Floridaedr.state.fl.us/Content/presentations/economic/Fl...Economy Has Continued Growth... In the latest revised data for State Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Florida had real growth

The Florida LegislatureOffice of Economic and

Demographic Research850.487.1402http://edr.state.fl.us

Presented by:

Florida:An Economic Overview

December 26, 2018

Shifting in Key Economic Variables

New Construction

(none of the key metrics for residential construction are back

to normal until FY 2026-27)

Population Growth

Net Migration

Employment Growth

FL EconomyGross Domestic

Product & Personal Income Growth

Credit Market(+ or -)

Global & National Economic Conditions Financial Assets

Need for Services & Goods

Simplified FlowOf Major Drivers

Tourism

Res

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Very Strong

1

Economy Has Continued Growth...

In the latest revised data for State Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Florida had real growth of 4.0% in 2015, placing it above the national average of 2.9%. For the 2016 calendar year, Florida’s growth slowed to 3.2%; however, this was still well above the national average of 1.6%.

For 2017, Florida’s real growth further slowed to 2.2% over the prior year and matching the national average. This ranked Florida 16th among states for growth. The Estimating Conference expects that Florida’s Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will show growth of 3.5% in Fiscal Year 2018-19 and then begin a slow decline to the 2.0% range in the mid- and long-term portions of the forecast.

For the second quarter of the 2018 calendar year, Florida posted growth of 4.5percent, surpassing the national average of 4.2 percent and ranking the state 9thin the country for real growth.

2

FL Personal Income Growth Is Strong, Driven in Part by Robust Population Growth...

In the latest revised data for State Personal Income, Florida had growth of 7.1% in 2015, placing it well above the national average of 4.9%. For the 2016 calendar year, Florida’s growth slowed to 3.7%; however, this was still above the national average of 2.6%. For 2017, the latest revised numbers show that Florida’s growth increased to 5.0% over the prior year, compared to national growth of 4.4%. Over the long term, the annual growth rates for the state are expected to straddle 4.0%.

Florida’s per capita personal income growth trailed the nation in performance in 2017, growing only 3.3% compared to the national average of 3.6%.

The third quarter results for the 2018 calendar year indicated that Florida ranked 16th in the country with 4.3 percent growth over the prior quarter. The state was above the United States as a whole, which had 4.0 percent growth.

3

Florida’s average annual wage has typically been below the US average. The most recent data for the 2017 calendar year showed that Florida’s average wage, relative to the US average, fell slightly from 87.7% in 2016 to 87.5%. The ratio in 2014 (87.2%) was Florida’s lowest percentage since 2001.

In part, the lower than average wage gains has to do with the mix of jobs that have been growing the fastest in Florida and their average wages. For example, the Accommodation & Food Services employment sector is large, has the lowest average annual wage, and had up until this past year been growing faster than overall employment in the state. This industry sector is closely related to the health of Florida’s tourism industry that had a record 122.0 million visitors in FY 2017-18, an increase of 5.4% over FY 2016-17.

Wage Gap Increased Slightly in 2017…

4

Average Annual Wage by County…

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages; Place of Work

There are two possible reasons for lower than average wages in Florida, and they have different economic interpretations. As described previously, the first has to do with the mix of jobs that have been growing the fastest. The second has to do with the range and distribution of wages across a community: a narrow band typically has more to do with opportunity and poverty. Urban workers generally have a higher return to education through higher wages.

Palm Beach County $53,438

Franklin County $30,645

5

Current Employment Conditions Strong…

November Nonfarm Jobs (YOY)US 1.7%FL 2.8%YR: 241,600 jobsPeak: +821,700 jobs[Prior Employment Peak passed in May 2015]

November Unemployment RateUS 3.7%FL 3.3%(335,000 people)

The Revenue Estimating Conference assumes Florida has fallen below the “full employment” unemployment rate (about 4 percent).

Highest Monthly Rate11.3% (January 2010)

Lowest Monthly Rate3.1% (March 2006)

6

Florida’s labor force participation rate peaked during the Housing Boom at 64.1% from December 2006 to February 2007. While the unemployment rate is now similar to that time, the labor force participation rate is not. Florida’s November rate matched October at 59.1%, while the US rate was 62.9% in November 2018. A higher participation rate would imply a higher unemployment rate, at least in the short run.

But, Florida’s Participation Rate Low…

7

Across the State, Employment Picture Is Improving, but Polarized…

• Comparing March data over the year, it took Florida nine years to finally surpass its March 2007 level of employment.

• Almost two-thirds (42) of Florida’s counties have gained employment relative to their levels in March 2007. Last year, there were 37 counties.

Area March 2007 to March 2018

Sumter County

42.3% Greatest Percentage Increase

Florida 7.7%

Liberty County

-32.1% GreatestPercentage Decline

8

Population Growth Slowing Slightly... Population growth is the state’s primary engine of economic growth, fueling

both employment and income growth.

Florida’s population grew by 1.74% between April 1, 2017 and April 1, 2018 to 20,840,568, adding 356,426 residents. This growth was bolstered by the in-migration of Puerto Ricans and US Virgin Islanders as a result of the 2017 hurricane season.

Over the next four years, Florida’s population growth is expected to remain at or above 1.4%, averaging 1.51% between 2018 and 2022. Most of Florida’s population growth through 2030 will be from net migration (98.0%).

Nationally, average annual growth will be about 0.67% between 2018 and 2030.

The future will be different than the past; Florida’s long-term growth rate between 1970 and 1995 was over 3%.

Florida is currently the third most populous state, behind California and Texas.

9

Florida’s Population Growth…

Population: Average annual increase between 2000 and 2006 was: 361,942 Average annual increase between 2006 and 2014 was: 169,112 Average annual increase between 2014 and 2018 was: 333,300

Population is forecast to increase on average annually by: 327,921 between 2018 and 2020 305,050 between 2020 and 2025 255,835 between 2025 and 2030 2018 PopulationOrlando 285,099

St. Petersburg 266,076

Florida’s population growth of 356,426 between April 1, 2017 and April 1, 2018 was the strongest annual increase since 2006, immediately prior to the collapse of the housing boom and the beginning of the Great Recession.

10

Baby Boomers in Florida Today...

The first cohort of Baby Boomers became eligible for retirement (turned age 65) in 2011. Eight cohorts have entered the retirement phase: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2106, 2017, and 2018. This represents almost 39 percent of all Baby Boomers.

In 2000, Florida’s prime working age population (ages 25-54) represented 41.5 percent of the total population. With the aging Baby Boom generation, this population now represents 37.4 percent of Florida’s total population and is expected to represent only 35.9 percent by 2030.

11

Population Growth by Age Group…

Between 2010 and 2030, Florida’s population is forecast to grow by almost 5.5 million persons.

Florida’s older population (age 60 and older) will account for most of Florida’s population growth, representing 53.8 percent of the gains.

Florida’s younger population (age 0-17) will account for 15.4 percent of the gains, while the younger working age group (25-39) will account for 18.6 percent of the growth.

12

Florida Housing is Generally Improving...

Documentary Stamp Tax collections saw 3.8% growth in FY 2017-18 over FY 2016-17.

4,058.3

2,510.0

0.0

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

3,500.0

4,000.0

4,500.0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Total Documentary Stamp Tax Collections (FY Beginning)

Afer declining four years in a row, FY 2010-11 was 28.5% of the 2005-06 peak year; FY 2011-12 was 31.1%; FY 2012-13 was 40.5%; FY 2013-14 was 44.7%; FY 2014-15 was 52.3%; FY 2015-16 was 56.1%; FY 2016-17 was 59.6%; and FY 2017-18 was 61.8%.

13

Chart2

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Afer declining four years in a row, FY 2010-11 was 28.5% of the 2005-06 peak year; FY 2011-12 was 31.1%; FY 2012-13 was 40.5%; FY 2013-14 was 44.7%; FY 2014-15 was 52.3%; FY 2015-16 was 56.1%; FY 2016-17 was 59.6%; and FY 2017-18 was 61.8%.


695.3

775.2

844.2

1045.4

1185.1

1223.5

1313.2

1572.5

2001.5

2632.1

3365.2

4058.3

3032.8

1954.9

1122.8

1078.6

1156.5

1261.6

1643.4

1812.5

2120.8

2276.9

2417.8

2510

Statewide

Statewide SalesMedian PricePermits (one-family)DOC Stamp Coll*% DOC Change

199410%1%5.5%774.9695.3-10.3%

19951%2%-12.7%775.211.5%* FY Beginning

19966%5%8.3%844.28.9%Permits = Dodge Data

19972%4%-0.8%1,045.423.8%

199812%6%8.4%1,185.113.4%

19997%7%8.9%1,223.53.2%

20006%7%-0.1%1,313.27.3%

20016%9%11.5%1,572.519.7%

200210%9%8.4%2,001.527.3%

200313%12%21.9%2,632.131.5%

200411%17%19.5%3,365.227.9%

20052%29%11.6%4,058.320.6%

2006-28%6%-30.1%3,032.8-25.3%

2007-29%-5%-52.1%1,954.9-35.5%

2008-4%-20%-44.7%1,122.8-42.6%

200931%-24%-31.2%1,078.6-3.9%

20105%-4%12.8%1,156.57.2%28.5%

20118%-3%6.1%1,261.69.1%31.1%

20129%9%32.3%1,643.430.3%40.5%

201311%16%31.3%1,812.510.3%44.7%

20147%6%1.6%2,120.817.0%52.3%

201511%10.1%20.3%2,276.97.4%56.1%

20161%12.2%11.1%2,417.86.2%59.6%

20172,510.03.8%61.8%

2005 Realtor Sales Volume - Existing Homes0

JanuaryJanuary%JanuaryJanuary%

20052004Chge20052004Chge

STATEWIDE15,56714,20410%204,900164,90024%

FebruaryFebruaryFebruaryFebruary

2005200420052004

STATEWIDE17,56216,5956%201,400160,80025%

MarchMarchMarchMarch

2005200420052004

STATEWIDE24,04522,7486%7.3%212,300165,70028%25.9%

AprilAprilAprilAprilYear Over Year Existing Home Sales: Same Month

200520042005200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

STATEWIDE23,53722,7463%218,600172,90026%January10%-19%-27%-28%24%24%14%-6%12%10%10%1%5%-1%

February6%-20%-23%-25%20%21%13%-5%10%2%19%0%-0%3%

MayMayMayMayMarch6%-22%-28%-26%30%24%12%-6%9%3%25%-1%9%-3%

2005200420052004April3%-31%-26%-9%18%27%2%-1%17%4%18%-1%-1%4%

STATEWIDE24,06922,4967%230,800181,90027%May7%-24%-34%-5%16%18%3%7%18%4%8%4%8%1%

June-3%-29%-30%-5%28%15%-4%5%9%15%20%0%4%

JuneJuneJuneJuneJuly-8%-33%-24%0%37%-14%12%10%21%5%22%-8%2%

2005200420052004August4%-34%-26%-4%28%1%15%11%12%5%9%8%1%

STATEWIDE25,45526,112-3%2.3%248,700189,20031%28.3%September33%-34%-38%24%34%-8%10%2%19%14%13%-0%-20%

