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The twin-cycle hypothesis: type 2 diabetes
Positive calorie balance
↑ liver fat
↑ basal insulin secretion
Resistance to insulin control of glucose
↑ plasma glucose
Liver cycle
Pre-existing insulin resistance++
Taylor, Diabetologia 2008; 51: 1781
The twin-cycle hypothesis: type 2 diabetes
Positive calorie balance
↑ liver fat
↑ basal insulin secretion
Resistance to insulin control of glucose
↑ VLDL-TG
↑ plasma glucose
Liver cycle
Pancreas cycle ↑ islet fat
Pre-existing insulin resistance++
↓ acute insulin response to food
Taylor, Diabetologia 2008; 51: 1781
The twin-cycle hypothesis: type 2 diabetes
Positive calorie balance
↑ liver fat
↑ basal insulin secretion
Resistance to insulin control of glucose
↑ VLDL-TG
↑ ↑ plasma glucose
Liver cycle
Pancreas cycle ↑ islet fat
Pre-existing insulin resistance++
↓ acute insulin response to food
Taylor, Diabetologia 2008; 51: 1781
Twin cycles grind on over at least a decade –
But the rapid rise in plasma glucose occurs over ~18 months
Decrease fat –normalise the insulin response to eating
Decrease fat –improve insulin action and normalise overnight blood sugar
The twin cycle hypothesis
Substantial weight loss in people with type 2 diabetes will:
and
Liver Pancreas
The Counterpoint Study
Weeks0 1 4 8
Very low calorie diet(~800 kcal/day)
Tests of: Beta cell functionLiver and muscle insulin sensitivityLiver and pancreas fat
(Counteracting Pancreatic inhibitiOn of INsulin secretion by Triglyceride)
New magnetic resonance method allows measurement of organ fat content
Bland-Altman reproducibility coefficients: Liver 0.5; Pancreas 0.9
Method based on 3-point Dixon developed by Dr Kieren Hollingsworth
Detailed anatomical MRI scan Fat map co-localised with scan
Body weight change during Counterpoint
0 2 4 6 8
80
90
100
110
120
Week
Wei
ght
(kg)
Total loss of 15.3 ± 1.2 kg
Lim et al, Diabetologia 2011
Matched non-DM controlsstudied at one time point
Counterpoint: Effect of VLCD on fasting glucose
0 2 4 6 8
4
6
8
10
Week
Fast
ing
plas
ma
gluc
ose
(mm
ol/l) 9.2 → 5.9 mmol/l (p=0.003)
Lim et al, Diabetologia 2011
All hypoglycaemic agents stopped
30% decrease after 1st week
Week 0 Week 1 Week 4 Week 80
5
10
15
20Li
ver f
at c
onte
nt(%
)
Week 0 Week 1 Week 4 Week 80
20
40
60
80
100
% In
sulin
sup
pres
sion
of H
GP
Dotted red lines show non-diabetic matched control data
As liver fat normalised -so did liver insulin sensitivity
Lim et al, Diabetologia 2011
Liver fat and liver insulin sensitivity - Counterpoint
Colour key:100%
0%
Change in liver fat during 8 weeks of low calorie diet and reversal of Type 2 diabetes to normal
Baseline scan –liver is green
= 36% liver fat
8 weeks scan –liver is black
= 2% liver fat
0
2
4
6
8
10
M v
alue
(mg.
kgff
m-1
.min
-1)
Muscle insulin sensitivity assessed by isoglycaemichyperinsulaemic clamp during Counterpoint
Lim et al, Diabetologia 2011
No change in muscle despite reversal of diabetes
0 1 4 8Week
Beta cell function: Control subjectsStepped Insulin Secretion Test with Arginine (SISTA)
-20 0 20 40 60 80
4
8
12
16 Arginine
Time (min)
Pla
sma
gluc
ose
(mm
ol/l)
-20 0 20 40 60 80
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
Time (min)
ISR
(nm
ol/m
in/m
2 )
Lim et al, Diabetologia 2011
IV glucose infused to achieve this plasma glucose profile:
Observed insulin secretion rate:
Beta cell function: Diabetes subjects
-20 0 20 40 60 80
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
Time (min)
ISR
(nm
ol/m
in/m
2 )
Baseline
Lim et al, Diabetologia 2011
No first phase insulin secretion
Beta cell function: Diabetes subjects
Week 1
-20 0 20 40 60 80
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
Time (min)
ISR
(nm
ol/m
in/m
2 )
Lim et al, Diabetologia 2011
Beta cell function: Diabetes subjects
Week 4
-20 0 20 40 60 80
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
Time (min)
ISR
(nm
ol/m
in/m
2 )
Lim et al, Diabetologia 2011
Beta cell function: Diabetes subjects
Week 8
-20 0 20 40 60 80
