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Lausanne International Researchers’ Conference 2011
Constructing European Secularity
Darrell Jackson & Jim Memory
Lausanne International Researchers’ Conference 2011
Constructing European Secularity
Darrell Jackson & Jim Memory
Preliminary results from the 2008 European Values S urvey
Page � 2
Nova Research CentreNova Research Centre
�http://europeanmission.redcliffe.org
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�VISTA subscription from [email protected]
1. European Values Study1. European Values Study
• The European Values Study is a large-scale, cross-national
survey research program on basic human values. It provides
insights into ideas, beliefs, attitudes, and values.
• First study conducted in 1980 in 12 major European
countries
• Repeated in 1989, 1999 and 2008 providing a unique
longitudinal study of changes in European values over the last
30 years.
• Most recent wave in 2008 wave surveyed 47 countries and
regions in Europe.
• All the data is all in the public domain and can be consulted
at: www.europeanvaluesstudy.eu
1. European Values Study 1. European Values Study cont’d
The complete 2008 EVS comprises of 140 questions. Our research
has focussed on the responses to just five of these questions:
• Do you believe in God?
• How important is religion in your life?
• Are you religious, non-religious or atheist?
• How often do you attend religious services?
• How much confidence do you have in the church?
These allow us to calculate a 360o index of secularisation.
07.04.2011
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1. European Values Study 1. European Values Study cont’d
Rank Country NIS value
1 Czech R. 3.61
2 Germany 3.39
3 France 3.27
4 UK* 3.21
5 Belgium 3.16
6 Finland 3.16
7 Spain 3.05
8 Hungary 3.04
9 Netherlands 2.98
10 Denmark 2.93
11 Bulgaria 2.79
12 Albania 2.72
13 Russian Fed. 2.65
14 Croatia* 2.51
15 Ireland 2.30
16 Italy* 2.28
17 Portugal 2.26
18 Greece 2.13
19 Poland 2.03
20 Romania 1.84
Results from these five
questions from the 2008
EVS were then used as the
basis for what we have
called “The Nova Index of
Secularisation in Europe”
(NISE) which in effect
provides a “league table”
of secularity for the
countries surveyed.
NOVA Index of
Secularisation in Europe
(NISE)
1. Do you believe in God?
• 69.7% of all adults
• 61.7% of 20-29 year olds
• Clear trend to increased
belief in God with age
• Probability that someone will
believe in God increases by
approximately 3.7% for each
decade of life.
• Countries with highest belief
in God: Turkey 99%, Romania
95%, Poland 95% and Greece
91%.
• Note dip in belief in post-war
generation in certain countries
(see next).
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79
%
Belief in Godby country and age cohort
Weighted Mean
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79
%
Belief in Godby country and age cohort
Albania
Bulgaria
Finland
France
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Russia
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
Ukraine
Belief in God across at least
these twelve countries shows
intriguing generational
nuances, where the 50-59 year
old cohort is less likely to
believe in God than the 40-49
year old cohort .
1. Do you believe in God?
• Greatest difference between
young people is in Spain
(18%), Finland (16%) and
Belgium (13%).
• Bulgarian young people are
more believing than population
mean.
-20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0
SpainFinlandNorwaySwitzerlandBelgiumNetherlandsAustraPortugalFranceGreat BritainDenmarkIrelandCzech R.SwedenRomaniaHungaryGermanyGreeceAlbaniaItalyPolandRussiaUkraineTurkeyBulgariaMean varianceW. mean variance
%
How different is the level of belief in God amongst young people (20-29) relative to the
country average?
07.04.2011
3
2. How important is religion in
your life?
• 50.1% of all adults said it was
“very or quite important” as did
41% of 20-29 yr olds.
• Once again clear trend to
consider religion of increasing
importance with age.
• Apparent “bounce” in
importance of religion among
young people in
Bulgaria, Turkey, Ukraine, France,
Germany and the Czech Republic.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79
%
Respondents who consider that religion is "very or quite important"
by country and age cohort
Czech R.
Finland
Turkey
Euro25 mean
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Bel
ow a
vera
ge
Abo
ve a
vera
ge
Relative importance of religionby country and age cohort
(relative to Euro25 mean for all respondents)
All ages
20-29
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Bel
ow a
vera
ge
Abo
ve a
vera
ge
Relative importance of religionamongst young people by country
(relative to Euro25 mean for 20-29 year olds) 3. Are you religious, non-
religious or atheist?
• 62% of all adults described
themselves as “religious”.
• 50.5% of 20-29 yr olds did so.
• Generally the older a person
is the more likely they are to
declare themselves to be
religious.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79
%
Respondents who describe themselves as "religious"by country and age cohort
Albania
Czech R.
Sweden
Turkey
Euro25 mean
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4
3. Are you religious, non-
religious or atheist? Cont’d
• 6.2% of whole dataset
described themselves as
atheist.
• 9% of 20-29 yr olds did so.
• Generally the older a person
is the less likely they are to
declare themselves to be
atheist.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79
%
Respondents who describe themselves as "atheist"by country and age cohort
France
Germany
Romania
Turkey
Euro25 mean
4. How often do you attend
religious services?
