NCEP Polar Prediction Activities and Science Challenges

Dr. David Novak Mr. Joseph SienkiewiczScience and Operations Officer Chief, Ocean Applications BranchHydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

WWRP THORPEX Polar Workshop

Oslo, Norway

October 6, 2010

Outline

• Operational forecast services– North Atlantic and Pacific– Alaska– Arctic

• Science Challenges– Observations and Verification– Ocean – Atmosphere Interaction– Predictability– Climate – Weather Interface

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3

North Atlantic and Pacific Forecast Services

Ocean Prediction Center

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/

-High Seas -Warnings and Forecasts - Cyclone, wind and wave focus - Safety Of Life At Sea (SOLAS)- subtropics to low Arctic

- Coastal Guidance- Operational Oceanography

- portal -analyses / forecasts

Alaska Forecast ServicesNCEP/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Guidance

Land-based human forecast guidance for the Day 3-8 period.

Selective consensus/weighting of suite of international model guidance solutions

Surface Guidance

Forecast DiscussionsSensible Weather Element GuidanceSurface Analysis

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml

Alaska Forecast ServicesWeather Forecast Offices

6 km grid of Sensible WeatherWatch / Warning / Advisories

•Weather Forecast Offices responsible for watches, warnings, advisories and the local forecast (text, graphical, and gridded)

•Human forecasters interpret observational network, NCEP guidance, and local models to make forecasts

• Supported USCG Hamilton on Arctic Mission Sep 2008• First USCG non-ice breaking/hardened hull in Arctic

• Anticipate growing presence and support in Arctic• Working with NWS Alaska Region• Ice services, analysis and prediction• Oceanographic analyses and forecasts• Meteorological services (observation / prediction)• NOAA Ecological services

Arctic Marine Weather Services

Operations require: “accurate real-time information to mariners on weather, ocean, and ice conditions”1

1Report to Congress, U.S. Coast Guard Polar Operations

NCEP/Ocean Prediction Center Guidance

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NWS Alaska Region and Ocean Prediction Center Arctic Web Pagehttp://arctic.arh.noaa.gov/

GEFS Ensemble Probability winds 25 kt or higher

Navy NCOM Ocean Surface CurrentNOAA OI SST with Ice Edge

- Marine focused human forecast guidance - Day 1-5- Oceanographic and probabilistic guidance to Day 3

Local Office

NCEP Service Centers and ModelsService Drives the Science

Climate/WeatherLinkage

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Lea

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Lea

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WarningsWarnings

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Benefits

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean ModelWave and Ice

Global Forecast System

North American Forecast

Rapid Update Cycle

Dispersion Models for DHS-GFDL -WRF

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Hurricane Models

Service Centers

Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP)

HPC

OPC

TPC

SPC

SWPC

CPC

AWC

• Observations and Verification– Hazards focused

• Ocean Atmosphere– Ocean and sea-ice modeling– Fluxes

• Predictability– Mesoscale modeling– Ensembles and ensemble applications– Targeted observations

• Climate – Weather Interface– Earth System Models

Science Challenges

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Observations and Verification

• Limited conventional surface / upper air

• Majority are remotely sensed• Harsh environment• Need hazard-focused obs

(blowing snow, high winds, ice character, orographic precipitation)

Global Rawinsondes Marine Obs -- 12 Hour Total

Aircraft Wind/Temp Reports

Polar Satellite Radiances (just 2 sat) Drift Winds from Geostationary Satellites

DMSP Imager – Sfc winds/PW

Improved Polar observations Improved prediction and applications

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Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global, FNMOC

Regional NAM

WRF NMM

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Updatefor Aviation

ClimateCFS

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

MOM3

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

OceansHYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

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Reg

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Reg

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Satellites + Radar99.9%

3.5B Obs/Day

Observations and the Model Production Suite

Ocean – AtmosphereNCEP Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS)

– (1/12 deg HYCOM)NOAA requires a global eddy-resolving ocean model

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Ocean – AtmosphereMulti-Grid WAVEWATCH III

• Domain expanded to 82.5 deg N in 2009 from 76 deg N• Extension requested by NWS Alaska Region

•diminished ice coverage• waves impacting Alaskan Coast causing erosion

•4 minute coastal grids for AK• Polar cap extension of NWW3 in a year or so

•Working with NRL on a curvilinear version

• 20 member global ensemble• 20 member Navy FNMOC

Wave to be added

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Ocean – AtmosphereExtratropical Storm Surge

