It is a model consisting of four stages that helps to explain the rising and falling of natural increase over time in a country.

Historically, no country has ever reverted back to a previous stage. Thus, the model can be thought to have a

beginning, middle, and an end.Based on the experience of Western

Europe’s Industrial Age.Began by Warren Thompson in 1929.Further developed in 1945 by Frank

Notestein

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Time

Naturalincrease

Birth rate

Death rate

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Death Rate is high because of: High levels of disease

Famine Lack of clean water and

sanitation Lack of health care War Competition for food from

predators such as rats Lack of education

Birth Rate is high as a result of: Lack of family planning

High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank'

Need for workers in agriculture

Religious beliefs Children as economic

assets

Typical of Britain in the 18th century. No country presently is in Stage 1

Birth Rate and Death Rate are both high. Population growth is slow and fluctuating.

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Time

Naturalincrease

Birth rate

Death rate

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Birth Rate remains high. Death Rate is rapidly declining. Population begins to rise steadily.

Reasons Death Rate is falling as a result of:

Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine) Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled) Improved sanitation Improved food production and storage Improved transport for food Decreased Infant Mortality Rates

Europe and North America entered stage 2, as a result of the industrial revolution (~1750).

Africa, Asia, and Latin America entered stage 2 around 1950, as a result of medical revolution-improved medical care.

Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Time

Naturalincrease

Birth rate

Death rate

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Marked by rapid decline in birth rates and steady decline in death rates. Natural increase is moderate.

Reasons: Family planning available Lower Infant Mortality Rate Increased mechanization reduces need for workers Increased standard of living Changing status of women Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century;

China; Brazil. Most European countries and North America

transitioned to stage 3, during first half of twentieth century.

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Time

Naturalincrease

Birth rate

Death rate

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Birth Rate and Death Rate both low. Population steady. Economy is settled Fully developed Middle Class Political stability

Country reaches stage 4 when population gains by CBR are diminished by losses because of CDR.

▪ Condition known as zero population growth (ZPG)▪ Demographers more precisely define ZPG as the TFR that produces no

population change.

Population change results from immigration.

Typical of USA; Sweden; Japan; Britain

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Time

Naturalincrease

Birth rate

Death rate

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

The first break-the sudden drop in the death rate that comes from technological innovation

The second break-sudden drop in the birth rate that comes from changing social customs

http://www.ag.unr.edu/Gustin/ERS210/210PopulationNotes.pdf

What population patterns are revealed in the traditional Demographic Transition model?

Assignment: Construct a graph of birth and death

rates in England from 1750-2000.

Sources: B.R. Mitchell, European Historical Statistics 1750-1970 (1976): table B6; Council of Europe, Recent Demographic Developments in Europe 2001 (2001): tables T3.1 and T4.1; CELADE, Boletin demografico 69 (2002): tables 4 and 7; Francisco Alba-Hernandez, La poblacion de Mexico (1976): 14; and UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (2003): 326.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

SwedenBirth Rate

Death Rate

MexicoBirth Rate

Death Rate

Births/Deaths per 1,000

1750

Fig. 2-13: The demographic transition consists of four stages, which move from high birth and death rates, to declines first in death rates then in birth rates, and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates. Population growth is most rapid in the second stage.

Population Futures Demographic Transition Possible Stage 5:

Decline▪ Characterized by…

▪ Very low CBR▪ Increasing CDR

More elderly people than young persons▪ Negative NIR▪ Over time, few young women in child-bearing years

Contributing to ever falling CBR

▪ Several European countries already have negative NIR.▪ Russia is most notable hosting a negative NIR for 50 years.

http://www.geographyalltheway.com/ib_geography/ib_population/ib_demographic_transition_model.htm

Declining Birth Rates Two Successful Strategies for Lowering Birth

Rates1. Improving Education and Health Care▪ Emphasizes improving local economic conditions so that

increased wealth is allocated to education and health programs seeking to lower birth rates.

