05.06.29 Abd Chpt 3 Catchment Analysis Tcm4-8616 Tcm4-2565

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Old Gaol - Feasibility studyChapter 3: Catchment analysis

ABL Cultural Consulting 15

3. Catchment analysis

3.1 Introduction

The Vale of White Horse shares its north east boundary with the city of Oxford

and its western boundary with the Borough of Swindon; it is bordered by theRiver Thames to the north and east and has the M4 motorway a little to the

south. Its main centres of population are the towns of Abingdon, Faringdon andWantage/Grove. The proximity of the M4 and M40 motorways means that theVale is easily accessible by road from London and Bristol. Rail links to thedistrict itself are fairly poor; none of the three towns has a rail station. NearbyDidcot, Oxford and Swindon have good connections with the capital, the west,the Midlands and Wales.

3.2 Population profile

This section contains data on the population of the district from the 2001Census1. This data also allows us to compare the local population to that of theregion, the South East, and to England and Wales as a whole.

The population of the Vale at the time of the 2001 Census was 115,627; thisrepresents an increase of just over 3% since the previous census of 1991. This

population is spread over 45,759 households; on average there are 2.5 peopleper household, a figure roughly equivalent to that seen nationally. Adults(those aged 16 or over) account for four fifths (79.5%) of the population. Theage profile of residents of the Vale of White Horse is broadly similar to thatobserved nationally, although there is a slightly greater proportion of 30 to 59year olds, and a slightly lower proportion of 20 to 29 year olds. The table belowshows how the population of the district differs from the regional and national

population.

Table 1: Age profile

Base: all peopleSource: 2001 Census, ONS

1

Source: 2001 Census. Crown copyright 2003. Crown copyright material is reproduced with thepermission of the Controller of HMSO

Vale of WhiteHorse

%South East

%

Englandand Wales

%

Under 16 20.5 19.9 20.2

16 to 19 5.0 4.8 4.9

20 to 29 10.7 12.0 12.6

30 to 59 43.5 42.1 41.5

60 to 74 13.1 13.2 13.3

75 and over 7.2 8.0 7.6




ABL Cultural Consulting16

The area is relatively sparsely populated, reflecting the largely rural character of the district; there is an average of 2.0 people per hectare, compared to 3.4people per hectare in England and Wales.

The proportion of married people in the Vale is higher than that seen regionally

or nationally; almost three fifths (58.2%) of adult Vale residents are married orre-married, compared to just over a half (50.9%) of those in England andWales. The table below shows the marital status of adults in the Vale comparedto those in the region and in England and Wales.

Table 2: Marital status

Base: all people aged 16 and overSource: 2001 Census, ONS

The population of the Vale of White Horse is predominantly white; 97.6% of thelocal population falls into this ethnic group, compared to 90.9% of thepopulation of England.

Table 3: Ethnicity

Base: all peopleSource: 2001 Census, ONS

Vale of WhiteHorse

%South East

%

Englandand Wales

%

Single (never married) 25.9 28.4 30.1

Married or re-married 58.2 53.0 50.9Separated or divorced 8.7 10.5 10.6

Widowed 7.1 8.1 8.4

Vale of WhiteHorse

%England

%

White 97.6 90.9

White Irish 1.0 1.3

Mixed 0.8 1.3

Asian or Asian British 0.7 4.6

Indian 0.4 2.1

Pakistani 0.1 1.4

Bangladeshi 0.1 0.6

Other Asian 0.1 0.5Black or Black British 0.2 2.1

Caribbean 0.1 1.1

African 0.1 1.0

Other Black 0.0 0.2

Chinese or other ethnic group 0.7 0.9





Unemployment is low in the Vale; just 1.6% of the local working age populationis unemployed, compared to 3.4% nationally. Correspondingly, a highproportion of the local population is in employment (69.1%, compared to 60.6%in England and Wales). The proportion of retired people is slightly below the

national average (12.9%, compared to 13.6%). The table below shows the

employment status of the local, regional and national populations.

Table 4: Employment status

Base: all people aged 16-74Source: 2001 Census, ONS

Almost three in ten (28.2%) Vale residents are qualified to degree level orhigher, compared to just a fifth (19.8%) in England and Wales as a whole.

