© Workforce Planning Australia - The Hume Workforce Development Committee Hume Regional Development Australia Labour Market

© Workforce Planning Australia - www.workforceplanning.com.au

The Hume Workforce Development Committee

Hume Regional Development Australia

Labour Market Snapshot

Workforce Planning Australia | March 2012

It’s all about the Evidence........

What is a Labour Market Scan?

The approach for developing the Labour Market Snapshots considered a range of information as shown by the graphic below:

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The primary focus of the snapshots is on identifying Hume industry &

occupational growth trends.

The population, education &workforce participation levelsprovide context for regional

labour market analysis.

Level of

deta

il

Data Overview

Labour Market Data Sources

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The Labour Market Snapshots drew on multiple data sources. These include:

• Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS):

o Census Data, 2006

o Labour force Surveys

o Industry reports

• DEEWR:

o Skills Shortages List

o Regional profile information

• Hume:

o Workforce Development Committee Report

o Hume Strategy for Sustainable Communities

• Other:

o Skills Info Industry Reports

o Skills Victoria Enrolment data

o Monash CoPs Data on occupations

o Industry Skills Councils – Environmental Labour Market Scans

Quality and Limitations

The data challenges included:

1. Different definitions of industries / occupations between ABS, Industry Skills Councils and Monash.

– ‘Health Care and Social Assistance’ (ABS) vs Community Services & Health– Different terms used for occupations, ‘personal carers’ or ‘health aid’ etc.

2. Different Time periods

3. Old Data - ABS Census data is now 6 years old.

4. Lack of HUME region industry data particularly for industries where employers are predominantly private sector (e.g. manufacturing and Transport and Logistics)

5. Lack of regional Skills Shortage Data – DEEWR lists are at the State level

6. Changes in name and level of VET qualifications (training packages)

7. Poor sourcing of data – The data source and date were unclear

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Limitations on trend analysis

When available the 2011 ABS Census data should be compared with 2006 data to build a picture of emerging and declining occupations in Hume.

Key data includes:• Industry employed by Age and LGA

• Occupation by Age and LGA

• Education Levels by Age and LGA

• Main good and Services provided by employer by LGA

• Hours worked by occupation and Age

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Hume Labour Market

About Hume

• The Hume Region is comprised of four distinct and inter-connected sub regions that extend over 40,000 square kilometres of provincial northeast Victoria.

• The Region contains twelve local government areas (LGAs) and is characterised by a network of regional cities and centres located along major transport routes. There is no single dominant major regional city in the Hume Region.

• The four Hume sub regions are structured as follows: ― Central Hume: Alpine, Benalla, Mansfield and Wangaratta― Goulburn Valley: Greater Shepparton, Moira, Strathbogie and Campaspe― Lower Hume: Mitchell and Murrindindi― Upper Hume: Indigo, Towong and Wodonga

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Source: The Hume Strategy for sustainable communities 2010-2020, Skills Victoria.

Population profile

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Towong6,343

Wodonga36,432

Alpine12,866

Mansfield7,972

Hume Region BoundarySub-region BoundaryLocal Government Area (LGA) Boundary

Indigo16,111

Murrindindi13,505

Mitchell35,044

Strathbogie10,012

G Shepparton

Moira29,385

Wangaratta28,938

Benalla14,293

63,335

The total population of the Hume region is 274,236 people spread across 12 LGAs:

Source: ABS Census Data 2006

Population Growth Projection

• Significant population growth is expected in Mitchell, Wodonga and Greater Shepparton

• A drop in population is expected in Towong, Murrindindi and Strathbogie

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Source: Regional Managers Market Facilitation & ACFE October 2011

Workforce Participation Rates (Adult Population) by LGA

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Towong72% (2006)

Wodonga75%(2006)

Alpine71% (2006)

Mansfield72% (2006)


Indigo68%(2006)

Murrindindi 69% (2006)

Mitchell70% (2006)

Strathbogie70% (2006)

G Shepparton

Moira71% (2006)

Wangaratta75%(2006)

Benalla73%(2006)

72%(2006)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)Source: ABS Census Data 2006

Labour force (below 65) as percentage of total LGA population:

Unemployment Rate by LGA

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Towong3.7% (2006)

Wodonga5.3% (2006)

Alpine4.6% (2006)

Mansfield4.3% (2006)


Indigo3.7% (2006)

Murrindindi 4.2% (2006)

Mitchell 4.8% (2006)

Strathbogie 4.4%(2006)

G Shepparton

Moira4.7% (2006)

Wangaratta4.6% (2006)

Benalla5.7% (2006)

6.0% (2006)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)

xxx (2011)Source: ABS Census Data 2006

Employment by LGA and Industry

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• Retail Trade, Manufacturing & Health & Community Services are the largest employing industries in Hume.