2. Contraception▪ More immediate results reaped than previous approach▪ Met with greater resistance, because it goes against cultural

or religious beliefs of some. Roman Catholics, fundamentalist Protestants, Muslims, and

Hindus.

How many countries are in each of the following stages of the demographic transition? Stage 1- None Stage 2 and 3- majority of countries Stage 4- ???

Fig. 2-17: Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history reflects the impacts of famines and out-migration.

Fig. 2-18: Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s.

Fig. 2-19: Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.

The model is overly generalized to the European experience.The model is too rigid. It assumes that all countries go

through all four phases of demographic transition.The model does not take into account other variables, such as

war, political turmoil, etc.Question: Can contemporary less developed countries hope

to achieve either the demographic transition or the economic progress enjoyed by more developed countries that passed through the transition at a different time and under different circumstances? Why or why not?

Question? Is the socioeconomic change experienced by industrialized countries a prerequisite or a consequence of demographic transition? Explain

Like all models, the demographic transition model has its limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, several factors and events: 1 Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below

death rates (Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the first time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps the model should have a fifth stage added to it.

2 The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely, however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will ever become industrialized.

3 The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of industrialization. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the unsanitary conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities. In many countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage 3 has been less rapid than the model suggests due to religious and/or political opposition to birth control (Brazil), whereas the fall was much more rapid, and came earlier, in China following the government-introduced ‘one child’ policy. The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian countries such as Hong Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster rate than did the early industrialized countries.

4 Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (USA, Canada, Australia) did not pass through the early stages of the model.

Malthus on Overpopulation He claimed the population was growing

faster than the increase in food supply. Malthus’s Critics

▪ Many geographers consider his beliefs too pessimistic.▪ Malthus’s theory based on idea that world’s supply of

resources is fixed rather than expanding.

▪ Many disagree that population increase is not a problem.▪ Larger populations could stimulate economic growth,

and therefore, production of more food.

Malthus on Overpopulation Theory and Reality

▪ Food production has increased over last 50 years faster than Malthus predicted.

▪ His model predicted world population to quadruple over the course of 50 years.▪ Not even in India has population growth outpaced

food production.

In 1798, he published the Essay on the Principle of Population Populations grow

exponentially: i.e. 1, 2, 4, 16, 32, etc.

Food supply grows arithmetically: i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, etc.

Consequence: eventually, the population will exceed the food supply capacity.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1 2 3 4

Population

Food

So, population would rise until it reaches its limits. Potential limits:Preventive checks -

postponement of marriage (lowering of fertility rate), increased cost of food, abortion, etc.

Positive checks - famine, war, disease, would increase the death rate.

Providing food and shelter to the poor -> population growth and increased poverty.

Population grows geometrically….

Population exceeds carrying capacity…

Population is kept in “check”– preventative and/or positive checks

Humans can actually increase their own food supply – productivity does not remain stagnant.

Besides for this theories about helping the poor, can you think of other critiques or do you think his basic premise is right?

Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

Thomas Malthus Neo-Malthusians Critics of MalthusPopulation is growing faster than Earth’s food supplyPopulation increased geometrically; food supply increased arithmetically

•Transfer of medical technology leads to a rapid increase in population in poor countries•World population is outstripping a wide variety of resources•Wars and civil violence will increase because of scarcity of food and other resources

•Large populations stimulate economic growth• Poverty, hunger, and other social welfare problems are a result of unjust social and economic institutions

Food production increased more rapidly than predicted

Population didn’t quadruplePopulation is increasing a slower rate

Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

What are the two ways to bring birth rates down? Lower birth rates Higher death rates

What two strategies have proven successful to lower birth rates? Reliance on economic development Distribution of contraceptives

Fig. 2-21: Crude birth rates declined in most countries during the 1980s and 1990s (though the absolute number of births per year increased from about 120 to 130 million).

Fig. 2-22: Both the extent of family planning use and the methods used vary widely by country and culture.