October-5%-22%-29%15%45%-21%13%25%6%18%1%-5%2%

JulyJulyJulyJulyNovember1%-30%-30%4%61%-15%11%24%-1%11%2%13%1%

2005200420052004December-15%-28%-31%27%33%4%-2%16%9%16%3%1%3%

STATEWIDE21,66923,646-8%252,300190,30033%

2009 Sales as Share of 2005

AugustAugustAugustAugust15,567January Sales 2005

20052004200520040.60268516739,382January Sales 2007

STATEWIDE21,31820,4914%246,500188,70031%

17,562February Sales 2005

SeptemberSeptemberHURRICANESSeptemberSeptember0.613768363510,779February Sales 2007Sales as Share of 2005

2005200420052004200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

STATEWIDE20,36815,27233%9.8%247,800193,40028%30.4%24,045March Sales 2005Jan0.60268516730.43277445880.5428149290.67225541210.78056144410.77368792960.87467077791.01663775941.033401.02755829641.07791.0640

0.56015803713,469March Sales 2007Feb0.61376836350.47318073110.56132558930.6770299510.78015032460.81254982350.88776904680.90115021071.0648559391.03399385041.02681926891.060243708

OctoberOctoberOctoberOctoberMar0.5601580370.38020378460.54418798090.67764608030.77030567690.76398419630.81201913080.83514244131.03185693490.98806404661.07802037851.0405489707

200520042005200423,537April Sales 2005April0.51051535880.47584653950.55703785530.71296256960.73042443810.74537961510.87300845480.90856948631.07090963161.0257891831.01240599911.0538301398

STATEWIDE16,02916,844-5%241,000188,80028%0.510515358812,016April Sales 2007May0.52378578250.50583738420.57837882750.69570817230.71577547880.77788857040.92326228760.95612613741.02991399731.06020191951.15709003281.1662719681

June0.50889805540.45963464940.62266745240.70862306030.69129836970.738558240.80153211550.9106658811.0893341191.06407385581.1080337851

NovemberNovemberNovemberNovember24,069May Sales 2005July0.53874198160.53061977940.7329364530.62711707970.71609211320.80391342470.98010983431.01984401681.24214315381.11140338731.132770317

20052004200520040.523785782512,607May Sales 2007Aug0.52908340370.50881883850.64968571160.65658129280.76020264570.87573881230.98194014451.01988929541.10943803361.17600150111.1837414392

STATEWIDE17,21917,1101%250,500191,30031%Sept0.42655145330.53107816180.70792419480.66457187750.73821681070.76801846030.90779654361.02081696781.15740377061.11468970930.8852120974

25,455June Sales 2005Oct0.57177615570.65150664420.94578576330.7416557490.85813213551.10917711651.16838230711.36589930751.38168319921.25984153721.2816145736

DecemberDecemberDecemberDecember0.508898055412,954June Sales 2007Nov0.47075904520.49776409780.81456530580.6910970440.75457343630.99146291890.96521284631.03211568621.05128056221.14774377141.1609268831

2005200420052004Dec0.50431305340.63141959440.83576121110.88831762350.87346472441.03004855761.11379605831.28043416171.31710939731.27574978581.3083690374

STATEWIDE17,50520,592-15%-6.4%247,000194,00027%28.6%21,669July Sales 200553.0%50.7%67.4%70.1%76.4%84.9%94.1%102.2%113.2%110.7%111.8%107.7%

12-Month Rolling Average12-Month Rolling Average0.538741981611,674July Sales 2007

STATEWIDE248,565242,5972%235,100181,90029%

21,318August Sales 2005

0.529083403711,279August Sales 2007# Decline$ DeclinePriceDate

10%24%204,900Jan 05Price

2006 Realtor Sales Volume - Existing Homes2006 Median Price - Existing Homes20,368September Sales 20056%25%201,400Feb 05-1.7%

0.42655145338,688September Sales 20076%28%212,300March 055.4%

JanuaryJanuary%JanuaryJanuary%3%26%218,600April 053.0%

20062005Chge20062005Chge16,029October Sales 20057%27%230,800May 055.6%

STATEWIDE12,81515,745-19%248,600205,10021%0.57177615579,165October Sales 2007-3%31%248,700June 057.8%

-8%33%252,300July 051.4%

FebruaryFebruaryFebruaryFebruary17,219November Sales 20054%31%246,500Aug 05-2.3%

20062005200620050.47075904528,106November Sales 20070%28%247,800Sept 050.5%

STATEWIDE13,53916,916-20%244,200197,70024%-5%28%241,000Oct 05-2.7%

17,505December Sales 20051%31%250,500Nov 053.9%

MarchMarchMarchMarch0.50431305348,828December Sales 2007-15%27%247,000Dec 05-1.4%

2006200520062005-19%21%248,600Jan 060.6%

STATEWIDE18,88124,091-22%-20.1%248,200212,60017%20.5%15,567January Sales 2005-20%24%244,200Feb 06-1.8%

0.43277445886,737January Sales 2008-22%17%248,200March 061.6%

AprilAprilAprilApril-31%13%249,700April 060.6%

200620052006200517,562February Sales 2005-24%11%256,400May 062.7%

STATEWIDE16,39223,844-31%249,700221,10013%0.47318073118,310February Sales 2008-29%3%257,800June 060.5%

-33%1%250,800July 06-2.7%

MayMayMayMay24,045March Sales 2005-34%0%248,400Aug 06-1.0%

20062005200620050.38020378469,142March Sales 2008-34%-1%243,900Sept 06-1.8%

STATEWIDE18,68024,523-24%256,400232,00011%-22%0%242,500Oct 06-0.6%

23,537April Sales 2005-30%-3%242,500Nov 060.0%

JuneJuneJuneJune0.475846539511,200April Sales 2008-28%-2%241,100Dec 06-0.6%

2006200520062005-27%-2%239,300Jan 07-0.7%

STATEWIDE18,08925,552-29%-28.1%257,800249,8003%8.9%24,069May Sales 2005-23%-3%235,500Feb 07-1.6%

0.505837384212,175May Sales 2008-28%-4%236,000March 070.2%

JulyJulyJulyJuly-26%-3%237,800April 070.8%

200620052006200525,455June Sales 2005-34%-5%237,000May 07-0.3%

STATEWIDE14,45121,691-33%250,800248,2001%0.459634649411,700June Sales 2008-30%-5%243,200June 072.6%

-24%-5%237,500July 07-2.3%

AugustAugustAugustAugust21,669July Sales 2005-26%-6%231,900Aug 07-2.4%

20062005200620050.530619779411,498July Sales 2008-38%-9%221,200Sept 07-4.6%

STATEWIDE14,73622,421-34%248,400248,4000%-29%-8%222,100Oct 070.4%

21,318August Sales 2005-30%-10%215,800Nov 07-2.8%

SeptemberSeptemberSeptemberSeptember0.508818838510,847August Sales 2008-31%-13%208,900Dec 07-3.2%

2006200520062005-28%-14%208,600Jan 08-0.1%

STATEWIDE13,48520,451-34%-33.9%243,900246,100-1%0.1%20,368Sept Sales 2005-25%-16%198,900Feb 08-4.7%

0.531078161810,817Sept Sales 2008-26%-15%205,600March 083.4%

OctoberOctoberOctoberOctober-9%-17%198,900April 08-3.3%

200620052006200516,029October Sales 2005-5%-15%203,300May 082.2%

STATEWIDE12,77316,407-22%242,500243,400-0%0.651506644210,443October Sales 2008-5%-16%205,500June 081.1%

0%-19%193,600July 08-5.8%

NovemberNovemberNovemberNovember17,219November Sales 2005-4%-20%186,900Aug 08-3.5%

20062005200620050.49776409788,571November Sales 200824%-22%175,100Sept 08-6.3%

STATEWIDE11,91217,088-30%242,500250,400-3%15%-24%169,700Oct 08-3.1%

17,505December Sales 20054%-27%158,300Nov 08-6.7%

DecemberDecemberDecemberDecember0.631419594411,053December Sales 200827%-27%155,500Dec 08-1.8%

200620052006200524%-33%139,500Jan 09-10.3%

STATEWIDE12,41517,215-28%-26.8%241,100245,600-2%-1.8%15,567January Sales 200520%-29%141,900Feb 091.7%

12-Month Rolling Average12-Month Rolling Average0.5428149298,450January Sales 200930%-30%141,300March 09-0.4%

STATEWIDE180,037248,575-28%248,300235,2006%18%-31%138,500April 09-2.0%

17,562February Sales 200516%-29%144,400May 094.3%

0.56132558939,858February Sales 200928%-28%148,000June 092.5%

37%-24%147,600July 09-0.3%

2007 Realtor Sales Volume - Existing Homes2007 Median Price - Existing Homes24,045March Sales 200528%-22%147,400Aug 09-0.1%

0.544187980913,085March Sales 200934%-19%142,000Sept 09-3.7%

JanuaryJanuary%JanuaryJanuary%45%-17%140,300Oct 09-1.2%

20072006Chge20072006Chge23,537April Sales 200561%-12%139,000Nov 09-0.9%

STATEWIDE9,38212,906-27%239,300243,200-2%0.557037855313,111April Sales 200933%-10%140,400Dec 091.0%

24%-6%130,900Jan 10-6.8%

FebruaryFebruaryFebruaryFebruary24,069May Sales 200521%-7%131,300Feb 100.3%

20072006200720060.578378827513,921May Sales 200924%-3%137,000March 104.3%

STATEWIDE10,77914,080-23%235,500242,500-3%27%1%140,100April 102.3%

25,455June Sales 200518%-2%140,400May 100.2%

MarchMarchMarchMarch0.622667452415,850June Sales 200915%-3%143,400June 102.1%

2007200620072006-14%-7%138,000July 10-3.8%

STATEWIDE13,46918,751-28%-26.3%236,000244,600-4%-2.7%21,669July Sales 20051%-9%134,000Aug 10-2.9%

0.73293645315,882July Sales 2009-8%-6%133,400Sept 10-0.4%

AprilAprilAprilApril-21%-3%136,600Oct 102.4%

200720062007200621,318August Sales 2005-15%-5%132,700Nov 10-2.9%

STATEWIDE12,01616,238-26%237,800245,900-3%0.649685711613,850August Sales 20094%-5%133,100Dec 100.3%NAT'L vs FL Median

14%-7%122,200Jan 11-8.2%October '08

MayMayMayMay20,368Sept Sales 200513%-2%121,900Feb 11-0.2%National185,700

20072006200720060.707924194814,419Sept Sales 200912%-7%126,300March 113.6%Florida169,700

STATEWIDE12,60719,072-34%237,000250,100-5%2%-6%131,700April 114.3%Diff-8.6%

16,029Oct Sales 20053%-5%135,500May 112.9%

JuneJuneJuneJune0.945785763315,160Oct Sales 2009-4%-2%138,000June 111.8%NovDocumentary Stamp Tax Collections