Coastal erosion due to:- Reduced sea ice- Increased wave action-Melting permafrost

Pt. Barrow

- Developed by NWS Meteorological Development Lab (MDL)- GFS forcing- Hourly output to 96 hrs- No ice, tides

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Ocean – AtmosphereSea Ice Efforts

NCEP Daily Ice Analysishttp://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/Analyses.html

Microwave based AMSR-E/SSMI12.7 km resolution

Daily concentration productInput to models and forecasters

NCEP Ice Drift Modelhttp://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/Forecasts.html

Grumbine, R. W., Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison, Weather and Forecasting, 13, 886-890,

1998

Sea Ice for NCEP GFS3 layer thermodynamic model since May 2005

Sea ice concentration prescribedSea ice/snow thickness predicted

Planning for improvements beginning Dec 2010

Sea Ice for NCEP CFSModified GFDL Sea Ice Simulator

Dynamics - Hunke and Dukowicz (1997)Thermodynamics – Winton 2000

NAM• 6 hourly updating

forecasts out to 84 h• Expanded 12 km Domain

to include Polar Regions with additional 4 km nests

Rapid Refresh• Hourly updating

forecasts out to 18 h• Expanded 13 km

Domain to include Polar Regions

WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010

Original CONUS domain

Experimental 3 km HRRR

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PredictabilityMesoscale Modeling

SREF• 6 hourly updating 21

member ensemble forecasts out to 87 h

• Expanded 32 km Domain to include Polar Regions

model domain (dash)

output domain (solid)

High-impact weather is often a mesoscale phenomenon

4 km

PredictabilityShort Range Ensemble Forecast System

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– Concept - Multi-model moderate resolution (32 km) ensemble for short-range high-impact events

– Ensemble generation – 21 members (4 different models)

– 32 km

– Four times daily with forecasts out to 87 hours

– Products – Wide variety of traditional and specific applications (aviation, fire weather, winter weather, etc)

Prob Vis < ½ mile Prob Blizzard

PredictabilityNorth American Ensemble Forecast System

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– Concept - Combines MSC and NWS global ensembles to improve probabilistic forecasts

– Increased ensemble size– Multi-model, -perturbation, and -physics

– Ensemble generation – 42 members – 70 km for NWS model, 100 km for MSC model– Twice daily with forecasts out to 16 days

– Data exchange – 80 variables

– Basic products – Bias corrected ensemble, climate anomaly forecasts, probabilistic forecasts (10%, 90% and ensemble mean, medium, mode and spread)

– Derived products – Downscaled products (5 km), Week-2 temperature, web displays, etc

Raw NCEP

NAEFS + FNMOCStat. corr.

NAEFS

Combined NCEP – CMC (NAEFS) show further increase in skill (6.2d)

Addition of FNMOC to NAEFS leads to modest improvement (6.7d)

Raw NCEP ensemble has modest skill (3.4d)

Statistically corrected NCEP ensemble has improved skill (4.8d)

0.5 CRPS skill

Value-added by including FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS T2m: Against analysis (NCEP’s evaluation, 4 of 4)

PredictabilityValue-added by Multi-center Approach

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January 2011

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• Add FNMOC ensemble in January 2011

• Improve basic products – adopt new methods (such as Bayesian Methods

• Add new derived products

• Bias correct all model output variables on model native grid (~200, 2-3 yrs)

• Downscale elements

• Extend applications – Intra-seasonal, regional, wave, hydro (river) ensembles

• Possible Polar Enhancements

– Additional elements

– Polar-centric domains

PredictabilityNAEFS Plans

Example Polar GEM domain

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Predictability NAEFS & THORPEX

NAEFS prototype ensemble component of THORPEX Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)

THORpex Interactive GrandGlobal Ensemble (TIGGE)

North American EnsembleForecast System (NAEFS)

Articulatesoperational needs

TransfersNew methods

Day -4-6

RAWIN

Russia

Day -3-5

G-IV

Day -1-3

C-130

G-IV

CONUS

VR

Day -5-6

E-AMDAR

Alaska

VR

Winter T-PARC - take additional observations as the perturbation propagates downstream into Arctic and North America

