09 July 18 April th 2019 -2020 · gbpusd 1.2390 0.04 neutral usdjpy 108.93 0.11 neutral usdcad 1.4026 0.10 weak usdchf 0.9723 0.06 weak dxy 100.20 0.03 neutral gold 1,684.96 0.24

July 18th 201909th April-2020

TIME CURRENCY EVENT EXPECTED PREVIOUS CONSENSUS IMPACT

11:30 AM GBP GDP (YOY) 1.1% 0.6% -POSITIVE

FOR GBP

11:30 AM GBP

MANUFACTURING

PRODUCTION

(MOM) (FEB)

0.1% 0.2% -NEGATIVE

FOR GBP

11:30 AM EURGERMAN TRADE

BALANCE (FEB)17.5B 18.5B -

NEGATIVE

FOR EUR

05:00 PM EUR

ECB PUBLISHES

ACCOUNT OF

MONETARY

POLICY MEETING

- - - -

06:00 PM USDINITIAL JOBLESS

CLAIMS5,250K 6,648K -

POSITIVE

FOR USD

06:00 PM CADEMPLOYMENT

CHANGE (MAR)-350K 30.3K -

NEGATIVE

FOR CAD

07:30 PM USD

MICHIGAN

CONSUMER

SENTIMENT (APR)

75.0 89.10 -NEGATIVE

FOR USD

- - - - - - -

TOP ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE DAY

SNAPSHOT

SCRIP PRICE % CHANGE TREND

AUDUSD 0.6228 0.02 STRONG

NZDUSD 0.6008 0.06 STRONG

EURUSD 1.0859 0.03 NEUTRAL

GBPUSD 1.2390 0.04 NEUTRAL

USDJPY 108.93 0.11 NEUTRAL

USDCAD 1.4026 0.10 WEAK

USDCHF 0.9723 0.06 WEAK

DXY 100.20 0.03 NEUTRAL

GOLD 1,684.96 0.24 STRONG

SILVER 15.099 0.98 STRONG

CRUDEOIL 25.81 2.87 NEUTRAL

MARKET BYTES:

• ASIAN EQUITY MARKET CLOSED LOWERAsian benchmark indices closed in negative territory on Wednesdayafter Wuhan allowed people to leave the city for the first time since thelockdown began in January, which left traders worried. At close, theHang Seng went down 283 points or 1.2% to 23,970; the Kospi lost 16points or 0.9% to 1,807; the ASX 200 ended 45 points or 0.9% lower at5,207; while the Nikkei 225 gained 403 points or 2.1% to 19,353.

• CORONAVIRUS: AUSTRALIA’S GOVERNMENT UNVEILS $130 BNWAGE SUBSIDY

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison with Labor support, passed thejobkeeper payments package worth $130 BN wage subsidy, which wasthe biggest economic lifeline in the nation's history.

ASIAN ECONOMY UPDATE

MSCI

OUR VIEW

MSCI is forming a ‘Bearish Wedge’ pattern on hourly scale that signals for a bearish reversal after a positive consolidated move. RSI is trading at 56.10 levels but expected to expand after breaching 60 levels. The index is flirting with 30-hours Exponential Moving Average.

AUDUSD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

AUD/USD has given a breakout of ‘Cup and Holder’ pattern on hourly scale that signalsfor continuation of bullish momentum and possesses high reliability. RSI is trading at58.47 levels but expected to expand after breaching 60 levels.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC BUY BUY BUY NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA BUY BUY BUY BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY BUY BUY

SENTIMETER BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:

AUDUSDAUD/USD pair is in bullish momentum after infusion of Jobkeeper wage subsidy rescueprogram of worth $130 BN by the Morrison government that has raised hopes in themarket sentiments. However, later the day, US will release weekly Initial Jobless Claims,PPI (MoM) (Mar) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr) data.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

BUY 0.6200 0.6237 0.6278 0.6173

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

AUDUSD 0.5985 0.5511 0.6320 0.6690

0.

NZDUSD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:NZD/USD has been bounced back after forming a ‘Hidden Divergence’ on hourly scale inwhich the counter forms a higher low while oscillators turn oversold early. The pair ismarching towards its potential resistance that is placed at 0.6069 levels.


RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY BUY

BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL


MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY BUY BUY

SENTIMETER BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT :NZDUSDThe kiwi is getting strength from the antipodean currency Aussie. Moreover, thecountry’s central bank showed a willingness to increase the size of its asset-purchaseprogram to boost stimulus that will combat the Coronavirus pandemic.

