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An Overview of NOAA’s Fire Weather Products and Services

A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board’s

Fire Weather Research Working Group

Eli JacksChief – Fire and Public Weather Services BranchOffice of Climate, Water and Weather Services

NOAA/NWS

October 1, 2007

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WGA Issues: June 2005 Policy Resolution

• An integrated fire weather research program is critical to effective forest management.

• NOAA Office of the Federal Coordinator should assess fire weather needs and set a framework for meeting them.

• New digital weather information and technology should be integrated into operational fire management and decision making

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Purpose

• Summarize NOAA’s Fire Weather Program.

• Summarize NOAA’s current activities in fire weather-related research.

• Discuss current research gaps as we see them and the associated potential for improved products and services.

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NOAA Fire Weather Services:Where We’ve Been

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NOAA Collaboration: The Interagency Structure

• National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC): - U.S. Forest Service - U.S. Bureau of Indian Affairs - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service - U.S. National Park Service - U.S. Bureau of Land Management - National Association of State Foresters - U.S. Fire Administration

• Other Partners: - U.S Geological Survey

- Environmental Protection Agency - States - Universities - Private Sector (ESRI)

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NOAA’s Site-SpecificFire Weather Services

• NOAA’s “Spot forecasts” support:

- Wild Fire Suppression - Prescribed fire ops.

• We average 16, 000 “Spot Forecasts” annually

• 19,000 forecasts in 2006

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NOAA’s National Fire Weather Services

• National Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning Program.

• Fire Weather Planning Forecasts.

• Over 12,000 Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches issued annually.

No Fire Weather Forecast Issued

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NOAA’s National Fire Weather Services

• Incident Meteorologists:On-site fire weather forecasters

– Extensive training in microscale/mesoscale Meteorology.

– Forecasts used to plan NIFC Incident Team and resource placement.

– Essential part of an Interagency fire management team.

– Dependent on mobile technology and meso/micro-scale research improvements.

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Range of IMET/ISS Services

Selendang AyuOil Spill…Dutch Harbor

Minneapolis Bridge Collapse

Texas/OklahomaStarted in December…IMETs there for 9 months!

Katrina ResponseIMETs present for 3 months

Democratic/RepublicanNational Conventions

Mt. RushmoreFireworks

Columbia ShuttleRecovery

Greensburg, KSTornado – 2 months

Sturgis, MississippiMotorcycle Rally

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INTRODUCTIONCurrent IMET Equipment Locations

PDT (2)

OTX (2)

MSO (2)

WRHSLC

BOI (3)

MTR

HNX (2)

SEW (2)

TWC

REV (2)STO (2)

SGX

MFR (2)

PSR

PIH

PQR (2)

EKA

FGZ

GGW

TFX

VEF

LOX

BYZ

LKN

AJK

AFC

AFG

MHX

BUF

CHS

RLX

ILN

BTV

PRH

LKZABQ

MAF

EPZJAN

FFC

TBW

PUB (2)

RIW

CYS

BOU

GJT (2)

JKL

MPX

PAH

Fire Weather (70)

MIA (Trainee)

MLB (Trainee)

HOU (Trainee)

HPC

SJT

RNK

MLB

MIA

TPA

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INTRODUCTIONVision: 234 NOAA Incident Support Specialists

PDT (2)

OTX (2)

MSO (2)

WRHSLC

BOI (3)

MTR

HNX (2)

SEW (2)

TWC

REV (2)STO (2)

SGX

MFR (2)

PSR

PIH

PQR (2)

EKA

FGZ

GGW

TFX

VEF

LOX

BYZ

LKN

MHX

BUF

CHS

RLX

ILN

BTV

PRH, HNLSRH

LKZABQ

MAF

EPZJAN

FFC

TBW

PUB

RIW (2)

KC

CYS

BOU

GJT (2)

JKL

MPX

PAH

Fire Weather (70)

Specialized NOAA HAZMAT (8)

Local response capability (163)

CLE

NEW

PHL

BOX

HGX

LOT

LWX

OKX

OAX

Guam, Pago Pago

STL

GFK

BIS

RAP

ABR

FSD

LBF

DDC TOPICT

OUNAMA

PWM

CAR

BHM

TLH

EYW

LSE

GRB

TVC

DTW

DLH

BNAMEM

ISN

UNV

PIT

RNK

AKQ

RAH

ILM

MLB

MOB

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Critical Research Needs To Support Operational Improvement

• Improved smoke dispersion and air quality forecasting.