Winter T-PARC 2009 – A THORPEX field campaign

Lead by NCEP

Multi-agency coordination

PredictabilityTargeted Observations

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PredictabilityTargeted Observation Verification

Variable# cases

improved#cases

degraded

Surface pressure

37 15

Temperature 35 17

Vector Wind 36 16

Humidity 28 24

OVERALL75% cases improved

0% cases neutral 25% cases degraded

Courtesy Yucheng Song (EMC)

Winter T-PARC (2009) NCEP WSR Program (2005-2008)

Variable# cases

improved#cases

degraded

Surface pressure

79 49

Temperature 87 40

Vector Wind 90 38

Humidity 78 51

OVERALL71% cases improved

1% cases neutral28% cases degraded

Consistent with studies (e.g., Langland 2005; Buizza et al. 2007; Cardinali et al. 2007; Irvine et al. 2010)

Land

Ocean

For All Applications

Atmosphere

Cryosphere

Climate – Weather InterfaceFully Coupled Earth System Model

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Chemistry Biology

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Analysis--------------

Ocean-------------

Wind Waves--------------

LSM----------------

Ens. Gen.--------------Ecosystem--------------

Etc

Physics(1,2,3)

ESMF Utilities(clock, error handling, etc)

Bias CorrectorPost processor & Product Generator

VerificationResolution change

1-11-21-32-12-22-3

ESMF Superstructure(component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc)

Multi-component ensemble+

Stochastic forcing

Coupler1Coupler2Coupler3Coupler4Coupler5Coupler6

Etc.

Dynamics(1,2)

Application Driver

NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)

* Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC), NOAA/GFDL

1, 2, 3 etc: NCEP supported thru NUOPC, NASA, NCAR or NOAA institutional commitments

Atmospheric Model

Chemistry

Attribute Operational Configuration Q1FY11 Configuration

Analysis Resolution 200 km 38 km

Atmosphere model 1995: 200 km/28 levels

Humidity based clouds

100 km/64 levels

Variable CO2

AER SW & LW radiation

Prognostic clouds & liquid water

Retuned mountain blocking

Convective gravity wave drag

Ocean model MOM-3: 60N-65S

1/3 x 1 deg.

Assim depth 750 m

MOM-4 fully global

¼ x ½ deg.

Assim depth 4737 m

Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation

2-level LSM

No separate land data assim

4 level Noah model

GLDAS driven by obs precip

Sea ice Climatology Daily analysis and Prognostic sea ice

Coupling Daily 30 minutes

Data assimilation Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background

Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background

Reforecasts 15/month seasonal output 25/month (seasonal)

124/month (week 3-6) 26

Climate Forecast System (CFS) Version 2January 2011

CFS v1 CFS v2C

orre

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Day

Day

Cor

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tion

Climate – Weather Interface Climate Forecast System Version 2

• Major upgrade in Jan 2011: – Higher resolution for all earth system components;

– Atmospheric assimilation @ T574L64, coupled to 40-level MOM4 ocean model, interactive 3 layer sea-ice model and 4 soil level land model

– Daily real time, fully coupled and fully calibrated T126L64 forecasts, will include 4 runs to 9-months, 3 runs to 1 season, and 9 runs to 45 days.

– Has skill in predicting ENSO on seasonal time scales and MJO in the week2-week4 range.

Courtesy: Qin Zhang, CPC

Summary

• Increasing service requirements for the poles

• Enhance observations necessary for improved polar prediction

• Understanding and predicting Ocean – Atmosphere interaction a necessity

• Development of high-resolution and ensemble models and service applications ongoing

• Working towards fully coupled Earth System Model 28

Pan-Am Global or tri-polar Grid (4500 x 3928)

Arctic bi-polar patch above 47 N, Mercator grid 78.6 S – 47 N

Coastline at 10 m isobath

Open Bering Strait

32 layers, first z-level 3m

17 minutes per model day forecast on 1001 sp5 cpu’s

Time step = 180 s (baroclinic)

NCODA for preparing initialization fields (at NAVO)

NCEP Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) – (1/12 deg HYCOM)

Access to NCEP Products/ServicesNOMADS

• NOMADS – NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System

– A digital archive and real time distribution of NOAA’s operational weather models

– geographically-diverse backup server to ensure operational availability

– Built on “pull” technology

– Operational February 2009

• Portal for Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (1979-2010)– Created with fully coupled CFSv2

– 1°x 1° grid spacing30