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Flood Conference – ICLR, May 6-8, 2008, Toronto, Canada Vulnerability Assessment to Floods at the Local Level Dr.-Ing. Jörn Birkmann , Krings, S. and Renaud, F. " Advancing Knowledge for Human Security and Development“ United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS
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"Advancing Knowledge for Human Security and Development“
United Nations UniversityInstitute for Environment and
Human Security
(UNU-EHS)
Flood Conference – ICLR, May 6-8, 2008, Toronto, Canada
Vulnerability Assessment to Floods at the Local Level
Dr.-Ing. Jörn Birkmann, Krings, S. and Renaud, F.
Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS
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Content
1. Definition of Vulnerability
2. Conceptual Framework
3. Assessment Process
- Questionnaire
4. Selected Results
5. Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability
6. Conclusions
Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS
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Vulnerability Definitions
“... a human condition or process resulting from physical,
social, economic, and environmental factors which determine
the likelihood and scale of damage from the impact of a given
hazard“
(UNDP, 2004)
“... the likelihood of injury, death, loss, disruption of livelihood
or other harm in an extreme event, and/or unusual difficulties
in recovering from such effects“
(Wisner, 2002)
Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS
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Vulnerability to Floods in Germany
Exposure Coping Capacity
Vulnerability
Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS
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The BBC-Framework
Source: Bogardi/Birkmann (2004) and Cardona (1999/2001)
Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS
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Sub-National Vulnerability Index
34 demographic variablese.g. age, education, income
Map shows general vulnerability
Data: Federal statistical office 2007, BKG 2007
Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS
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Methodology & Focus
Local Level
Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS
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Overview Methodology HH Survey
METHOD- Household Survey- Standardized interview (closed & open questions)- Quantitative assessment
GOAL - generation of new indicators:a) Exposure and knowledgeb) Susceptibilityc) Coping Capacity
SAMPLE- 500 HH per city (selection through city)- Consideration of exposure (HQ 100, HQ 500) &- Socio-economic differences
METHOD- Household Survey- Standardized interview (closed & open questions)- Quantitative assessment
GOAL - generation of new indicators:a) Exposure and knowledgeb) Susceptibilityc) Coping Capacity
SAMPLE- 500 HH per city (selection through city)- Consideration of exposure (HQ 100, HQ 500) &- Socio-economic differences
Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS
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Case Study Selection in Cologne
[jb1]
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Selected Results
Cologne
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Risk Perception: Natural Hazards
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
in %
Landslides
Earthquakes
Heatwaves
Storm
Heavy Rain
Floods
Ha
zard
typ
e
Risk Perception Cologne 2007
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
in %
Landslides
Earthquakes
Heatwaves
Storm
Heavy Rain
Floods
Ha
zard
typ
e
Risk Perception Cologne 2007
Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS
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Do you know whether you livein a flood prone area?
Did you get or have you gathered information regarding floods?
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Exposure and Flood Information
NO, I did not get any information, nor I gathered information about flooding
YES, I requested information about floods when I bought/rented house/flat
YES, I got information about flooding when I settled in the area
Exposure
No
an
swe
r re
ga
rdin
g
exp
osu
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I am
no
t living
in
floo
d p
ron
e
are
a
I am
living
in
a flo
od
pro
ne
a
rea
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Coping Capacity
Possibility to move items and values of the groundfloor to the first or second floor
- Survey Cologne 2007 -
26,9
71,1
2
Yes
No
Don't know
Possibility to move items and values of the groundfloor to the first or second floor
- Survey Cologne 2007 -
26,9
71,1
2
Yes
No
Don't know
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Susceptibility & Coping Capacity
Ability of 1 Per-HH to evacuate without external help
12,8
83,5
Yes
No
Don't know
no answer
Ability of 1 Per-HH to evacuate without external help
12,8
83,5
Yes
No
Don't know
no answer
Would you be able to evacuate without external help?
Ability of more Per-HH to evacuate without external help
8,2
86,1
Yes
No
Don't know
no answer
Ability of more Per-HH to evacuate without external help
8,2
86,1
Yes
No
Don't know
no answer
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Where would you go?
