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DECISION MAKING (WEEK 6)
20-Jul-14 BE2601 Instructors:
Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15 1
Seminar Outline for Today
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15 2
20-Jul-14
Course Format Title Remarks
Interactive Lecture & Discussion
Decision Making 70 - 80 mins.
Case Study The Wallingford Bowling Center
B&S: pp. 112 – 113 50 - 60 mins.
Game Group Activity [Supplementary – If Time Permits]
Decision Making Handout 50 - 60 mins.
Quiz (Class Discussion)
Critical Thinking Questions
Recap… last lesson..
1. SWOT Analysis – Levels of Strategies
3
20-Jul-14
2. Corporate Level Strategy (a) Concentration
(b) Vertical Integration (c) Concentric Diversification
(d) Conglomerate Diversification
3. Business Level Strategy
(a) Low Cost Strategy
4. Functional Strategy
5. Boston Consulting Group (BCG) Matrix
(b) Differentiation Strategy
6. Porter’s Five Factors as a major threats
7. Strategy Implementation 8. Strategic Control
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Link between last and this week’s lesson
Decision Making, Creativity & Innovation
4
20-Jul-14
Planning for Business Operations (Part II) (Week 5)
(Week 6)
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
5
20-Jul-14
Key Concepts
• What is decision making?
• Why managers avoid making decision?
• Factors affecting decision making
• Decision making process
• Barriers to making good decision
• Group decision making
• How to encourage creativity in decision making?
• Decision making during crisis
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Decision making is the process by which managers
respond to:
Opportunities and threats by
Analyzing options and
Making decision about specific goals or course of action to take
E.g. How PUMA transformed its flagging business from loss-making to profitability
6
What is Decision Making?
20-Jul-14
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 86, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013) Refer to pg. 217, Chap 7 (Jones & George, 2011)
7
20-Jul-14
The Classical Model of Decision Making
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 220, Chap 7 (Jones & George, 2011)
Instead,
managers procrastinate
decision making or get busy with less demanding
activities
Unable to anticipate resources needed in terms of:
Time
8
20-Jul-14
Why Managers Avoid Making Decision?
Energy
Commitment
Afraid of failure
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
9
20-Jul-14
Factors Affecting Decision Making
Incomplete Information
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 87-89, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
Lack of Structure
Programmed Decision
Decision Making Structure
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Routine, virtually automated process
Encountered and made before based on: - simple rules, policies or numerical computations that establishes the decision rules
Non-programmed Decision
Non-routine, new/novel, complex decision
No proven answers or decision rules
Depends on criteria or guiding principles to
facilitate decision making
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 87, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
Lack of Structure
How are non-programmed
decisions made?
Intuition
Generating
Feelings
Careful gathering of information
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20-Jul-14
Beliefs
Hunches for on-the-spot decision
Evaluating alternatives
Reasoned Judgment
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Quiz
Managers typically face structured problems they have seen before, which makes the decision process easier because there is already a procedure to follow True False
12
20-Jul-14
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
13
20-Jul-14
Comparison of Types of Decisions
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Incomplete Information
14
Insufficient resources to search all alternative
solutions and evaluate them for potential
consequences
Ambiguous information
Time constraint and information cost
Reason for Incomplete Information
20-Jul-14
Same piece of information being
interpreted differently and decisions made based on individual
interpretation
Not clear, it can be interpreted in
multiple and conflicting ways
Uncertainty and risk
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Prepared by Dr. Kumaran Rajaram
15
20-Jul-14
Incomplete Information
Young Woman or Old Woman
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
16
Certainty
The state that exists when decision makers have accurate
and comprehensive information
Uncertainty
The state that exists when decision makers have insufficient information
to know the consequences of different action
Probabilities of alternative outcomes cannot be determined
and future outcomes are unknown E.g. When will US & Europe recover from the economic
slowdown and Euro-zone debt crisis?
20-Jul-14
Certainty and Uncertainty
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Risk
17
“Taking risk”
versus
“Managing risk”
The state that exists when the probability of success is less than 100 percent and losses may occur E.g. In pharmaceutical industry, new drugs often have a 10% probability of successfully passing advanced clinical trials and a 90% probability of failing
20-Jul-14
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 87-88, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013) Refer to pg. 221-223, Chap 7 (Jones & George, 2011)
Prepared by Dr. Kumaran Rajaram
Opposing pressures from different sources, occurring on the level of:
18
Psychological conflict within the decision-maker or
20-Jul-14
Conflict
Conflict between individuals or groups
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 89, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
Prepared by Dr. Kumaran Rajaram
19
20-Jul-14
Conflict
• 1st level conflict ‒ Individual decision maker experiences psychological
conflict when several options are attractive or when none of the options is attractive
• E.g. layoff decision, hiring choices etc.
