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Climate change and the daily Climate change and the daily press: press:

did we miss the point entirely?did we miss the point entirely?

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Debate? What debate?

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Is the science “in”?

• Scepticism, more or less common in the media

• ‘Deniers’, ‘naysayers’, ‘challengers’, etc.

Sometimes, pretty high profile

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“¡Oiga usté…!”

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Rajoy and his cousin

• Not a former VP — Aspiring PM— Meeting with business people:

“We cannot turn (climate change) into the most important problem in the world”

Does it even matter?

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My right arm for a source

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“A reasonable doubt?”

• Rajoy’s cousin is a Physicist— “I don’t know a lot… but I assume he must know something”— Top 10 scientists— Tomorrow’s weather in Sevilla— The Earth, 300 years into the future?

It does matter!

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Why it matters

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He’s just a politician!

• Indeed, Rajoy doesn’t know a lot— weather ≠ climate— “My cousin, he is a Physics Professor”— “He must know something”— Therefore, Rajoy takes his word at face value…— Must we all?

Principle of Authority

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Bias for balance

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Please, oh please… be an authority for me!• Are you a scientist? A politician?• A stakeholder?• Can I quote you?• Will you give me a little balance, please?

(Boykoff & Boykoff => bias) Is there a ‘source of choice’?

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IPCC

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How about a primary source?• What--climate scientists themselves?!?• There are thousands of them!!

Is it a metter of stridency, then?

• Well, indeed… …but there’s IPCC• Metanalysis (they don’t do the research)• Consensus

• Are they infallible?• Probably not• But sceptics lack a unified voice

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Give me an F!!

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Not the battle of the db• Let’s pursue the science!• IPCC: More than just the hockey stick• While we’re at it… where’s the science of the sceptics?

So what has IPCC contributed as a

source?

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A couple of questions

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Is it?… Are we?…• IPCC Report 2001 (that is 2001 BG)• Is climate change a reality?• Are humans at least partly responsible?

IPCC: Yes… and Yes

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Climate Change: Here to stay?

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The end of the debate?

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Was this a turning point?• Before IPCC 2001 and after IPCC 2001?• Well… yes!!• Shift in scientific debate within IPCC• IPCC is not the only source…… but it is not any source either

Did the press report the shift in timely

fashion?

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Here, there… and not everywhere

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Analysis of coverage• La Jornada, Reforma, El Universal• El País, Le Monde, The New York Times• September 1st, 2000 to January 1st, 2001• Should do TV, radio and W3!!

Results?…As expected (sadly)

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“Blissfully unaware”

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You reap what you sow

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COP 16: Total de notas

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COP 16: Duración

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COP 16: Encuadres

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COP 16: Fuentes

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With press like this, who wants enemies?

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Is this quality coverage?

• Let’s rephrase: does it function?• What is journalism for?

KOVACH & ROSENSTIEL“The primary purpose of journalism is to

provide citizens with the information they need to be free and self-governing”Really?…

What’s a journalist supposed to do?

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He frees me… he frees me not…

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Journalism shall make you free!?!• How can it be done?

A functional theory of science journalism

in action

• Citizens make decisions• Journalism ought to inform decision processes

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What do you need to know?

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Framing stems from the needs of the public• What decisions might readers want to make?• What do they need to know to make them?

Back to IPCC 2001

• Decisions drive points of information• Content analysis in reverse!!

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Make my own mind

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Remember Rajoy’s cousin?

• Neither Rajoy, nor his cousin, not even IPCC is to be trusted blindly• Rather, give me the information I need to make up my own mind based on decisions I make

• Is climate change for real?• Are we causing it?• How do they know?• What ought to be done/stopped?

Decision grid

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Decision grid

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• Is there really such a thing as global warming?• Why do scientists think that global warming is not due to natural climate variability?• Why do scientists think that human activities are responsible for global warming?• How dangerous is this warming trend? • What demands could I make from my government in realtion to climate change?

• Mean temperature records (0.6ºC ± 0.2ºC)• Unprecedented in the historical record of the last few centuries• Greenhouse model• Computer simulations without CO2 forcing• Human activities => CO2 emissions• “Hockey stick” (<T> and CO2 vs. time)• Extreme weather• Coastal vulnerability• Mitigation strategies and technology possible for local planning

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Table 5:

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Table 5:

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Table 5:

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Table 5:

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Table 5:

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Table 5:

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Table 5:

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Table 5:

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And in the end

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Conclusions• Functional model for Science Journalism• Diagnostic tool and guidance for coverage• Decisions by citizens drive contents• Mexican press missed IPCC 2001• How could Mexican citizens have made up their minds concerning CC back in 2001?• Future work: charcaterise science content

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FINFIN

javier crúz

Dirección General de Divulgación de la Ciencia

UNAMUNAM

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