There are a number of other indicators that demonstrate that the Vale of WhiteHorse is a relatively affluent area:

• A higher than average proportion of owner occupied households in the

Vale (74.4%, compared to 68.9% nationally);

• A high proportion of households with two or more cars or vans (44.7% inthe Vale, compared to 29.4% in England and Wales);

• A high proportion of people describe themselves as being of good health(74.9%, compared to 68.6% nationally).

Vale of WhiteHorse

%South East

%

Englandand Wales

%

Employed 69.1 65.0 60.6

Unemployed 1.6 2.3 3.4

Long-term unemployed 0.3 0.6 1.0

Student (economically active) 2.7 2.7 2.6

Retired 12.9 13.4 13.6

Student (economically inactive) 3.7 4.2 4.7

Looking after home / family 6.0 6.5 6.5

Permanently sick or disabled 2.3 3.4 5.5

Other inactive 1.7 2.4 3.1





3.3 Lifestyle profiles

Data from Experian, the leading credit referencing agency and data supplier,

has been used to examine the area within 30 minutes weekday off peak drivetime of the Old Gaol in Abingdon. The catchment area was limited to 30minutes, as a larger area would have encompassed, and been unduly influencedby, other large urban areas such as Reading and Swindon.

Experian data allows us to examine the population of the local area in terms of its Mosaic profile; this classifies households by post code into one of eleven

lifestyle groups, which are in turn further divided to give 61 sub-groups ortypes. Mosaic profiling is generated from a number of sources, including the

2001 Census, house price data from the land registry, local levels of council taxand a number of market research surveys (including the Target Group Index,the British Crime Survey, and Experian’s own lifestyle questionnaires). Experianalso provides demographic information on the population, and indications of thepopulation’s propensity to take part in various cultural and leisure activities.

As Experian’s catchment area is defined by drive time rather than by local

authority boundaries, it is not directly comparable with the Vale of White Horsedistrict. The area within 30 minutes drive time of Abingdon includes Oxford,Kidlington, Didcot and Wantage. Faringdon, however, does not fall within thisarea. The catchment area reaches as far as Bicester to the north, Thame to theeast, almost as far as Witney to the west, and Newbury to the south. The totalpopulation of this area is 366,448; the adult population is 302,748; the totalnumber of households is 152,562.2 The map opposite shows this catchmentarea.

2

Note that the population of this catchment area is considerably larger than that of the Vale of White Horse district (115,627, according to the 2001 Census).





Figure 1: 30 minute catchment area map





The table below shows how the population is distributed across the elevenMosaic lifestyle groups. The table shows the absolute number of adults in the 30minute area around Abingdon, the equivalent figure as a percentage, theequivalent percentage based on the Great Britain population, and the index.

The index identifies groups that are under or over represented in the Abingdon

area compared to the whole of Great Britain; an index of 100 is average,anything below is under-represented, anything above is over-represented.

Table 4: Mosaic Lifestyle Groups

Base: all adults 15+Source: Experian

Key:A. Symbols of Success: “People with rewarding careers who live in sought afterlocations, affording luxuries and premium quality products.” B. Happy Families: “Families with focus on career and home, mostly younger agegroups now raising children.” C. Suburban Comfort : “Families who are successfully established in comfortable, maturehomes. Children are growing up and finances are easier.” D. Ties of Community : “People living in close-knit inner city and manufacturing towncommunities, responsible workers with unsophisticated tastes.” E. Urban Intelligence: “Young, single and mostly well-educated, these people arecosmopolitan in tastes and liberal in attitudes.” F. Welfare Borderline: “People who are struggling to achieve rewards and are mostlyreliant on the council for accommodation and benefits.”

G. Municipal Dependency : “Families on lower incomes who often live in large councilestates where there is little owner-occupation.” H. Blue Collar Enterprise: “People who though not well-educated are practical andenterprising and may well have exercised their right to buy.” I. Twilight Subsistence: “Elderly people subsisting on meagre incomes in councilaccommodation.” J. Grey Perspectives: “Independent pensioners living in their own homes who arerelatively active in their lifestyles.” K. Rural Isolation: “People living in rural areas where country life has not beeninfluenced by urban consumption patterns.”