• 16.3% of all respondents
attend at least once a week
• 10% of 20-29 yr olds do so.
• Ranking of weekly
attendance by country puts
Poland, Ireland, Turkey.
Italy, and Portugal at the top.
• Finns, Danes & Swedes are
the least habitual
churchgoers.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79
%
Attendance at a religious service at least once a week by country and age cohort
Denmark
Ireland
Italy
Poland
Euro25 mean
4. How often do you attend
religious services? cont’d
• Irish (-24%) and Polish (-16%)
young people attend religious
services much less frequently
than previous generations.
• Dutch, Swedish and
Norwegian young people are
actually slightly more likely than
average to attend religious
services regularly.
-25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0
Netherlands
Sweden
Norway
Albania
Finland
Denmark
Bulgaria
Great Britain
Switzerland
Russia
France
Hungary
Czech R.
Turkey
Ukraine
Germany
Belgium
Italy
Spain
Austria
Portugal
Romania
Greece
Poland
Ireland
%
Ranking of countries for attendance at a religious serviceat least once a week
by difference between 20-29 cohort and mean
5. How much confidence do
you have in the church?
• Overall older respondents
tend to have more
confidence in the church
than younger respondents.
• 31% of 70-79 yr olds have
“a great deal of confidence”
in the church.
• Only 14% of 20-29 yr olds
say this.
Percentage "a great deal" of confidence by country and age
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 Mean
Albania 19.8 18.7 18.6 21.1 29.0 42.3 21.0
Belgium 3.6 4.5 6.1 4.5 9.3 17.7 6.7
Bulgaria 12.2 8.2 12.6 12.4 14.0 17.5 12.8
Czech R. 4.9 3.5 6.0 7.6 11.8 20.0 8.5
Denmark 6.5 9.6 8.4 8.6 10.3 12.6 9.2
Finland 4.6 6.7 10.6 7.8 12.7 8.3 8.6
France 7.7 3.8 3.3 5.7 8.0 13.5 6.5
Germany 6.4 7.7 4.9 5.4 8.6 12.6 7.1
Greece 10.2 13.1 15.8 18.7 33.5 49.0 22.5
Hungary 8.2 7.8 7.7 10.7 22.8 28.0 11.9
Ireland 11.9 9.6 16.7 16.1 33.3 45.5 18.9
Netherlands 10.6 6.8 6.7 5.8 7.5 16.6 8.4
Poland 10.9 17.3 21.1 27.3 34.0 50.0 23.4
Portugal 23.4 16.9 21.6 31.9 41.6 48.8 31.2
Romania 48.4 51.6 51.8 57.9 61.4 66.9 55.6
Russia 27.4 22.1 32.1 27.7 38.9 49.7 31.1
Spain 4.4 6.7 10.1 9.7 17.4 36.7 12.6
Totals 13.6 12.2 14.6 16.5 21.4 31.4 17.3
07.04.2011
5
5. How much confidence do
you have in the church?
• Poland, Greece and Spain
have much lower levels of
confidence among their
young people than the
general population.
• French and Dutch 20-29s
have more confidence in
the church than the average
for their country.
-15.0 -13.0 -11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0
Netherlands
France
Switzerland
Germany
Bulgaria
Ukraine
Albania
Sweden
Austria
Denmark
Norway
Belgium
Czech R.
Great Britain
Hungary
Finland
Turkey
Russia
Romania
Ireland
Portugal
Spain
Italy
Greece
Poland
%
How different are young people in respect to their confidence in the church to older generations
by country?5. How much confidence do
you have in the church?
• The trend line indicates a
small “bounce” in
confidence in the church
relative to previous
generations.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79
%
Respondents who have "a great deal of confidence" i n the church
by country and age cohort
France
Netherlands
Romania
Sweden
Euro25 mean
3. Data summary and emerging themes3. Data summary and emerging themes
European young people are more secularized than earlier
generations. However:
• In only three countries, France, Germany and the Czech Republic
does belief in God fall below 40% among 20-29 year olds.
• 50% of all Europeans and 41% of 20-29 year olds continue to
believe that religion is “quite or very important” in their lives
•Albania – the exceptional case?
•The 50-59 years old cohort is a ‘lost generation’.
•Successive generations, especially the 40-49 years old cohort
represents a more ‘open generation’.
4. Implications for 4. Implications for missionalmissional engagementengagement
a. Expose the public policy myths
• ‘Immigrants are as non-religious as indigenous Europeans!’
• ‘Contemporary Europe is profoundly irreligious and
secularised!’
• ‘Public displays of Christian symbolism at Christmas and other
festival periods offend Muslims and other religious adherents!’
• ‘If only we could get the religious communities talking together
we could all learn to get along in our secular societies!’
07.04.2011
6
4. Implications for 4. Implications for missionalmissional engagement engagement contd
b. Identify the generational windows
c. Capitalise on the open windows
d. Recognise the shift from ideological hostility to benign
indifference
“The various modes of worship, which prevailed in the Roman
world, were all considered by the people as equally true; by the
philosopher, as equally false; and by the magistrate, as equally
useful.”
(Edward Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire,
Vol. 1, Ch. 2, 1.)
www.novaresearch.eu
Dr Darrell [email protected]
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