11

Assessing Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: An Assessing Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: An Impact-based Method and Application to Impact-based Method and Application to

Drought in Washington StateDrought in Washington State

Matthew FontaineMatthew FontaineHerrera Environmental Consultants, Inc.Herrera Environmental Consultants, Inc.

Water Resources Engineer Water Resources Engineer (Formerly Masters Candidate,(Formerly Masters Candidate,

University of WashingtonUniversity of WashingtonWater Center)Water Center)

Anne C. SteinemannAnne C. SteinemannUniversity of Washington University of Washington

Professor, Department of Civil & Environmental EngineeringProfessor, Department of Civil & Environmental EngineeringProfessor, Evans School of Public AffairsProfessor, Evans School of Public Affairs

Adjunct Professor, College of Forest ResourcesAdjunct Professor, College of Forest ResourcesPrincipal, Climate Impacts GroupPrincipal, Climate Impacts Group

The Water Center

22

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline Motivation Motivation

Assess drought impacts in WashingtonAssess drought impacts in Washington Improve vulnerability assessment methodologyImprove vulnerability assessment methodology

ObjectivesObjectives Methods – Process is importantMethods – Process is important ResultsResults

Drought impactsDrought impacts VulnerabilityVulnerability IndicatorsIndicators Adaptation Adaptation

Improve state drought planningImprove state drought planning

Vulnerability Assessment Method

33

MotivationMotivation

44

Drought Study Motivation Drought Study Motivation Agricultural production is $6B per yearAgricultural production is $6B per year Irrigated crops are 70% of harvest valueIrrigated crops are 70% of harvest value Agriculture employs over 183,000 peopleAgriculture employs over 183,000 people ESA fish populationsESA fish populations Municipal water suppliers lose millions Municipal water suppliers lose millions

during droughtduring drought Hydropower generation decreases and Hydropower generation decreases and

power costs increasepower costs increase Some recreation industries affectedSome recreation industries affected

55

Washington Climate Change Washington Climate Change Impacts AssessmentImpacts Assessment

Increased drought frequency and severityIncreased drought frequency and severity April 1 snowpack is projected to decrease.April 1 snowpack is projected to decrease. Yakima basin water shortages are projected to Yakima basin water shortages are projected to

increase.increase. Thermal stresses and migration barrier are Thermal stresses and migration barrier are

projected to increase for salmon.projected to increase for salmon.

(Littell et al. 2009)

66

Vulnerability Assessment Motivation Vulnerability Assessment Motivation

Many local natural hazardsMany local natural hazards Many sectors vulnerable to each hazardMany sectors vulnerable to each hazard Limited resourcesLimited resources Numeric indicators may not be Numeric indicators may not be

comparable between sectorscomparable between sectors Hazards increase with increasing Hazards increase with increasing

population and changing climatepopulation and changing climate

77

Preparing for Climate Change. A Guidebook Preparing for Climate Change. A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governmentsfor Local, Regional, and State Governments

Milestone 1 – Initiate your climate resiliency effortMilestone 1 – Initiate your climate resiliency effort Milestone 2 – Climate resiliency studyMilestone 2 – Climate resiliency study

Vulnerability assessmentVulnerability assessment Risk assessmentRisk assessment

Milestone 3 – Set goals and develop a planMilestone 3 – Set goals and develop a plan Milestone 4 – Implement your planMilestone 4 – Implement your plan Milestone 5 – Measure progress and update planMilestone 5 – Measure progress and update plan

(Snover et al. 2007)

88

ObjectivesObjectives

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Study ObjectivesStudy Objectives

Investigate four aspects of drought Investigate four aspects of drought Impacts of past droughtsImpacts of past droughts Vulnerability of different sectors and regionsVulnerability of different sectors and regions Indicators to monitor and forecast droughtIndicators to monitor and forecast drought Adaptations to reduce drought impactsAdaptations to reduce drought impacts

Develop improved vulnerability assessment Develop improved vulnerability assessment methodologymethodology

1010

MethodsMethods

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Investigation: Methods and SectorsInvestigation: Methods and Sectors Established project advisory team Established project advisory team Conducted over 60 interviews covering major Conducted over 60 interviews covering major

regions and sectorsregions and sectors

IntervieweesInterviewees: : AgricultureAgriculture Municipal and industrial water suppliersMunicipal and industrial water suppliers FisheryFishery Power Power Recreation Recreation

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Interview QuestionsInterview Questions

What do you do and where do you get What do you do and where do you get your water? your water?

