The The 9th Science and Technology Foresight in Japan 9th Science and Technology Foresight in Japan The The 9th Science and Technology Foresight in Japan 9th Science and Technology Foresight in Japan

-- Contribution Contribution of Science of Science andand-- Contribution Contribution of Science of Science andandTechnology Technology to Future Society to Future Society -Technology Technology to Future Society to Future Society -

March 8, 2011March 8, 2011The 4th International Conference on Foresight

Kumi OkuwadaDirector, Science and Technology Foresight Center

National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, Japan1

History of National Foresight in Japan

1970

1971 The 1st Technology Foresight

1977 The 2nd Technology Foresight

Development of S&T policy

• Catch up process Delphi

Delphi

1970-

1982 The 3rd Technology Foresight

1987 The 4th Technology Foresight

• Bottom-up decision making• Consensus among sectors

Delphi

Delphi

• Transition phase• Moderate link between S&T policy and foresight

1990s

gy g

1992 The 5th Technology Foresight1995S&T Basic Law Delphi

Delphi

• Strong prioritization

1997 The 6th Technology Foresight1996-2000

The 1st S&T Basic Plan

2001-2005

Delphi

Strong prioritization• Top down decision making• Link between S&T policy and foresight

2000 2001 The 7th Technology Foresight

2005 The 8th S&T ForesightM lti th d

Delphi

2001 2005The 2nd S&T Basic Plan

2006-2010 Multi-methodGlobal changes

Change of government

2006 2010The 3rd S&T Basic Plan

Innovation 25

2010 The 9th S&T Foresight

Mission-oriented & Interdisciplinary

2010 Integration with innovation policy

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2010 The 9th S&T Foresight

Change in foresight activities in Japan

1970s～’90 s 2000s 2010 future ?

The 9th S&T Foresight

Finding important “elements”in S&Ts

1970s～ 90 s ・・・・・ 2000s ・・・・・ 2010 ・・・・・ future ?

in S&Ts→ For prioritization in “fields”

→ For “innovation policy”A t bilit→ Accountability

for investment for S&Ts?Objective/Meaning

Start with delphi survey→ Improvements in delphi

→ Adding comprehensive approaches→ Depiction for desirable society

→ Integrated message for innovationl /O

g g

3

Development/Outputs

On the basis of rich experiments in foresight

Realization rate of past Delphi surveys conduced between 1971‐1992

0 20 40 60 80 100

１st survey (1971)

（％）

y ( )

2nd survey (1977)

3rd survey (1982)

Around 70% of the topics in past Delphi surveys are realized at full or partially.

4th survey (1987)

5th survey (1992) realized at fullRatio of Topics with accelerated realization

0 50 100ration of topic numbers (%)

Preventive reasons0 50 100

Energy

ration of topic numbers (%)partially realized

0 50 100

Energy

Environment

Environment

Life science

Life science

Medical care

scienceMedical

care

realized topics that were predicted to realize af ter 2010unrealized topics that were predicted to

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technical problems Social problems

cost problems alternatives emerged

insuf f icient needs

unrealized topics that were predicted to realize af ter 2010topics that were predicted to realized until 2009

*"realized " means "realized at full" and "realized partially".

The 9th S&T Foresight

Why new approaches?Foresight

S&T are expected to give solutions for social issues including；

Big global issues ; Climate change, Population explosion, etc.Japan’s peculiar issues ; Highest speed for aging society, etc.

Understanding that S&T serves as a foundation for future society, S&T that have potential to make innovation happen and their promotion policy should be discussedpromotion policy should be discussed.

Mission-oriented foresight was implemented for the first time in Japan, by breaking away from established seeds-oriented approach, with borderless discussion.

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oriented approach, with borderless discussion.Integration of results gave clear-cut and comprehensive messages.

Total Survey Design• Mission‐oriented approach: grand challenges and solutions 

for them

• Interdisciplinary/diversified discussion

• Integration of study results

Grand Challenges How do we have to integrate our knowledgeGrand ChallengesHypotheses in NISTEP

Grand Challengesin S&T policy

Attractive Japan in high-level of S&T

Sustainable Growth by Green Innovation

How do we have to integrate our knowledge to find solutions for the grand challenges ?

