Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS)The WWRP Polar Prediction Project (PPP)The WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI)Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)MOSAiC

Thanks to Thomas Jung, Chair of the WWRP Polar Prediction Project

WMO

GIPPS Global Integrated Polar Prediction System

• Global: International effort and poles have global influences

• Integrated: Interconnection between systems and system will be integrated (research, observations and services)

• Polar prediction will be central Three time scales

• Short-term prediction (hours to seasonal, PPP)

• Medium-term predictability (seasonal to decadal, PCPI)

• Long-term projection of ice mass balance and sea level (centuries, SLR, cryo…)

The WWRP Polar Prediction Project(2013-2022)

3

Mission: „Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hourly to seasonal.“

Research areas

Source: PPP Implementation Plan

Science Goals:

1) Improve the understanding of the requirements for, and evaluate the benefits of, enhanced prediction information and services in polar regions2) Establish and apply verification methods appropriate for polar regions3) Provide guidance on optimizing polar observing systems, and coordinate additional observations to support modelling and verification4) Improve representation of key processes in models of the polar atmosphere, land, ocean and cryosphere5) Develop data assimilation systems that account for the unique characteristics of polar regions6) Develop and exploit ensemble prediction systems with appropriate representation of initial condition and model uncertainty for polar regions7) Determine predictability and identify key sources of forecast errors in polar regions8) Improve knowledge of two-way linkages between polar and lower latitudes, and their implications for global prediction

Flagship PPP themes

Sea ice prediction• Explore predictability

• Develop coupled prediction systems Linkages between polar regions and lower-latitudes

• Determine mechanisms and strengths

• Implications for predictions in middle latitudes• International workshop on polar-lower latitude linkages and their role in weather and climate prediction (Barcelona, 10-12 December 2014, PPP is one of sponsors)

Improved availability of observations from polar regions The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)

WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI, 2010 - …)

WMO

GIPPS

(Global

Integrated

Polar

Prediction

System)

research on ice sheets and sea level

WWRP Polar Prediction Project (PPP)

Regional Grand

Challenge

PCPI Initiatives Cryosphere Grand

Challenge Leads: Cecilia Bitz & Ted Shepherd

Understand past polar

climate variations,

(palaeo, up to 100 years)

Assess reanalyses in polar regions

Understand polar climate predictability on seasonal to decadal timescales

Assess perfor-mance

of CMIP5 models in

polar regions

Model error

Understand how jets and non-

zonal circulation

couple to the rest of the

climate system in the Southern

Hemisphere

Day

s ->

Mo

nth

s ->

Yea

rs -

> D

ecad

es -

> C

entu

ries

The Year of Polar Prediction

Comprehensive observational snapshot• In situ and satellite data• Observing system design (data denial experiments)• Supersites (model grid boxes MOSAiC)

Model development (e.g. Transpose-CMIP) Community data sets (reforecasts, special archiving

etc.) Frontier experiments (e.g. high-resolution modelling) Draft YOPP Implementation Plan

The Year of Polar Prediction

Preparation Phase2013 to mid-2017

Consolidation Phase

mid-2019 to 2022Community engagement

Liaising with funders

Alignment with otherplanned activities

Preparatory research

Summer schoolWorkshops

Development of implementation plan

Intensive observing periods

Dedicated model experiments

Research into use & value of forecasts

Intensive verification effort

Model developments

Dedicated reanalyses

Operational implementation

YOPP publications

Data denial experiments

Preparation Phase 2013 to mid-2017

YOPP mid- 2017 to mid-

2019

Consolidation Phase mid-

2019 to 2022

YOPP conference

Summer school

MOSAiCMultidisciplinary drifting Observatory

for the Study of Arctic Climate

Multi-year, coordinated, and comprehensive measurements, extending from the atmosphere through the sea-ice and into the ocean, in the central Arctic Basin to provide a process-level understanding of the changing central Arctic climate system that will contribute towards improved modeling of Arctic climate and weather, and prediction of Arctic sea-ice concentrations.

Previous experiences within the Arctic ice pack:

Russian drifting stationsSHEBAShorter-term campaignsMany disciplinary obs.Some inter-disciplinary obs.

Each of these has key limitations:Length of timeComprehensiveness Spatial contextNot in the “new” Arctic

Russian drifting station

SHEBA

Building off the past

What: 1)Heavily instrumented, manned, ship-based, Arctic Ocean observatory for comprehensive, coordinated observations of the Arctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and ocean. 2)Network of spatial measurements to provide context and variability (buoys, gliders, UAVs, aircraft, ships, satellites, ice stations).3)Coordinated modeling activities at many scales from process-study to regional climate models.

MOSAiC

Who: •Coordinated through IASC •International participation (e.g. US, Germany, Sweden, France, Russia, Finland, Norway, Canada, Korea, Japan, China,….)•International infrastructure•Synchronized international funding

Transpolar Drift track

Objectives:•Observe full sea-ice “life cycle,” starting in new ice•Trajectory that will last for at least 1 year•Observe an understudied region

Measurements

Micro-meteorology

gases, aerosols, clouds & precip.

atmospheric profiling, BL, & dynamics

leads & ocean surface

ocean state, profiling, & dynamics

aircraft + UASs

ocean and ice bio/chem

buoys, AUVs, gliders

ice profiling, thermodynamics, mass budgets

surface energy budget

Conclusions:

2017-2019: unique opportunity to study climate predictability and improve polar predictions through a combination of PPP, PCPI, YOPP, and MOSAiC. Situation similar to pre-TOGA for research on ENSO.

Need engagement of all potential contributors.

Need for a satellite snapshot for all key polar variables

Need oceanographic data exchange to enable coupled Arctic data assimilation.