200720062007200612%-1%136,500July 11-1.1%National179,900Monthly CollectionsDoc ChgSales AvgDoc ChgSales AvgDoc ChgSales AvgDoc ChgSales AvgDoc ChgSales AvgDoc ChgSales AvgDoc ChgSales AvgDoc ChgSales AvgDoc ChgSales AvgDoc ChgSales Avg

STATEWIDE12,95418,607-30%-30.1%243,200256,200-5%-4.5%17,219Nov Sales 200515%2%137,500Aug 110.7%Florida158,300-42.9%-4.0%-29.2%31.4%-9.3%5.0%8.4%8.0%21.1%8.5%26.8%5.3%15.1%5.4%

0.814565305814,026Nov Sales 200910%-1%133,900Sept 11-2.6%Diff-12.0%20082008200920092010201020112011201220122013201320142014201520152016201620162016

JulyJulyJulyJuly13%-4%131,200Oct 11-2.0%2005200620072008% Doc% Sales2009% Doc% Sales2010% Doc% Sales2011% Doc% Sales2012% Doc% Sales2013% Doc% Sales2014% Doc% Sales2015% Doc% Sales2016% Doc% Sales2017% Doc% Sales

200720062007200617,505Dec Sales 200511%-0%130,100Nov 11-0.8%DecJan267.7351.0279.4169.90.634670.4327779.30.296230.5428184.30.314900.67226105.00.392230.78056111.20.415390.77369166.60.622340.87467144.90.541281.01664148.00.552861.03340179.40.670151.02756203.90.761671.07786

STATEWIDE11,67415,378-24%237,500250,400-5%0.835761211114,630Dec Sales 2009-2%1%134,300Dec 113.2%National175,000Feb235.5287.5221.4118.20.501910.4731869.80.296390.5613373.50.312100.6770381.00.343950.7801587.20.370280.81255111.10.471760.88777121.30.515070.90115138.40.587691.06486167.90.712951.03399172.80.733761.02682

-6%5%129,000Jan 12-3.9%Florida155,500Mar318.7304.3229.3131.00.411040.3802087.10.273300.5441996.00.301220.6776599.60.312520.7703199.10.310950.76398127.00.398490.81202127.10.398810.83514186.30.584561.03186176.90.555070.98806190.40.597431.07802

AugustAugustAugustAugust15,567Jan Sales 2005-5%7%134,000Feb 123.9%Diff-11.1%Apr313.8302.9230.0148.30.472590.4758582.10.261630.5570490.20.287440.7129699.80.318040.73042120.70.384640.74538174.60.556410.87301164.90.525490.90857186.90.595601.07091181.30.577761.02579198.80.633521.01241

20072006200720060.672255412110,465Jan Sales 2010-6%10%139,000Mar 123.7%May349.6342.9260.6139.40.398740.5058481.00.231690.5783891.30.261160.69571102.80.294050.71578138.90.397310.77789158.00.451950.92326158.40.453090.95613197.60.565221.02991204.20.584101.06020240.40.687641.15709

STATEWIDE11,27915,252-26%231,900246,800-6%-1%10%144,350Apr 123.8%Jan '09Jun388.5309.7227.2133.60.343890.45963100.40.258430.62267106.90.275160.70862114.60.294980.69130122.50.315320.73856149.00.383530.80153158.90.409010.91067218.10.561391.08933231.50.595881.06407222.00.571431.10803

17,562Feb Sales 20057%9%147,000May 121.8%National164,200Jul360.2283.4248.9138.00.383120.5306293.90.260690.7329496.00.266520.6271295.70.265690.71609132.70.368410.80391178.40.495280.98011187.00.519161.01984203.80.565801.24214197.80.549141.11140210.90.585511.13277

SeptemberSeptemberSeptemberSeptember0.67702995111,890Feb Sales 20105%8%151,000June 122.7%Florida139,500Aug426.5311.2216.3108.40.254160.5088288.20.206800.6496996.70.226730.65658109.30.256270.76020115.50.270810.87574161.60.378900.98194162.20.380301.01989183.10.429311.10944226.10.530131.17600238.70.559671.18374

200720062007200610%8%148,000July 12-2.0%Diff-15.0%Sep343.1244.1169.5116.90.340720.5310887.20.254150.7079287.30.254440.6645790.20.262900.73822115.90.337800.76802138.80.404550.90780181.60.529291.02082193.30.563391.15740181.60.529291.11469149.90.436900.88521

STATEWIDE8,68814,044-38%-29.4%221,200243,300-9%-6.8%24,045March Sales 200511%6%147,000Aug 12-0.7%Oct344.5282.7179.996.80.280990.6515183.30.241800.9457989.90.260960.7416691.30.265020.85813135.80.394191.10918147.50.428161.16838167.30.485631.36590183.50.532661.38168185.10.537301.25984208.50.605221.28161

0.677646080316,294March Sales 20102%7%145,000Sept 12-1.4%FebNov337.9232.7149.173.40.217220.4977682.40.243860.8145791.90.271970.6911096.20.284700.75457113.90.337080.99146141.40.418470.96521153.30.453681.03212172.20.509621.05128199.90.591601.14774- 00.00000

OctoberOctoberOctoberOctober25%9%145,000Oct 120.0%National167,900Dec348.0230.8150.889.70.257760.63142101.30.291090.8357691.90.264080.88832102.70.295110.87346145.00.416671.03005169.30.486491.11380193.90.557181.28043199.70.573851.31711199.00.571841.27575- 00.00000

200720062007200623,537April Sales 200524%11%150,000Nov 123.4%Florida141,900TOTAL*4,034.03,483.32,562.31,463.61,036.01,095.91188.21438.41823.31920.82210.92330.7

STATEWIDE9,16512,846-29%222,100242,700-8%0.712962569616,781April Sales 201016%14%154,000Dec 122.7%Diff-15.5%* May not add due to rounding.DocSales1931.85.4%2036.3CY (10 mos)

12%12%145,000Jan 13-5.8%Jan 080.634670.432772276.86.2%2417.8FY (12 mos)

NovemberNovemberNovemberNovember24,069May Sales 200510%12%150,000Feb 133.4%MarchFeb 080.501910.47318

20072006200720060.695708172316,745May Sales 20109%15%161,500Mar 137.7%National169,700March 080.411040.38020

STATEWIDE8,10611,609-30%215,800239,800-10%17%14%165,000Apr 132.2%Florida141,300FL Price Relative to NationApril 080.472590.47585

25,455June Sales 200518%17%172,500May 134.5%Diff-16.7%Oct 08-8.6%May 080.398740.50584

DecemberDecemberDecemberDecember0.708623060318,038June Sales 20109%15%175,000June 131.4%Nov 08-12.0%June 080.343890.45963

200720062007200621%19%177,500July 131.4%AprilApril '07Dec 08-11.1%July 080.383120.53062Irma2509.6

STATEWIDE8,82812,758-31%-29.9%208,900239,900-13%-10.5%21,669July Sales 200512%19%175,000Aug 13-1.4%National166,000220,500Jan 09-15.0%Aug 080.254160.50882-36.92521.7

12-Month Rolling Average12-Month Rolling Average0.627117079713,589July Sales 201019%17%170,000Sept 13-2.9%Florida138,500237,800Feb 09-15.5%Sept 080.340720.53108-21.9-12.1

STATEWIDE130,241183,988-29%233,600247,100-5%6%17%169,000Oct 13-0.6%Diff-16.6%7.8%Mar 09-16.7%Oct 080.280990.65151-5.7

21,318August 2005-1%13%169,900Nov 130.5%Apr 09-16.6%Nov 080.217220.49776-64.5

0.656581292813,997August 20109%11%172,630Dec 131.6%MayMay 09-17.3%Dec 080.257760.63142

10%12%162,500Jan 14-5.9%National174,600June 09-18.6%Jan '090.296230.54281

2008 Realtor Sales Volume - Existing Homes2008 Median Price - Existing Homes20,368Sept 20052%10%165,000Feb 141.5%Florida144,400July 09-18.8%Feb '090.296390.56133

0.664571877513,536Sept 20103%7%173,000Mar 144.8%Diff-17.3%Aug 09-16.8%March 090.273300.54419

JanuaryJanuary%JanuaryJanuary%4%6%175,000Apr 141.2%Sept 09-19.3%April 090.261630.55704

20082007Chge20082007Chge16,029Oct 20054%4%180,000May 142.9%JuneOct 09-18.4%May 090.231690.57838

STATEWIDE6,7379,360-28%208,600242,700-14%0.74165574911,888Oct 201015%5%185,000June 142.8%National181,900Nov 09-17.9%June 090.258430.62267

5%4%185,000July 140.0%Florida148,000Dec 10-17.2%July 090.260690.73294

FebruaryFebruaryFebruaryFebruary17,219Nov 20055%3%180,000Aug 14-2.7%Diff-18.6%Jan 10-20.1%Aug 090.206800.64969

20082007200820070.69109704411,900Nov 201014%6%180,000Sept 140.0%Feb 10-19.9%Sept 090.254150.70792

STATEWIDE8,31011,132-25%198,900237,000-16%18%5%177,000Oct 14-1.7%JulyMar 10-19.2%Oct 090.241800.94579

17,505Dec 200511%4%176,000Nov 14-0.6%National181,700Apr 10-18.8%Nov 090.243860.81457

MarchMarchMarchMarch0.888317623515,550Dec 201016%7%185,000Dec 145.1%Florida147,600May 10-19.5%Dec 090.291090.83576

200820072008200710%7%175,000Jan 15-5.4%Diff-18.8%June 10-21.9%Jan 100.314900.67226

STATEWIDE9,14212,356-26%-26.5%205,600242,800-15%-15.1%15,567Jan 200519%9%179,995Feb 152.9%July 10-24.6%The chart above is for single-family residences. Data from the American Community Surveys suggests that Florida was above the national median price for owner-occupied housing units from 2005 through most of 2008.Feb 100.312100.67703

0.780561444112,151Jan 201125%9%190,000Mar 155.6%AugustAug 10-24.8%75.2%March 100.301220.67765

AprilAprilAprilApril18%11%195,000Apr 152.6%National177,100Sept 10-22.6%77.4%April 100.287440.71296

200820072008200717,562Feb 20058%11%200,000May 152.6%Florida147,400Oct 10-20.3%79.7%May 100.261160.69571

STATEWIDE11,20012,358-9%198,900239,000-17%0.780150324613,701Feb 201120%10%203,500June 151.8%Diff-16.8%Nov 10-22.4%77.6%June 100.275160.70862

22%8%199,900July 15-1.8%Dec 10-21.4%78.6%July 100.266520.62712

MayMayMayMay24,045March 20059%11%199,900Aug 150.0%SeptemberJan 11-22.9%77.1%Aug 100.226730.65658

20082007200820070.770305676918,522March 201113%11%199,900Sept 150.0%National175,900Feb 11-22.3%77.7%Sept 100.254440.66457

STATEWIDE12,17512,882-5%203,300239,000-15%1%12%198,995Oct 15-0.5%Florida142,000March 11-21.4%78.6%Oct 100.260960.74166

23,537April 20052%14%200,000Nov 150.5%Diff-19.3%April 11-18.4%81.6%Nov 100.271970.69110

