1-CC For CCA ILOC CAGVAL CAR 090313.pdf

8/9/2019 1-CC For CCA ILOC CAGVAL CAR 090313.pdf

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LANDRICO U. DALIDA JR., PhDRegional Director

Southern Luzon PAGASA Regional Services Division

Climate Change Academy, Legazpi City, Albay2013


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The Intergovernmental Panel on CC

4th

Assessment Report 2007 (AR4):

Warming of the Climate System

is UNEQUIVOCAL!


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- an increasein the earth'stemperature due to the use of fossil fuelsand certain industrial and agriculturalprocesses leading to a buildup of greenhousegases

(principally carbon dioxide, methane,nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, and water

vapor) in the atmosphere, which in turncauses changes in climate.

"Global Warming," Microsoft Encarta Encyclopedia 2000. 1993-1999Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved.


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Greenhouse ffect

-is the rise in temperature thatthe Earth experiences becausecertain gases in the atmosphere

trap energyfrom the Sun .


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Incoming Radiation


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GHGs are gaseous constituents, both natural and man-

made, that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation and

has the ability to trap heat at the Earth

s surface.


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What is Global Warming?

Earth has warmed by about 0.7 C over the past

100 years. But why? And how?

Earth could be getting warmer due to naturalcauses

World's leading climate scientists think that

warming is due to human activities

Source: IPCC 2007 WG1: AR4, Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert


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Increase in long term average globalsurface temperature


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Nine of last ten years from 19962005 except 1996 rank

among the warmest in global instrumental record

obtained since 1861

Warmest year in entire record remains 1998,

which was enhanced by 19971998 El Nio

2nd, 3rd and 4th warmest years were 2002, 2003, and

2004, respectively



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Recent warming due to increase in GHGs

Carbon dioxide

Methane

Nitrous oxides

CFCs and HCFCs

Ozone



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Polar ice core data show that current levels of atmospheric

CO2, CH4 and N2O are way above levels in more than

650,000years records

Small variations in CO2 concentrations observed between

end of last ice age and start of industrial era around 1750

are attributed to natural processes

Atmospheric CO2 increased by 20 ppm over 8,000 yearsprior to industrialization while its concentration has risen by

over 110ppm since 1750.



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Power generation Wastes Livestock

Land use change Agriculture Deforestation

Sources of Carbon Dioxide

Source: IPCC 2007 WG1: AR4, Rodel Lasco, Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC experts


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Without greenhouse effect earths temperature will be

30deg cooler and is not habitable

Problem is rapid rise of GHGsin atmosphere well above

natural levels due to human-induced emission of CO2,

methane, CFCsand its replacements


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What isClimate Change

refers to a change of climateattributed directly or indirectly tohuman activity in addition tonatural climate


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Source: Lourdes Tibig 2009, Climate Change expert MDG-F:1656


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Evidence points to an increase in temperature over the last 140 years

The upper graph shows the steady increase of global surface temperature from 1860.

Global annual

surface

temperature

has increased

steadily since

1861


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Observed Mean Annual Maximum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines

Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)

0.947774998

y = 0.0062x - 0.1747

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 1 6

Year

TemperatureAnomaly(C)

Anomaly

5 year running mean

Linear (5 year running mean)

An increase of 0.3472

Cfrom 1951-2006



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Observed Mean Annual Minimum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines

Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)

y = 0.0159x - 0.3266

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 1 6

Year

TemperatureAnomaly(C)

Anomaly

5 year running mean

Linear (5 year running mean)

An increase of 0.8904

Cfrom 1951-2006, increase in minimum temperatures almost 3 times

increase in maximum temperatures



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Annual Number Tropical Cyclones and five-year running mean

y = -0.0104x + 19.755

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003

Year

Frequencyoftrop

icalCyclones

Number of Tropical Cyclones 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Number of Tropical Cyclones) Linear (Number of Tropical Cyclones)

Average of 19to 20tropical cyclones per year:no trends in number of occurrences in the PAR



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Hot indices (hot days and warm nights)

*Tibi g, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extr eme daily temperatures and 24-hr rain fall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA

Significant increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights.


