July 18 21 May th 2019 -2020...USDCHF 0.9667 0.18 WEAK DXY 99.37 0.27 NEUTRAL GOLD 1,740.63 -0.42 NEUTRAL SILVER 17.188 -2.17 NEUTRAL CRUDEOIL 33.69 0.63 STRONG MARKET BYTES: • ASIAN

July 18th 201921st May-2020

TIME CURRENCY EVENT EXPECTED PREVIOUS CONSENSUS IMPACT

ALL DAY CHFSWITZERLAND -

ASCENSION DAY- - - HOLIDAY

12:45 PM EUR

FRENCH

MANUFACTURING

PMI (MAY)

36.1 31.5 -NEGATIVE

FOR EUR

01:00 PM EUR

GERMAN

MANUFACTURING

PMI (MAY)

39.2 34.5 -POSITIVE

FOR EUR

06:00 PM USDINITIAL JOBLESS

CLAIMS2,400K 2,981K -

NEGATIVE

FOR USD

07:30 PM USDEXISTING HOME

SALES (APR)4.30M 5.27M -

NEGATIVE

FOR USD

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

TOP ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE DAY

SNAPSHOT

SCRIP PRICE % CHANGE TREND

AUDUSD 0.6561 -0.55 NEUTRAL

NZDUSD 0.6097 0.38 NEUTRAL

EURUSD 1.0962 -0.13 STRONG

GBPUSD 1.2199 -0.33 NEUTRAL

USDJPY 107.66 0.13 STRONG

USDCAD 1.3934 0.24 NEUTRAL

USDCHF 0.9667 0.18 WEAK

DXY 99.37 0.27 NEUTRAL

GOLD 1,740.63 -0.42 NEUTRAL

SILVER 17.188 -2.17 NEUTRAL

CRUDEOIL 33.69 0.63 STRONG

MARKET BYTES:

• ASIAN EQUITY MARKET CLOSED WEAKAsian benchmark indices closed moderately weak on Wednesday afterthe People's Bank of China left the one-year loan prime rate (LPR)unchanged at 3.85% as expected, while the five-year remained at 4.65%.At close, the Shanghai Composite lost 14.84 points or 0.51% to 2,883.74,the Hang Seng Index lost 28.29 points or 0.12% to 24,359.84, the Nikkei225 added 161.7 points or 0.79% to 20,595.15 and the KOSPI gained9.03 points or 0.46% to 1,989.64.

• JAPAN’S ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: MANUFACTURING CONTRACTS FELLTHE MOST SINCE 2009 DUE TO COVID-19

According to the au Jibun Bank Japan, the Manufacturing PMI fell to38.4 in May 2020 from 41.9 in a month earlier, which was the steepestcontraction in the sector since March 2009, due to a deepening COVID-19. Notably, Japan's trade balance widen deficit to JPY 930 billion in April2020 from JPY 59 billion surplus in the same month a year earlier andcompared to market expectations of a JPY 560 billion gap. While,exports tumbled 21.9% to JPY 5.20 trillion and imports declined 7.2% toJPY 6.13 trillion.

ASIAN ECONOMY UPDATE

MSCI

OUR VIEW

MSCI has formed a ‘Homing Pigeon’ candlestick pattern on daily scale that signals for a slippage in the standard deviation which will be followed by a breakout in the same. The index is holding its 50-days Exponential Moving Average. Stochastic oscillator is hinting for a lackluster move.

AUDUSD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

AUD/USD has witnessed a sharp rally earlier so a mean reversion to 50-hoursExponential Moving Average was highly expected by market participants. RSI is likely tobounce back after sensing support from 40 levels.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI SELL NEUTRAL BUY BUY

STOCHASTIC SELL SELL BUY BUY

BOLLINGER BAND SELL NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL

10 SMA SELL SELL BUY BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY BUY BUY

SENTIMETER SELL NEUTRAL BUY BUY

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:

AUDUSDAUD/USD pair is in consolidation phase due to economic data. The CommonwealthBank Services PMI in Australia improved to 25.5 in May 2020 from an all-time low of19.6 in April, the Manufacturing PMI in Australia declined to 42.8 points in May from arevised 45.6 in April and Composite PMI for Australia came at 26.4 in May andcompared to a reading of 22.4 in April.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

BUY 0.6573 0.6605 0.6635 0.6550

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

AUDUSD 0.6256 0.6000 0.6836 0.7000

0.

NZDUSD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:NZD/USD has witnessed some selling pressure after the successful re-test of previoushigh that is placed at 0.6158 levels on hourly scale. The pair is holding its 50-hoursExponential Moving Average. Stochastic oscillator is continued with bearish crossover.


RSI SELL NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC SELL NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL


MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY BUY SELL

SENTIMETER SELL BUY BUY NEUTRAL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT :NZDUSDThe Kiwi pair is following Aussie pair on economic data. In contrary, investor’s getconfidence over a recovering economy as several countries eased Coronavirus relatedlockdown measures.