30 minutecatchment

area

n

30 minutecatchment

area

%

GreatBritain

% Index

A. Symbols of Success 57,246 18.9 10.6 178

B. Happy Families 41,513 13.7 10.9 126

C. Suburban Comfort 56,077 18.5 16.6 111

D. Ties of Community 18,710 6.2 16.2 38E. Urban Intelligence 53,544 17.7 7.1 249

F. Welfare Borderline 5,177 1.7 5.3 32

G. Municipal Dependency 3,673 1.2 6.2 20

H. Blue Collar Enterprise 35,123 11.6 11.3 103

I. Twilight Subsistence 6,610 2.2 3.1 70

J. Grey Perspectives 17,578 5.8 7.4 79

K. Rural Isolation 7,497 2.5 5.4 46





The area around Abingdon is quite affluent, and is largely populated by peoplefrom the more upmarket Mosaic types.

The most populous type in the area is Symbols of Success; this type is also

considerably over-represented when compared to the national average.

Symbols of Success is defined by Experian as “people with rewarding careerswho live in sought after locations, affording luxuries and premium qualityproducts.” Within this group, the most common Mosaic types are Semi-Rural Seclusion and Cultural Leadership. The former is defined as “higher incomefamilies living on the outskirts of commutable metropolitan areas” and is themost populous of all the 61 Mosaic groups in the Abingdon area, while the latter

is comprised of “well-to-do professionals, living in traditional family units inexclusive suburbs.”

In terms of recreational activities, people in this group are more likely thanaverage to have an interest in theatre or the arts, but less likely to visit thecinema.

Where the Abingdon area differs most from the national population is in thepresence of people from the Urban Intelligence Mosaic type; more than one in

six (17.7%) adults in the 30 minute catchment area fall into this group,compared to just 7.1% of the adult population of Great Britain. Mosaic definesthis group as “young, single and mostly well-educated, these people arecosmopolitan in tastes and liberal in attitudes.” Within the Urban Intelligence group, the most commonly found Mosaic types are Town Gown Transition andCaring Professionals. Town Gown Transition is a group where “students andacademics mix with young professionals in terraces relatively close touniversities.” The Caring Professionals group is made up of “well qualifiedsingles and couples in caring professions renting lower quality inner terraces.”

The influence of Oxford can clearly be felt in these Mosaic types. The proximityof a major university city means that the 30 minute catchment area aroundAbingdon contains a great many young, well-qualified people.

Interest in theatre, the arts and cinema is a characteristic of people in theUrban Intelligence group. The Urban Intelligence group is largely made up of recent graduates, and therefore is more clustered around Oxford than theimmediate Vale of White Horse area. Car ownership in this group is relatively

low; this factor, combined with the wealth of cultural opportunities available inOxford, makes it unlikely that people in this group will travel from Oxford toAbingdon to visit the Old Gaol. People living in the Vale are more likely to fallinto the Symbols of Success or Happy Families groups.

There is a greater than average proportion of people in the Happy Families Mosaic group. This group is made up of “families with a focus on career andhome, mostly younger age groups now raising children.” The most notabletypes within this group are In Military Quarters and Fledgling Nurseries.





In Military Quarters comprises “servicemen and their families who live inmilitary accommodation.” People in this type in the Vale area are likely to bebased in the Dalton Barracks, just to the north-west of Abingdon. They tend tobe young couples, often with children; they are more likely to be interested in

sports and computer games than in visiting theatres, museums and libraries,

although they are more likely than average to be frequent cinema visitors. Itshould be noted that this group is not just made up servicemen, but also of their wives and children. Although this group is over-represented in thiscatchment area (the proportion in the local population is more than three timesthat found in the country as a whole) it does not account for a particularly largesegment of the population in terms of actual numbers; there are 1,953 people

in this type in the Abingdon catchment area, accounting for just 0.7% of thepopulation.

The Fledgling Nurseries type is made up of “very young couples in recentlydeveloped housing working in intermediate jobs.” People in this group tend tolive in newly built out of town estates, and consequently often rely on home

entertainment such as the internet and computer games. There are just over9,000 people in this category in the Abingdon catchment area, accounting for3.0% of the population. They are over-represented by a factor of 2.6.