Challenge

gin S&T policy

Attractive Japan in High-level of S&T

Sustainable Growth by Green Innovation

Japan as Success-model in Healthy Aging

Higher Security for Life

Challenge

Challenge

Challenge

Japan as Success-model in Healthy Aging

Higher Security for Life

Scenario writing

Delphi Survey

To find solutions

Challenge Solution

Integration of knowledge

R&D R&DSocial

system

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Scenario writing

Regional innovation

for grand challenges R&D Diplomacy

The 9th Science and Technology Foresight

-- Contribution Contribution of Science and Technology of Science and Technology to to Future Society Future Society --

The 9th Delphi SurveyNISTEP REPORT No.140 Three reportsThree reports

A New type of delphi survey・ to find solutions・ by exclusion of existing

t f S&T fi ld

Future Scenarios Opened up by Science and

2010.6  open2010.6  open

concept of S&T fields・ by interdisciplinary

discussions ・ Participation

3000 t

up by Science and Technology

NISTEP REPORT No.141

Th diff t hover 3000 experts Three different approaches on describing and imaging better life in future and showing frames of S&Ts to

li it

Capability of Local Regions for Green Innovation

NISTEP REPORT No 142realize it NISTEP REPORT No.142

Discussion about ways for regional sustainable development

S&Total attendee ＞ 3200

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and S&Ts to support themTotal attendee ＞ 3200Period : 2008 - 09 FYs

More than foreseeing the progress of individual S&T elements study whether the overall outcomes from S&Tselements, study whether the overall outcomes from S&Tscan bring innovation to society

Major results in 3 reportsMajor results in 3 reports

● Vision of future society resulting from progress in science and● Vision of future society resulting from progress in science and technology

● Path to achieve future vision● Path to achieve future vision

● Science and technologies which are keys to resolving global issues and national issues

● Average opinions of expert groups, as seen in Delphi results

● Future vision desired by region and youth● Future vision desired by region and youth

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The 9th Delphi Survey

Coupling and mixing two types of interdisciplinary panelsthat extend beyond existing fields

Discussion by 4 Targets 12 Interdisciplinary Panels

Cross Field Disc ssion of Science and Technology

＋

Cross-Field Discussion of Science and Technology

Cross-field discussion of science and technology

ns

No.1

Integrated discussion by multidisciplinary groups

No.2 No.12・・・・・

&T

mis

sion

Reassurance

Safetydisc

ussi

on

nclu

ding

an

ities

and

nc

es

ssio

n o

f S& Safety

Int’l cooperation

I t’ldisc

iplin

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mem

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iner

ts in

hum

aso

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9

Dis

cus

Int’l competitivenessIn

terd

by

exp e

: topic(totally 832)

To eliminate the concept of fieldsPanel name ： Fields NumberView point of each : Given Panel members’ decisionDuplications in topics among panels :Duplications in topics among panels :

Readjust Attention as more important issuesCovering in discussions : Avoiding from lack Finding key issues

Panel Viewpoint

No.1 Utilization of electronics, communication, and nanotechnology in a ubiquitous society.

N 2 I f ti t h l i l di di d t tNo.2 Information technology including media and contents. No.3 Biotechnology and nanotechnology to contribute to humankind.

No.4 Medical technology to contribute to healthy lifestyles of the nation’s people using IT, etc.

No 5Understanding of dynamics of space, earth, and life, and science and technology which expand the region of human

Most important question :No.5 science and technology which expand the region of human

activityNo.6 Promotion of diverse energy technology innovations. No.7 Necessary resources, including water, food, minerals.

No.8 Technologies for protecting environment and forming sustainable society

What are “keys for solutionfor global/national problems” ?

sustainable society

No.9 Fundamental technologies, including substances, materials, nanosystems, processing, measurement, etc.

No.10 Manufacturing technologies which totally support development of industry, society, and science and technologyStrengthening of management led/required by advancement ofNo.11 Strengthening of management led/required by advancement of science and technology.

No.12 Infrastructure technologies supporting daily life base and industrial base.

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ScenarioScenario• Trans‐disciplinary groups by theme prepared scenarios mainly focusing on 

technological and social conditions to solve issues we are facing and make thetechnological and social conditions to solve issues we are facing and make the future better place.

