estimates; use of geographical weighting enhances them) Figure: No weighting

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Cement

Coal bed methane

Waste

Zero Emission Renewables (hydro, wind..new PP)


Fossil fuel switch



Health benefit

Avoided crop loss

Euro/tCO2eq

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Total benefit (avoided deaths and crop loss) of CDM in China (2010): 14 billion RMB (~1.4 bill €)


55 %

Biomass8 %Waste

0 %

FF Switch10 %

Coal bed methane2 %

F-Gas0 %

Cement0 %

N2O0 %

EE Own Generation

18 %


7 %

Forestry0 %

Total benefit (RMB)

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Value of co-benefits vs value of CERs

-5 0 5 10 15 20


Biomass

Waste

FF Switch

Coal bed methane

F-Gas

Cement

N2O

EE Own Generation


Forestry

Value of CER (bill RMB)

Health and crop co-benefit (bill RMB)

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Conclusions• Energy related CDM projects in

China bring substantial health and environmental co-benefits, on average worth maybe ~1/3 of the CERs’ value

• Energy efficiency in industry and power production has the largest co-benefit rate per ton CO2

• Zero-emissions renewables (wind, new solar and hydro..) currently bring the largest co-benefits

• PDD currently not required to provide AP impacts – perhaps they should?

Documents

1 Co-benefits of CDM projects in China CDM and Climate Policy: Multidisciplinary Perspectives MILEN Workshop 18 November 2009 Holmenkollen Park Hotell,