STRATEGY


BUY 0.6032 0.6070 0.6118 0.6000


NZDUSD 0.5740 0.5470 0.6200 0.6447

EUROPEAN ECONOMY UPDATE

MARKET BYTES:

• EUROPEAN EQUITY MARKET CLOSED WEAKEuropean equities market closed with losses on Wednesday as againCoronavirus cases in Spain rose by 6,180 to 146,690 in comparison with5,478 new cases a day earlier. Meanwhile, European finance ministersfailed to reach an agreement on stimulus package that also weighed onmarket sentiment. At close, the FTSE 100 finished 27 points or 0.5%lower at 5,678, the FTSE MIB edged down 31 points, or 0.2% to 17,381,the IBEX 35 dropped 50 points, or 0.7% to 6,952 and the DAX 30 fell 24points or 0.2% to 10,333.

• EU FAILS TO AGREE AGREEMENT ON €540BN COVID-19 RESCUEPLANEuropean Union finance ministers failed to reach to a rescue deal after16 hours of talks. However, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM)proposed an aid that will provide cash worth up to 2% of a country'seconomic output or 240 billion euros in total for the 19-nation eurozone.

EURUSD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:Despite a successful re-test of previous low on hourly scale, EUR/USD is tradinglackluster. The pair is flirting with 30-hours Exponential Moving Average. RSI is tradingback and forth in a range of 40-60 levels.


RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL

BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL

10 SMA BUY BUY BUY SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY SELL SELL

SENTIMETER BUY BUY NEUTRAL SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT :EURUSDEUR/USD pair is witnessing consolidation amid renewed concerns over the spread ofCoronavirus after the daily death rate rose again in some parts of Europe. Further, theEU finance ministers failed again to reach an agreement on finance stimulus packages tocombat the economy which has been affected by the disease.

STRATEGY


BUY 1.0893 1.0950 1.0990 1.0850


EURUSD 1.0772 1.0642 1.1150 1.1240

GBPUSD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :GBP/USD has formed a classic ‘Marubozu’ candle stick pattern that often signalscontinuation of downtrend. RSI is closed at 65.82 levels showing no signs of divergenceand oversold situation. DMI’s have been converged for continuation of upside.


RSI BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY

STOCHASTIC BUY NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY

10 SMA BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY NEUTRAL SELL

SENTIMETER BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:GBPUSDGBPUSD pair is in positive territory as Brexit hopes continue to underpin the demandfor pound against the greenback. However, there is no economic event in bothcountries today.

STRATEGY


BUY 1.2512 1.2545 1.2578 1.2486


GBPUSD 1.2300 1.2270 1.2380 1.2400

GBPUSD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :GBP/USD is forming a ‘Bearish Wedge’ pattern on hourly scale that signals for a bearishreversal after a positive consolidated move. RSI is sensing resistance from 60 levels.Stochastic oscillator is hinting for exhaustion in the uptrend.


RSI BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL


MA CROSSOVER(20,50) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL NEUTRAL

SENTIMETER BUY BUY NEUTRAL SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:GBPUSDThe cable is continued to be in consolidation phase as economy is eyeing on PMJohnson’s health. Meanwhile, the latest updates stating that he is “stable” and receiving“standard oxygen treatment”. The number of cases increased by 5,491 to 60,733, whilethe death toll rose by 938 to 7,097 in UK.

STRATEGY


BUY 1.2374 1.2450 1.2518 1.2320


GBPUSD 1.2168 1.1980 1.2777 1.3200

MARKET BYTES:

• US EQUITY FINISHED MIXED ON FRIDAYU.S equity ended mixed on Friday with S&P 500 and Nasdaq closedmarginally lower at 0.1% and 0.2% or 2 and 18 points respectively whileDow Jones was marginally higher at 0.1% or 37 points as US retail salesbeat market expectations in August led by increase in consumption ofauto sector and online shopping platform stimulate the economicgrowth.

• TRUMP URGE TO GM AS UAW (UNITED AUTO WORKERS) CALLSFOR STRIKE SINCE 2007

On Sunday, President Trump said to avoid the strike around 48,000workers, the UAW and General Motors to come together to negotiateand “make a deal”. The strike is to improve wages, reopen idled plants,add jobs at others and close or narrow the difference between pay ratesfor new hires and veteran workers of UAW while General Motors wantsits employees to pay a standard remuneration of their health careexpenses, and to increase productive work-force in their work place.

US ECONOMY UPDATE

MARKET BYTES:

• U.S EQUITY MARKET CLOSED HIGHERU.S equity market finished in positive territory on Wednesday afterAnthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and InfectiousDiseases, said that the death count is now lower than initial stage, withthe new model that projected around possibility of 60 thousand deaths byAugust. At close, the final numbers were: the Dow Jones surged 780points or 3.4% to 23,434, the S&P 500 jumped 91 points or 3.4% to 2,750and the NASDAQ climbed 204 points or 2.6% to 8,091.