The largest Happy Families type in terms of absolute numbers is FamiliesMaking Good . There are just over 12,000 individuals of this type in theAbingdon catchment area, representing 4.0% of the total population. This typeis comprised of “upper middle income families in good quality housing, manywith school age children.”

Another group that should be considered is Suburban Comfort . Although thisgroup is not as over-represented as Urban Intelligence or Symbols of Success, it

still accounts for a large proportion of the local population. At 18.5% of thelocal population, this is the second largest group in the catchment area.Suburban Comfort is defined as “Families who are successfully established incomfortable, mature homes. Children are growing up and finances are easier.”

A sizeable proportion of the population in the Abingdon catchment area falls intothe White Van Culture Mosaic type, a sub-group of the Blue Collar Enterprise group. These are “younger owners, many in good quality ex-council properties,

who take advantage of local economic opportunities.” 7.2% of the localpopulation falls into this category, more than twice the proportion foundnationally (3.3%), accounting for some 21,840 individuals. Although thereputation of the area is for middle class sophisticates, the presence of more

working class households should not be ignored.





Demographic information

Experian provides figures on the social grades of people in the Abingdon area;

the highest social grades are the most over-represented in this area. Socialgrades A, B and C1, those representing white collar workers, are all morecommon in the Abingdon area than in the country as a whole. The table belowshows how the local and national population breaks down by social grade.

Table 5: Social grade

30 minutecatchment

arean

30 minutecatchment

area%

GreatBritain

% Index

Social grade A 13,348 4.3 3.4 126

Social grade B 74,766 23.8 20.7 115

Social grade C1 94,816 30.2 28.1 108

Social grade C2 63,403 20.2 21.1 96

Social grade D 44,248 14.1 17.2 82

Social grade E 23,643 7.5 9.7 78


Although the area has a lower than average proportion of people in socialgrades C2, D and E (people in manual occupations, and those relying on state

benefits), it should not be assumed that they make up an insignificantproportion of the population. Indeed, around two fifths (41.8%) of the local

population fall into these categories.

Similarly, data on household income demonstrates that this is an affluent area;21.7% of households in the area have an annual household income of £35,000or more, compared to 17.8% in Great Britain as a whole. The table belowshows how household income in the Abingdon catchment area differs from thatseen nationally.

Table 6: Household income

30 minutecatchment

area

n

30 minutecatchment

area

%

GreatBritain

% Index£4,999 or less 11,931 7.8 9.2 85

£5,000 to £10,999 27,229 17.9 20.3 88

£11,000 to £14,999 17,436 11.4 12.7 90

£15,000 to £19,999 18,738 12.3 12.6 98

£20,000 to £24,999 17,220 11.3 10.9 103

£25,000 to £24,999 26,999 17.7 16.5 107

£35,000 or more 33,109 21.7 17.8 122

Base: all householdsSource: Experian





3.4 Leisure and cultural activities

Experian data allows us to look at the attendance habits of the local population

in terms of visiting theatres, museums and cinemas. Through this we establishestimates for possible attendance at each element of the proposed redevelopedOld Gaol.

There are more than 70,000 people in the catchment area who have visited amuseum in the last year. This represents 22.5% of the local population, anincrease on the national average of nearly 3%. A significant number of these

people have visited museums in London, demonstrating how the appeal of thecapital cannot be ignored when considering potential audiences in the Vale.

Table 7: Museum attendance

30 minute

catchmentarea

n

30 minute

catchmentarea%

GreatBritain

% Index

Museums (any) 70,780 22.5 19.7 114

Natural History Museum 22,139 7.1 6.2 114

Science Museum 22,233 7.1 6.2 114

Other museums in London 13,766 4.4 3.4 129


Abingdon museum attracts some 20 thousand visitors per year at present.Visitor surveys reveal that one third of this total comprises of visitors from

outside the area. Many of these are staying with friends or relatives in the town.Many of these visit by boat. At least two companies run boat trips from Oxford

and Abingdon, which has many popular moorings for those on boating holidays.

On the whole Abingdon's historic attractions are not well marketed to touristsand with the recent closure of the TICs owing to budget cuts, the Vale will haveto work hard to improve the situation. Were the town to develop itself as atourism destination this proportion of out of town visitors might increase.

