Energy Analysis

Mellie Pullman ISQA 511

Overview

Primary Energy Sources Current Oregon Statistics Analysis of different energy related

investments Case Analysis of solar photovoltaic

installation

Ideal Energy Resource

Fuel Sources for Electric PowerOregon vs. US (2005) Oregon

(trillion BTU)› Coal: 35.4› Natural Gas: 89.8› Petroleum: 1› Nuclear: 0› Hydroelectric:

309.5› Biomass,

Geothermal, Solar, and Wind: 14.8.

United States (trillion BTU)› Coal: 20,737› Natural Gas:

6035.8› Petroleum: 2469› Nuclear: 8149› Hydroelectric: 2670› Biomass,

Geothermal, Solar, and Wind: 1,018

Challenge of Balancing the Power Grid in Oregon

Renewable Energy Growth –non Hydro› Independent Power Producers

(Aug 10-Aug 11)

OR 389-482 (megaWh) wind (362-455)

WA 266-366 (megaWh) wind (240-359)

Challenge of Balancing the Power Grid in Oregon

Electric Energy Use patterns throughout the year

The ability to get wind power to the market is dependent on water flow conditions:Low Water Flow• Wind helps reduce import of other electricity sources (on-peak & off-peak)• Wind provides Increased utility export opportunitiesAverage Flow• Wind increases utility export opportunities to the limit of installedgeneration/tie-linesHigh Flow• Wind has virtually no value once tie-lines saturated with wind Kwh

Integrating Wind & Water in NW

Smart Grid

Lighting Comparison

Lamp Efficacy

(lumens/watt) Lifetime (hours)

Standard Incandescent 10-17 750-2500

Tungsten halogen 12-22 2000-4000

Compact Fluorescent 50-70 10,000

Straight Tube Fluorescent 30-110 7,000-24,000

Warm White LED 27-54 35,000-50,000 SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

Cost Analysis

LED Light Bulb › $17.97 cost› 8.6 Watts› 50,000 hour life› 429 Lumens output

Compact Fluorescent bulb› 4 pack = $5.85› 9 Watts› 10,000 hour life› 550 lumens output

Cost of electricity = $.10/kWhLabor cost for bulb replacement = $4/bulb

Compare the cost of using the 2 bulb technologies for 50,000 hours

Lighting Investment Problem

LED CFL

Purchase price, $/Lamp $ 17.97 $ 1.46

Hours of operation 50,000 50,000

Lamp life 50,000 10,000

Lamps for 50,000 hours 1 5

Lamp cost for 50,000 hours $ 17.97 $ 7.31

Power, watts 8.6 9.0

Energy for 50,000 hours, kWh 430 450

Energy Cost , $/kWh $ 0.100 $ 0.100

Energy Cost for 50,000 hours, $ $ 43.00 $ 45.00

Bulb Replacement Cost, $/bulb $ 4.00 $ 4.00

Bulb Replacement Cost for 50,000 hours, $ $ 4.00 $ 20.00

Total cost for 50,000 hours $ 64.97 $ 72.31

Hours Operation x Power/1000

Class Cost Analysis Problem

Standard Incandescent bulb› 4 pack = $1.27› 60 Watts› 1,000 hour life› 860 Lumens output

Compact Fluorescent bulb› 4 pack = $5.85› 9 Watts› 10,000 hour life› 550 lumens output

Cost of electricity = $.10/kWhCompare the cost of using the different bulb

technologies for 10,000 hours.How many hours does it take to break even

with CFL?

Home or Commercial Energy AuditingSupport with a process /value stream map to improve efficiency

Estimate some of your daily appliance use

Appliance Power(Watts

)

Average

Usage(Hours/

Day)

Consumption

(KWh/Day)

Kitchen Appliances

Cooker stove 3000 0.6 1.8 Cooker Oven 5000 0.4 2

Cooker Microwave

1700 0.2 0.34

Grill 1000 0.1 0.1 Barbeque 3000 0.01 0.03

Extractor Fan 200 0.3 0.06 Dish Washer 1000 3 3

Washing Machine

1000 1.5 1.5

Spin Dryer 3000 1 3 Refrigerator 300 4 1.2

Freezer 400 4 1.6 Food Mixer 500 0.04 0.02

Kettle 3000 0.25 0.75 Coffee Maker 800 0.25 0.2

Iron 2000 0.25 0.5 Toaster 1000 0.02 0.02 Garbage Disposal

500 0.04 0.02

Appliance Power(Watts)

AverageUsage(Hours/

Day)

Consumption(KWh/Day)

Personal Care

Hair Dryer 1500 0.05 0.075 Hot Rollers 350 0.1 0.035

Shaver 13 0.05 0.00065 Toothbrush 13 0.05 0.025

Clock 3 24 0.072Computer

Equipment Desktop 300 3 0.9 Laptop 100 2 0.2 Printer 200 0.1 0.02

Scanner 100 0.04 0.004 Fax 60 0.1 0.006

Broadband Equipment

10 24 0.24

Entertainment Equipment

Television (2 Sets) 600 5 3.0

DVD 200 1 0.2 Audio Equipment 100 1 0.1

Video Games 50 1 0.05

Standby Modes

TV 3 24 0.072 DVD 3 24 0.072 Radio 3 24 0.072

Set top Box 3 24 0.072 Fax Machine 3 24 0.072

Cordless phones (4) 12 24 0.288

Answering Machine 3 24 0.072

Computer 6 24 0.144 Printer 3 24 0.072

Kitchen Appliances (3)

9 25 0.225

Radio Alarm Clock 5 24 0.12

Class Exercise

Just considering your kitchen and living room:› Identify the number of appliance› Determine your hours of operation and the

watts used.