• Greater Shepparton and Wodonga have the highest working population.

Source: Regional Managers Market Facilitation & ACFE October 2011

Difficult to fill Occupations

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Occupations – Difficult to fill in North Eastern VictoriaBachelor and Higher VET VET and other

General Medical Practitioners Sales Reps

Early Childhood Teachers Bar Attendants and Baristas

Chefs* Truck Drivers*

Motor Mechanics* Sales Assistants (General)*

Reg Nurses* Motor Vehicle and Vehicle parts salespersons

Structural Steel and Welding Trades Workers

Child carers

Real Estate Sales Agents* General Clerks*

Balers and Pastry Cooks Housekeepers

Source: DEEWR, North Eastern Victoria Priority Employment Area Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences (Aug 2011) (* Aug 2010)

Education

Percentage of Population with Higher Level Qualification

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Note: Higher Level Qualification= University degree level.


Towong10%

Wodonga10%

Alpine11%

Mansfield11%

Indigo

14%

Murrindindi12%

Mitchell8%

Strathbogie9%

G Shepparton

Moira6%

Wangaratta10%

Benalla10%

9%

Highest level of Educational Attainment

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Hume Highest Level of Educational Attainment

Level 20-24 (%) 25-29 (%) Total whole population(%)

Bachelor Degree or Above 7% 16% 10%

Adv Diploma/ Diploma/Certificate

27% 31% 23%

School Education 56% 43% 53%

Not Stated etc 8% 7% 12%


Hume VET Enrolments

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Accommodation and Food ServicesAdministrative and Support Services

Agriculture, Forestry and FishingArts and Recreation Services

ConstructionEducation and Training

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste ServicesFinancial and Insurance Services

Health Care and Social AssistanceInformation Media and Telecommunications

ManufacturingMining

Other ServicesProfessional, Scientific and Technical Services

Public Administration and SafetyRental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

Retail TradeTransport, Postal and Warehousing

Wholesale Trade

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000

20082011

Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

• Construction, Health & Community Services, Manufacturing have seen significant increases in VET enrolments.

VET Enrolments Age Profile

• The majority of VET enrolments are in the 15-19 year old age group. This group has seen significant growth over the period to 2011.

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15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 and over

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

20082011


Diversity of VET enrolments

• The diversity of enrolments has increased with greater numbers of CALD and indigenous students.

• Disabled enrolments has slightly declined.

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Disabled CALD Indigenous0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

20082011


© Workforce Planning Australia - www.workforceplanning.com.au

Industry Specific Labour Market Scans

ManufacturingTransport & LogisticsHeath and Community Services

Manufacturing

Manufacturing Employment Overview• Over the last decade, employment in the

Manufacturing industry has decreased by 8.3% (86,000) Australia wide.

• In Hume Manufacturing employment is expected to decline over the period to 2016.

• There will be growth in Product Assemblers and other main employing occupations will remain steady to 2015-16.

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National Manufacturing Employment (‘000)- 2001-2011

2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-616

16.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

19

19.5

20

20.5

21

Manufacturing Employment Hume

Struc Steel & Welding Trades

Supply & Distrib. Managers

Metal Fitters & Machinists

ICT Managers

Plastics Prod. Machine Ops

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2

Manufacturing Occupations Hume

2010-12015-6

Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria.Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011

Manufacturing Education Overview

• There has been an increase in VET enrolments for the industry in Hume (driven by Cert IV, III, II, I levels).

• There has been significant growth in VET course enrolments from the 50-54 and 55-59 age groups.

• There has been an increase in the diversity of enrolments in Hume Manufacturing. The greatest increase has been in the proportion of CALD students.

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Certificate I

Certificate II

Certificate III

Certificate IV

Diploma

020

040

060

080

010

0012

0014

0016

0018

00

Enrolment Course Level

20082011

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 and over

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 VET Enrolments Age

20082011

Indigenous Disabled CALD0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9% Diversity of Enrolments

20082011


Workforce Planning Considerations

1. What are the occupations that will experience greatest growth / decline over the next 10 years?

2. What is driving the increase in VET course enrolments over the period 2008-2011 given Manufacturing is a declining industry?