• TRUMP SAID HE IS LIKELY TO RE-OPEN ECONOMY WITH A ‘BIGBANG’On Wednesday, U.S. President Trump said that he would like to re-openthe economy with a “big bang” but the death toll from the disease needsto be slowdown first. Meanwhile, Larry Kudlow said “in the next four toeight weeks, we will be able to open the economy.”

DOLLAR INDEX

OUR VIEW:The DXY has formed a small ‘Shooting Star’ candlestick pattern in previous trading session in which higher prices are rejected by market participants as they sense an expensive bet. The greenback is holding its 30-days Exponential Moving Average.

OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

USDJPY TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/JPY is trading back and forth in a narrow range of 108.52-109.40 levels on hourlyscale. The pair is flirting with 30-hours Exponential Moving Average. RSI is restricted in40-60 levels. Stochastic oscillator is continued with bullish crossover.


RSI BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY

BOLLINGER BAND BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA BUY BUY SELL BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL

SENTIMETER NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL NEUTRAL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:USDJPYUSD/JPY pair is looking neutral ahead of the US weekly Jobless Claims data amid recentlyjumping figures whereas Producers Price Index (PPI) and Michigan Consumer Sentimentcould add burden on the traders.

STRATEGY


SELL 109.38 108.86 108.50 109.60


USDJPY 106.92 104.60 111.70 112.25

USDCAD TREND: WEAK

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/CAD has sensed resistance from potential ‘Supply’ zone that is placed in a narrowrange of 1.4081-1.4092 levels on hourly scale. The pair s slipped below 100-hoursExponential Moving Average. RSI is trading at 49.17 levels but expected to witnessweakness after slipping below 40 levels.


RSI SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC SELL NEUTRAL SELL SELL

BOLLINGER BAND SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA SELL SELL SELL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL NEUTRAL BUY

SENTIMETER SELL SELL BUY BUY

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK:USDCADThe Canadian dollar remained in green against the dollar on bounce back in oil pricesafter Russia said its ready to cut production by 1.6 million barrels as part of a dealbetween major oil producers, which immediately turned market players optimist aheadof the OPEC+ meeting that will be held later the day.STRATEGY


SELL 1.3990 1.3945 1.3920 1.4030


USDCAD 1.3710 1.3440 1.4270 1.4567

USDCHF TREND: WEAK

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/CHF has formed a ‘Bullish Harami’ candlestick pattern on daily scale but possessesless reliability at swing high. A slippage below 0.9686 levels will negate the formation of‘Bullish Harami’ candlestick pattern that will activate more sellers to build shortpositions.


RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA SELL SELL SELL BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL SELL NEUTRAL

SENTIMETER SELL SELL BUY BUY

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK:USDCHFUSD/CHF pair is under pressure ahead of US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr) datawhich is likely to decline further to 75 points against 89.1 in the previous month andweak expectations in US weekly jobless claims data has underpinned the demand ofCHF.

STRATEGY


SELL 0.9684 0.9650 0.9604 0.9710


USDCHF 0.9500 0.9394 0.9904 1.0027

GOLD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL VIEW:XAU/USD is marching towards its potential resistance that is placed at 1,703.84 levels onhourly scale. The primary trend line will continue to act as a major support for thecounter. Stochastic oscillator is hinting for a slippage in standard deviation.

STRATEGY


BUY 1654.44 1674.20 1703.84 1642.00


GOLD 1626.30 1570.55 1752.90 1790.75

SILVER TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL VIEW:XAG/USD is holding above its previous consolidation that was oscillated in a narrowrange of 13.896-14.778 levels on hourly scale. The counter is holding its 200- hoursExponential Moving Average. Stochastic oscillator is continued with bullish crossover.

STRATEGY


BUY 14.824 15.237 15.470 14.602

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

SILVER 13.786 13.190 16.590 17.700

CRUDEOIL TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL VIEW:Crude Oil WTI futures has formed a ‘Bullish Harami’ candlestick pattern on daily scale that signals for exhaustion in the downtrend and a bullish reversal is highly expected. A breach above 26.45 levels will trigger the formation of ‘Bullish Harami’ candlestick pattern that will activate more buyers and lift the index to higher levels.

STRATEGY


BUY 26.66 28.24 29.15 25.85

SCRIP SUPPORT1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

CRUDE OIL 21.80 19.26 34.15 36.72

Documents

09 July 18 April th 2019 -2020 · gbpusd 1.2390 0.04 neutral usdjpy 108.93 0.11 neutral usdcad 1.4026 0.10 weak usdchf 0.9723 0.06 weak dxy 100.20 0.03 neutral gold 1,684.96 0.24