1 Accessing Census Bureau Population Estimates for the United States Ryan Burson Population Division U.S. Census Bureau July 16, 2014

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Accessing Census Bureau Population

Estimates for the United States

Ryan Burson

Population Division

U.S. Census Bureau

July 16, 2014

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Overview

What do we mean by “estimates?” What estimates do we provide? Why do we produce them? How are they produced? When are they available? Where can you find them? How do the estimates differ from American Community

Survey estimates?

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What Do We Mean by “Estimates?”

• The official measures of population and housing units between censuses

• Based on the previous decennial census• Produced using administrative records data• Made for prior dates, usually 6 to 12 months earlier• Monthly and annual (July 1)

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What Estimates Data do We Provide?

Postcensal (current vintage) Historical (previous vintages) Intercensal Evaluation

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Specific Estimates We Provide

Estimate Type U.S. State County Puerto Rico Puerto Rico Municipios

Metro/Micro Statistical

AreasCities and

Towns

Total Resident Population X X X X X X X

Components of Change (Births, Deaths, Net Migration)

X X X X X

Population Characteristics (Age, Sex, Race, Hispanic Origin)

X X X X X

Monthly Population (Five Universes*) X

Housing Units X X X

* Resident, Resident Plus Armed Forces Overseas, Civilian, Civilian Institutionalized, Household

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Federal mandate (U.S.C. Title 13) Data Uses

– Allocation of federal funds– Controls for federal surveys

• Current Population Survey (CPS)• American Community Survey (ACS)

– Program planning for public and private services

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How Do We Produce Population Estimates?

National, state, county population– Cohort-component method

P2 = P1 + B - D + NM

where : P1 = Population at time 1

P2 = Population at time 2B = BirthsD = DeathsNM = Net migration

Subcounty population (cities and towns)– Distributive housing unit method

County population is distributed to subcounty parts based on updated estimates of housing units.

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When Are Estimates Data Available?

Schedule for Vintage 2013 EstimatesRelease Date ProductDecember 30, 2013 January 23, 2014

National, state, Puerto Rico: Population totals and components of change

March 27, 2014 County, Puerto Rico municipio, and metropolitan/micropolitan areas: Population totals and components of change

May 22, 2014 City and town (incorporated place, minor civil division): Population totalsNational, state, and county: Housing units totals

June 26, 2014 National, state, county, and Puerto Rico: Population by age, sex, race, Hispanic origin

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Where Can You Find Estimates Data?factfinder2.census.gov

Where Can You Find Estimates Data?www.census.gov/popest

Vintage 2013 Estimates



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Historical Estimates





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Intercensal Estimates

• A special type of historical estimates we produce once a decade.

• Are considered more accurate than previous postcensal estimates for the same years.

• Annual estimates are controlled to the beginning and ending decennial census counts for the decade.

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Intercensal Estimates2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

BOTH SEXES 33,871,653 33,987,977 34,479,458 34,871,843 35,253,159 35,574,576 35,827,943 36,021,202 36,250,311 36,604,337 36,961,229 37,253,956 37,349,363.Under 5 years 2,486,975 2,490,848 2,489,298 2,492,281 2,517,741 2,541,765 2,555,615 2,539,421 2,545,743 2,561,061 2,544,721 2,531,333 2,532,142.5 to 9 years 2,725,881 2,717,425 2,671,134 2,607,616 2,548,508 2,486,084 2,426,913 2,408,374 2,398,296 2,423,440 2,465,467 2,505,839 2,514,416.10 to 14 years 2,570,829 2,587,669 2,668,867 2,739,123 2,781,873 2,799,010 2,775,085 2,734,680 2,681,413 2,640,937 2,606,631 2,590,930 2,597,792.15 to 19 years 2,450,891 2,459,982 2,484,581 2,515,883 2,559,499 2,616,866 2,683,940 2,743,849 2,793,601 2,823,230 2,834,241 2,823,940 2,819,014.20 to 24 years 2,381,282 2,402,521 2,500,519 2,567,429 2,605,156 2,636,763 2,648,417 2,645,442 2,658,718 2,685,532 2,725,786 2,765,949 2,776,676.25 to 29 years 2,543,531 2,538,599 2,511,761 2,503,790 2,514,926 2,552,577 2,598,001 2,657,935 2,692,305 2,729,493 2,744,863 2,744,409 2,745,869.30 to 34 years 2,685,528 2,691,610 2,722,640 2,721,499 2,696,223 2,648,724 2,572,421 2,512,058 2,488,229 2,497,578 2,534,696 2,573,468 2,584,202.35 to 39 years 2,814,747 2,812,409 2,786,905 2,744,578 2,710,998 2,681,027 2,682,400 2,689,290 2,674,758 2,650,671 2,614,976 2,573,579 2,567,473.40 to 44 years 2,670,605 2,681,664 2,729,412 2,755,721 2,774,875 2,793,165 2,766,179 2,719,455 2,664,103 2,628,234 2,599,362 2,609,131 2,614,454.45 to 49 years 2,331,789 2,345,152 2,411,423 2,484,389 2,546,721 2,584,689 2,630,116 2,658,317 2,671,568 2,683,057 2,702,241 2,689,819 2,687,313.50 to 54 years 1,999,827 2,021,350 2,122,855 2,137,942 2,188,695 2,244,577 2,296,710 2,351,923 2,415,918 2,475,459 2,518,202 2,562,552 2,572,712.55 to 59 years 1,467,261 1,477,507 1,540,553 1,676,464 1,763,722 1,854,291 1,952,482 2,037,929 2,043,625 2,094,639 2,156,126 2,204,296 2,216,679.60 to 64 years 1,146,851 1,152,792 1,187,864 1,233,023 1,298,841 1,351,654 1,400,411 1,449,951 1,574,798 1,654,246 1,749,424 1,832,197 1,850,931.65 to 69 years 984,539 984,993 993,690 1,008,072 1,033,339 1,057,084 1,078,678 1,099,377 1,140,443 1,204,606 1,261,765 1,303,558 1,312,332.70 to 74 years 903,278 905,056 904,187 899,390 896,323 893,251 893,815 893,496 905,608 928,138 954,464 971,778 977,105.75 to 79 years 779,347 782,675 785,430 783,379 781,302 771,676 772,166 765,946 762,259 761,030 763,593 766,971 767,471.80 to 84 years 502,832 507,401 531,112 554,814 573,411 590,328 601,355 600,752 601,524 602,079 599,827 603,239 605,612.85 years and over 425,660 428,324 437,227 446,450 461,006 471,045 493,239 513,007 537,402 560,907 584,844 600,968 607,170..Under 18 years 9,249,835 9,267,089 9,325,466 9,365,142 9,404,594 9,418,497 9,405,565 9,370,884 9,335,620 9,321,621 9,294,501 9,295,040 9,309,727