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
Time (min)
ISR
(nm
ol/m
in/m
2 )
Lim et al, Diabetologia 2011
Change in beta-cell functionand pancreas fat
Lim et al. Diabetologia 2011; 54: 2506–2514
0 2 4 6 8Week
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Firs
t pha
se in
sulin
resp
onse
(nm
ol/m
in/m
2 )
0 2 4 6 8Week
3
6
9
12
Panc
reas
fat c
onte
nt (%
)
Type 2 diabetes is a simple condition of fat excess to which some people are more susceptible than others
Health-motivated people can reverse their diabetes
This knowledge must not be used as a stick with which to beat people who do not want to change their lives
Reversing the twin cycles of type 2 diabetes
Decrease fat –normalise the insulin response to eating
Decrease fat –improve insulin action and normalise overnight blood sugar
The twin cycle hypothesis
Substantial weight loss in people with type 2 diabetes will:
and
Liver Pancreas
0 2 4 6 80
5
10
15
20Fa
t %
0 2 4 6 80
5
10
15
Insu
lin s
ensi
tivity
Inde
x
0 2 4 6 80.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
a
Week
Firs
t pha
sein
sulin
sec
retio
n
0 2 4 6 83
6
9
12
Week
Fat %
The Counterpoint study – Type 2 diabetes, 800kcal diet
Liver
Pancreas
0 2 4 6 8
4
6
8
10
WeekFa
stin
g gl
ucos
e(m
mol
/l)
Reversibility of type 2 diabetes
The pathophysiological defects in the liver and pancreas are reversible –if diabetes duration <4yr
Week 0 Week 1 Week 4 Week 80
20
40
60
80
100
% In
sulin
sup
pres
sion
of H
GP
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Firs
t pha
se in
sulin
resp
onse
(nm
ol/m
in/m
2 )
Can long duration type 2 diabetes also be reversed?
0 1 4 8
The Counterbalance Study –
Counteracting BetA cell failure by Long term
Action to Normalize Calorie intakE
Questions:Can people with longer duration type 2 diabetes reverse to normal?Is the reversal of type 2 diabetes durable if body weight remains stable?
Very low calorie diet
Protocol for CounterBalance study
T2DM < 4 yr
0 1 4 8 10 + 6 months
Weeks
T2DM > 8 yr
Stepped return to
normal eating
Weight maintenance
8 10
Counterbalance Subjects
Age (yr) 52.1 ± 2.6 61.6 ± 2.0
Weight (kg) 99.0 ± 3.7 96.9 ± 3.8
BMI (kg/m2) 34.6 (27.6-38.0) 33.0 (29.4-45.7)
FPG (mmol/l) 9.6 ± 0.7 13.4 ± 0.8
HbA1c (mmol/mol) 55 ± 2 70 ± 4
Fasting insulin 17.4 (3.9-48.9) 7.0 (4.1-31.9)
Diabetes duration 0-4y 8-23y(n=15) (n=14)
Steven et al Diabetic Med 2015
Results: weight loss during diet
Weight loss: 14.6 ± 0.8 % vs. 14.5 ± 0.7 %p=0.662
Fasting plasma glucose during diet
Steven et al Diabetic Med 2015
By diabetes duration
Spearman 0.501; p=0.006
<4 y 5.8 mM
8-12 y 6.2 mM
>12 y10.6 mM
Steven et al Diabetic Med 2015
Aetiology of type 2 diabetes: twin-cycle hypothesis
Positive calorie balance
↑ liver fat
↑ basal insulin secretion
Resistance to insulin suppression of HGP
↑ VLDL triglyceride
↑ plasma glucose
Liver cycle
Pancreas cycle ↑ islet triglyceride
Pre-existing insulin resistance++
↓ acute insulin response to food
Taylor. Diabetologia 2008; 51: 1781
BMI distribution of participants –Start of UK Prospective Diabetes Study
Taylor & Holman, Clin Sci 128: 405-410 2015
BMI distribution of individuals with type 2 diabetes
20 25 30 4035Taylor & Holman, Clin Sci 128: 405-410 2015
Personal vs population
20 353025 40BMI
A
C
B
Indi
vidu
als
Indi
vidu
als
Indi
vidu
als
The top panel shows the BMI distribution of individuals at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes.
However, a generation ago, the alter egos of those people would have been ~15 mg lighter and would not have had diabetes (blue dots).
OR –
If those people with T2DM lose 15kg, they lose their type 2 diabetes
Taylor & Holman, Clin Sci 128: 405-410 2015
Personal vs population
20 353025 40BMI
A
C
B
Indi
vidu
als
Indi
vidu
als
Indi
vidu
als
Take 3 individuals for example.Each lost 15kg and reversed their diabetes. But by BMI criteria they remain obese, overweight and normal respectively.
Each individual must have crossed a threshold of fat mass, personal to them.