STRATEGY


BUY 0.6120 0.6150 0.6178 0.6095


NZDUSD 0.5900 0.5700 0.6200 0.6450

EUROPEAN ECONOMY UPDATE

MARKET BYTES:

• EUROPEAN EQUITY MARKET CLOSED HIGHEREuropean equities market closed higher on Wednesday after sentimentgot supported by hopes of a recovery in global economy as manycountries continue to ease lockdown measures. At close, the DAX 30climbing more than 1% to close at 11,224, the FTSE 100 advanced 65points or 1.1% to close at 6,067, the CAC 40 erased early losses to close0.9% higher at 4,497, the FTSE MIB rose 179 points, or 1.1% to end at17,213 and the IBEX 35 gained 75 points, or 1.1% to close at 6,684.

• EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: EUROZONE CONSUMER MORALESTRONGER THAN FORECASTThe consumer confidence in the Euro Area rose by 3.2 points to -18.8 inMay 2020 but above market expectations of -24.0. In the EuropeanUnion as a whole, consumer sentiment inched up by 2.5 points to -19.5.

EURUSD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:EUR/USD is marching towards its potential resistance that is placed at 1.1017 levels onhourly scale. The 50-hours Exponential Moving Average will continue to act as a majorsupport for the counter. RSI is likely to bounce back after sensing support from 40 levels.


RSI SELL NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC SELL NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND SELL NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL



SENTIMETER SELL BUY BUY SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT :EURUSDEUR/USD pair is continued to rally after U.S. FOMC’s Minutes failed to impress market.Later the day, investors are waiting for US weekly unemployment claims that areforeseen up by 2.4 million vs. 2.9 million in the previous period.

STRATEGY


BUY 1.0946 1.0990 1.1017 1.0920


EURUSD 1.0727 1.0643 1.1150 1.1355

GBPUSD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :GBP/USD has formed a classic ‘Marubozu’ candle stick pattern that often signalscontinuation of downtrend. RSI is closed at 65.82 levels showing no signs of divergenceand oversold situation. DMI’s have been converged for continuation of upside.


RSI BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY

STOCHASTIC BUY NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY

10 SMA BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY NEUTRAL SELL

SENTIMETER BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:GBPUSDGBPUSD pair is in positive territory as Brexit hopes continue to underpin the demandfor pound against the greenback. However, there is no economic event in bothcountries today.

STRATEGY


BUY 1.2512 1.2545 1.2578 1.2486


GBPUSD 1.2300 1.2270 1.2380 1.2400

GBPUSD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :GBP/USD has formed a ‘Gravestone Doji’ candlestick pattern in previous trading sessionthat signals for indecisiveness in the sentiments of market participants with a negativebias. RSI is trading at 41.97 levels but expected to witness weakness after slipping below40 levels.


RSI SELL SELL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC SELL SELL NEUTRAL SELL

BOLLINGER BAND SELL SELL SELL NEUTRAL

10 SMA SELL SELL SELL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL SELL SELL

SENTIMETER SELL SELL SELL SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:GBPUSDGBP/USD pair is looking neutral today after US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchinforecasted that US economy is expected to contract by -38% in the second quarter.While, Unemployment is expected to push above 15% in September and remain above11% for the rest of the year.

STRATEGY


SELL 1.2200 1.2156 1.2100 1.2239


GBPUSD 1.1927 1.1417 1.2661 1.3026

MARKET BYTES:

• US EQUITY FINISHED MIXED ON FRIDAYU.S equity ended mixed on Friday with S&P 500 and Nasdaq closedmarginally lower at 0.1% and 0.2% or 2 and 18 points respectively whileDow Jones was marginally higher at 0.1% or 37 points as US retail salesbeat market expectations in August led by increase in consumption ofauto sector and online shopping platform stimulate the economicgrowth.

• TRUMP URGE TO GM AS UAW (UNITED AUTO WORKERS) CALLSFOR STRIKE SINCE 2007

On Sunday, President Trump said to avoid the strike around 48,000workers, the UAW and General Motors to come together to negotiateand “make a deal”. The strike is to improve wages, reopen idled plants,add jobs at others and close or narrow the difference between pay ratesfor new hires and veteran workers of UAW while General Motors wantsits employees to pay a standard remuneration of their health careexpenses, and to increase productive work-force in their work place.

US ECONOMY UPDATE

MARKET BYTES:

• U.S EQUITY MARKET CLOSED IN POSITIVE TERRITORYU.S equity market closed deeply in the green on Wednesday despite thelatest data showed that novel Covid-19 cases reached 5 millions anddeaths climbed to more than 327 thousand, with daily numbers in the USoutside NY are still on the rise. At close, the final numbers were: the DowJones jumped 369 points or 1.5% to 24,576. The S&P 500 gained 49 pointsor 1.7% to 2,972. The NASDAQ climbed 191 points or 2.1% to 9,376.