JuneJuneJuneJune0.730424438117,192April 20113%12%206,500Dec 153.3%May 11-20.2%79.8%Dec 100.264080.88832

20082007200820071%14%199,000Jan 16-3.6%OctoberJune 11-21.6%78.4%Jan 110.392230.78056

STATEWIDE11,70012,276-5%-6.5%205,500244,400-16%-15.9%24,069May 20050%11%200,000Feb 160.5%National172,000July 11-20.5%79.5%Feb 110.343950.78015

0.715775478817,228May 2011-1%10%209,500Mar 164.8%Florida140,300Aug 11-19.7%80.3%March 110.312520.77031

JulyJulyJulyJuly-1%9%213,000Apr 161.7%Diff-18.4%Sept 11-19.0%81.0%April 110.318040.73042

200820072008200725,455June 20054%11%221,050May 163.8%Oct 11-18.6%81.4%May 110.294050.71578

STATEWIDE11,49811,4920%193,600238,900-19%0.691298369717,597June 20110%11%225,000June 161.8%NovemberNov 11-20.7%79.3%June 110.294980.69130

-8%12%223,238July 16-0.8%National169,300Dec 11-17.4%82.6%July 110.265690.71609

AugustAugustAugustAugust21,669July 20058%13%225,000Aug 160.8%Florida139,000Jan 12-16.6%83.4%Aug 110.256270.76020

20082007200820070.716092113215,517July 2011-0%11%222,500Sept 16-1.1%Diff-17.9%Feb 12-14.2%85.8%Sept 110.262900.73822

STATEWIDE10,84711,282-4%186,900234,100-20%-5%12%220,000Oct 16-1.1%Mar 12-15.8%84.2%Oct 110.265020.85813

21,318Aug 200513%10%220,000Nov 160.0%DecemberApr 12-17.1%82.9%Nov 110.284700.75457

SeptemberSeptemberSeptemberSeptember0.760202645716,206Aug 20111%9%226,000Dec 162.7%National169,600May 12-18.4%81.6%Dec 110.295110.87346

20082007200820075%10%220,000Jan 17-2.7%Florida140,400June 12-20.4%79.6%Jan 120.415390.77369

STATEWIDE10,8178,72524%6.7%175,100224,700-22%-20.4%20,368Sept 2005-0%13%225,000Feb 172.3%Diff-17.2%July 12-21.5%78.5%Feb 120.370280.81255

0.738216810715,036Sept 20119%10%231,900Mar 173.1%Aug 12-20.8%79.2%March 120.310950.76398

OctoberOctoberOctoberOctober-1%10%234,900Apr 171.3%January 10Sept 12-18.9%81.1%April 120.384640.74538

200820072008200716,029Oct 20058%8%239,000May 171.7%National163,800Oct 12-18.1%81.9%May 120.397310.77789

STATEWIDE10,4439,11815%169,700222,200-24%0.858132135513,755Oct 20114%9%245,000June 172.5%Florida130,900Nov 12-16.4%83.6%June 120.315320.73856

2%7%240,000July 17-2.0%Diff-20.1%Dec 12-14.6%85.4%July 120.368410.80391

NovemberNovemberNovemberNovember17,219Nov 20051%7%240,000Aug 170.0%Jan 13-15.3%84.7%Aug 120.270810.87574

20082007200820070.754573436312,993Nov 2011-20%8%239,900Sept 17-0.0%FebruaryFeb 13-13.5%86.5%Sept 120.337800.76802

STATEWIDE8,5718,2694%158,300217,000-27%2%7%235,558Oct 17-1.8%National163,900Mar 13-12.5%87.5%Oct 120.394191.10918

17,505Dec 2005Florida131,300Apr 13-14.1%85.9%Nov 120.337080.99146

DecemberDecemberDecemberDecember0.873464724415,290Dec 2011Diff-19.9%May 13-15.3%84.7%Dec 120.416671.03005

2008200720082007PeakJune 13-18.5%81.5%Jan 130.622340.87467

STATEWIDE11,0538,71227%15.0%155,500213,600-27%-26.0%15,567Jan 2005257,800June 060P-t-TMarchJuly 13-16.7%83.3%Feb 130.471760.88777

12-Month Rolling Average12-Month Rolling Average0.773687929612,044Jan 2012250,800July 06-0.0271528317-2.7%National169,500Aug 13-16.5%83.5%March 120.398490.81202

STATEWIDE124,215129,855-4%187,800234,300-20%248,400Aug 06-0.0364623739-3.6%Florida137,000Sept 13-14.4%85.6%April 130.556410.87301

17,562Feb 2005243,900Sept 06-0.0539177657-5.4%Diff-19.2%Oct 13-14.5%85.5%May 130.451950.92326

0.812549823514,270Feb 2012242,500Oct 06-0.059348332-5.9%Nov 13-13.0%87.0%June 130.383530.80153

242,500Nov 06-0.059348332-5.9%AprilDec 13-12.7%87.3%July 130.495280.98011

2009 Realtor Sales Volume - Existing Homes2009 Median Price - Existing Homes24,045March 2005241,100Dec 06-0.0647788984-6.5%National172,500Jan 14-13.5%86.5%Aug 130.378900.98194

0.763984196318,370March 2012239,300Jan 07-0.0717610551-7.2%Florida140,100Feb 14-12.6%87.4%Sept 130.404550.90780

JanuaryJanuary%JanuaryJanuary%235,500Feb 07-0.0865011637-8.7%Diff-18.8%Mar 14-12.0%88.0%Oct 130.428161.16838

20092008Chge20092008Chge23,537April 2005236,000March 07-0.0845616757-8.5%Apr 14-12.9%87.1%Nov 130.418470.96521

STATEWIDE8,4506,81024%139,500206,900-33%0.745379615117,544April 2012237,800April 07-0.077579519-7.8%MayMay 14-15.1%84.9%Dec 130.486491.11380

237,000May 07-0.0806826998-8.1%National174,500June 14-17.0%83.0%Jan 140.541281.01664

FebruaryFebruaryFebruaryFebruary24,069May 2005243,200June 07-0.0566330489-5.7%Florida140,400July 14-16.9%83.1%Feb 140.515070.90115

20092008200920080.777888570418,723May 2012237,500July 07-0.0787432118-7.9%Diff-19.5%Aug 14-17.8%82.2%Mar 140.398810.83514

STATEWIDE9,8588,18120%141,900199,300-29%231,900Aug 07-0.1004654771-10.0%Sept 14-14.1%85.9%Apr 140.525490.90857

25,455June 2005221,200Sept 07-0.1419705198-14.2%JuneOct 14-14.9%85.1%May 140.453090.95613

MarchMarchMarchMarch0.7385582418,800June 2012222,100Oct 07-0.1384794414-13.8%National183,500Nov 14-15.3%84.7%June 140.409010.91067

2009200820092008215,800Nov 07-0.1629169899-16.3%Florida143,400Dec 14-11.6%88.4%July 140.519161.01984

STATEWIDE13,08510,08030%24.8%141,300201,700-30%-30.4%21,669July 2005208,900Dec 07-0.189681924-19.0%Diff-21.9%Jan 15-11.9%88.1%Aug 140.380301.01989

0.803913424717,420July 2012208,600Jan 08-0.1908456168-19.1%Feb 15-11.6%88.4%Sept 140.529291.02082

AprilAprilAprilApril198,900Feb 08-0.2284716835-22.8%JulyMar 15-10.4%89.6%Oct 140.485631.36590

200920082009200821,318Aug 2005205,600March 08-0.2024825446-20.2%National183,000Apr 15-11.4%88.6%Nov 140.453681.03212

STATEWIDE13,11111,13318%138,500199,500-31%0.875738812318,669Aug 2012198,900April 08-0.2284716835-22.8%Florida138,000May 15-13.2%86.8%Dec 140.557181.28043

203,300May 08-0.2114041893-21.1%Diff-24.6%June 15-14.5%85.5%Jan 150.552861.03340

MayMayMayMay20,368Sept 2005205,500June 08-0.2028704422-20.3%July 15-14.4%85.6%Feb 150.587691.06486

20092008200920080.768018460315,643Sept 2012193,600July 08-0.249030256-24.9%AugustAug 15-13.1%86.9%Mar 150.584561.03186

STATEWIDE13,92112,04416%144,400203,800-29%186,900Aug 08-0.2750193949-27.5%National178,100Sept 15-10.5%89.5%Apr 150.595601.07091

16,029Oct 2005175,100Sept 08-0.3207913111-32.1%Florida134,000Oct 15-9.8%90.2%May 150.565221.02991

JuneJuneJuneJune1.109177116517,779Oct 2012169,700Oct 08-0.3417377812-34.2%Diff-24.8%Nov 15-9.7%90.3%June 150.561391.08933

2009200820092008158,300Nov 08-0.3859581071-38.6%Dec 15-8.2%91.8%July 150.565801.24214

STATEWIDE15,85012,33928%20.6%148,000205,300-28%-29.2%17,219Nov 2005155,500Dec 08-0.3968192397-39.7%SeptemberJan 16-7.4%92.6%Aug 150.429311.10944

0.991462918917,072Nov 2012139,500Jan '09-0.4588828549-45.9%National172,400Feb 16-6.4%93.6%Sept 150.563391.15740

JulyJulyJulyJuly141,900Feb '09-0.4495733126-45.0%Florida133,400Mar 16-6.1%93.9%Oct 150.532661.38168

200920082009200817,505Dec 2005141,300March 09-0.4519006982-45.2%Diff-22.6%Apr 16-8.2%91.8%Nov 150.509621.05128

STATEWIDE15,88211,59537%147,600193,800-24%1.030048557618,031Dec 2012138,500April 09-0.4627618309-46.3%May 16-8.0%92.0%Dec 150.573851.31711

144,400May 09-0.4398758728-44.0%OctoberJune16-9.9%90.1%Jan 160.670151.02756

AugustAugustAugustAugust15,567Jan 2005148,000June 09-0.4259115593-42.6%National171,500July 16-8.9%91.1%Feb 160.712951.03399

20092008200920080.874670777913,616Jan 2013147,600July 09-0.4274631497-42.7%Florida136,600Aug 16-7.0%93.0%Mar 160.555070.98806

STATEWIDE13,85010,81328%147,400188,500-22%147,400Aug 09-0.4282389449-42.8%Diff-20.3%Sept 16-6.1%93.9%Apr 160.577761.02579

17,562Feb 2005142,000Sept 09-0.4491854151-44.9%Oct 16-6.6%93.4%May 160.584101.06020

SeptemberSeptemberSeptemberSeptember0.887769046815,591Feb 2013140,300Oct 09-0.4557796742-45.6%NovemberNov 16-6.8%93.2%June 160.595881.06407

2009200820092008139,000Nov 09-0.4608223429-46.1%National170,900Dec 16-3.7%96.3%July 160.549141.11140

STATEWIDE14,41910,77834%32.9%142,000174,900-19%-21.5%24,045March 2005140,400Dec 09-0.4553917766-45.5%Florida132,700Jan 17-3.8%96.2%Aug 160.530131.17600

0.812019130819,525March 2013130,900Jan 10-0.4922420481-49.2%Diff-22.4%Feb 17-2.1%97.9%Sept 160.529291.11469