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Rainfall (wet indices)

RAIN DAYSTOTAL

RAINFALL

*Tibi g, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extr eme daily temperatures and 24-hr rain fal l in the Phil . CAB Techni cal Report, PAGASA


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(Sources: GRIDArendal/ Pachauri,2003)

With bearing oneconomy

Climate ChangeImpacts


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Food security

o Increase in incidence of diseases in animals and

crops

o Availability of foodcould decline;

o Prices will riseas a result;

o Employment opportunities may become less;

o More people could face hungerand starvation

Impacts on Agriculture


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Impact on Livestock

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

A temperature rise exceeding about 3.5

C could

result in the extinction of 40-70% of the world's

assessed species.

Stunted growth, lesser productivity and reducedfertility.

Swine and poultry could be exposed to higher

incidences of heat stress, thus influencing

productivity Increase in disease transmission by faster growth

rates of pathogens in the environment and more

efficient and abundant vectors (such as insects).

Low food quality and easily spoiled in storage.


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Dramatic change in distribution and

quantities of fish and sea foods.

Coral bleaching on massive scales never seen beforedue to warming of sea water associated with El Nio

episodes.

Decreased calcification in corals, mollusks and other

shell-forming organisms (softening of shells). Trigger algal blooms that cause red tides as well as

fish kills.

Release of methane hydrate in ocean bottoms which

is 56 times more powerful than CO2.

Impact on Fisheries



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Could destroy marine and coastal ecosystems

Temperature increases beyond 1.5-2.5 degrees Ccould cause

Coral bleaching due to CO2 acidification

Massive coral bleaching in 1998


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Could exacerbate water scarcity

Streamflow

Increase average annual runoff and water availabilityin some wet areas by 10-40%

Source: photo Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert


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Exacerbates water pollution (thermal, bacterial, organic,

nitrates, organic carbon)Source: Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert


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Source: Rex Victor Cruz, IPCC expert


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Impact on Fresh Water


Salination of freshwater; water

table/aquifer depletion; increased runoff

and pollution of freshwater sources.

Alter the quantity and quality of available

fresh water and increase the frequency

and duration of floods, droughts, and

heavy precipitation events.Affect the quality of drinking water and

impact public health.


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Could diminish Forest cover

Temperature increases and change in rainfall could lead to

oShrinking or expansion of forest cover

oMigration to higher elevationoForest loss due to fires and pests


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Preserve existing forests andencourage reforestation


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Slow population growth


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Encourage environmental

treaties/laws


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More efficient energy use


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Necessity for a change in lifestyle

Promote cycling, walkingTake a bus or the mass rail transport

for longer trips

Leave the car at home

Turn offs lights, aircons, electric fans, televisions

and computers when these are not in use

Use energy efficient electrical fixtures


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CLIM TE CH NGE

IN THE

PHILIPPINES

http://prsd.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/legazpi/

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The climate trends were analyzed using available observed data from 1951 to 2009 with the average

for the period of 1971 2000as the reference value.

The key findings are summarized as follows:

There has been an increase in annual mean temperature by 0.57 C;

In terms of maximum and minimum temperatures, the increases have been

0.35 C and 0.94 C;

Tropical cyclone (within PAR) show that an average of 20 tropical

cyclones form and/or cross the PAR per year , there still is no indication of

increase in the frequency, but with a very slight increase in the number of

tropical cyclones with maximum sustained winds of greater than 150kph and

above (typhoon category) being exhibited during El Nino years; and

Extreme daily temperatures and extreme daily rainfall indicate

significant increase in number of hot days but decrease of cool nights, and

those of rainfall (extreme rainfall intensity and frequency) are not clear, both

in magnitude (by what amounts) and direction (whether increasing or

decreasing), with very little spatial coherence.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

For future climates in 2020 and 2050

The key findings are:

All areas of the Philippines will get warmer, more so in the

relatively warmer summer months;

Annual mean temperatures (average of maximum and

minimum temperatures) in all areas in the country are expected to

rise by 0.9 C to 1.1 C in 2020 and by 1.8 C to 2.2 C in2050;

Seasonal rainfall change:

reduction in rainfall in most provinces during the summer

season (MAM) making the usually dry season drier,

while rainfall increases are likely in most areas of Luzon and

Visayas during the southwest monsoon (JJA) and the SON

seasons, making these seasons still wetter,

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The northeast monsoon (DJF) season rainfall is projected to

increase, particularly for areas characterized by Type II climatewith potential for flooding enhanced;

During the southwest monsoon season (JJA), larger increases

in rainfall is expected in provinces in Luzon (0.9% to 63%) and

Visayas (2% to 22%) but generally decreasing trends in most of theprovinces in Mindanao in 2050;

However, projections for extreme events in 2020 and 2050

show that hot temperatures (indicated by the number of days withmaximum temperature exceeding 35 C) will continue to become

more frequent, number of dry days (days with less than 2.5mm of

rain) will increase in all parts of the country and heavy daily

rainfall (exceeding 300mm) events will also continue to increase in

number in Luzon and Visayas.

