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Offshore WindA big opportunity?
GA-EMA Conferences
22 October 2014
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CONTENTS
2
1. Global context of Renewables
2. Offshore Wind• Markets• Concepts and key figures• Risks
3. Conclusions
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CONTENTS
3
1. Global context of Renewables
2. Offshore Wind• Markets• Concepts and key figures• Risks
3. Conclusions
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Global Power Capacity OutlookContinuous growth expected…
Source: IHS
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Global Energy Production OutlookIncreasing weight of renewables…
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CONTENTS
6
1. Global context of renewables
2. Offshore Wind• Markets• Concepts and key figures• Risks
3. Conclusions
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Offshore Wind MarketsGlobal installed capacity status
Status in 2014: 0 GWTarget for 2020: 3 GW
Status in 2014: 7.3 GWTarget for 2020: 38-49 GW
Status in 2014: 0.5 GWTarget for 2020: 30 GW
Status in 2014: 0 GWTarget for 2020: 2.5 GW
Europe leads offshore wind development, with more than 90% of projects pipeline. By 2030, Europe will account for more than 70% of total installed capacity,
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Offshore Wind MarketsUK and Germany leading the path in Europe
Total
Operational 7.3 GW
Under construction
4.9 GW
2020 Target38 – 49 GW
0.6
0.6
1.8-2.0
3.7
1.9
8.5 - 13
0.3
0.2
4.5-6.0
0.2
0.1
3.0
0.6
1.5
6 - 8
1.3
0.4
2.3-2.5
0
0
6.0
0
0
6.0
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History of offshore windMore than 20 years of growth
Technology viability System knowledge Developing concepts Developing relationships
1991-2009Pioneering Phase
2009-2017Industrialising
offshore
2017- Large scale GW offshore power plants
Stimulating competition Applying lessons R&D & demonstration Scale
o sourcingo knowledge base
Cost efficiencyo technology developmento installation and O&M conceptso value chain engineering
Component reliability
Apply R&D & demonstration o New conceptso New materialso New technology
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Offshore Wind sitesChallenging locations
Offshore wind projects are installed further from shore and in deeper waters
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Offshore windMain components of a project
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Offshore windSize and Logistics
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Offshore WindDevelopment Cycle typical timeline
Opportunity Assessment
Concept Phase Refinement Phase Execution Phase Operations
Phase
Gate 1 Gate 2 Gate 3 Gate 4
•Id
entif
y sit
e
•Eva
luat
e po
tent
ial
•Sec
ure
deve
lopm
ent r
ight
s
•Con
cept
sel
ectio
n
•Site
cha
ract
erisa
tion
surv
eys
•Sec
ure
“bui
ldab
le” c
onse
nt•
Confir
m p
roje
ct e
cono
mics
•Det
aile
d sit
e su
rvey
s
•Fr
ont E
nd E
ngin
eerin
g Des
ign
•Est
ablis
h ex
ecut
able
con
tract
s
•Sec
ure
finan
ce
•Disc
harg
e co
nsen
t con
ditio
ns
•Con
stru
ct w
ind
farm
•Est
ablis
h O
&M b
ase
Project Progress
(2 - 3 years) (1 - 2 years) (2 - 4 years) (25 – 50 years)
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Offshore Wind EconomicsKey figures
DEVEX
EIA
Geophysical
Geotechnical
Wind Assesment
…
CAPEX
Supply of elements
Installation
Comissioning
…
OPEX
Operation
Maintenance
Repairment
Transmision
…
70-140 k€/MW 3-4 m€/MW 40-80 €/MWh
LCOE 160 €/MWh (*)
(*) Weighted-average levelised cost of energy value of projects financed in 2013
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Offshore windKey Risks
• Ornithology
• Marine Mammals
• Commercial Fishing
Permitting
• Regulatory changes
• Cost Reduction
• Capital Requirements
Commercial
• Grid Connection
• Supply Chain Constrains
• Asset Performance
Execution
15
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InnovationFrom all aspects of offshore wind
Innovation
Turbines
Foundations
Cables
Logistics
Installation
Operation
&
Maintenance
Procurement strategy
Financing
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InnovationFloating substructures
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Repsol Offshore Wind PortfolioGlobal project info
Inch
Cap
e
Mo
ray
Fir
th
Bea
tric
e
Moray Firth
Beatrice
Scotland
Inch Cape
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Repsol Offshore Wind PortfolioMet Mast
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CONTENTS
20
1. Global context of renewables
2. Offshore Wind• Markets• Concepts and key figures• Risks
3. Conclusions
© 21
ConclusionsOffshore Wind
● Installed capacity is expected to grow during this decade, mainly in Europe, although not as much as estimated 3-4 years ago
● Interest in the offshore sector continues to grow, with investor commitments, policy support and technological innovations driving the industry forward
● Growing cost concerns, due to deeper waters and further from shore, need to be addressed for offshore to become cost-competitive
● More competition has to be achieved at the supply chain level in order to allow cost reduction and standardization
● Offshore wind presents significant risks at all stages of the project (Development, Construction and Operation) but can be mitigated through proper project management