• Advanced modeling and prediction efforts to improve:

a) Short-range forecasts of critical sensible elements.

b) Long-range forecasts for resource planning purposes.

c) Probabilistic and ensemble forecasts.

• Accelerated coupled modeling for Wildland-Urban Interface.

• Improved “Dry Lightning” guidance.

• Enhanced focus and coordination on local research efforts.

• Full utilization of high-resolution, UAS-obtained data.

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Critical Research Needs (cont’d): Smoke Dispersion and Air Quality

• NOAA/NWS Air Quality Forecast Program (Partnership with EPA): - Currently providing ozone predictions. - Experimentally testing smoke dispersion guidance. - Developmentally testing aerosol predictions as foundation for quantitative particulate matter predictions.

• NOAA Research: - Fire emissions estimation; advanced capabilities to understand and assess the transport, transformation, and fate of airborne species.

Research Needs:1) Develop quantitative predictions for airborne particulate matter.

2) Enhance use of observational data to predict smoke transport and AQ.

3) Improve forecast dispersion indices specific to fire weather needs.

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Critical Research Needs (cont’d): Short- and Long-Range Prediction

• NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Earth System Research Laboratory

- Mesoscale model forecasts for short range.

- Long range predictions.

- Ensemble and probabilistic techniques.

Research Needs:

1) Improve accuracy of forecasts in complex terrain (especially moisture).

2) Continue improving accuracy of ensemble and probabilistic forecasts.

3) Develop coupled fire/atmosphere models.

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Critical Research Needs (cont’d): Dry Lightning &Ensemble Guidance

• NOAA/Storm Prediction Center:

- Cloud-To-Ground lightning forecast guidance.

- Ensemble prediction of Red Flag weather conditions.

Research Needs:

1) Provide forecast guidance for the occurrence of “dry” lightning.

2) Probabilistic ensemble prediction for red flag prediction conditions.

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Critical Research Needs (cont’d): Coordinated Local Research

• NOAA Weather Forecast Offices:

- Use local climatology to tailor fire weather products and

services, and develop case studies.

- Account for local burn scarring for debris flow response.

- Interact with USFS Research Laboratories on ad hoc basis.

- Provide smoke dispersion indices, air stagnation warnings.

Research Needs:

1) Better understand local effects.

2) Increase understanding of relationship between burn scarring, and debris flow and flash flood potential.

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Critical Research Needs (cont’d): Use of UAS Observed Data

• NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory

- Optimal use of UAS data:

* Verification for modelers.

* Observations for IMETs.

Research Needs:

1) Verification studies to validate fire scale weather and fire behavior prediction models.

2) Integration of real-time UAS fire mapping and environmental sensing data into operations.

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NOAA Collaboration with Wildland Fire Research Groups

• Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) - Interagency partnership between DOI and DOA. - Proposals peer reviewed annually, $14M available. - Focus on fire behavior, AQ, smoke, climate, weather.

• Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke (FCAMMS)

- Established by the National Fire Plan. - Focus on fire weather, behavior, danger and smoke. - Collaborates with NOAA and EPA.

• Forest Service Fire Science Research Laboratories - Experts on fire behavior and danger models. - Work ad hoc with NOAA WFOs.

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NOAA’s View

• Our hydrometeorological expertise is critical to land management partners and researchers who focus on fire danger and fire behavior.

• Improved hydrometeorological technology transfer is essential for the future success of managing wildland fire.

• The scope of research activities in which we participate is growing - and of increasing importance.