““War is politics…” Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831)

““War is politics…” Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831)

• War in History

Why War?Why War?

• Resources

• Territory

–Land

–Access to the sea

• Ethnicity

• Religion

• Ideology

Major War Major War Major War Major War

•   Event Event FromFrom ToTo Low Low  HighHigh

Warring States Era, ChinaWarring States Era, China BC 475BC 475 BC 221BC 221 10 m10 m 10 m10 m

An Shi Rebellion, ChinaAn Shi Rebellion, China 756756 763763 36 m36 m 36 m36 m

Mongol Conquests, Europe, AsiaMongol Conquests, Europe, Asia 12071207 12791279 30 m30 m 60 m60 m

Thirty Years WarThirty Years War 16181618 16481648 3 m3 m 11.5 m11.5 m

Napoleonic WarsNapoleonic Wars 18041804 18151815 3.5 m3.5 m 16 m16 m

Taiping Rebellion, ChinaTaiping Rebellion, China 18511851 18641864 20 m20 m 50 m50 m

US Civil WarUS Civil War 18611861 18651865 618,000618,000 970,000970,000

Russian Civil WarRussian Civil War 19171917 19211921 5m5m 9 m9 m

WW I (high includes Spanish Flu)WW I (high includes Spanish Flu) 19141914 19181918 15 m15 m 66 m66 m

More Major WarMore Major WarMore Major WarMore Major War

Chinese Civil WarChinese Civil War 19451945 19491949 1.3 m1.3 m 6. 1 m6. 1 m

WW IIWW II 19391939 19451945 60 m60 m 72 m72 m

Viet Nam War Viet Nam War 19451945 19751975 2.5 m2.5 m 5 m5 m

Korean WarKorean War 19501950 19531953 2.5 m2.5 m 3.5 m3.5 m

Nigerian Civil WarNigerian Civil War 19671967 19701970 1 m1 m 1 m1 m

Afghan Civil WarAfghan Civil War 19791979 PresentPresent 1.5 m1.5 m 2.0 m2.0 m

Iran-Iraq WarIran-Iraq War 19801980 19881988 1.0 m1.0 m 1.0 m1.0 m

Congo Civil WarCongo Civil War 19941994 19971997 800,000800,000 800,000800,000

Second Congo WarSecond Congo War 19981998 20032003 3.8m3.8m 13.8 13.8

Causes of War and PeaceCauses of War and Peace

1. Human Nature

2. Balance of power

3. Power Transition/Long Cycle

4. Nuclear Revolution

5. Interdependence

6. Democratic Peace

1. Human Nature?1. Human Nature?1. Human Nature?1. Human Nature?

• Thomas Hobbes Thomas Hobbes 1588-16791588-1679

Jean-Jacques Jean-Jacques Rousseau Rousseau

1712-17881712-1788

London 1940London 1940

Stalingrad 1943Stalingrad 1943

Berlin 1945Berlin 1945

Tokyo 1945Tokyo 1945

Warsaw 1945Warsaw 1945

Bergen-BelsonBergen-Belson

HiroshimaHiroshima

2. Balance of Power 2. Balance of Power Concert of Europe 1815-1914Concert of Europe 1815-1914

2. Balance of Power 2. Balance of Power Concert of Europe 1815-1914Concert of Europe 1815-1914

EnglandEngland

RussiaRussia Prussia/GermanyPrussia/Germany

FranceFrance Austria Austria HungaryHungary

BipolarityBipolarityThe Cold War Balance of Power The Cold War Balance of Power

BipolarityBipolarityThe Cold War Balance of Power The Cold War Balance of Power IsraelIsrael Syria/EgyptSyria/Egypt

EthiopiaEthiopia SomaliaSomalia

TaiwanTaiwan ChinaChina

S. KoreaS. Korea N. KoreaN. Korea

S. Viet NamS. Viet Nam N. Viet NamN. Viet Nam

W. BerlinW. Berlin E. BerlinE. Berlin

W. GermanyW. Germany E. GermanyE. Germany

Britain/France/JapanBritain/France/Japan Poland/Poland/CzechCzech

USUS USSRUSSR

3. Long Cycle Theory 3. Long Cycle Theory (Power Transition)(Power Transition)

3. Long Cycle Theory 3. Long Cycle Theory (Power Transition)(Power Transition)

Long Cycle Four: 1792-1914Long Cycle Four: 1792-1914Long Cycle Four: 1792-1914Long Cycle Four: 1792-1914

•

PowerPower

DominanceDominanceDeclineDecline

••

WarWar England England WW I beginsWW I begins•

1792-18151792-1815 1850 1850 19141914 Napoleonic WarsNapoleonic Wars decine beginsdecine begins

• TimeTime

Long Cycle Five: 1914-?Long Cycle Five: 1914-?Long Cycle Five: 1914-?Long Cycle Five: 1914-?

• PowerPower

DominanceDominance DeclineDecline

• WarWar U.S. U.S. US v. China?US v. China?

1914-19451914-1945 1973 decline 1973 decline 20?? 20?? • beginsbegins

TimeTime• Source for Cycles 1-4: George Modelski, Source for Cycles 1-4: George Modelski, Long Cycles in World PoliticsLong Cycles in World Politics, Seattle, University of , Seattle, University of

Washington Press, 1987.Washington Press, 1987.

4. Nuclear Revolution4. Nuclear Revolution4. Nuclear Revolution4. Nuclear Revolution

• HiroshimaHiroshima NagasakiNagasaki

The Problems?The Problems?

• North Korea: Three nuclear tests– October 9, 2006– May 25, 2009– February 12, 2013

• Iran: No tests yet, but– 2007 US National Intelligence Estimate– 2013 IAEA Report– 2013 BBC Analysis

Irrationality?Irrationality?Irrationality?Irrationality?

• Saddam Hussein Saddam Hussein Ahmadinejad Kim Jong-UnAhmadinejad Kim Jong-Un

5. Interdependence5. InterdependenceWorld Peace?World Peace?

5. Interdependence5. InterdependenceWorld Peace?World Peace?

World Peace?World Peace?World Peace?World Peace?

Wal-Mart China

Welcome to ChinaWelcome to China

Welcome to the USWelcome to the US

Welcome to New YorkWelcome to New York

6. Democratization6. Democratization6. Democratization6. Democratization

• Map of World Democracies from from Freedom HouseFreedom House

• Democracies don’t fight each otherDemocracies don’t fight each other

• But democracies do fight othersBut democracies do fight others

Emerging Democracies?Emerging Democracies?Emerging Democracies?Emerging Democracies?• Hitler, Tojo, MilosevicHitler, Tojo, Milosevic