• US REPUBLICAN MCCONNELL IS INTERESTED TO ENDUNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITSAccording to a media report, US Senator Mitch McConnell is against thebeefed-up unemployment benefits, which was enacted earlier this springwhile promising that they “will not be in the next bill”. Though he iscomfortable waiting to see how the previously approved $3 tn coronavirusspending is working for the economy.

DOLLAR INDEX

OUR VIEW:The DXY has formed a ‘Bullish Divergence’ near its potential support that is placed at 99.08 levels on hourly scale in which the counter forms a low, bounce back and traces a new bottom while oscillators follow different pattern. Stochastic oscillator is continued with bullish crossover.

OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

USDJPY TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/JPY is forming an Inverted ‘Head and Shoulder’ pattern on 4-hour scale that signalsfor a bullish reversal and possesses high reliability. The pair is holding its 50 (4-hours)Exponential Moving Average. RSI is trading at 58.02 levels but expected to expand afterbreaching 60 levels.


RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL BUY

BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA BUY BUY BUY BUY


SENTIMETER BUY BUY BUY NEUTRAL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:USDJPYThe US dollar rallied significantly after Japan's trade balance switched to a deficit of JPY930 billion in April from JPY 59 billion surplus in the pervious period a year ago andcompared to market expectations of a JPY 560 billion gap.

STRATEGY


BUY 107.76 107.98 108.25 107.55


USDJPY 104.65 101.20 109.37 111.70

USDCAD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/CAD has witnessed some buying pressure after tagging near the lower portion of‘Descending Triangle’ formed on 4-hour scale that signals for an expansion in standarddeviation after a slippage. RSI has moved above 40 levels.


RSI BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA BUY BUY BUY SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY SELL SELL BUY

SENTIMETER BUY BUY SELL BUY

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK:USDCADThe loonie pair has failed to get direction after rally in oil prices and investor’s hopes of arecovery in global economy. On data font, EIA data showed US crude inventories fell by4.983 million in the latest week, the biggest drop so far this year and compared toforecasts of a 1.151 million rise.

STRATEGY


BUY 1.3963 1.4005 1.4035 1.3936


USDCAD 1.3848 1.3500 1.4351 1.4675

USDCHF TREND: WEAK

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/CHF has formed a ‘Long Black Day’ candlestick pattern in previous trading sessionthat signals the strength of sellers in the counter. A slippage below 0.9630 levels willtrigger the formation of ‘Long Black Day’ candlestick pattern and activate more sellersfor building short positions.


RSI BUY NEUTRAL SELL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC BUY NEUTRAL SELL NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY NEUTRAL SELL NEUTRAL

10 SMA BUY BUY SELL BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL SELL BUY

SENTIMETER BUY SELL SELL NEUTRAL

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK:USDCHFUSD/CHF pair is witnessing bearish momentum after less optimistic outcome from theFOMC minutes meeting for April. Later the day, US will release Existing Home Sales(Apr), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May) and weekly Initial Jobless Claimsdata. While, Switzerland’s market will be closed on account of Ascension Day.

STRATEGY


SELL 0.9638 0.9610 0.9580 0.9660


USDCHF 0.9400 0.9200 0.9900 1.0028

GOLD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL VIEW:XAU/USD is slipped below its potential support that is placed at 1,747.63 levels onhourly scale. RSI has shifted its range from 60-80 to 40-60 levels that signals for anexhaustion in the uptrend. Stochastic oscillator is hinting for some weakness.

STRATEGY


SELL 1742.55 1727.20 1711.80 1754.35


GOLD 1700.00 1669.45 1766.16 1800.00

SILVER TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL VIEW:XAG/USD has formed a small ‘Spinning Top’ candlestick pattern in previous tradingsession that signals for indecisiveness in the sentiments of market participants. Aslippage below 17.268 levels will trigger the formation of ‘Long Black Day’ candlestickpattern and activate more sellers for building short positions.

STRATEGY


SELL 17.487 17.200 17.000 17.644

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

SILVER 16.256 14.700 18.800 19.670

CRUDEOIL TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL VIEW:Crude Oil WTI futures has continued its bullish regime after giving a breakout of BullishPennant’ pattern on hourly scale that signals for continuation of bullish momentum andpossesses high reliability. The 50-hours Exponential Moving Average will continue to actas a major support for the counter.

STRATEGY


- - - - -

SCRIP SUPPORT1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

CRUDE OIL - - - -

Documents

July 18 21 May th 2019 -2020...USDCHF 0.9667 0.18 WEAK DXY 99.37 0.27 NEUTRAL GOLD 1,740.63 -0.42 NEUTRAL SILVER 17.188 -2.17 NEUTRAL CRUDEOIL 33.69 0.63 STRONG MARKET BYTES: • ASIAN