There are more than 130,000 adults in the catchment area who have attended aperformance in a theatre in the last year. This figure includes residents of

Oxford as well as those of Abingdon and the surrounding rural area. These

Oxford residents, many of whom are students, are probably unlikely to go toAbingdon for a trip to the theatre since the city is well provided with theatrevenues of a variety of types and sizes.

Plays and pop or rock concerts are the most popular types of performance seenin theatres by residents of the catchment; classical concerts are also popular.

The table opposite shows how attendance patterns at various types of theatreperformance varies between the local and national performances.





Table 8: Theatre attendance

30 minutecatchment

area

n

30 minutecatchment

area

%

GreatBritain

% IndexTheatre 134,610 42.8 38.4 112

Plays 88,539 28.2 24.2 116

Opera 27,386 8.7 7.1 123

Ballet 26,590 8.5 7.1 119

Contemporary dance 18,415 5.9 5.0 117

Classical concerts 47,503 15.1 12.7 119

Jazz concerts 24,395 7.8 6.4 121

Popular / rock concerts 84,662 26.9 23.9 113


Each type of performance listed above is more popular among residents of thecatchment than among the national population, suggesting that the localpopulation is likely to be inclined to attend performances at a redeveloped OldGaol.

Experian measures cinema attendance in a slightly different way. Almost two

thirds (64.5%) of the adult population of the Abingdon catchment area reportthat they ever go to the cinema3; this is slightly above average for Great

Britain. Regular cinema attenders are slightly harder to come by, however.There are almost 95,000 adults in the catchment area who go to the cinema atleast once every three months, of whom nearly 50,000 go at least once per

month. The table below shows the frequency of cinema attendance amongadults in the catchment area compared to the national population.

Table 9: Cinema attendance

30 minutecatchment

arean

30 minutecatchment

area%

GreatBritain

% Index

Ever go to cinema 202,594 64.5 61.1 106

Go once or more a month 47,799 15.2 13.9 109

Go every 2 or 3 months 46,755 14.9 13.7 109

Go less often 108,04034.4

33.5 103

Never go these days 113,607 36.2 38.9 93


If we suppose that those people who go to the cinema once or twice per month

make an average of fifteen visits per year, that those going every two or threemonths make an average of five visits per year, and that those going less oftenmake just one visit per year, then we can estimate that residents of thecatchment area on average make 3.4 visits to the cinema per year. If thosewho do not go to the cinema at all are disregarded, the average number of

3

“Ever go” : a respondent who answers in the affirmative to the question : Do you ever go to thecinema nowadays?





visits per year is 5.2 (this is the average number of visits made by those who goto the cinema at all).

Figures for attendance at museums, theatres and cinemas among residents of

the catchment area are high, but it should be reiterated that this catchment

area includes Oxford, a city rich in such attractions. Residents of the local areawill also travel to London for cultural activities.

3.5 Library users

Oxfordshire County Council Public Library Users Survey Combined Weighted Authority & Service Point Report 2003

This report presents the findings from a survey of visitors to all the publiclibraries in Oxfordshire. A total of 50 libraries were covered, of which Abingdonhas the second highest number of visitors (7,465 visits weekly; the CentralLibrary has the highest number of weekly visits, with 14,739). The Councilreceived a total of 12,132 completed questionnaires from visitors to the 50libraries; results have been weighted to reflect the total number of weekly visits

in all these libraries. On average, almost nine in ten visitors (88.6%)responded to the survey.

The survey covered the following topics:

• Reason for visit to the library

• Whether visitors were able to find what they were looking for

• Satisfaction with various aspects of the library (condition of the building,ease of access, helpfulness of staff, etc)

The coverage of the survey allows us to compare the results for libraries in theVale (Abingdon, Wantage and Faringdon) with those in Oxfordshire as a whole.

Satisfaction levels with libraries across the county are generally very high; staff helpfulness and staff knowledge and expertise are the factors that tend to bemost highly rated. The Abingdon library is generally rated a little lower than theOxfordshire average, but not significantly. Of the three Vale libraries covered in

the survey, Wantage receives the highest ratings. There is room forimprovement across the county’s libraries in the areas of opening hours andprovision of seating and tables. It should be noted, however, that negativeratings (‘poor’ or ‘very poor’) are comparatively low in number.

The chart opposite shows how visitors to Abingdon library rated these variousfactors.