• 2nd level conflict ‒ Conflict arises between people
• E.g. revenue versus profit, volume versus quality
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
20
20-Jul-14
Step 2 Generate alternative
solutions
Step 3 Evaluate alternative
solutions
Step 4 Make the choice
Step 5 Implement the
decision
Step 6 Evaluate the
decision
Step 1 Identify and diagnose the
problem
Six-steps in Decision Making
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 89-96, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
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Step 1: Identify and Diagnose the Problem
• Recognize the need for a decision
• Sparked by changes in the organizational environment that result in opportunities and threats
• E.g. Sun Microsystem made a bold decision to launch Carrera (new workstation) ahead of its competitor (Apollo) in spite of uncertain microprocessor supply from Motorola and its own software readiness
• Realized gap between the current state and the desired state
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 89-90, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
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20-Jul-14
Step 1: Identify and Diagnose the Problem
• Discrepancies detected by comparing current performance against:
‒ past performance
‒ current performance of other organizations, or
‒ future expected performance as determined by plans
• An opportunity to create positive future
• Diagnostic approach to identify causes for the gap
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 89-90, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
23
20-Jul-14
Step 1: Identify and Diagnose the Problem
• The following questions are useful to ask in this stage:
Is there a difference between what is actually happening and what should be happening?
How can you describe the deviation as specifically as possible?
What is/are the cause(s) of the deviation? What specific goals should be met? Which of these goals are absolutely critical to the success
of the decision?
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 89-90, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
24
20-Jul-14
Step 2: Generate Alternative Solutions
• Ready-made solutions ‒ Ideas that have been
seen or tried before
• Custom-made solutions ‒ New, creative solutions
designed specifically for the problem
• Generate alternative solutions based on the diagnostic findings
• Rely on past experience to generate solutions • Set aside mental-models of the world • Two-type of solutions:
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 90-91, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
25
20-Jul-14
Step 3: Evaluate Alternatives
• Evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative
• Evaluation based on these 4 criteria
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 91-94, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
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20-Jul-14
Step 3: Evaluate Alternatives
Legality •Do not violate any domestic or international laws or government regulations
Ethicalness •Do not unnecessarily harm any stakeholder group •Be clear about potential effects of their decisions
Economic Feasibility •Are the alternatives economically feasible? •Perform cost-benefit analysis of the various alternatives to determine the best net financial payoff
Practicality •Decide whether they have the capabilities and resources required to implement the alternative •Ensure the alternative does not threaten the attainment of other organizational goals
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
27
20-Jul-14
Step 4: Make the Choice
• Rank the various alternatives and make a decision
• Make sure all information is available
• In most instances, information is incomplete
• Avoid “paralysis by analysis” which lead to indecisiveness caused by too much analysis
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 94-95, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
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20-Jul-14
Step 4: Make the Choice
Satisficing Maximizing Optimizing
• Acceptable option, not necessarily the best
• Search for alternatives stop
• Why?
• laziness
• lack of time
Ideal approach if:
• consequences not huge
• decision making is fast paced
Best possible outcome
Greatest benefit at lowest cost and largest return
Time consuming because: thoroughly search
for complete alternatives
assess each alternative carefully
Achieve best possible balance among several goals
E.g. getting the best combination in terms of price, quality, durability
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
29
20-Jul-14
Step 5: Implement the Decision
• Assign middle manager to make follow-up decisions
• Provide sufficient resources
• Empower them to be accountable for their performance
‒ Link rewards on how well the decision is implemented
• Ensure what was decided was actually done
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 95-96, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
Steps for decision implementation:
1. Determine how things will look like when fully operational
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Step 5: Implement the Decision
2. Chronologically order the steps necessary to achieve a fully operational decision
3. List the resources and activities required to implement each step
4. Estimate the time needed for each step
5. Assign responsibility for each step to specific individuals BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 95-96, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
31
20-Jul-14
Step 6: Evaluate the Decision
• Collect quantifiable information:
‒ e.g. % increase in sales, accidents etc.
• Decision which is working can continue and be applied elsewhere
• Learn from feedback
• Negative feedback means:
‒ Implementation require more resources/thought or
‒ Decision was a bad one
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 96-97, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
Quiz
In almost every business situation, the quality of the decision is far more important than the speed at which the decision is made? True False
32
20-Jul-14
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
33
Is there such thing as the Best Decision?