3. What is driving the growth in VET course enrolments in mature aged workers (50-60 years)?

4. What is driving the increase in the diversity of course enrolments? Espcecially in the CALD students?

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Transport & Logistics

Transport & Logistics Employment Overview

• National T & L Employment is projected to grow at 2.2% (stronger then all industries projection of 1.8%).

• T & L employment in Hume is expected to grow and level out over the period to 2015. (Average annual growth of 4%.)

• Gradual growth is expected in all T & L occupations (significant increase in truck drivers relative to other occupations).

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Projected National Employment Growth (% pa)- 2011-15

2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-60

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3 T & L Employment Hume

Truck Drivers

Couriers & Postal Deliverers

Bus & Coach Drivers

Transport Services Managers

Forklift Drivers

Storepersons

Automobile Drivers

Sales Assistants (General)

Train & Tram Drivers

Supply & Distrib. Managers

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

T & L Occupations Hume

2010-12014-5


Transport & Logistics Education Overview• There has been an increase in VET

enrolments in T & L in Hume. (Cert III and diploma level).

• There has been significant growth in VET course enrolments from the 15-19 and 20-24 year old age groups.

• The diversity of enrolments has increased. The greatest increase has come from the proportion of CALD students.

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Certificate I

Certificate II

Certificate III

Certificate IV

Diploma

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400


20082011

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 and over

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500 VET Enrolments Age

20082011

Disabled Indigenous CALD0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6% Diversity of Enrolments

20082011



1. What is driving growth stronger then the national average in the Hume Transport & Logistics industry? Have all factors been considered?

2. What has driven the increase in VET course enrolments over 2008-2011? o Growth in youth age groups of 15-19 and 20-24?o Increase in diversity of enrolments? WELL Program etc.?o Decrease in driver VET enrolments against this trend? Changes to training package /

occupational requirements?

3. Are youth following a pathway in the industry? Starting in operational / administrative positions and transitioning to driver roles?

4. Is there a strategy to attract, recruit and retain truck drivers in the industry?

5. What factors are inhibiting youth age groups in the driver occupations? E.g. Insurance, cost, training etc.?

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Health & Community Services

Health & Community Services Employment Overview

• National H & CS employment is forecast to grow by 4.7% over the next 5 years.

• Hume H & CS employment is expected to grow slightly and level out over the same period.

• There will be significant growth in Registered Nurses and Aged Carers. (All other occupations will generally remain steady).

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2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-60

5

10

15

20

25

Hume H & CS Employment

Registered Nurses

Child Carers

Receptionists

Kitchenhands

Welfare Support Workers

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Hume H & CS Occupations

2010-12015-6

Projected National Employment Growth (% pa)- 2011 to 2015


Health & Community Services Education Overview

• There has been an increase in VET enrolments in H & CS in Hume. (Cert III and diploma level).

• There has been significant growth in VET course enrolments from the 15-19 and 40-44 year old age groups.

• The diversity of enrolments has remained constant and only slightly increased.

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15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 and over

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

VET Enrolments Age

20082011

Advanced Diploma

Certificate II

Certificate III

Certificate IV

Diploma

020

040

060

080

010

0012

0014

0016

0018

0020

00


20082011

Disabled Indigenous CALD0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Diversity of Enrolments

20082011



1. What is driving growth on par or above the national average in the Hume Health & Community Services industry? Have all factors been considered?

2. What has driven the increase in VET course enrolments over 2008-2012? – Growth in youth age groups of 15-19 and 20-24?– Increase in diversity of enrolments? WELL Program etc.?– Diversity of enrolments has remained stable. Are there any strategies in place to increase

diversity?

3. Is there a strategy to attract, recruit and retain nurses and aged carers in the industry?

4. Are there other smaller occupations that are showing growth at the local level?

5. Which occupations are employers reporting local skill shortages or recruitment difficulties?

6. What is the nature of the shortages/or difficulties? E.g. Are they seasonal? In pockets? For certain shifts or positions? Specific regions? Turnover related?

7. Are there clear pathways into these occupations and from these occupations to others?

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Questions?

Contact Us

John Sheahan Julie Sloan Tyson Corrigan

General Manager Founder and Director of Strategy

Associate

(03) 9206 8004 (03) 9206 8002 (03) 9206 8010

Further details:

www.workforceplanning.com.au

[email protected]

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© Workforce Planning Australia, 2012

http://www.workforceplanning.com.au/

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© Workforce Planning Australia - The Hume Workforce Development Committee Hume Regional Development Australia Labour Market