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20.04.23 1WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013
COSMO Project CORSO:Consolidation of Operational and Research results for the Sochi Olympics -2014
Status COSMOof 7 km and 2 km models in Russia
Gdaly Rivin, Inna Rozinkina , Denis BlinovHydrometeorological centre of Russia (Roshydromet)
and many of our colleagues
CONTENTS
2WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013
1. PP CORSO
2. Place, grids, observations (D.Kiktev)
3. COSMO-Ru7, COSMO-Ru2, COSMO-Ru1 (M.Shatunova), COSMO-Ru13, Universiade (Kazan, July-August 2013)
4. Snow (E.Kazakova)
5. Data assimilation (D.Blinov)
6. Plans for Oct. 2013 / 2014
20.04.23
20.04.23 3WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013
The main goal:to enhance and demonstrate the capabilities of COSMO-based systems of short-range numerical weather prediction in winter conditions for mountainous terrain and to assess the effect of practical use of this information during SOCHI-2014 Olympic Games
COSMO - METEOROLOGICAL SUPPORT FOR OLYMPICS “SOCHI-2014”
Participants:Germany, Italy, Switzerland and Russia.
4WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013
PP CORSO is considered as COSMO contribution into WMO project FROST
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5
TASK 1.High resolution COSMO-modeling for mountainous regions (TL G.Rivin)
TASK 2. Downscaling / postprocessing for Sochi area and applications (TL I.Rozinkina)
TASK 3. Development and adaptation of COSMO EPSs for Sochi region TLs E. Astakhova, A. Montani
PP CORSO (Project Leaders: G.Rivin, I.Rozinkina (Roshydromet)
2.1. Adapted down-scaling techniques for winter conditions in the mountains and IOC requirements (FDP)2.2. Determination of typical COSMO-model inaccuracies for typical synoptic situations (RDP)
1.1. Improvement of modeling technology of deterministic forecasting of weather conditions with resolution 2.2.km for the North-Caucasian area (SOCHI-2014) (FDP)
1.2. Development of COSMO-So-1km (RDP)
3.1. Adaptation of COSMO LEPS 7 km to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics. Operational ensemble forecasts during the Trials and Olympics (FDP)
3.2. Development and verification of COSMO-RU-LEPS 2.2 km for the Sochi region (with ICs and BCs from SOCHMEL7) (RDP)
WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 20.04.23
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T1. High resolution Modeling and DAS WG1, WG2, WG3a, WG3b, WG6
T2. Postprocessing / Forecast Interpretation WG4, WG5
T3. High resolution EPS WG5, WG7
WG4: PP CORSO
Downscaling for venues and local specific weather conditions
Operational forecasts of meteorological fields
Forecasts of probability of local weather events
WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 20.04.23
CORSO - 18 staff members Roshydromet:
11 - PhD, 6 – postgraduates MSU and HMC, 1 - undergraduates MSU
Task 1 High resolution COSMO-modeling for mountainous regions G.Rivin, Yu.Alferov, D.Blinov, M.Chumakov, E.Kazakova, A.Kirsanov, M.Nikitin, V.Perov, I. Rozinkina, M.Schatunova, E.Kukanova;
Task 2 Downscaling / postprocessing for Sochi area and applications
I. Rozinkina, D.Blinov, A.Bundel, E.Kazakova, V.Kopeikin, A.Muravjov, A.Revokatova, G.Rivin, M.Zaichenko;
Task 3 Development and adaptation of COSMO EPS for Sochi region E.Astakhova, A. Montani, D.Alferov, G.Rivin.
20.04.23 7WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013
PP CORSOPhase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
2011 / 2012 2012 / 2013 2013 / 2014 Choice of
strategy Proposals for
development and modification of algorithms
Preliminary tests
• Tests • Pre-operational
running• Feed-back
from forecasters
• Tuning implementation
• Operational runs
• Analysis of results
All algorithms must be implemented very fast, based the previous experience of COSMO-countries (incl. know-how for mountain forecasting)
8WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 20.04.23
WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 9
THE MAIN DIFFICULTIES OF THE PP CORSO
1.Complex geographical conditions:• sea - land winter T differences• high mountains near cost• the area of venues is located near boundary snow and/or fractional cover
2.Insufficient density of network of measurements
3.The significant part of winter weather processes is due by the local orography
4.The level of skill of forecasts for T2m and precipitation must be better
5. Computers
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Daily 4 times (00, 06, 12, 18 h UTC): • prepares more than 8000 (total for
1 day) weather forecast maps and about 1000 (total for 1 day) meteograms (images)
• sends these maps and meteograms to the weather forecasting offices of Roshydromet
• spreads on a FTP-servers the GRIB and graphical files (about 70 Gb)
Forecast system COSMO-Ru7/2
10WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 20.04.23
20.04.23 11WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013
Two clusters of «Sochi-2014» Olympic venues
Ice sports competitions
Snow sports competitions
12WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013
Sochi
Adler
Krasnaya Polyana
20.04.23
Grids COSMO-Ru7/Ru2
20.04.23 13WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013
Sochi
Adler
Krasnaya Polyana
Akhun
Location of the meteorological stations and COSMO-Ru2 (Sochi) model’s grid-points (mountain sector)
(view from SW)
14WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 20.04.23