Nothing guarantees a
“best” decision
A process in which a decision maker
carefully executes all stages of decision
making
Manager must follow procedures properly to yield the best possible
decision
Vigilance
20-Jul-14
The Best Decision
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 96-97, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
Influencing Organizational Environment
Tips in making/implementing decision:
34
Get sufficient rest, avoid
distraction and manage stress
20-Jul-14
Define consequences, collect relevant
data to be measured against
goals
Imagine the vision of the decision
Take responsibility for consequences of the decision (strength of
character)
Encourage challenge process to:
seek best knowledge but
eventually end the debate
act upon those decision
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
35
20-Jul-14
Barriers to Decision Making
Psychological Biases
Time Pressure
Social Realities
• Prior-Hypothesis Bias • Representativeness Bias • Illusion of Control • Framing Effects • Escalating Commitment • Discounting the Future
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 97-100, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
Prior-Hypothesis Bias
36
Strong prior belief about the relationship between two variables tend to make decisions based on those belief even when presented with evidence that their beliefs are wrong
20-Jul-14
Psychological Biases
Representative Bias Inappropriate generalization based on: ‒a small sample or ‒a single vivid case or episode
Illusion of control ‒People’s belief that they can influence events, even when they have no control over what will happen; E.g. gambling, over-confidence, overate the value of their experience etc.
Framing effects ‒A decision bias influenced by the way in which a problem or decision alternative is phrased or presented Focus on data that fit the manager’s
expectations
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Prepared by Dr. Kumaran Rajaram
Escalating the effect
37
Tendency to commit additional resources to a project even if evidence shows that the project is failing due to feeling of personal responsibility for a project
20-Jul-14
Psychological Biases
Discounting the future - A bias weighting short-term costs and benefits more heavily than longer-term costs and benefits E.g. Wall Street’s focus on quarterly earnings, reforestation cost that yield harvest in 60 years time
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Prepared by Dr. Kumaran Rajaram
38
20-Jul-14
Speed versus quality of decision making
Timing of decision making
Tactics for making good decision:
Time Pressure
Real-time information
Involve people or experts
Value differing opinions by taking realistic view of
conflict
If disagreements not resolved, top executive
make final decision BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
39
20-Jul-14
Social Realities
• Social Realities ‒ Interpersonal factors can affect decision-making
effectiveness
‒ Consider the preferences and reactions of many people (e.g. boss and stakeholders)
‒ Decision influenced by conflict among interested parties marked by:
‒ intensive social interactions
‒ bargaining
‒ politicking
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
40
20-Jul-14
Group Decision Making - Potential Problems
• Groupthink
‒ Group members avoid disagreement as they strive for consensus
‒ Does not develop appropriate criteria to evaluate alternatives
‒ Rally around one central manager such as CEO
‒ Commitment is based on emotional rather than objective assessment of action
• Goal displacement
‒ Occurs when group members lose sight of the original goal and a new, less important goal emerges
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
41
20-Jul-14
Group Decision Making - Advantages and Disadvantages
Advantages • Larger pool of information • Combined skills, competencies
and accumulated knowledge of members: ‒ intellectually stimulating ‒ more perspectives and
approaches • Avoid biases and errors • Higher probability of successful
decision implementation • Greater understanding and
stronger commitment from members
Disadvantages • Take much longer to make
decision • One person may dominates • Satisficing • Groupthink • Goal displacement due to
members’ different interests and preferences.
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
42
20-Jul-14
Managing Group Decision Making
Source : B & S, pp. 102
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Quiz
The three requirements for effective group decision making are an appropriate leadership style, the constructive use of disagreement and conflict, and the enhancement of creativity True False
43
20-Jul-14
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
44
20-Jul-14
Devil’s Advocacy and Dialectical Inquiry
• Devil’s advocate ‒ Assign a person to criticize ideas to
ensure the downsides are fully explored
‒ Lessen inhibitions about disagreeing ‒ Conflict is less personal and
emotional
• Dialectic ‒ A structured debate comparing two
conflicting courses of action ‒ E.g. one team present the case of
acquisition while another team opposes the acquisition
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 231, Chap 7 (Jones & George, 2011)
45
20-Jul-14
Cognitive Conflict and Affective Conflict
• Cognitive conflict ‒ Issue-based differences in
perspectives or judgments
‒ Voice legitimate differences of opinion and develop better ideas and problem solutions
• Affective conflict ‒ Emotional disagreement
directed towards other people
‒ Likely to be destructive because it can lead to anger, bitterness, goal-displacement and lower quality decision-making
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Diversity Among Decision Makers
Promote diversity in decision-making groups
46
Why?