How have you been affected by past water How have you been affected by past water shortages ($$$) ? shortages ($$$) ?

What indicators do you monitor?What indicators do you monitor? What do you do to adapt in the face of What do you do to adapt in the face of

drought (decision making process)?drought (decision making process)? What information and resources can What information and resources can

improve your adaptive capacity?improve your adaptive capacity?

1313

Value of This Approach - ExampleValue of This Approach - Example

Yakima Basin Junior Water UsersYakima Basin Junior Water Users Drought decision makingDrought decision making

January 1 through early MarchJanuary 1 through early March Information and indicatorsInformation and indicators

Soil moisture (locally)Soil moisture (locally) Snow pack -- SnotelSnow pack -- Snotel Reservoir levelsReservoir levels Climate forecastsClimate forecasts US Bureau of Reclamation – Proration US Bureau of Reclamation – Proration

Estimate in MarchEstimate in March

1414

WY 2009 WY 2009 SnowpackSnowpack

USBR Press Release (www.usbr.gov) : March 9, 2009

"The March 2009 forecast indicates a full water supply for all water users." Chuck Garner, Yakima Project River Operations Supervisor

May 7, 2009"The May 2009 forecast indicates a full water supply for all water users."

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.govhttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov

Average Snow Water Equivalent

WY2009 Snow Water Equivalent

1515

Investigation: Regions and Investigation: Regions and interview distribution interview distribution

1616

Interviewees – AgricultureInterviewees – AgricultureDrought Response Drought Response

Action Team Action Team WA Dairy FederationWA Dairy Federation WA Hop Growers Assn.WA Hop Growers Assn. WA Cattlemen’s Assn.WA Cattlemen’s Assn. WA Asparagus Comm.WA Asparagus Comm. Washington Assn. of Washington Assn. of

Wheat GrowersWheat Growers WA Assn. of Landscape WA Assn. of Landscape

ProfessionalsProfessionals Irrigation District Irrigation District

ManagersManagers

Individual FarmersIndividual Farmers Junior Water Rights Junior Water Rights Senior Water Rights Senior Water Rights Surface water irrigation Surface water irrigation Groundwater IrrigationGroundwater Irrigation Dryland crops Dryland crops OrchardsOrchards VineyardsVineyards Row CropsRow Crops Berry farmersBerry farmers Green Industry Green Industry

(landscape plants)(landscape plants) Field SupervisorsField Supervisors

1717

Interviewees - FisheriesInterviewees - Fisheries

WA Dept. Fish and Wildlife Fisheries and WA Dept. Fish and Wildlife Fisheries and Habitat BiologistsHabitat Biologists

Ski Area OperatorsSki Area Operators Pacific Northwest Ski Areas Association Pacific Northwest Ski Areas Association W. WA Golf Course AssociationW. WA Golf Course Association

Interviewees - RecreationInterviewees - Recreation

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Interviewees - PowerInterviewees - Power

Bonneville Power AdministrationBonneville Power Administration Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference

CommitteeCommittee

Seattle Public UtilitySeattle Public Utility Everett Public WorksEverett Public Works Skagit PUDSkagit PUD

Interviewees – Municipal SupplyInterviewees – Municipal Supply

1919

Interviewees – Multi-sectorInterviewees – Multi-sector

WRIA leadsWRIA leads Watershed Watershed

managersmanagers US Bureau of US Bureau of

ReclamationReclamation Water use Water use

coordinatorscoordinators Washington State Department of Ecology

2020

ImpactsImpacts

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Primary findings of impact Primary findings of impact assessment assessment

Agriculture: 2005Agriculture: 2005 Water supply was inadequate to meet crop Water supply was inadequate to meet crop

demandsdemands Junior users received 42% supply in 2005 Junior users received 42% supply in 2005 Entire fruit crops were lostEntire fruit crops were lost Dryland production was reduced by 70% Dryland production was reduced by 70%

in some casesin some cases

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Junior Water Users Junior Water Users

Below normal supply Below normal supply in 11 of last 35 yearsin 11 of last 35 years

Below 50% supply in Below 50% supply in 2 of last 7 years2 of last 7 years

Yakima Basin Storage Alliance

Yakima Basin Project - Percent Supply for Junior Water Users (Normal Supply is

Approximately 3 Acre-feet per Acre)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Year