Chart 1: Rating of Abingdon library services

15%

17%

17%

18%

21%

17%

30%

25%

28%

27%

34%

35%

37%

44%

58%

34%

43%

49%

50%

53%

52%

56%

45%

52%

51%

54%

49%

51%

52%

50%

39%

56%

37%

28%

32%

27%

26%

26%

22%

23%

19%

19%

18%

13%

11%

6%

3%

10%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Provision of seat ing and tables

Hours of opening

Layout and arrangement

Signs and guiding

Books and other materials

Condition of the library outside

Computers

Ease of access inside the library

Ease of access entering the building

Condition of the library inside

Children's services

Time spent waiting for service

Information and enquiry services

Staff knowledge and expertise

Staff helpfulness

Overall

Very good Good Adequate Poor Very poor

The concerns of Abingdon library users are not markedly different to those of users in the county as a whole, as the chart below demonstrates.

Chart 2: Rating of Oxfordshire library services

23%

26%

25%

25%

27%

29%

34%

36%

39%

39%

38%

43%

42%

52%

65%

39%

45%

45%

49%

49%

48%

49%

44%

47%

45%

48%

50%

46%

48%

43%

32%

52%

27%

26%

24%

23%

23%

21%

19%

16%

14%

12%

12%

11%

9%

6%

3%

8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Hours of opening

Provision of seating and tables

Books and other materials

Layout and arrangement

Signs and guiding

Condition of the library outside

Computers

Children's services

Ease of access entering the building

Condition of the library inside

Ease of access inside the library

Time spent waiting for service

Information and enquiry services

Staff knowledge and expertise

Staff helpfulness

Overall

Very good Good Adequate Poor Very poor





The Abingdon library has a slightly higher proportion of frequent visitors thanthose in the other towns in the area, with almost three fifths (57.2%) of thosesurveyed coming to the library at least once a week.

This survey also allows us to compare the demographic characteristics of library

users in Abingdon, Faringdon, Wantage and Oxfordshire as a whole. Abingdonlibrary receives a slightly higher proportion of visitors aged 55 or above thanthe other local libraries. The table below shows how the libraries’ users aredistributed by age.

Table 10: Age of library users

Oxford-shire

%Abingdon

%Faringdon

%Wantage

%

14 or under 0.7 1.1 0.0 0.7

15 to 19 2.8 1.1 3.6 3.5

20 to 24 6.2 1.4 2.4 2.125 to 34 14.3 12.0 10.7 8.4

35 to 44 16.7 16.3 27.8 19.1

45 to 54 15.3 14.5 12.4 15.9

55 to 64 15.7 18.6 13.6 17.0

65 to 74 17.0 20.8 21.3 23.1

75 or over 11.1 14.3 8.3 10.3

Base: all library usersSource: Oxford County Council Public Library Users Survey

There is a slightly higher proportion of female visitors at Abingdon library than

is seen in the other local libraries or in the county as a whole.

Table 11: Sex of library users

Oxford-shire

%Abingdon

%Faringdon

%Wantage

%

Male 38.0 33.1 35.0 38.4

Female 62.0 66.9 65.0 61.6


In accordance with the age profile described above, there is a high proportion of retired people in the Abingdon library visitor base (42.3%, compared to 33.9%across all of Oxfordshire’s public libraries). Owing to its rural location, there is alower proportion of students visiting Abingdon library than seen elsewhere in

the county; just 4.0%, compared to 11.6% in Oxfordshire generally.





The table below shows the employment status of library visitors in the Vale areaand in Oxfordshire as a whole.

Table 12: Employment status of library users

Oxford-shire

%Abingdon

%Faringdon

%Wantage

%

Full time employment 24.7 21.0 19.3 15.9

Part time employment 17.5 19.7 24.1 17.5

Self employed 6.4 6.2 9.6 7.4

Unemployed 2.9 1.5 1.2 2.1

Retired 33.9 42.3 33.7 42.2

Part time student 3.5 2.0 4.2 1.4

Full time student 8.1 2.0 2.4 3.9

Looking after the home /

family 11.0 11.9 18.1 15.0Permanently sick / disabled 1.6 2.4 1.2 2.8

Other 2.3 3.3 2.4 2.5






3.6 Market model

We have used the information from Experian and other sources to estimate the

potential audience for each element of the proposed redeveloped Old Gaol.