OctoberOctoberOctoberOctober131,300Feb 10-0.4906904577-49.1%Mar 17-2.6%97.4%Oct 160.537301.25984

200920082009200823,537April 2005137,000March 10-0.4685802948-46.9%DecemberApr 17-4.6%95.4%Nov 160.591601.14774

STATEWIDE15,16010,44445%140,300169,700-17%0.873008454820,548April 2013140,100April 10-0.4565554694-45.7%National169,300May 17-6.0%94.0%Dec 160.571841.27575

140,400May 10-0.4553917766-45.5%Florida133,100June 17-7.7%92.3%Jan 170.761671.07786

NovemberNovemberNovemberNovember24,069May 2005143,400June 10-0.4437548487-44.4%Diff-21.4%July 17-7.8%92.2%Feb 170.733761.02682

20092008200920080.923262287622,222May 2013138,000July 10-0.4647013189-46.5%Aug 17-5.8%94.2%Mar 170.597431.07802

STATEWIDE14,0268,69461%139,000158,200-12%134,000Aug 10-0.4802172227-48.0%Jan-11Sept 17-3.7%96.3%Apr 170.633521.01241

25,455June 2005133,400Sept 10-0.4825446082-48.3%National158,500Oct 17-4.7%95.3%May 170.687641.15709

DecemberDecemberDecemberDecember0.801532115520,403June 2013136,600Oct 10-0.4701318852-47.0%Florida122,200June 170.571431.10803

2009200820092008132,700Nov 10-0.4852598914-48.5%Diff-22.9%4.7%July 170.585511.13277

STATEWIDE14,63011,01333%46.4%140,400155,300-10%-13.0%21,669July 2005133,100Dec 10-0.483708301-48.4%Aug 170.559671.18374

12-Month Rolling Average12-Month Rolling Average0.980109834321,238July 2013122,200Jan 11-0.5259891389-52.6%FebruarySept 170.436900.88521

STATEWIDE163,148124,16831%142,600187,700-24%121,900Feb 11-0.5271528317-52.7%National156,900Oct 170.605221.28161

21,318Aug 2005126,300March 11-0.5100853375-51.0%Florida121,900

0.981940144520,933Aug 2013131,700April 11-0.4891388673-48.9%Diff-22.3%

135,500May 11-0.4743987587-47.4%

2010 Realtor Sales Volume - Existing Homes2010 Median Price - Existing Homes20,368Sept 2005138,000June 11-0.4647013189-46.5%March

0.907796543618,490Sept 2013136,500July 11-0.4705197828-47.1%National160,600

JanuaryJanuary%JanuaryJanuary%137,500Aug 11-0.4666408068-46.7%Florida126,300

20102009Chge20102009Chge16,029Oct 2005133,900Sept 11-0.4806051202-48.1%Diff-21.4%

STATEWIDE10,4658,44424%130,900139,400-6%1.168382307118,728Oct 2013131,200Oct 11-0.4910783553-49.1%

130,100Nov 11-0.4953452289-49.5%April

FebruaryFebruaryFebruaryFebruary17,219Nov 2005134,300Dec 11-0.4790535299-47.9%National161,300

20102009201020090.965212846316,620Nov 2013129,000Jan 12-0.4996121024-50.0%Florida131,700

STATEWIDE11,8909,86721%131,300141,800-7%134,000Feb 12-0.4802172227-48.0%Diff-18.4%

17,505Dec 2005139,000Mar 12-0.4608223429-46.1%

MarchMarchMarchMarch1.113796058319,497Dec 2013144,350Apr 12-0.4400698216-44.0%May

2010200920102009147,000May 12-0.4297905353-43.0%National169,800

STATEWIDE16,29413,09024%23.0%137,000141,300-3%-5.5%15,567Jan 2005151,000June 12-0.4142746315-41.4%Florida135,500

1.016637759415,826Jan 2014148,000July 12-0.4259115593-42.6%Diff-20.2%

AprilAprilAprilApril147,000Aug 12-0.4297905353-43.0%

201020092010200917,562Feb 2005145,000Sept 12-0.4375484872-43.8%June

STATEWIDE16,78113,24427%140,100138,1001%0.901150210715,826Feb 2014145,000Oct 12-0.4375484872-43.8%National176,100

150,000Nov 12-0.4181536074-41.8%Florida138,000

MayMayMayMay24,045March 2005154,000Dec 12-0.4026377036-40.3%Diff-21.6%

20102009201020090.835142441320,081March 2014145,000Jan 13-0.4375484872-43.8%

STATEWIDE16,74514,17218%140,400143,800-2%150,000Feb 13-0.4181536074-41.8%July

23,537April 2005161,500Mar 13-0.373545384-37.4%National171,700

JuneJuneJuneJune0.908569486321,385April 2014165,000Apr 13-0.3599689682-36.0%Florida136,500

2010200920102009172,500May 13-0.3308766486-33.1%Diff-20.5%

STATEWIDE18,03815,73215%19.8%143,400147,700-3%-1.3%24,069May 2005175,000June 13-0.3211792087-32.1%

0.956126137423,013May 2014177,500July 13-0.3114817688-31.1%Aug

JulyJulyJulyJuly175,000Aug 13-0.3211792087-32.1%National171,200

201020092010200925,455June 2005170,000Sept 13-0.3405740884-34.1%Florida137,500

STATEWIDE13,58915,762-14%138,000147,600-7%0.91066588123,181June 2014169,000Oct 13-0.3444530644-34.4%Diff-19.7%

169,900Nov 13-0.340961986-34.1%

AugustAugustAugustAugust21,669July 2005172,630Dec 13-0.3303723817-33.0%Sept

20102009201020091.019844016822,099July 2014162,500Jan 14-0.3696664081-37.0%National165,400

STATEWIDE13,99713,9081%134,000146,500-9%165,000Feb 14-0.3599689682-36.0%Florida133,900

21,318Aug 2005173,000Mar 14-0.3289371606-32.9%Diff-19.0%

SeptemberSeptemberSeptemberSeptember1.019889295421,742Aug 2014175,000Aprl 14-0.3211792087-32.1%

2010200920102009180,000May 14-0.3017843289-30.2%Oct

STATEWIDE13,53614,781-8%-7.2%133,400141,700-6%-7.0%20,368Sept 2005185,000June 14-0.2823894492-28.2%National161,100

1.020816967820,792Sept 2014185,000July 14-0.2823894492-28.2%Florida131,200

OctoberOctoberOctoberOctober180,000Aug 14-0.3017843289-30.2%Diff-18.6%

201020092010200916,029Oct 2005180,000Sept 14-0.3017843289-30.2%

STATEWIDE11,88814,980-21%136,600140,900-3%1.365899307521,894Oct 2014177,000Oct 14-0.3134212568-31.3%Nov

176,000Nov 14-0.3173002327-31.7%National164,000

NovemberNovemberNovemberNovember17,219Nov 2005185,000Dec 14-0.2823894492-28.2%Florida130,100

20102009201020091.032115686217,772Nov 2014175,000Jan 15-0.3211792087-32.1%Diff-20.7%

STATEWIDE11,90013,961-15%132,700139,300-5%179,995Feb 15-0.3018037238-30.2%

17,505Dec 2005190,000Mar 15-0.2629945694-26.3%Dec

DecemberDecemberDecemberDecember1.280434161722,414Dec 2014195,000April 15-0.2435996897-24.4%National162,600

2010200920102009200,000May 15-0.2242048099-22.4%Florida134,300

STATEWIDE15,55014,9234%-10.4%133,100139,800-5%-4.2%15,567Jan 2005203,500June 15-0.2106283941-21.1%Diff-17.4%

12-Month Rolling Average12-Month Rolling Average1.0334016,087Jan 2015199,900July 15-0.2245927075-22.5%

STATEWIDE170,848162,8735%136,500142,500-4%199,900Aug 15-0.2245927075-22.5%Jan

17,562Feb 2005199,900Sept 15-0.2245927075-22.5%National154,600

1.06485593918,701Feb 2015198,995Oct 15-0.2281031808-22.8%Florida129,000

200,000Nov 15-0.2242048099-22.4%Diff-16.6%

2011 Realtor Sales Volume - Existing Homes2011 Median Price - Existing Homes24,045March 2005206,500Dec 15-0.1989914663-19.9%

1.031856934924,811March 2015199,000Jan 16-0.2280837859-22.8%Feb

JanuaryJanuary%JanuaryJanuary%200,000Feb 16-0.2242048099-22.4%National156,100

20112010Chge20112010Chge23,537April 2005209,500Mar 16-0.1873545384-18.7%Florida134,000

STATEWIDE12,15110,70214%122,200131,000-7%1.070909631625,206April 2015213,000Apr 16-0.1737781226-17.4%Diff-14.2%

221,050May 16-0.1425523662-14.3%

FebruaryFebruaryFebruaryFebruary24,069May 2005225,000June16-0.1272304112-12.7%March

20112010201120101.029913997324,789May 2015223,238July 16-0.1340651668-13.4%National165,100

STATEWIDE13,70112,16413%121,900124,500-2%225,000Aug 16-0.1272304112-12.7%Florida139,000

25,455June 2005222,500Sept 16-0.136927851-13.7%Diff-15.8%

MarchMarchMarchMarch1.08933411927,729June 2015220,000Oct 16-0.1466252909-14.7%

2011201020112010220,000Nov 16-0.1466252909-14.7%April

STATEWIDE18,52216,54012%12.7%126,300136,000-7%-5.3%21,669July 2005226,000Dec 16-0.1233514352-12.3%National174,100

1.242143153826,916July 2015220,000Jan 17-0.1466252909-14.7%Florida144,350

AprilAprilAprilApril225,000Feb 17-0.1272304112-12.7%Diff-17.1%

201120102011201021,318Aug 2005231,900Mar 17-0.1004654771-10.0%

STATEWIDE17,19216,7812%131,700140,300-6%1.109438033623,651Aug 2015234,900Apr 17-0.0888285493-8.9%May

239,000May 17-0.0729247479-7.3%National180,200

MayMayMayMay20,368Sept 2005245,000June 17-0.0496508922-5.0%Florida147,000

20112010201120101.157403770623,574Sept 2015240,000July 17-0.0690457719-6.9%Diff-18.4%

STATEWIDE17,22816,7903%135,500142,900-5%240,000Aug 17-0.0690457719-6.9%

16,029Oct 2005239,900Sept 17-0.0694336695-6.9%June

JuneJuneJuneJune1.381683199222,147Oct 2015235,558Oct 17-0.0862761831-8.6%National189,600

2011201020112010Florida151,000

STATEWIDE17,59718,402-4%0.2%138,000141,200-2%-4.5%17,219Nov 2005Diff-20.4%

1.051280562218,102Nov 2015

JulyJulyJulyJulyJuly

201120102011201017,505Dec 2005National188,600

STATEWIDE15,51713,87412%136,500137,700-1%1.317109397323,056Dec 2015Florida148,000