Krasnaya Polyana
Kordon Laura
Aibga
980
1130
1755
1945
20.04.23 15WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013
20.04.23 16WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013
GME x = 20 км
COSMO-Ru7 x = 7 km
COSMO-Ru2 x =2.2 км
COSMO-RuSib x =14 км
GME: начальные и граничные данные
20.04.23 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 17
Universiade
COSMO-Ru6, , Δt=60 s
COSMO-Ru13 , Δt=120 s
Domain: 900 km * 1000 km Grid: 420*470 * 50 Step: 2.2 кмTime step: 20 cForecast: 24 / 42 h
Domain: 4900 km * 4340 km Grid: 700*620 * 40 Step: 7 kmTime step: 66 cForecast: 78 h
Domain: 5000 km * 3500 km Grid: 360*250 * 40 Step: 14 kmTime step: 80 cForecast: 78 h
Grid: 1 474 562 * 60
Step: 20 kmTime step: 110 s
20.04.23 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 18
Domain: 13200 km * 6600 km Grid: 1000*500 * 40 Step: 13.2 kmForecast: 120 hCores: 288
COSMO-Ru13 x =13.2 km
Domain: 13200 km * 6600 km Grid: 2000*1000 * 40 Step: 6.6 kmForecast: 48 / 78 hCores: 288
ETR
SIB
FarEast
20.04.23 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 19
20.04.23 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 20
20.04.23 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 21
20.04.23 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 22
Tornado (1536 cores)
Model Cores Time
Sochi-2014, 42 h,
420 х 470 (2.2 km)288 50 min
COSMO-Ru7, 78 h,
700 х 620 (7 km)288 50 min
ENA: EuNorthAsia,
78 h,
1000 х 500 (13.2km)
288 50 min
23WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 20.04.23
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--06 000 2.50 03.40 Time
DA Ru7DA CFO- Ru2DA SFO- Ru2DA Ru13
Technological line of COSMO-Ru
20.04.23 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 25
2013-08-26-00 COSMO-Ru2, Canada: GEM-2.5 and GEM-1
WMO project FROST (PL – Dmitry Kiktev): http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru
20.04.23 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 26
Roza Hutor (1580 m) 2013-08-26-00 COSMO-Ru2, Canada: GEM-2.5 and GEM-1
20.04.23 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 27
Krasnaya Polyana (Red Glade) 2013-09-01-12 COSMO-Ru2, COSMO-Ru7 and WRF-NMMB-1
20.04.23 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 28
ENA-13 km
20.04.23 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 29
COSMO-Ru7
20.04.23 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 30
01–28 Feb 2013: Ru7oper, Psea COSMO-Ru7: SFO (Sochi-2014)
RMSE: Средняя квадр. ошибка MAE: Средн.
абс.ошибка ME: Средняя ошибка
20.04.23 WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 31
01–28 Feb 2013: Ru7oper, T2mCOSMO-Ru7: SFO (Sochi-2014)
RMSE: Средняя квадр. ошибка
MAE: Средн. абс.ошибка ME:
Средняя ошибка
20.04.23 32WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013
20.04.23 33WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013
20.04.23 34WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013
PP CORSOPhase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
2011 / 2012 2012 / 2013 2013 / 2014 Choice of
strategy Proposals for
development and modification of algorithms
Preliminary tests
• Tests • Pre-operational
running• Feed-back
from forecasters
• Tuning implementation
• Operational runs
• Analysis of results
All algorithms must be implemented very fast, based the previous experience of COSMO-countries (incl. know-how for mountain forecasting)
35WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 20.04.23
FDP & RDP CORSO DELIVERABLES1. Increased skill of operational COSMO-Ru7 and COSMO-Ru2 for key
meteorological parameters;
2. Research technology COSMO-Ru1 with horizontal resolution ≈ 1km;3. Operational implementation of tools allowing the forecasting of local weather
conditions in the venues, visualization support, guidelines for forecasters;4. Adapted postprocessing techniques for winter weather conditions in sub-
tropical mountain conditions and satisfying the requirements of the winter Olympics;
5. Recommendations for operational forecasters in using the high-resolution model output with special attention to possible model error spatial and temporal structures for different weather types;
6. Programming tools for object-oriented and multi-scale verification of hydrodynamic mesoscale forecasts
7. RDP: Developed weather types classification approaches, results of case studies for the Sochi2014 region;
8. A COSMO-LEPS system with 7 km resolution adapted to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics (SOCHMEL7). Operational ensemble forecasts during the Olympics. Technology of presentation and interpretation of SOCHMEL7 results in operational mode;
9. COSMO-RU-LEPS 2.2 km for the Sochi region (with ICs and BCs from SOCHMEL7.
36WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 20.04.23
Oct. 2013 / 2014
• to improve near-surface (first - T2m) forecasts:- TERRA development- DAS implementation- Snow-cover assimilation
• to increase the model resolution (orographic effects)• to develop the statistical postprocessing with small
training period• to develop the probabilistiс forecasting for significant
weather phenomena
WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013 3720.04.23
20.04.23 38WG4: Sibiy, 2 September 2013
COSMO Project CORSO:Consolidation of Operational and Research results for the Sochi Olympics -2014
Status of 7 km and 2 km models in Russia
Gdaly Rivin, Inna Rozinkina , Denis BlinovHydrometeorological centre of Russia (Roshydromet)
and many of our colleagues