Picture of our life thirty years from now

Keys to the desirable future- R&D themes to be tackled＋years from now - R&D themes to be tackled- Human resources development- Cooperation/integration among fields/sectors- Reformation of social systems- Policy collaboration- Policy collaboration- Creation of new industry/business/employment- Public acceptance- International standpoint

• Stories of future society derived from Delphi

Analysis basedDelphi topics

Future stories

Analysis based on three studies

• Young ICT experts envisioned services using ICT in our life in the future.

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Promotion of good health in aging society with fewer children

Scenario example: Bigger challenges than their own speciality

Promotion of good health in aging society with fewer children

Leader: Dr. Norihiro KATO, Research Institute, International Medical Center of Japan

Challenges:

Personalized physical and mental healthcare based on lifelong health records.

Future society in 2040:Future society in 2040:

Dietary education will be promoted to prevent three major diseases and personalized management of eating habit will be offered.

Tailored preventive health care will be provided based on electronic health recordshealth records.

Keys to the desirable future:

To develop and promote translational epidemiology

To identify environmental factors for onset; To develop

Traditional epidemiology research

In vivo biological In vitro experimental

Examining effects of environmental exposure, using artificial organs/tissues

To identify environmental factors for onset; To develop healthy food; To prevent deterioration of diseases

To strengthen linkage between medical treatment and nursing care; To improve QOL of those who require nursing care ; To improve mental health; To foster the sense of self-

In vivo biological information

In vitro experimental information

Samples (blood serum, blood plasma, etc.)

biomarker test

Examination of regenerative medical techniques

care ; To improve mental health; To foster the sense of selfhelp effort for their own health

To promote cooperation with experts in other disciplines such as physics, chemistry, architectonics, urban engineering, behavior science, and humanities

genome information

Translational epidemiology research

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,

To develop ethical guidelines for operation of electronic health record system; To review medical systems in terms of medical economy.

Integration for total messages

New industries

Recommendationsto accelerate innovation

New industries and services for desirable future of each region

ns

Cross-field discussion of science and technology

No.1

Integrated discussion by multidisciplinary groups

No.2 No.12・・・・・

Interdisciplinary Delphi

Picture of future society

ssio

n of

S&

T m

issi

on

Reassurance

Safety

Int’l cooperation

I t’ldisc

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disc

ussi

on

mem

bers

incl

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g

erts

in h

uman

ities

and

so

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s

Keys to desirable future

Dis

cu Int’l competitivenessIn

terd

by

exp e

S&T for solving global/internal issues Scenarios written by

expert groupsp g p

Mapping

Ideas from younger generation13

Depiction of better life around 2025 Images derived from delphi topics which are predicted around 2025

Various diagnostic technologies and systems are incorporated in daily life and health maintenance by individuals has started to prevail.

A society has begun to respond to various disasters caused by changes in the environment.

Individuals can use various types of energy selectively or comprehensivelyenergy selectively or comprehensively based on their own value judgment and feel that they are contributing to the prevention of global warming and environmental preservation.

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environmental preservation.

Areas related to energy, resource and environment Areas related to health and medical care

Key S&T issues for solving global/internal problemsgy,

Energy [No.1]Industrial bio-nanotechnology related to energy and environment [No.3]Space and ocean management technology (including

Applied bio-nanotechnology [No.3]Healing (exegenous factor, metabolic disease, and psychiatric disease) [No.3]Medical treatment aiming at safety and security [No 4]Space and ocean management technology (including

observations) [No.5]Nuclear energy [No.6]

Renewable energy [No.6]

Fossil energy [No 6]

Medical treatment aiming at safety and security [No.4]

Creation of new medical technology [No.4]

Development of predictive and preventive medicine [No.4]

Other areas (ICT, base technologies, management, etc.)Fossil energy [No.6]

Efficient power storage system [No.6]

Energy saving [No.6]

Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries resources [No.7]

Other areas (ICT, base technologies, management, etc.)