Diff-21.5%

AugustAugustAugustAugust15,567Jan 2005

20112010201120101.027558296415,996Jan 2016August

STATEWIDE16,20614,13115%137,500134,9002%National185,500

17,562Feb 2005Florida147,000

SeptemberSeptemberSeptemberSeptember1.033993850418,159Feb 2016Diff-20.8%

2011201020112010

STATEWIDE15,03613,72310%12.0%133,900135,000-1%0.1%24,045March 2005September

0.988064046623,758March 2016National178,900

OctoberOctoberOctoberOctoberFlorida145,000

201120102011201023,537April 2005Diff-18.9%

STATEWIDE13,75512,14513%131,200136,600-4%1.02578918324,144April 2016

October

NovemberNovemberNovemberNovember24,069May 2005National177,000

20112010201120101.060201919525,518May 2016Florida145,000

STATEWIDE12,99311,66411%130,100130,600-0%Diff-18.1%

25,455June 2005

DecemberDecemberDecemberDecember1.064073855827,086June 2016November

2011201020112010National179,400

STATEWIDE15,29015,546-2%7.7%134,300133,0001%-1.1%21,669July 2005Florida150,000

12-Month Rolling Average12-Month Rolling Average1.111403387324,083July 2016Diff-16.4%

STATEWIDE185,921172,4628%131,700135,900-3%

21,318Aug 2005December

1.176001501125,070Aug 2016National180,300

Florida154,000

2012 Realtor Sales Volume - Existing Homes2012 Median Price - Existing Homes20,368Sept 2005Diff-14.6%

1.114689709322,704Sept 2016

JanuaryJanuary%JanuaryJanuary%January

20122011Chge20122011Chge16,029Oct 2005National171,100

STATEWIDE12,04412,751-6%129,000122,5005%1.259841537220,194Oct 2016Florida145,000

Diff-15.3%

FebruaryFebruaryFebruaryFebruary17,219Nov 2005

20122011201220111.147743771419,763Nov 2016February

STATEWIDE14,27014,997-5%134,000125,0007%National173,500

17,505Dec 2005Florida150,000

MarchMarchMarchMarch1.275749785822,332Dec 2016Diff-13.5%

2012201120122011

STATEWIDE18,37019,480-6%-5.4%139,000126,00010%7.6%15,567Jan 2005March

1.077916,779Jan 2017National184,500

AprilAprilAprilAprilFlorida161,500

201220112012201117,562Feb 2005Diff-12.5%

STATEWIDE17,54417,667-1%144,350131,00010%1.026819268918,033Feb 2017

April

MayMayMayMay24,045March 2005National192,100

20122011201220101.078020378525,921March 2016Florida165,000

STATEWIDE18,72317,4627%147,000135,0009%Diff-14.1%

23,537April 2005

JuneJuneJuneJune1.012405999123,829April 2017May

2012201120122011National203,600

STATEWIDE18,80017,8615%3.9%151,000139,5008%9.1%24,069May 2005Florida172,500

1.157090032827,850May 2017Diff-15.3%

JulyJulyJulyJuly

201220112012201125,455June 2005June

STATEWIDE17,42015,86310%148,000137,3008%1.108033785128,205June 2017National214,600

Florida175,000

AugustAugustAugustAugust21,669July 2005Diff-18.5%

20122011201220111.13277031724,546July 2017

STATEWIDE18,66916,84411%147,000139,0006%July

21,318Aug 2005National213,000

SeptemberSeptemberSeptemberSeptember1.183741439225,235Aug 2017Florida177,500

2012201120122011Diff-16.7%

STATEWIDE15,64315,3382%7.5%145,000135,0007%7.0%20,368Sept 2005

0.885212097418,030Sept 2017August

OctoberOctoberOctoberOctoberNational209,700

201220112012201116,029Oct 2005Florida175,000

STATEWIDE17,77914,18825%145,000133,0009%1.281614573620,543Oct 2017Diff-16.5%

NovemberNovemberNovemberNovember17,219Nov 2005September

20122011201220111.160926883119,990Nov 2017National198,500

STATEWIDE17,07213,72524%150,000134,90011%Florida170,000

17,505Dec 2005Diff-14.4%

DecemberDecemberDecemberDecember1.308369037422,903Dec 2017

2012201120122011October

STATEWIDE18,03115,57616%21.8%154,000135,00014%11.4%15,567Jan 2005National197,600

12-Month Rolling Average12-Month Rolling Average1.064045737816,564Jan 2018Florida169,000

STATEWIDE203,426187,4569%145,000133,5009%Diff-14.5%

17,562Feb 2005

1.06024370818,620Feb 2018November

REVISEDNational195,300

2013 Realtor Sales Volume - Existing Homes2013 Median Price - Existing Homes24,045Mar 2005Florida169,900

1.040548970725,020Mar 2018Diff-13.0%


20132012Chge20132012Chge23,537Apr 2005December

STATEWIDE13,61612,17912%145,000129,00012%1.053830139824,804Apr 2018National197,700

Florida172,630

FebruaryFebruaryFebruaryFebruary24,069May 2005Diff-12.7%

20132012201320121.166271968128,071May 2018

STATEWIDE15,59114,14210%150,000133,50012%January

National187,900

MarchMarchMarchMarchFlorida162,500

2013201220132012Diff-13.5%

STATEWIDE19,52517,8989%10.4%161,500139,90015%13.4%

February

AprilAprilAprilAprilNational188,800

2013201220132012Florida165,000

STATEWIDE20,54817,53517%165,000145,00014%Diff-12.6%

MayMayMayMayMarch

2013201220132012National196,500


Diff-12.0%

JuneJuneJuneJune

2013201220132012April

STATEWIDE20,40318,7939%14.7%175,000152,00015%15.2%National201,000

Florida175,000

JulyJulyJulyJulyDiff-12.9%

2013201220132012

STATEWIDE21,23817,56021%177,500149,55019%May

National212,000

AugustAugustAugustAugustFlorida180,000

2013201220132012Diff-15.1%

STATEWIDE20,93318,61412%175,000147,50019%

June

SeptemberSeptemberSeptemberSeptemberNational223,000

2013201220132012Florida185,000

STATEWIDE18,49015,56119%17.4%170,000145,00017%18.2%Diff-17.0%

OctoberOctoberOctoberOctoberJuly

2013201220132012National222,500


Diff-16.9%

NovemberNovemberNovemberNovember

2013201220132012Aug


Florida180,000

DecemberDecemberDecemberDecemberDiff-17.8%

2013201220132012

STATEWIDE19,49717,9599%4.6%172,630154,90011%13.8%Sept

12-Month Rolling Average12-Month Rolling AverageNational209,600


Diff-14.1%

2014 Realtor Sales Volume - Existing Homes2014 Median Price - Existing HomesOct

National208,000

JanuaryJanuary%JanuaryJanuary%Florida177,000

20142013Chge20142013ChgeDiff-14.9%

STATEWIDE15,00013,61610%162,500145,00012%

Nov

FebruaryFebruaryFebruaryFebruaryNational207,900

2014201320142013Florida176,000

STATEWIDE15,82615,5912%165,000150,00010%Diff-15.3%

MarchMarchMarchMarchDec

2014201320142013National209,200

STATEWIDE20,08119,5253%4.8%173,000161,5007%9.7%Florida185,000

Diff-11.6%

AprilAprilAprilApril

2014201320142013Jan


Florida175,000

MayMayMayMayDiff-11.9%

2014201320142013

STATEWIDE23,01322,2224%180,000172,5004%Feb

National203,500

JuneJuneJuneJuneFlorida179,995

2014201320142013Diff-11.6%

STATEWIDE23,18120,23515%7.4%185,000175,9005%5.2%

March

JulyJulyJulyJulyNational212,100

2014201320142013Florida190,000

STATEWIDE22,09921,0425%185,000178,5004%Diff-10.4%

AugustAugustAugustAugustApril

2014201320142013National220,000


Diff-11.4%

SeptemberSeptemberSeptemberSeptember

2014201320142013May


Florida200,000

OctoberOctoberOctoberOctoberDiff-13.2%

2014201320142013

STATEWIDE21,89418,59318%177,000169,1965%JuneNationalFlorida

National237,900June 2015237,900203,500

NovemberNovemberNovemberNovemberFlorida203,500July 2015233,400199,900

2014201320142013Diff-14.5%Aug 2015230,000199,900

STATEWIDE17,77216,06111%176,000170,0004%Sept 2015223,300199,900

JulyOct 2015220,600198,995

DecemberDecemberDecemberDecemberNational233,400Nov 2015221,400200,000

2014201320142013Florida199,900Dec 2015224,900206,500

STATEWIDE22,41419,35516%14.7%185,000173,0007%5.0%Diff-14.4%Jan 2016214,800199,000