3.6.1 Museum

Data from Experian suggests that there are just over 70,000 adult museumvisitors in the 30 minute catchment area around Abingdon. If we assume that

each of these makes an average of 3.4 museum visits per year4, this gives atotal of over 240,000 museum visits by local people per year. Clearly, not all of

these will be in the Abingdon area, as there is significant competition fromLondon, Oxford and other regional museums. Our competition analysis leads usto estimate that the Old Gaol could capture 10% of the museum market in the

local area, equivalent to around 24,000 adult visits. We have estimated thatvisits from children will increase this total by a further 10%, while visits fromtourists will lead to an increase of 50% (the museum management estimatesthat one third of its visitors are tourists).

These calculations give an estimated potential audience for the museumelement of the Old Gaol of 38,400. See below for the detail of thesecalculations.

Adult museum visitors in catchment: 70,780Average number of visits per year: 3.4Total number of visits per year: 240,652

Anticipated market share of Old Gaol: 10%Number of adult visits to Old Gaol: 24,000Number of visits by children (+10%): 2,400Number of visits by tourists (+50%): 12,000Total expected audience: 38,400

3.6.2 Theatre

The 30 minute catchment area is home to around 135,000 adults who haveattended a performance in a theatre in the last year. We estimate that these

theatre visitors will on average make 2.7 visits per year5, giving a total of more

than 360,000 visits annually. If the theatre at the Old Gaol achieves a 10%market share, it will attract more than 36,000 visits from adults in a year. Toaccount for visits from children, 10% needs to be added, and to account for

4 Visitors to Museums and Galleries in the UK, Research Study conducted for Resource by MORI,Sept 2004 - examines the UK public’s museum and gallery visiting habits in addition to theattitudes of schoolchildren in England and Wales towards museums and galleries - indicated that

the average museum attender visits a museum 3.4 times per year.

5 Arts Council England’s Arts in England: attendance, participation and attitudes in 2001 suggests

that those who go to plays or drama events typically attend approximately 2.7 such events per

year (based on 39% going once, 27% going twice, 24% going 3-5 times, 7% going 6-10 times,and 2% going 11 or more times).




visits from tourists the same proportion needs to be added again (we do notexpect the theatre to attract as many children and tourists as the museum).

These calculations give an estimated potential audience for the theatre element

of the Old Gaol of approximately 43,500. See below for the detail of these

calculations.

Adult theatre visitors in catchment: 134,610Average number of visits per year: 2.7Total number of visits per year: 363,447Anticipated market share of Old Gaol: 10%

Number of adult visitors to Old Gaol: 36,345Number of visits by children (+10%): 3,635

Number of visits by tourists (+10%): 3,635Total expected audience: 43,615

3.6.3 Cinema

Data from Experian suggests that there are more than 200,000 adult cinema

visitors in the 30 minute catchment area around Abingdon, making an averageof 5.2 visits per year. This amounts to more than a million cinema visits peryear from adults in the Abingdon area. Film at the Old Gaol would facecompetition from the cinemas in Oxford, as well as from the new Ozone multiscreen complex on the outskirts of the city, so we do not expect its marketshare to be more than 5%. This would lead to more than 50,000 visits fromadult residents per year. Visits from children would boost this figure by 15%,and visits from tourists would an extra 1%.

These calculations give an estimated potential audience for the cinema elementof the Old Gaol of approximately 60,000. See below for the detail of thesecalculations.

Adult cinema visitors in catchment: 202,594Average number of visits per year: 5.2Total number of visits per year: 1,053,489Anticipated market share of Old Gaol: 5%

Number of adult visitors to Old Gaol: 52,674Number of visits by children: (+15%): 7,901Number of visits by tourists (+1%): 527Total expected audience: 61,102

3.6.4 Library

The Oxfordshire County Council Public Library Users Survey of 2003 reports that

Abingdon’s existing library attracts 7,465 visits per week, which equates to388,180 per year.

There is no reason to suppose that relocation of the library to the Old Gaol willsignificantly affect these visitor numbers.

Documents

05.06.29 Abd Chpt 3 Catchment Analysis Tcm4-8616 Tcm4-2565