How the climate change scenarios were developed?


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How the climate change scenarios were developed?

As has been previously stated, climate change scenarios are developed using climate models

(UNFCCC). These models use mathematical representations of the climate system, simulating

the physical and dynamical processes that determine global/regional climate. They range from

simple, one-dimensional models to more complex ones such as global climate models (known asCMs), which model the atmosphere and oceans, and their interactions with land surfaces. They

also model change on a regional scale (referred to as regional climate models), typically

estimating change in areas in grid boxes that are approximately several hundred kilometers

wide. It should be noted that CMs/RCMs provide only an average change in climate for each

grid box, although realistically climates can vary considerably within each grid.

Climate models used to develop climate change scenarios are run using different forcings such

as the changing greenhouse gas concentrations. These emission scenarios known as the SRES

(Special Report on Emission Scenarios) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) to give the range of plausible future climate. These mission scenarios cover a

range of demographic, societal, economic and technological storylines. They are also sometimesreferred to as emission pathways .


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Climate change is driven by factors such as changes in the atmospheric concentration of

greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and radiation, and their combinations, which

then result in what is called radiative forcing (positive or warming and negative or

cooling effect). We do not know how these different drivers will specifically affect thefuture climate, but the model simulation will provide estimates of its Plausible ranges

A number of climate models have been used in developing climate scenarios. The capacity

to do climate modeling usually resides in advanced meteorological agencies and in

international research laboratories for climate modeling such as the Hadley Centre for

Climate Prediction and Research of the UK Met Office (in the United kingdom), theNational Center for Atmospheric Research and the Geophysical Fluid

Dynamics Laboratory (in the United States), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

(in Germany), the

Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (in Canada), the Commonwealth

Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (in Australia), the Meteorological

Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency (in Japan), and numerous others.These centers have been developing their climate models and continuously generate new

versions of these models in order address the limitations and uncertainties inherent in

models.

Th li t l ifi ti i th Phili i


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The climate classification in the Philippines


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- REGION I

- REGION II

- REGION III

- REGION IV-A

- REGION IV-B

- REGION V

- REGION VI

- REGION VII

- REGION VIII

- REGION IX

- REGION X

- REGION XI

- REGION XII

- REGION XIII

- ARMM

- CAR

- NCR


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Climate Projections in 2020 and 2050 in Provinces in Region 2


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j gThe projected seasonal temperature increase, seasonal rainfall change and frequency of

extreme events in 2020 and 2050 under the medium-range emission scenario in the provinces in

Region 2 are presented in Table a, Table b and Table c, respectively.

To use the tables and arrive at values of seasonal mean temperature and seasonal rainfall in

2020 and 2050 in any of the provinces, the projections are added to the observed values(presented in each of the tables).

Climate Projections in 2020 and 2050 in Provinces in CARThe projected seasonal temperature increase seasonal rainfall change and frequency of extreme events in


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The projected seasonal temperature increase, seasonal rainfall change and frequency of extreme events in

2020 and 2050 under the medium-range emission scenario in the provinces in CAR are presented in Table a,

Table b and Table c, respectively.

To use the tables and arrive at values of seasonal mean temperature and seasonal rainfall in 2020 and 2050

in any of the provinces, the projections are added to the observed values (presented in each of the tables).


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Legaspi website - prsd.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/legazpi/ Legaspi Stn (052)-820-6126 / 4814471/

4814454 / 4355702

Voice Server : 433-ULAN (433-8526) Predict: http://fmon.asti.dost.gov.ph/weather/predict/

Project NOAH

http://202.90.128.12/predict/stations.php

Weather Forecasting Center (Manila) - 927-1541;926-4259; 928-2031; 926-4258; 926-7695

CONT CT US
http://fmon.asti.dost.gov.ph/weather/predict/http://202.90.128.12/predict/stations.phphttp://202.90.128.12/predict/stations.phphttp://fmon.asti.dost.gov.ph/weather/predict/http://fmon.asti.dost.gov.ph/weather/predict/

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1-CC For CCA ILOC CAGVAL CAR 090313.pdf