12-Month Rolling Average12-Month Rolling AverageFeb 2016213,600200,000

STATEWIDE240,500225,4606.7%178,000168,5005.6%AugMarch 2016223,100209,500

National230,000April 2016232,000213,000

Florida199,900May 2016240,300221,050

2015 Realtor Sales Volume - Existing Homes2015 Median Price - Existing HomesDiff-13.1%June 2016249,800225,000

July 2016245,100223,238

JanuaryJanuary%JanuaryJanuary%SeptAug 2016241,900225,000

20152014Chge20152014ChgeNational223,300Sept 2016236,900222,500

STATEWIDE16,08714,62810%175,000163,0007%Florida199,900Oct 2016235,600220,000

Diff-10.5%Nov 2016236,000220,000

FebruaryFebruaryFebruaryFebruaryDec 2016234,600226,000

2015201420152014OctJan 2017228,700220,000

STATEWIDE18,70115,71219%179,995165,0009%National220,600Feb 2017229,800225,000

Florida198,995Mar 2017238,000231,900

MarchMarchMarchMarchDiff-9.8%Apr 2017246,300234,900

2015201420152014May 2017254,300239,000

STATEWIDE24,81119,91125%17.9%190,000174,0009%8.5%NovJune 2017265,500245,000

National221,400July 2017260,300240,000

AprilAprilAprilAprilFlorida200,000Aug 2017254,800240,000

2015201420152014Diff-9.7%Sept 2017249,100239,900

STATEWIDE25,20621,38518%195,000175,00011%Oct 2017247,200235,558

DecNov 2017248,200240,000

MayMayMayMayNational224,900Dec 2017248,100244,185

2015201420152014Florida206,500

STATEWIDE24,78923,0138%200,000180,00011%Diff-8.2%

JuneJuneJuneJuneJan94.7%

2015201420152014National214,8005.3%

STATEWIDE27,72923,18120%15.1%203,500185,00010%10.8%Florida199,000

Diff-7.4%

JulyJulyJulyJuly

2015201420152014Feb


Florida200,000

AugustAugustAugustAugustDiff-6.4%

2015201420152014

STATEWIDE23,65121,7429%199,900180,00011%March

National223,100

SeptemberSeptemberSeptemberSeptemberFlorida209,500

2015201420152014Diff-6.1%

STATEWIDE23,57420,79213%14.7%199,900180,00011%10.1%

April

OctoberOctoberOctoberOctoberNational232,000

2015201420152014Florida213,000

STATEWIDE22,14721,8941%198,995177,00012%Diff-8.2%

NovemberNovemberNovemberNovemberMay

2015201420152014National240,300


Diff-8.0%

DecemberDecemberDecemberDecember

2015201420152014June


12-Month Rolling Average12-Month Rolling AverageFlorida225,000

STATEWIDE266,621240,50010.9%196,000178,00010.1%Diff-9.9%

July

2016 Realtor Sales Volume - Existing Homes2016 Median Price - Existing HomesNational245,100

Florida223,238

JanuaryJanuary%JanuaryJanuary%Diff-8.9%

20162015Chge20162015Chge

STATEWIDE15,99615,7621%199,000174,90014%August

National241,900

FebruaryFebruaryFebruaryFebruaryFlorida225,000

2016201520162015Diff-7.0%

STATEWIDE18,15918,0780%200,000179,99911%

September

MarchMarchMarchMarchNational236,900

2016201520162015Florida222,500

STATEWIDE23,75823,902-1%0.4%209,500190,00010%11.7%Diff-6.1%

AprilAprilAprilAprilOctober

2016201520162015National235,600

STATEWIDE24,14424,292-1%213,000195,0009%Florida220,000

Diff-6.6%

MayMayMayMay

2016201520162015November


Florida220,000

JuneJuneJuneJuneDiff-6.8%

2016201520162015

STATEWIDE27,08626,9730%1.4%225,000203,00011%10.2%December

National234,600

JulyJulyJulyJulyFlorida226,000

2016201520162015Diff-3.7%

STATEWIDE24,08326,165-8%223,238199,99912%

January 17

AugustAugustAugustAugustNational228,700

2016201520162015Florida220,000

STATEWIDE25,07023,1668%225,000199,90013%Diff-3.8%

SeptemberSeptemberSeptemberSeptemberFebruary 17

2016201520162015National229,800

STATEWIDE22,70422,813-0%-0.1%222,500199,90011%11.8%Florida225,000

Diff-2.1%

OctoberOctoberOctoberOctober

2016201520162015March 17


Florida231,900

NovemberNovemberNovemberNovemberDiff-2.6%

2016201520162015

STATEWIDE19,76317,52313%220,000199,99010%April 17

National246,300

DecemberDecemberDecemberDecemberFlorida234,900

2016201520162015Diff-4.6%

STATEWIDE22,33222,1571%2.8%226,000207,0009%10.3%

12-Month Rolling Average12-Month Rolling AverageMay 17

STATEWIDE268,731266,2090.9%219,900196,00012.2%National254,300

Florida239,000

Diff-6.0%

2017 Realtor Sales Volume - Existing Homes2017 Median Price - Existing Homes

June 17

JanuaryJanuary%JanuaryJanuary%National265,500

20172016Chge20172016ChgeFlorida245,000

STATEWIDE16,77915,9485%220,000199,90010%Diff-7.7%

FebruaryFebruaryFebruaryFebruaryJuly 17

2017201620172016National260,300

STATEWIDE18,03318,117-0%225,000200,00013%Florida240,000

Diff-7.8%


2017201620172016Aug 17


Florida240,000

AprilAprilAprilAprilDiff-5.8%

2017201620172016

STATEWIDE23,82924,109-1%234,900213,00010%Sept 17

National249,100

MayMayMayMayFlorida239,900

2017201620172016Diff-3.7%

STATEWIDE27,85025,8828%239,000221,9908%

Oct 17

JuneJuneJuneJuneNational247,200

2017201620172016Florida235,55895.3%

STATEWIDE28,20527,0464%3.6%245,000225,0009%8.9%Diff-4.7%

JulyJulyJulyJulyNov 17

2017201620172016National248,200


Diff-3.3%

AugustAugustAugustAugust

2017201620172016Dec 17


Florida244,18598.4%

SeptemberSeptemberSeptemberSeptemberDiff-1.6%

2017201620172016

STATEWIDE18,03022,653-20%-5.8%239,900223,0008%7.1%

OctoberOctoberOctoberOctober

2017201620172016

STATEWIDE20,54320,1352%235,558220,0007%

NovemberNovemberNovemberNovember

2017201620172016

STATEWIDE19,99019,7251%240,000220,0009%

DecemberDecemberDecemberDecember

2017201620172016

STATEWIDE22,90322,3323%2.0%244,185226,0008%8.1%

12-Month Rolling Average12-Month Rolling Average

STATEWIDE000.0%000.0%

2018 Realtor Sales Volume - Existing Homes2018 Median Price - Existing Homes


20182017Chge20182017Chge

STATEWIDE16,56416,779-1%240,000220,0009%

FebruaryFebruaryFebruaryFebruary

2018201720182017

STATEWIDE18,62018,0333%246,500225,00010%


2018201720182017

STATEWIDE25,02025,921-3%-0.5%231,900231,9000%6.2%

AprilAprilAprilApril

2018201720182017

STATEWIDE24,80423,8294%253,895234,9008%

MayMayMayMay

2018201720182017

STATEWIDE28,07127,8541%255,000239,0007%

Share of Fiscal Year to Total (July through December)

Current YearPrior YearGrowthShare of Year Total

2017

2016134,146133,1520.7%0.4991831981

2015137,446126,7138.5%0.5155107812

2014126,713114,09111.1%0.526873181

2013115,506104,11410.9%0.512312605

2012104,61491,53414.3%0.514260714

201188,79781,0839.5%0.477606080

201080,46088,315-8.9%0.470944934

200987,96763,33738.9%0.539185280

200863,22957,5989.8%0.509028700

200757,74081,887-29.5%0.443331977

200679,772115,273-30.8%0.443086699

2005114,108113,9550.1%0.459067045

AVG0.4925325994272,360

2-YR AVG0.5073469896264,407

Statewide

Statewide Sales

Median Price

Permits (one-family)

Year-Over-Year Percent Change

Statewide Existing Home Sales & Starts

Data

Price

Volume

Year Over Year Median Sales Price & Volume

Foreclosure

% Decline from Peak: Median Price

Doc

Sales

DOC and Existing Home Sales: Monthly Shares Relative to Banner Year 2005

Florida Median Price Relative to Nation

Calendar Year Sales as Share of 2005 Peak Year

2009

2017

2018

Median Sales Price of Existing Homes

P-t-T-8.6%

Change in Median Sales Price for Existing Homes

National

Florida

Median Prices for Existing Single-Family Homes

Share of Fiscal Year Total (July - Jan)


StatewideMonthly AvgMonths to Clear InvFort Lauderdale MSAFt Lauderdale ChangeMiami MSAMiami ChangeStatewide Change

199392,9377,7456.512,62311,123

1994102,6708,5565.813,2915%11,2401%10%

1995121,53310,1284.912,597-5%10,172-10%1%

1996128,51510,7104.712,494-1%11,73315%6%

1997131,57710,9654.610,683-14%11,106-5%2%

1998146,62112,2184.111,1795%12,1559%12%

1999149,53212,4614.012,89815%10,685-12%7%

2000157,31213,1093.813,5915%11,71810%6%

2001167,99614,0003.613,158-3%11,491-2%6%

2002179,63114,9693.314,46510%12,3427%10%

2003203,24316,9373.015,1635%12,5712%13%

2004242,23420,186214,266-6%12,6220%11%

2005248,565

2005 Realtor Sales - Existing Homes

JanuaryJanuary%155440240.3861829026

20052004Chge338675950.4458196182

STATEWIDE15,56714,20410%5257112160.4687054208

Fort Lauderdale864877-1%10197228350.4465513466

Miami803834-4%

FebruaryFebruary

20052004

STATEWIDE17,56216,5956%

Fort Lauderdale824982-16%

Miami767854-10%

MarchMarch

20052004

STATEWIDE24,04522,7486%

Fort Lauderdale1,1751,303-10%

Miami7771,078-28%

AprilApril

20052004

STATEWIDE23,53722,7463%


Miami12151,262-4%

MayMay

20052004

STATEWIDE24,06922,4967%


Miami11891,1474%

JuneJune

20052004

STATEWIDE25,45526,112-3%


Miami13171,2932%

JulyJuly

20052004

STATEWIDE21,66923,646-8%


Miami1,0921,117-2%

AugustAugust

20052004

STATEWIDE21,31820,4914%

Fort Lauderdale9661,294-25%

Miami1,1061,159-5%

SeptemberSeptember

20052004

STATEWIDE20,36815,27233%

Fort Lauderdale9771,001-2%

Miami8728710%

OctoberOctober

20052004

STATEWIDE16,02916,844-5%

Fort Lauderdale561996-44%

Miami511975-48%

10-Month Rolling Average

STATEWIDE209,619201,1544%


Miami9,64910,590-9%

_

_

_

_

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

MiddleHighLow

LagJuneAt 8%Averaged

11,50011,50011,500Actual11,500

12,50014,95012,42013,290

13,50019,43513,41415,450

15,50025,26614,48718,417

20,50032,84515,64622,997

25,50033,70716,89725,368

33,70733,70718,24928,554

33,70733,70719,70929,041

33,70733,70721,28629,567

33,70733,70722,98930,134

33,70833,70724,82830,748

33,70833,70726,81431,410

301,244339,945218,237286,475

(High: July11 over June 11 Growth rate continued until Max fom previous forecast reached and then held)

(Middle: Current REC forecast lagged to respond to actual data for July)

(Low: LPS Data used to generate pre-slowdown monthly growth rate of 8% which is applied for each month)

Recommended Forecast (Assumes each of the three prior scenarios are equally to occur and averages them)

Homeownership Rate Below Normal...

The 2016 percentage of 64.3 was well below the long-term average for Florida. Final data for 2017 shows a further decline to 64.1%. This rate is below the lowest homeownership rate previously recorded in Florida (64.4 in 1989) during the 34-year history of the series. However, preliminary data for the first three-quarters of the 2018 calendar year is showing improvement.

14

Home Financing Still Challenging...

Data from LPS / Black Knight

Financed Sales continue to gain as a percentage of all sales, ending August 2018 with a higher share than this segment had in August 2017 (63.1% versus 54.4%). The share for REO & Short Sales has drifted steadily downward over this period; however, the share for Cash Sales has bounced around and remains elevated.

While most areas of commercial and consumer credit have significantly strengthened – residential credit for home purchases still remains somewhat difficult for consumers to access with a weighted average credit score of 727 and a LTV of 79 percent on all closed loans in October (virtually identical to June). Seventy-one percent of all home purchase lending in October had credit scores that were 700 or above. Student loans and auto debts appear to be affecting the ability to qualify for residential credit. Even so, the percent of all home sales that are financed is approaching 63 percent in Florida (July 2018), up from 60 percent in May.

15

Permits Are Still Well Below Historic Norms…

Single-Family building permit activity, an indicator of new construction, remains in positive territory, beginning with strong back-to-back growth in both the 2012 and 2013 calendar years (over 30% in each year). The final data for the 2014 calendar year revealed significantly slowing (but still positive) activity—posting only 1.6% growth over the prior year. However, annual activity for the past three calendar years ran above their individual periods a year prior; single family data was higher than the prior year by 20.3% in 2015, 11.1% in 2016, and 13.5% in 2017.