Perc

ent

of

Entit

lem

ents

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Dryland Farmers Dryland Farmers Yields reduced Yields reduced

by up to 70%by up to 70% Many drought Many drought

related causesrelated causes Wasted fertilizer Wasted fertilizer

expensesexpenses

http://www.lindstation.wsu.edu/photohttp://nugeworthy.blogspot.com/2005/04/spring-snow-on-palouse.html

http://cahenews.wsu.edu/WheatDryland.htm

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Primary Findings of Impact Primary Findings of Impact Assessment Assessment

Environment - FisheriesEnvironment - Fisheries Increased prespawn and juvenile mortalityIncreased prespawn and juvenile mortality Reduced habitat and decreased water Reduced habitat and decreased water

qualityquality Increased cost to fisheries agenciesIncreased cost to fisheries agencies Increased scouring and dewatering of Increased scouring and dewatering of

reddsredds

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The Okanogan RiverThe Okanogan River

Lake OsoyoosSimilkameen River

Okanogan River

Warm reservoir Warm reservoir spill waterspill water

Tributary draw Tributary draw downdown

Prespawn Prespawn mortality of mortality of hundreds of hundreds of Summer Chinook Summer Chinook SalmonSalmon

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Primary Findings of Impact Primary Findings of Impact AssessmentAssessment

M&I M&I $3M -$15M in lost revenue/increased costs$3M -$15M in lost revenue/increased costs

Hydropower SectorHydropower Sector Lost generation in 2001 Drought: Several Lost generation in 2001 Drought: Several

Billion Billion

RecreationRecreation 1 million fewer ski area visits in 2005 (60% 1 million fewer ski area visits in 2005 (60%

reduction)reduction)

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Higher Higher percentage of percentage of generation lost generation lost to fish flowsto fish flows

Hundreds of Hundreds of millions lost millions lost during droughtduring drought

Impact to the Hydropower Sector in 2001Impact to the Hydropower Sector in 2001

http://www.nww.usace.army.mil/U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

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Hydropower ImpactsHydropower Impacts

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

4.0E+07 6.0E+07 8.0E+07 1.0E+08 1.2E+08 1.4E+08 1.6E+08

Volume (acre•ft)

Ge

ne

rati

on

(M

W)

Critical Water Year 2001 Water Year (Interpolated)

Average Water Year Columbia Generation per Volume

10496 MW 11780 MW

15800 MW

Average Water Year

Critical Water Year

2001 Water Year

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Hydropower Impacts EstimationHydropower Impacts Estimation 125$/MW hour x Generation Reduction x 125$/MW hour x Generation Reduction x

TimeTime ~$5.8 billion reduced generation in NW~$5.8 billion reduced generation in NW ~$3.5 billion reduced generation in WA~$3.5 billion reduced generation in WA Component CostsComponent Costs

$2.3 billion in replacement power purchased $2.3 billion in replacement power purchased by BPAby BPA

Aluminum plant closuresAluminum plant closures $25 million paying Columbia Basin Project $25 million paying Columbia Basin Project

irrigators not to pumpirrigators not to pump Increased power ratesIncreased power rates

3030

Vulnerability Assessment MethodVulnerability Assessment Method

3131

Assessing Vulnerability to DroughtAssessing Vulnerability to Drought

Conceptual Model of VulnerabilityConceptual Model of Vulnerability

Exposure Sensitivity

Potential Impact

AdaptiveCapacity

Vulnerability

Adapted from D. Schroter et al. 2004

3232

Vulnerability Assessment Method Vulnerability Assessment Method (VAM)(VAM)

Assess each componentAssess each component Based on interview data and heuristics Based on interview data and heuristics Using 1-5 Likert ScaleUsing 1-5 Likert Scale

Determine net vulnerability scores Determine net vulnerability scores Calculate scores within sectors and regionsCalculate scores within sectors and regions

Vulnerability = ( Exposure + Sensitivity ) / Adaptive Capacity

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Assessing Vulnerability to Drought Assessing Vulnerability to Drought – fix this slide– fix this slide

Component Interview Data Collected Ranking Score

Exposure

Received less than 50 % of normal water entitlements during two of the past five years. Water shutdown comes at inopportune times for crops.

Extreme 5

Sensitivity

Raises primarily perennial tree fruit that commonly produce low quality fruit under sub-normal supply. Crops are very costly to replace if damaged.