Age groups 0-29 30-59 60-79 80-99
Friends 61,4 45,07 27,16 20,83
Relatives 31,5 43,56 45,67 66,66
Hotel / Pension 1,75 3,03 10,49 8,33
City or Emergency Accommodation
1,75 4,92 7,40 -
Other - 1,51 6,17 -
Don‘t know 3,5 0,75 1,85 4,16
No answer - 1,13 1,23 -
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Coping Capacity: Evacuation Capability
28
42
76
93
35
47
76
93
29
43
70
91
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100% of HH evacuated
HH with childern (age0,1-15,9 years)
HH-Members solely inworking age (16 - 65
years)
HH with elderly orpensionaries
HH Type
Evacuation Capability of different HH-Types
in 10 Minutes
in 15 Minutes
in 30 Minutes
in 60 Minutes28
42
76
93
35
47
76
93
29
43
70
91
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100% of HH evacuated
HH with childern (age0,1-15,9 years)
HH-Members solely inworking age (16 - 65
years)
HH with elderly orpensionaries
HH Type
Evacuation Capability of different HH-Types
in 10 Minutes
in 15 Minutes
in 30 Minutes
in 60 Minutes
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Financial Coping Capacity
correlation coefficient: 0,529
Income classes: 1) under 500€, 2) 500 to 1000€, 3) 1000 to 1500€, …(…), 13) 6000 € and more
% of HH with an elementary risk insurance
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…
Vulnerability Hotspots in Cologne
Not the city centre, but the northern and southern parts are highly vulnerable.
Paticularly areas around Rodenkirchen and Weiss – high concentraton of elderly and low flood protection
Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS
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VA Critical Infrastructures
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“Critical infrastructures consist of those physical and information technology facilities, networks, services and assets which, if disrupted or destroyed, would have a serious impact on the health, safety, security or economic well-being of citizens (…).
Critical infrastructures extend across many sectors of the economy, including banking and finance, transport and distribution, energy, utilities, health, food supply and communications, as well as key government services.”
EC 2004
Definition
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VA Critical Infrastructure: Multi-Layer
Societydepends on
Critical Infrastructures
Critical Infrastructure Sector
Critical Infrastructure Sector
Critical Infrastructure Sector… …
… …
Infrastructure InfrastructureInfrastructure Infrastructure Infrastructure
… … … …
Component Component ComponentComponentComponent
Illustration: Susanne Krings, UNU-EHS following the German Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK), Source: BBK, Newsletter 372006
……
……
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CologneExposure of Critical InfrastructuresExample: Electricity supply system
Powerplant
Transfomer station
High voltage power line
Rhine
HQ 100
HQ 500
Districts
Source: UNU-EHS; Data source: BKG (Basis DLM) and Cologne City Administration
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data source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/de/e/ed/Stromversorgung.png
Network and Interdependencies
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Source: Verband Schweizerischer Elektrizitätsunternehmen (2008): Netzebenen. http://www.poweron.ch/de/stromnetz/netzebenen_content---1-1224.html (25.2.2008)
Different Designs of Electricity Systems
The first design is highly vulnerable, as failuresare likely to affect a large number households.
The second design is less vulnerable as in case of a failure the area suffering a blackout is likely to be very small.
Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS
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Ongoing Research: Objects & Structure
Societydepends on
Critical Infrastructures
Critical Infrastructure Sector
Critical Infrastructure Sector
Critical Infrastructure Sector… …
… …
Infrastructure InfrastructureInfrastructure Infrastructure Infrastructure
… … … …
Component Component ComponentComponentComponent
……
……
Operationalisation and aggregation of data collected on the different levels of citical
infrastructures as well as the finalisation of the methodology are currently being worked on at UNU-EHS
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1. Vulnerability assessment at the local level can include more easily new methods and additional data collection.
2. Measuring susceptibility and coping capacity is crucial.
3. The case study of Cologne shows that people who are saying we live in a flood prone area have been less active in gathering flood information data when they choose their place of living.
4. Human vulnerability implies other hot-spots than financial vulnerability (city centre versus living areas).
5. VA of critical infrastructure is a key subject, but data gathering is a challenge.
Conclusion
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More Information: www.ehs.unu.edu
Thank You for Your Attention!