Despite the strong percentage growth rates in five of the last six calendar years, the level is still low by historic standards – about half of the long-run per capita level.

16

2017 Building Permit Activity Relative to the County’s Peak during the Period 2000-2007

In 2017, only Gadsden County surpassed its prior peak building permit activity level. However, improvements can still be seen across the state.

When the 2017 results are compared to 2016, 45 counties issued building permits for more units, 19 counties issued permits for fewer units, and 3 counties issued permits for the same number of units. 17

Existing home sales volume in the 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 calendar years exceeded the 2005 peak year. This year (2018) is on course to do the same.

Data through November 2018

While Florida’s existing home price gains have roughly tracked national gains over the last three years, the state’s median home price for single family homes has generally stayed upwardly steady as the national median peaks and dips. The state’s median price in November was 97.9% of the national median price; it exceeded the state’s prior peak (June 2006) in June 2018 for the first time and has hovered close to that level since.

150,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

290,000

June2015

Sept2015

Dec2015

March2016

June2016

Sept2016

Dec2016

Mar2017

June2017

Sept2017

Dec2017

March2018

June2018

Sept2018

Median Prices for Existing Single-Family Homes

National Florida

Florida’s Peak Price was $257,800 (June 2006); now $255,000.

18

Challenging housing costs and shifting preferences among

Millennials have caused residential rental vacancies to tighten strongly

over the last three years (2015 through 2017); price pressure

continues to build.

Zillow Rental Data: Median Rent List Price, 2-bedroom

7.2

8.5

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

1986

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1989

198

9\r1

1990

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1993

\r2

1994

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2001

2002

2002

\r3

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Rental Vacancy RatesLong-run Average Percent: US---8.3; FL---10.6

United States Florida

FL Third Quarter 2018: 8.5

$1,350

$1,694

800.0

900.0

1000.0

1100.0

1200.0

1300.0

1400.0

1500.0

1600.0

1700.0

1800.0

2011

-02

2011

-04

2011

-06

2011

-08

2011

-10

2011

-12

2012

-02

2012

-04

2012

-06

2012

-08

2012

-10

2012

-12

2013

-02

2013

-04

2013

-06

2013

-08

2013

-10

2013

-12

2014

-02

2014

-04

2014

-06

2014

-08

2014

-10

2014

-12

2015

-02

2015

-04

2015

-06

2015

-08

2015

-10

2015

-12

2016

-02

2016

-04

2016

-06

2016

-08

2016

-10

2016

-12

2017

-02

2017

-04

2017

-06

2017

-08

2017

-10

2017

-12

2018

-02

2018

-04

2018

-06

2018

-08

2018

-10

FLORIDA--MEDIAN RENT LIST PRICE FOR 2-BEDROOM


Florida relative to

United States


Florida relative to

United States

2005 728 809 111% 803 863 107%2006 763 872 114% 844 932 110%2007 789 925 117% 878 991 113%2008 824 947 115% 919 1,015 110%2009 842 952 113% 938 1,024 109%2010 855 947 111% 954 1,017 107%2011 871 949 109% 973 1,027 106%2012 884 954 108% 990 1,037 105%2013 905 972 107% 1,016 1,050 103%2014 934 1,003 107% 1,047 1,087 104%2015 959 1,046 109% 1,077 1,129 105%2016 981 1,086 111% 1,105 1,161 105%2017 1,012 1,128 111% 1,138 1,203 106%

Median Gross Rent Average Gross Rent

Florida and U.S. Median Gross Rent(in Current Dollars)

Year

U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year, 2005-2016.

19

Consumer Perceptions Are High

Nationally, the sentiment reading for December 2018 (98.3) is well above the index average since inception (86.1), but well below the highest recorded monthly level on record—112.0 in January 2000.

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

12019

78-0

1-01

1978

-09-

0119

79-0

5-01

1980

-01-

0119

80-0

9-01

1981

-05-

0119

82-0

1-01

1982

-09-

0119

83-0

5-01

1984

-01-

0119

84-0

9-01

1985

-05-

0119

86-0

1-01

1986

-09-

0119

87-0

5-01

1988

-01-

0119

88-0

9-01

1989

-05-

0119

90-0

1-01

1990

-09-

0119

91-0

5-01

1992

-01-

0119

92-0

9-01

1993

-05-

0119

94-0

1-01

1994

-09-

0119

95-0

5-01

1996

-01-

0119

96-0

9-01

1997

-05-

0119

98-0

1-01

1998

-09-

0119

99-0

5-01

2000

-01-

0120

00-0

9-01

2001

-05-

0120

02-0

1-01

2002

-09-

0120

03-0

5-01

2004

-01-

0120

04-0

9-01

2005

-05-

0120

06-0

1-01

2006

-09-

0120

07-0

5-01

2008

-01-

0120

08-0

9-01

2009

-05-

0120

10-0

1-01

2010

-09-

0120

11-0

5-01

2012

-01-

0120

12-0

9-01

2013

-05-

0120

14-0

1-01

2014

-09-

0120

15-0

5-01

2016

-01-

0120

16-0

9-01

2017

-05-

0120

18-0

1-01

2018

-09-

01

University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (UMSCENT)

20

Florida-Based Downside Risk The most recent sales tax forecast relies heavily on strong tourism growth. It

assumes no events that have significant repercussions affecting tourism occur during the forecast window.• Currently, tourism-related revenue losses pose the greatest potential risk to the economic

outlook. • Previous economic studies of disease outbreaks and natural or manmade disasters have

shown that tourism demand is very sensitive to such events.• A strong and strengthening dollar tends to have a chilling effect on international travel. Since

mid-April, the broad dollar has appreciated nearly 9 percent and is expected to remain elevated in the near-term forecast.

The Legislative Office of Economic and Demographic Research has updated and refined an empirical analysis of the various sources of the state’s sales tax collections. In FY 2016-17, sales tax collections provided nearly $23.0 billion dollars or 76.8% of Florida’s total General Revenue collections. Of this amount, an estimated 12.9% (nearly $2.97 billion) was attributable to purchases made by tourists.

21

21

Economy Largely Recovered...Florida growth rates are generally returning to more typical levels and continue to show progress. The drags—particularly construction—are more persistent than past events, but the strength in tourism is compensating for this. In the various forecasts, normalcy was largely achieved by the end of FY 2016-17. Overall...

The national economy is back to normal on nearly all measures.

By the close of the 2017-18 fiscal year, most measures of the Florida economy had returned to or surpassed their prior peaks. All personal income metrics, over one-half of the employment measures, and the total tourism

and domestic visitor counts had exceeded their prior peaks. Other measures were posting solid year-over-year improvements, even if they were not yet back

to peak performance levels. Private nonresidential construction expenditures first passed their prior peak in FY 2016-17, but

none of the key residential construction measures pass their prior peaks until FY 2026-27, a significant slowdown from the forecast adopted in the Summer.

Fall 2018 Update: little change from Summer Conferences, with some slowing of economic growth by 2020. This is largely due to national events: fading stimulus from federal tax cuts and spending increases, accumulating impact from already enacted tariffs, and more restrictive federal reserve policy.

22

General Revenue Forecast

Revenue collections ran above monthly estimates by a combined $365.2 million since the last conference in August. Focusing on the year-to-date gains to the forecast, anticipated revenues were revised upward despite the slightly weaker near-term National and Florida Economic Forecasts. While this is the largest combined increase since April 2006, during the peak of the housing boom, the Conference recognized that there is an elevated level of risk due to the mature stage of the current economic expansion.

LR Growth: Averages 6%Forecast Growth: Averages 3.5%

The past had tax increases associated with key revenue sources and stronger population growth.

23

Fiscal YearAugust

2018December

2018 Forecast Difference Incremental

Growth Growth2005-06 27074.8 27074.8 0 8.4%2006-07 26404.1 26404.1 0 -670.7 -2.5%2007-08 24112.1 24112.1 0 -2292.0 -8.7%2008-09 21025.6 21025.6 0.0 -3086.5 -12.8%2009-10 21523.1 21523.1 0.0 497.5 2.4%2010-11 22551.6 22551.6 0.0 1028.5 4.8%2011-12 23618.8 23618.8 0.0 1067.2 4.7%2012-13 25314.6 25314.6 0.0 1695.8 7.2%2013-14 26198.0 26198.0 0.0 883.4 3.5%2014-15 27681.1 27485.9 (195.2) 1287.9 5.7%2015-16 28325.4 28325.4 0.0 644.3 2.3%2016-17 29594.5 29,594.5 0.0 1269.1 4.5%2017-18 31218.2 31,218.2 0.0 1623.7 5.5%2018-19 32,243.8 32,705.3 461.5 1,487.1 4.8%2019-20 33,334.7 33,715.2 380.5 1,009.9 3.1%2020-21 34,544.2 34,976.1 431.9 1,260.9 3.7%2021-22 35,827.4 36,209.6 382.2 1,233.5 3.5%2022-23 37,086.9 37,418.0 331.1 1,208.4 3.3%2023-24 38,349.1 38,559.5 210.4 1,141.5 3.1%

US Retail Sales & Florida

Taxable Sales

The change over the same month in the prior year in the national S&P Retail Select Industry Index has been positive since the beginning of the 2018 calendar year. Florida’s taxable sales exhibit an overall pattern similar to the national index; however, Florida began to deviate markedly from the national index in February 2014.

In addition, Florida’s in-state volatility over the prior year was much greater for most of the 2016 and 2017 calendar years; however, both September and October of 2017 were affected by Hurricane Irma. Since then, the data has shown less volatility. October 2018 is an exception as it looks back to last year’s Hurricane affected low point and shows robust growth, year over year. 24

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%7/

1/20

10

10/1

/201

0

1/1/

2011

4/1/

2011

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2011

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/201

1

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4/1/

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/201

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1/1/

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2014

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/201

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2015

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4/1/

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2018

7/1/

2018

10/1

/201

8*

US Retail Sales & Florida Taxable Sales (same month / prior year)

Florida Retail Sales (left) US Retail Sales (right)

Florida:�An Economic OverviewShifting in Key Economic VariablesEconomy Has Continued Growth...FL Personal Income Growth Is Strong, Driven in Part by Robust Population Growth...Wage Gap Increased Slightly in 2017…Average Annual Wage by County…Current Employment Conditions Strong…But, Florida’s Participation Rate Low…Across the State, Employment Picture Is Improving, but Polarized…Population Growth Slowing Slightly...Florida’s Population Growth…Baby Boomers in Florida Today...Population Growth by Age Group…Florida Housing is Generally Improving...�Homeownership Rate Below Normal...Home Financing Still Challenging...Permits Are Still Well Below Historic Norms…2017 Building Permit Activity Relative to the County’s Peak during the Period 2000-2007Existing home sales volume in the 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 calendar years exceeded the 2005 peak year. This year (2018) is on course to do the same. Slide Number 20Consumer Perceptions Are HighFlorida-Based Downside RiskEconomy Largely Recovered...General Revenue ForecastUS Retail Sales & Florida Taxable Sales

Documents

Floridaedr.state.fl.us/Content/presentations/economic/Fl...Economy Has Continued Growth... In the latest revised data for State Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Florida had real growth