High 4

Adaptive Capacity

No backup/emergency water supplies and less than ten percent of acreage in annual crops (limited ability to spread water).

Low 2

Total Score     4.5

3434

Highly Vulnerable Sectors – update Highly Vulnerable Sectors – update scoresscores

High VulnerabilityHigh Vulnerability Dryland farmers Dryland farmers 4.0-4.54.0-4.5 Fisheries (central regions) Fisheries (central regions) 4.0-4.5 4.0-4.5 Ski areas operators Ski areas operators 4.04.0 Junior water users (proratable) Junior water users (proratable) 3.5-4.53.5-4.5 Green industry Green industry 3.5-4.03.5-4.0

3535

Medium and Low Vulnerability Medium and Low Vulnerability SectorsSectors

MediumMedium Municipal suppliersMunicipal suppliers Irrigated GroundwaterIrrigated Groundwater Cattle ranchersCattle ranchers

LowLow Senior rightsSenior rights Dairy farmersDairy farmers Wine grapesWine grapes Hydropower Hydropower Golf coursesGolf courses

3636

Vulnerability of the Green IndustryVulnerability of the Green Industry

Vulnerability derived from consumer Vulnerability derived from consumer perception of droughtperception of drought

State declaration of drought may State declaration of drought may reduce salesreduce sales

Media can increase impactsMedia can increase impacts

3737

Vulnerability of Fisheries on the East Vulnerability of Fisheries on the East Side of the Cascades Side of the Cascades

Several ESA listed Several ESA listed species species

Vulnerable to low Vulnerable to low flowsflows

Spawning, rearing, Spawning, rearing, and out-migrationand out-migration

High agricultural High agricultural withdrawalwithdrawal

High pollutant loadsHigh pollutant loads Instream Flow Instream Flow

CommissionCommission

3838

IndicatorsIndicators

3939

IndicatorsIndicators

Yakima Basin Junior Water UsersYakima Basin Junior Water Users Proration estimate from USBRProration estimate from USBR SnowpackSnowpack Forecasts Forecasts

Dryland farmersDryland farmers Soil moistureSoil moisture Forecasts – short term in fall, long term in springForecasts – short term in fall, long term in spring

Ski IndustrySki Industry Forecasts – 2-3 month forecasts in Oct. and Nov.Forecasts – 2-3 month forecasts in Oct. and Nov.

4040

IndicatorsIndicators

Other GroupsOther Groups Reservoir levelsReservoir levels Stream flowStream flow Cumulative precipitationCumulative precipitation Long term temp outlook (WA and CA)Long term temp outlook (WA and CA) Subscription forecastsSubscription forecasts ENSOENSO

Non-hydrologic indicatorsNon-hydrologic indicators Fish run sizeFish run size Market forcesMarket forces

4141

Adaptive CapacityAdaptive Capacity

4242

Drought Responses and Drought Responses and AdaptationsAdaptations

Junior water usersJunior water users Water law changes and educationWater law changes and education Conveyance inefficiencies can be reducedConveyance inefficiencies can be reduced Earlier accurate supply estimates Earlier accurate supply estimates Increased storageIncreased storage

Dryland farmersDryland farmers Farming practices can be altered Farming practices can be altered Improved forecasts enable better decision Improved forecasts enable better decision

makingmaking

4343

Adapting to Reduce Drought Adapting to Reduce Drought Impacts: Dungeness River Impacts: Dungeness River

Mean Mean annual annual flow 380 flow 380 cfs cfs (USGS)(USGS)

4444

Adapting to Reduce Drought Adapting to Reduce Drought Impacts: Dungeness River Impacts: Dungeness River

Low stream flows in Low stream flows in 20052005

Cooperation between Cooperation between users minimizes users minimizes impact to agricultureimpact to agriculture

Ditch riders used to Ditch riders used to communicate with communicate with water users water users

Coordinated shutdown Coordinated shutdown allowed fish passageallowed fish passage