.Under 5 years 2,486,975 2,490,848 2,489,298 2,492,281 2,517,741 2,541,765 2,555,615 2,539,421 2,545,743 2,561,061 2,544,721 2,531,333 2,532,142

.5 to 13 years 4,802,459 4,810,671 4,838,087 4,827,315 4,795,829 4,720,416 4,636,753 4,582,874 4,533,284 4,522,381 4,531,633 4,561,764 4,578,970

.14 to 17 years 1,960,401 1,965,570 1,998,081 2,045,546 2,091,024 2,156,316 2,213,197 2,248,589 2,256,593 2,238,179 2,218,147 2,201,943 2,198,615.18 to 64 years 21,026,162 21,112,439 21,502,346 21,814,596 22,103,184 22,372,695 22,583,125 22,777,740 22,967,455 23,225,956 23,502,235 23,712,402 23,769,946

.18 to 24 years 3,366,023 3,391,356 3,488,933 3,557,190 3,608,183 3,661,991 3,684,405 3,700,882 3,742,151 3,812,579 3,882,345 3,922,951 3,930,313

.25 to 44 years 10,714,411 10,724,282 10,750,718 10,725,588 10,697,022 10,675,493 10,619,001 10,578,738 10,519,395 10,505,976 10,493,897 10,500,587 10,511,998

.45 to 64 years 6,945,728 6,996,801 7,262,695 7,531,818 7,797,979 8,035,211 8,279,719 8,498,120 8,705,909 8,907,401 9,125,993 9,288,864 9,327,635.65 years and over 3,595,656 3,608,449 3,651,646 3,692,105 3,745,381 3,783,384 3,839,253 3,872,578 3,947,236 4,056,760 4,164,493 4,246,514 4,269,690..16 years and over 25,599,276 25,698,409 26,149,592 26,524,914 26,879,411 27,208,141 27,501,988 27,770,202 28,061,485 28,426,739 28,795,908 29,079,048 29,156,926.18 years and over 24,621,818 24,720,888 25,153,992 25,506,701 25,848,565 26,156,079 26,422,378 26,650,318 26,914,691 27,282,716 27,666,728 27,958,916 28,039,636.15 to 44 years 15,546,584 15,586,785 15,735,818 15,808,900 15,861,677 15,929,122 15,951,358 15,968,029 15,971,714 16,014,738 16,053,924 16,090,476 16,107,688..Median age (years) 33.3 33.3 33.5 33.7 33.9 34.1 34.4 34.6 34.7 34.9 35.0 35.2 35.2

table with row headers in column A and column headers in rows 3 through 4. (leading dots indicate sub-parts)Table 2. Intercensal Estimates of the Resident Population by Sex and Age for California: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2010

Sex and Age April 1, 20001 Intercensal Estimates (as of July 1)April 1, 20102 July 1, 20103

1 The April 1, 2000 Population Estimates base ref lects changes to the Census 2000 population from the Count Question Resolution program, legal boundary updates, and other geographicprogram revisions.2 The data source for April 1, 2010 is the 2010 Census count.

3 The values for July 1, 2010 w ere produced by applying estimates of change in the population betw een April 1 and July 1 of 2010 to the 2010 Census counts. Further details on thismethodology are available at http://w w w .census.gov/popest/methodology/2000-2010_Intercensal_Estimates_Methodology.pdf.

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Evaluation Estimates

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How Do the Population Estimates Differ From American Community Survey Estimates? American Community Survey population estimates are controlled to

the official population estimates.

ACS estimates are often not as current, and do not always agree with the official estimates.

ACS estimates are 3-year or 5-year averages for smaller areas.

ACS estimates are available for subjects not included in the official estimates (i.e., other social and economic characteristics).

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Same as official estimate

Official estimate = 33.6

Official estimate = 6.1%

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Web Address and Contact Information

www.census.gov/popest

(301) 763-2385

[email protected]

Documents

1 Accessing Census Bureau Population Estimates for the United States Ryan Burson Population Division U.S. Census Bureau July 16, 2014