Taylor & Holman, Clin Sci 128: 405-410 2015
Personal vs population
20 353025 40BMI
A
C
B
Indi
vidu
als
Indi
vidu
als
Indi
vidu
als
explains the “Why me” factor –indivduals have personal capacity to store fat safely. If the PFT is exceeded, T2DM slowly develops.
Taylor & Holman, Clin Sci 128: 405-410 2015
0
20
40
60
80
<10 10-20 20-30 >30
Perc
enta
gere
vers
ing
diab
etes
Amount of weight lost and effect on reversal of diabetes – 92 people after bariatric surgery
Steven, Carey, Small & Taylor; Diabetic Med 2014
Weight loss (%)
The Pancreas Study –
Question:Is the decrease in triglyceride content of the pancreas specifically related to type 2 diabetes and it reversal?Or is it merely a generalised effect of loss of fat from the body?
Design:Compare pancreas triglyceride in matched groups of people with and without type 2 diabetes undergoing identical weight loss
Baseline subject characteristics
Type 2 DMn=18
NGTN=9
Age (yr) 49.1 ± 1.6 46.3 ± 2.1
Weight (kg) 121.0 ± 3.0 114 ± 5.0
BMI (kg/m2) 42.7 ± 0.7 41.3 ± 1.0
DM duration (yr) 6.9 ± 0.5
HbA1c (%) 7.6±0.4
Insulin treated 3
SU treated 9Steven et al, Diabetes Care 39(1):158-65; 2016
T2DM NGT30
40
50
60Fa
t mas
s (k
g)
Fat mass in type 2 diabetic and normal glucose tolerance groups – before and after weight loss
Decrease body weight 13.6±0.7% 12.8 ± 0.8%
T2DM NGT0
5
10
15
Plas
ma
gluc
ose
(mm
ol/l)
Fasting plasma glucose in T2DM and NGT –Before and after weight loss
p<0.001
Steven et al, Diabetes Care 39(1):158-65; 2016
Hepatic insulin resistance in T2DM and NGT –before and after weight loss
p<0.002p<0.001
T2DM NGT0
1
2
3
4
Hepa
tic in
sulin
resi
stan
ce(m
mol
.min
-1.k
g ffm
-1 p
mol
.l-1)
Steven et al, Diabetes Care 39(1):158-65; 2016
Liver fat in T2DM and NGT –before and after weight loss
T2DM NGT0
5
10
15
Live
r fat
(%)
p<0.05p<0.02
Steven et al, Diabetes Care 39(1):158-65; 2016
-20 0 20 40 60 80
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Time (min)
ISR
(nm
ol/m
in/m
2 )
-20 0 20 40 60 80
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Time (min)
ISR
(nm
ol/m
in/m
2 )
NGT
-20 0 20 40 60 80
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Time (min)
ISR
(nm
ol/m
in/m
2 )
-20 0 20 40 60 80
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Time (min)
ISR
(nm
ol/m
in/m
2 )
T2DM
Insulin secretion before and after weight loss
Baseline
8 weeks
T2DM NGT
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5Fi
rst p
hase
insu
lin r
espo
nse
(nm
ol m
in-1
m-2
)
First phase insulin secretion in T2DM and NGT –before and after weight loss
p<0.005
p<0.02
Steven et al, Diabetes Care 39(1):158-65; 2016
T2DM NGT4
5
6
7
8Pa
ncre
atic
tria
cylg
lyce
rol (
%)
Pancreatic triglyceride in T2DM and NGT –before weight lossand after weight loss
p<0.01p<0.005
Panc
reat
ic tr
igly
cerid
e (%
)
Steven et al, Diabetes Care 39(1):158-65; 2016
T2DM NGT4
5
6
7
8Pa
ncre
atic
tria
cylg
lyce
rol (
%)
Pancreatic triglyceride in T2DM and NGT –before weight lossand after weight loss
p<0.005
Decrease of 1.2%Mean pancreas volume ~50ml
This represents ~0.6 grams of fatPa
ncre
atic
trig
lyce
ride
(%)
Steven et al, Diabetes Care 39(1):158-65; 2016
Conclusions
Weight loss over 8 weeks brings about loss of pancreatic triglyceride specifically in type 2 diabetes
It is likely that type 2 diabetes is caused by less than 1 gram of fat in the pancreas
30 Practices
DiRECT – a study in routine NHS General Practice
0 12 months 24 months
INTERVENTION2 weekly visits to 20 weeks then 4 weekly
CONTROLVisits at 0, 12 and 24 weeks
280 people
140 people
140 people
30 Practices
DiRECT – a study in routine NHS General Practice
0 12 months 24 months
INTERVENTION2 weekly visits to 20 weeks then 4 weekly
CONTROLVisits at 0, 12 and 24 weeks
280 people
140 people
140 people
What proportion of people with type 2 diabetes can be returned to ongoing normal health?
What psychological factors lead to success?
What metabolic changes ensure continuing normal metabolism?