UC Davis, Purdue

4545

Drought Responses and Drought Responses and AdaptationsAdaptations

Green IndustryGreen Industry Localized supply forecasts would be Localized supply forecasts would be

beneficialbeneficialMunicipal and IndustrialMunicipal and Industrial Rule curve may be managed dynamicallyRule curve may be managed dynamically System maintenance schedules can be System maintenance schedules can be

alteredaltered Improved forecasts would enable better Improved forecasts would enable better

managementmanagement

4646

Drought Responses and Drought Responses and AdaptationsAdaptations

FisheriesFisheries Fisheries agencies may purchase water rightsFisheries agencies may purchase water rights Monitoring and maintenance can be increasedMonitoring and maintenance can be increased Early drought declaration enables preparationEarly drought declaration enables preparation Smart storage projects supply multiuse waterSmart storage projects supply multiuse water

RecreationRecreation Ski areas may decrease labor forceSki areas may decrease labor force Forecasts inform hiring decisionsForecasts inform hiring decisions

4747

Drought Responses and Drought Responses and AdaptationsAdaptations

PowerPower Farmers may be paid not to irrigate Farmers may be paid not to irrigate Power can be purchased back from major Power can be purchased back from major

usersusers Improved supply and demand forecasts Improved supply and demand forecasts

enable better managementenable better management

4848

Common Themes: Tools for Common Themes: Tools for Reducing Drought Impacts Reducing Drought Impacts

Improved mid and long range forecasts Improved mid and long range forecasts Better current-conditions data for agricultureBetter current-conditions data for agriculture Regionally specific drought monitoring and Regionally specific drought monitoring and

planning toolsplanning tools Education programs for water usersEducation programs for water users Increased supply – multi-benefit storage Increased supply – multi-benefit storage

projectsprojects More streamlined water transfer systemMore streamlined water transfer system

4949

Improving State Drought PlanningImproving State Drought Planning

5050

State Drought PlanningState Drought Planning

Evaluate other state drought plans Evaluate other state drought plans and programsand programs

Investigate lessons learned from Investigate lessons learned from other statesother states

Analyze gaps in drought planning in Analyze gaps in drought planning in Washington StateWashington State

Identify potential improvementsIdentify potential improvements

5151

State Drought Plan ProjectState Drought Plan Project Interviewed drought coordinators in 19 Western Interviewed drought coordinators in 19 Western

Governors’ Association statesGovernors’ Association states Evaluated state drought plans and programsEvaluated state drought plans and programs

5252

State Drought Plan and Program State Drought Plan and Program AssessmentAssessment

Evaluate state drought plan and program Evaluate state drought plan and program componentscomponents

Monitoring – indicators, tools, and proceduresMonitoring – indicators, tools, and procedures Drought communication and declaration Drought communication and declaration

proceduresprocedures Impact and vulnerability assessmentImpact and vulnerability assessment Mitigation programsMitigation programs

5353

Recommendations For Improving Drought Recommendations For Improving Drought Preparedness in Washington StatePreparedness in Washington State

Develop clearly defined and regionally Develop clearly defined and regionally specific sets of indicators and triggersspecific sets of indicators and triggers

Hold monthly drought monitoring meetingsHold monthly drought monitoring meetings Implement a system for declaring drought Implement a system for declaring drought

in stagesin stages Enhance participation of local jurisdictions Enhance participation of local jurisdictions

in drought monitoring and declaration in drought monitoring and declaration Prioritize drought response and mitigation Prioritize drought response and mitigation

activities based on vulnerabilityactivities based on vulnerability

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AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements PI and Coauthor – Anne SteinemannPI and Coauthor – Anne Steinemann Project Advisory CommitteeProject Advisory Committee Washington Dept. of Ecology and Washington Washington Dept. of Ecology and Washington

Department of Community, Trade, and Economic Department of Community, Trade, and Economic Development through Contract No. 0511100008.Development through Contract No. 0511100008.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under Grant No. NA06OAR4310075; the Grant No. NA06OAR4310075; the

Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean JISAO under NOAA Cooperative Agreement No. Ocean JISAO under NOAA Cooperative Agreement No. NA17RJ1232, Contribution No. 1626; NA17RJ1232, Contribution No. 1626;

National Science Foundation under Grant No. CMS National Science Foundation under Grant No. CMS 98743919874391

Coauthor for drought plan work – Michael Hayes, NDMCCoauthor for drought plan work – Michael Hayes, NDMC

5555

Questions?Questions?

Matthew FontaineMatthew Fontainemfontaine@herrerainc.commfontaine@herrerainc.com

206-441-9080206-441-9080

Anne C. SteinemannAnne C. Steinemannacstein@u.washington.eduacstein@u.washington.edu

(206) 616-2661 (206) 616-2661

5656