• Improve quality of decisions from broader range of life experiences and options
• Less prone to groupthink because members differ from each other and subject to less pressure for uniformity
20-Jul-14
How?
• Include managers of both genders from various ethnic, national and functional backgrounds
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 231, Chap 7 (Jones & George, 2011)
Prepared by Dr. Kumaran Rajaram
47
20-Jul-14
Senge’s Principles for Creating a Learning Organization
• Quality of decision depends on innovative responses developed by a Learning Organization (LO)
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
48
20-Jul-14
Encouraging Creativity
Creation (bring new things
into being)
Synthesis (join two previous unrelated things)
Modification (improve something or
give it a new application)
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
How to encourage creativity?
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20-Jul-14
Encouraging Creativity
Read widely, try new experiences
Take a course
Talk to people
Simulate and challenge people intellectually
Listen to employee’s ideas and allow enough time to explore different idea
Put together groups of people with different styles of thinking and behaving
Get in touch with customers and bounce ideas around
Create a culture of encouraging and rewarding creativity within the organization
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 234, Chap 7 (Jones & George, 2011)
50
20-Jul-14
Group Decision Making Technique
Brainstorming • About 5 to 15 people meet
face-to-face to generate and debate a wide variety
of alternatives from which to form a decision
Nominal Group Technique
• Group members write down ideas and solutions, read their suggestions to the whole group and discus and rank the alternatives
Delphi Technique • Group members do not
meet face-to-face but respond in writing to
questions posed by the group leader
Group Decision Making
Technique
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Brainstorming technique:
a) A group of people meet together to generate a wide variety of alternatives b) Facilitator describes the problem
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Group members perform the followings:
Share ideas and generate alternative courses of action
Brainstorming
Do not criticize any alternatives until all have been listed “Piggyback” or build upon other’s suggestions, be innovative and radical Debate the pros and cons of each idea and develop a short list of good alternatives
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 105, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
An effective Crisis Management (CM) should include the following elements:
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Create CM team and dedicate budget to it Perform audits on threats, liabilities and early warning signals Communication on dealing with media, local communities, police and government officials Top management commitment through psychological and cultural actions
Decision Making in a Crisis
Integrate CM into planning and policies
Provide training and psychological support services regarding human and emotional impact of crises
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 107-109, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
53
What kinds of crises
could your company
face?
Can your company
detect a crisis in its early stages?
How can it benefit from a crisis after it
has passed?
How will it manage a crisis if one occurs?
20-Jul-14
Decision Making in a Crisis
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Refer to pg. 107-109, Chap 3 (Bateman & Snell, 2013)
54
20-Jul-14
Elements of a Crisis Plan
Strategic actions
Technical and
structural actions
Evaluation and
diagnostic actions
Communication actions
Psychological and cultural
actions
Elements of a Crisis Plan
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Quiz
Decision makers should presume that with a carefully made decision, things will go smoothly during implementation True False
55
20-Jul-14
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
56
20-Jul-14
Decision Making in a Crisis - Two Disasters
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Recap… takeaways.. (1/2)
1. What is decision-making
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20-Jul-14
3. Why managers avoid making decision?
4. Factors affecting decision making
7. Reasons for incomplete information
11. Six steps in decision-making
14. Psychological Biases
17. Group Decision Making a) Potential Problems b) Advantages/Disadvantages c) How to manage it?
2. Classical model of Decision Making
5. Lack of Structure 6. Comparison of Types of Decision
8. Certainty
& Uncertainty
9. Risk
10. Conflict 12. Influencing organizational Environment
13. Barriers to Decision Making
15. Time Pressure 16. Social Realities
18. Devil’s Advocacy and Dialectical Inquiry
19. Cognitive Conflict and affective Conflict
Continuation….. BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Recap… takeaways.. (2/2)
20. Cognitive conflict and
affective conflict
58
20-Jul-14
22. Senge’s Principles for creating a learning
organization
23. Encouraging Creativity
21. Diversity among decision makers
24. Group Decision Making Technique
25. Brainstorming
26. Decision Making in a
Crisis
27. Elements of a Crisis Plan
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15
Case Study
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The Wallingford Bowling Center Source: Bateman & Snell, page 112 to 113 Question •Apply the decision-making process (discussed during the seminar) to this case. What is the major problem facing Wallingford? List five specific alternative solutions that could be implemented to solve that major problem •As general manager of this company, how could you utilize and manage the group decision-making process and technique to improve company profits? Which employees would you include in the group?
BE 2601: Kumaran Rajaram (Course Coordinator), Adeline Tay, Lam Chow Loon and Alan Goh S1 AY 2014-15