Heating & Cooling Analysis

Need to know your heating degree days or the days where the temperature is below 65 F, summed cumulatively for the year (you can also get cooling degree days)

http://www.degreedays.net/ Example: Portland = 4718 DDs

Insulation vs. Heating Cost

Economic R-value

TC  = CIRT  + CfQ y  Y

EF

 ERV  =√8760 Cf  A  ( T𝒊−To ) Y  EF  CI  

CI= installed Cost of per R-value of insulationCf= fuel cost, $/BTUQY= annual heat loss, BTU/yrY= years remaining of useful building life to youEf= Furnace Efficiency (%/100)

Investing in more insulation

A Portland Four Square Home owner is considering adding blown insulation to a 1000 sqft attic space (R value = 3R/inch)

Marginal cost of natural gas = $1.31 per therm

Cost of insulation = $.0425 per R for each square foot

Assuming a building life of 30 years and a furnace efficiency of 85%. What is the economic R-value to install?

Payback period of investment?

Calculation ERV

CI 0.0425 Cost of Insulation

Cf 0.0000131 Cost of fuel ( therm = 100000 BTUs)A 1 square footHDD 4718 Average Yearly Degree days

Ti- To 12.93 HDD/365 daysY 30 Building life

Ef 0.85 Furnace Efficiency

ERV

35.1 SQRT (8760*Cf*A*(Ti-To)*Y/(Ef Ct)) From Energy Chapter pg. 30

Calculation of Cost Savings:

Existing Ceiling Energy Use Insulation Depth = 35.1 R/3 R/inch =12 inch Insulation Cost = $.0425/R (35 R)*1000sq ft= $1487.5Assume existing ceiling R= 4Q existing = A* average DD/day/R= 1000*12.93/4= 3235 BTU/hrAdjust for furnace and estimate annual heat

loss= (3235/.85) *(24*365/100,000 Btu/therm)= 333.4 therms per year

@ $1.31/therm= $437

Calculation of Cost SavingsNew Ceiling Energy Use

Q new= A* average DD/day/R= 1000*12.93/39= 331 BTU/hrAdjust for furnace and estimate annual

heat loss= (3235/.85) *(24*365/100,000 Btu/therm)= 34 therms

@$1.31 /therm= $44.79

2011 Auto Statistics

Car Sticker $

Average MPG

Kwh/100 miles

Ford Escape 30,570 34 Hybrid

Toyota Prius 26,400 44 Hybrid

Nissan Leaf 32,780 35 Electric

Toyota Highlander

37,305 17 Traditional

Comparisons

Assume that you drive the same amount of miles with each car (12,000 miles or your choice)› Calculate gallons of gas or kwh of electricity used per year.

Assume that gas will cost $4/gal and electricity is $.12/kWh › Translate your gas or electric use into $

Calculate your total Life Cycle Cost of your choices (estimate the total life of your car)› Sticker plus gas cost for say 10 to 15 years of ownership› Calculate the breakeven miles

StickerA + fuelA $/mi (M miles)=Sticker B+fuel B $/mi (M miles)Solver for M.

Case Development

Solar Photovoltaic projects are popular Opportunity to integrate

› Forecasting methods Seasonal adjustment Trend adjusted exp. Smoothing

› Solar Radiation data is available for many cities in the US to estimate energy generation

› Break-even, return on investment calculations› Implications of policy shifts to remove

incentives at different levels. Discussion points

Case Story

A sustainability manager at a brewery in Bend, OR has energy use and photovoltaic system energy generation data for comparable Portland brewer.

Assuming similar energy needs and a similar 4.7 KW photovoltaic system, how can she use this data to calculate the daily energy flows (in or out) and the financial benefits of the system.

Additional information provided Current cost of

system All relevant

incentives Net-metering rate

per kilowatt-hour from local utility

Daily energy use and energy generated for one year.