Epidemiologic Transition Medical researches have identified an

epidemiologic transition that focuses on distinct health threats in each stage of the demographic transition.

Stage 1: Pestilence and Famine (High CDR)▪ Principal cause of death: infectious and

parasitic diseases▪ Ex. black plague (bubonic plague)

The first transition was from hunting-gathering to primary food production. During this transition, infectious and parasitic diseases became prevalent. The shift to agriculture provides a more sedentary way-of-life and this creates more opportunities for contact with infected animals and human waste (i.e. vectors and vehicles of transmission).

Epidemiologic Transition Stage 2: Receding Pandemic (Rapidly

Declining CDR)▪ Pandemic is a disease that occurs over a wide

geographic area and affects a very high proportion of the population.

▪ Factors that reduced spread of disease, during the industrial revolution▪ Improved sanitation▪ Improved nutrition▪ Improved medicine

▪ Famous cholera pandemic in London in mid nineteenth century.

The second epidemiological transition occurred in modern times with infectious diseases under control and chronic, noninfectious, degenerative diseases rising. This second epidemiological transition is typically in the wealthy or developed nations. Developing nations still suffer from infectious diseases more than chronic diseases.

Fig. 2-23: By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water pumps in Soho, London, Dr. John Snow identified the source of the water-borne epidemic.

Epidemiologic Transition Stage 3: Degenerative Diseases (Moderately

Declining CDR)▪ Characterized by…

▪ Decrease in deaths from infectious diseases.▪ Increase in chronic disorders associated with aging.

Cardiovascular diseases Cancer

Stage 4: Delayed Degenerative Diseases (Low but Increasing CDR)▪ Characterized by…

▪ Deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases and cancer delayed because of modern medicine treatments.

The stage of generative and human-created diseases, characterized by a decrease in deaths from infectious diseases and an increase in chronic disorders associated with aging. Two important chronic disorders are cardiovascular diseases and various forms of cancer

The stage of delayed degenerative diseases. The major degenerative causes of death-cardiovascular diseases and cancers. Life expectancy of older people is extended through medical advances

Infectious Diseases Reasons for Possible Stage 5

▪ Evolution▪ Infectious disease microbes evolve and establish a resistance to drugs

and insecticides.▪ Antibiotics and genetic engineering contributes to the emergence of

new strains of viruses and bacteria.

▪ Poverty▪ Infectious diseases are more prevalent in poor areas because of

presence of unsanitary conditions and inability to afford drugs needed for treatment.

▪ Increased Connections▪ Advancements in modes of transportation, especially air travel, makes

it easier for an individual infected in one country to be in another country before exhibiting symptoms.

The stage of reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases. Infectious diseases thought to have been eradicated or controlled have returned, and new ones have emerged.

Fig. 2-26: The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and China have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present.

Fig. 2-24: The tuberculosis death rate is good indicator of a country’s ability to invest in health care. TB is still one of the world’s largest infectious disease killers.

This transition occurs as a country undergoes the process of modernization or economic development. Less economically developed countries have higher rates of infectious diseases as standards of medical care are lower than that found in more economically developed countries.

In more economically developed countries, more people die from degenerative diseases as infectious diseases such as cholera and typhoid are easily treated, causing more people to die from cancers as they live longer.

Health Care Health conditions vary around the world,

primarily, because countries possess different resources to care for people who are sick.▪ Expenditures on Health Care

▪ More than 15 percent of total government expenditures in Europe and North America.

▪ Less than 5 percent in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

Health Care Health Care Systems

▪ Developed Countries ▪ Public service available at little or no cost.▪ Government pays more than 70 percent of health-care

costs in most European countries, and private individuals pay about 30 percent of the expense.

▪ Developing Countries▪ Private individuals must pay more than half of the cost

of health care. U.S. is an exception to these generalizations, because private

individuals are required to pay about 55 percent of health care costs making it more closely resemble a developing country, in regards to health care.