Socialization of information [No.2]Cloud computing [No.2]New principle for information and communication [No.2]g , y, [ ]

Water resources [No.7]

Environment, recyclable resources, recycling, LCA [No.7]Hydrocarbon resources, mineral resources, and CCS [No 7]

Space technologies [No.5]Base materials for Nano-technology [No.9]Output (device, systemization and applied technology) [No.9]Gl b li ti l ddi d k t ti [N 10][No.7]

Life style and environment [No.8]Evaluation of and countermeasures to global warming [No.8]Technology for urban waste minimization / material

Globalization, value-adding and market creation [No.10]Unpopularlity of S&E, human resource problem, the declining birth rate and aging population [No.10]Management to prevent the decrease of competitiveness in the international market [No.11]o ogy o u ba a a o / a a

circulation for environmental conservation / resource- and energy- saving products [No.8]Pollution prevention for atmosphere, water and soil / circulative use technology for water resources [No.8]E d i t [N 10]

in the international market [No.11]Service management, management in the education and research field, environment business management, governmental institution management [No.11]Framework for facilitation of social innovation [No.11]

Energy, resources and environment [No.10] Management of humans, creation, management, and transfer of knowledge, education [No.11]Strategy for maintenance of infrastructures [No.12][Number] : The panel that gives priority to the area.

: Higher score than the others

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Semantic Mapping of Delphi topics and group scenariosX1

Shift to low carbon

*Black codes: Delphi survey categories (code is the subcommittee number and category code letters)

of Delphi topics and group scenarios

X3

Shift to low carbon

*Red codes: Group scenario (letters and numbers are IDs given for convenience)

ICT

X12X11

X8X7 X6

X5

X2

Water resources

i i & i f

Health & medical

X5

Resources

Cities & infrastructure

Nano bio

Categories which are keys to resolving global and national issues

Especially highly focused on categories (4 categories)

X10Culture & lifestyle

Highly focused on categories (8 categories)

Top 1/3 focused on categories (24 categories)

No symbol: Other categories (lower 2/3) (58 categories)

Fields where science and technology can contribute

Scenario themes for which science and technology are expected to make especially large contributions

X9 Food & production support

especially large contributions

Green-related innovation and life-related innovation should be promoted with

16X4

innovation should be promoted with consideration of ICT utilization, infrastructural development and our life styles.

Requirements to promote accelerated achievement of “future living scene”for Green innovation

• International development is a key. Using environmental‐friendly technologies as strength, promoting strategic international development of businesses. L d hi i di ti d ti i l b l th b ti i lLeadership in coordination and cooperation in global earth observation is also important.

• Broad perspective and international sense enabling promotion of integration Broad perspective and international sense enabling promotion of integration and systemization are qualities needed by people involved in green innovation. 

• Promoting renewable energy and other energy related technologies, building systems which more efficiently use resources and energy, more effectively utilize and observe the oceans, etc.

ICT h l i h b i i i f• ICT technologies as the basis, promoting various aspects of industry/academia/government cooperation and inter‐industry cooperation, and building a promotion structure which combines the natural sciences and social sciences.

• The government should create policies such as an environmental support system provide support for international standardizations and enhancesystem, provide support for international standardizations, and enhance environmental education to foster the people’s environmental awareness and change in lifestyles.  17

Requirements to promote accelerated achievement of “future living scene”for Life innovation

• Providing individualized health management and medical care (preventative medicine, optimal health management and medical care etc).

• Promoting overall progress in medical technologies, promote preventative medicine and implement it widely, develop the medical system, and progress in analysis technologies. There are great expectations that universities willin analysis technologies. There are great expectations that universities will contribute to achieving these in society.

• Actively utilizing human resources from many fields including IT and communications and humanities and social sciences. Create a mechanism for human resources from varied fields to learn early on about specialized knowledge of preventative medicine, or for medical experts to learn g p , pspecialized knowledge of other fields.

• The government will study preparation of related laws to enable the people to benefit from progress in medical technology.

• Seeking possibilities for regional development and new business, and promote R&D and domestic system development in forms which incorporatepromote R&D and domestic system development in forms which incorporate possibilities for international development towards the Asia region, which will be a future huge market. 18

Closing RemarksClosing Remarks

• Objective of foresight activity and its methodology have been• Objective of foresight activity and its methodology have been largely changed after 2000 in Japan.

• The 9th S&T Foresight in Japan was implemented under the• The 9th S&T Foresight in Japan was implemented under the principle of “ Contribution of Science and Technology to Future Society ”.

• Many experts are recently paying attentions to S&T issues related to “green innovation” and “life innovation” for solving l b l/i t l blglobal/internal problems. 

• Two innovations above should be promoted with consideration of ICT utilization infrastructural development and our life stylesof ICT utilization, infrastructural development and our life styles.

References: NISTEP Report No.140,141,142

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References: NISTEP Report No.140,141,142Summary Report : NISTEP Report No.145