Appendix: Portland Energy Data(Available in Spreadsheet Solar Home Case Data.xls)

Daily Data: August 31, 2010 to August 31, 2011

Date & Time Electricity Use Solar Generation Net from/to Grid

kilowatthours kilowatthours kilowatthours

Totals for the year 8165.38 4069.10 4140.88

8/31/2010 1:00 10.39 4.80 5.60

9/1/2010 1:00 12.02 7.41 4.62

9/2/2010 1:00 10.51 23.44 -12.93

9/3/2010 1:00 14.48 21.55 -7.06

9/4/2010 1:00 11.32 18.60 -7.28

9/5/2010 1:00 10.44 10.13 0.30

9/6/2010 1:00 13.57 22.15 -8.58

9/7/2010 1:00 8.92 5.30 3.62

9/8/2010 1:00 11.39 11.19 0.20

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ANNUALOREGONASTORIA 3 3 3 3 3 3 6 6 8 5 3 3 38BURNS 5 6 6 5 9 12 19 20 16 12 6 5 120EUGENE 2 3 3 4 6 8 16 14 12 5 2 1 75MEACHAM 3 3 3 4 6 9 20 18 13 8 4 3 94MEDFORD 3 4 5 6 9 13 23 22 18 10 3 2 117PENDLETON 2 3 5 5 8 10 19 18 15 10 4 3 101PORTLAND 3 3 3 3 5 6 13 11 10 5 3 2 68SALEM 3 3 4 4 6 7 15 14 11 6 3 2 77SEXTON SUMMIT 5 4 5 6 9 13 23 21 17 11 6 5 126

Number of Sunny Days in Oregon Cities

Daily Average Global Data (2004 -10)

average daily KWhr/meter^2 per Day

Portland-PSU, OR Latitude: 45.51 degrees; Longitude: 122.69 degrees and Altitude: 70 metersYear\Mth Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Oct Nov Dec Yearly2004 ---- 1.91* 3.29 4.83 4.48 5.77 6.20 4.95 3.49

2.31 1.28 0.83* ----2005 1.15 2.47 2.87 3.60 4.38 4.92 6.37 5.66 4.10

1.95 1.34 0.84 3.312006 0.76 2.00 2.63 4.35 5.27 5.66 6.25 5.46 4.27

2.49 0.90 0.95 3.422007 1.28 1.50 2.52 3.87 5.65 5.51 5.87 4.95 3.75

2.02 1.39 0.63 3.252008 1.00 1.94 2.52 3.74 4.25 5.24 6.07 4.58 4.15

2.38 1.06 0.79 3.152009 1.25 1.77 2.47 4.24 5.98 5.11 6.25 4.52 3.84

1.98 1.15 0.99 3.302010 0.78 1.88 2.76 3.85 4.62 4.71 5.95 4.82 3.21

2.14 1.00 0.69 3.04Average 1.04 1.92 2.72 4.07 4.95 5.28 6.14 4.99 3.83

2.18 1.16 0.82 3.26% SD 22 15 11 11 14 7 3 9 10

10 16 16 4Values in average daily KWhr/meter^2 per Day* Less than 15 days of data in month. Univ. of Oregon Solar Radiation Monitoring Lab.Bend-SSE, OR. Latitude: 44.06 degrees; Longitude: 121.31 degrees and Altitude: 1124 metersYear\Mth Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Oct Nov Dec Yearly2004 ---- 2.67 3.82 5.36 5.91 6.89 7.15 5.64 4.80

3.12 1.88 1.26 ----2005 1.37 2.64 3.62 4.57 5.22 6.52 7.32 6.54 4.97

3.35 1.66 1.30 4.092006 1.32 2.65 3.52 5.07 6.14 6.68 7.24 6.26 5.01

3.47 1.80 1.41 4.222007 1.53 2.20 3.92 5.05 6.63 6.74 6.73 6.45 4.99

3.24 1.96 1.28 4.232008 1.68 2.80 4.11 5.27 5.37 7.28 7.16 6.18 5.08

3.21 1.64* 1.44 4.272009 1.78 2.41 3.71 5.24 6.70 6.70 7.30 6.11 5.08

2.97 2.06 1.29 4.292010 1.34 2.41 4.04 4.94 5.88 6.55 7.29 6.28 4.39*

3.18 1.80 1.24 4.12Average 1.50 2.54 3.82 5.07 5.98 6.77 7.17 6.21 4.90

3.22 1.83 1.32 4.20% SD 13 8 6 5 9 4 3 5 5

5 8 6 2Values in average daily KWhr/meter^2 per Day * Less than 15 days of data in month.

Univ. of Oregon Solar Radiation Monitoring Lab.Data from: http://solardat.uoregon.edu/SelectCumulativeSummary.html

Tasks for Case

Questions Plot the existing data and using the most

appropriate method, create a forecast of 365 days worth of data for Portland, OR. (use the existing data for solar radiation generation for that facility and a forecast method that will create an average baseline).

Create monthly seasonal indices to adjust the Portland forecast data to Bend and recalculate the energy needs of the Bend Brewery.

Tasks-continues

Calculate the break-even point for both the Portland and Bend breweries, considering how the capital improvement to the facility and return on investment factor into your decision.

If the Oregon State and Federal Tax incentives are eliminated but Energy Trust’s incentives continue to subsidize solar projects, how do your financial numbers change?

How does the scenario in question 4 change if electricity prices double (on average) in the next 20 years?