© 2004 ACNielsen 1 Introductie tot AC Nielsen 2de Lic Toegepaste Economische Wetenschappen A.O. Meertalige bedrijfscommunicatie 12 Oktober 2004 27 Oktober

© 2004 ACNielsen 1

Introductie tot AC Nielsen

2de Lic Toegepaste Economische Wetenschappen

A.O. Meertalige bedrijfscommunicatie

12 Oktober 2004

27 Oktober 2004

© 2004 ACNielsen 2

AGENDAAGENDA

> What does AC Nielsen Marketing Research stand for ?

> Retailing in Belgium and Europe

> Structure of AC Nielsen information

> Business Case

© 2004 ACNielsen 3

Hoe heet de Amerikaanse zakenman die het presteerde om tijdens de Grote Depressie een Food & Drug Index op te bouwen?

© 2004 ACNielsen 4

A.C. Nielsen Company WorldwideA.C. Nielsen Company Worldwide

> Founded in 1923 by Arthur Charles Nielsen in Chicago

> Currently active in more than 100 countries

> Employs 20.000 full time persons

>Turnover: 1,75 billion euro

> N°1 marketing research company in the world

> Part of VNU since beginning of 2001

© 2004 ACNielsen 5

VNU employs some 38,000 people worldwide, and is active in more than 100 countries. Around half of our EUR 3.9 billion in total revenues is generated in North America.

© 2004 ACNielsen 6

The fundamental problem

Brand Manufacturers

Supply ChainRetailers

Performanceof my

productsversus

market &competitors?

© 2004 ACNielsen 7

MARKET SIZE? SHARES? DISTRIBUTION? PRICE?

??

MARKET DYNAMICSMARKET DYNAMICS

Retailers and manufacturers need information and insight into four key areas

© 2004 ACNielsen 8

??

KEY COMPETITORSKEY COMPETITORS

What’s My Competition Doing? Are They Winning?How Can I Succeed Versus My Competitors?

MARKET DYNAMICSMARKET DYNAMICS


© 2004 ACNielsen 9

KEY COMPETITORSKEY COMPETITORSMARKET DYNAMICSMARKET DYNAMICS

CONSUMERCONSUMERDYNAMICSDYNAMICS

WHO? WHAT? WHY? WHEN? WHERE?


© 2004 ACNielsen 10

EXTERNAL INFLUENCESEXTERNAL INFLUENCESEXTERNAL INFLUENCESEXTERNAL INFLUENCES


KEY COMPETITORSKEY COMPETITORSMARKET DYNAMICSMARKET DYNAMICS

CONSUMERCONSUMERDYNAMICSDYNAMICS•Advertising

•Coupons

•Promotions


TOOLS

PEOPLE

EXPERTISE

Our Mission: we strongly believe that our package of client service expertise, tools and high quality data can play a significant part in helping our clients achieve its strategic priorities and associated business objectives.


> ACNielsen Collects Data:

> Of more than 500 product categories

> In over 150,000 retail outlets (±50.000 in Europe)

> In over 80 countries

> On six continents

> Through Scanning and Auditing

Tracking What Happens at the Retailer Point of Sale . . .

Retail Measurement


TOTAL FROMAGES PATES FRAICHESCAM P8 2003

53%

12%

8%

8%

5%

3%

3%3%

2%

2%

1%

GERMANY

FRANCE

ITALY

GREAT BRITAIN

SPAIN

BELGIUM

NETHERLANDS

AUSTRIA

SWEDEN

DENMARK

NORWAY

An output example of Retailer Point of Sales Data: Cream Cheese in Europe

167 Millions KG% Evol:+4%


In welk land is roomkaas het goedkoopst?


But for a More Complete Picture . . .

RetailRetailMeasurementMeasurement

•Volumetrics by Retailer

•Market Share

•Price

•Causal Factors


Link Store Information to . . . The Consumer Behind the Purchase

RetailRetailMeasurementMeasurement

Consumer Panel

- Who buys what?

- Where they shop?

- How often they shop?

•Volumetrics by Retailer

•Market Share

•Price

•Causal Factors


Over 128,000 Households Worldwide

Country Households Service Type

U. S. 52,000 HomescanU.K. 10,450 HomescanFrance 8,000 HomescanCanada 9,600 HomescanGermany 9,000 HomescanSouth Africa 4,000 HomescanAustralia 5,000 HomescanNew Zealand 1,500 HomescanItaly 6,000 HomescanMexico 4,000 HomepanelColombia 3,000 HomepanelSpain 2,500 HomepanelFinland 1,600 HomepanelGreece 1,250 HomepanelIsrael 2,000 HomepanelSwitzerland 3,750 Homescan

Consumer Panel


Hoeveel keer koopt een gemiddeld Frans gezin een pakje roomkaas aan?


ACHETEUR HMSM

A.C. Nielsen Company

PENETRATION (ENS)

04/06/01 - 02/06/02 03/06/02 - 01/06/03

99.8 99.799.1 98.7

67.7 67.8

FLS

FROMAGE

PATES FRAICHES

NB OCCASIONS PAR ACHETEUR (ENS)

04/06/01 - 02/06/02 03/06/02 - 01/06/03

5857

28 28

6 6

SD / OCCASIONS (ENS)

04/06/01 - 02/06/02 03/06/02 - 01/06/03

13.2

13.8

4.0 4.1

1.9 2.0

An example: Consumer spending data in France


Advanced analytics & modeling

> Which drivers influence items, brands or category results?

> Which drivers influence store or chain results?

> What is the marginal contribution of each marketing mix driver on item, brand, category, store or chain?

One Step Beyond


An example: what is my optimal price?

VARIABLE DE TRI INDICE 100 94 100 102 110 % NB OBS.DETENTEUR 89 32 24 15 18 INDICE DE VALIDITE 3 3 3 3 3 VENTES HEBDO 9.7 7.41 11.01 13.05 11.82 STRUCT. DES VENTES 100 36 27.8 17.6 18.5 PRIX M OYEN 3.95 3.73 3.94 4.01 4.34 NB REFERENCES 1 1 1 1 1 % NB REFERENCES 3.2 3.5 3.1 3 2.9 % OBS MEA 0 0 0 0 0 % OBS QTES GRATUI TES 0 0 0 0 0 % OBS PROSPECTUS 0 0 0 0 0 CA / 1500 CAT P 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 CATP 58204 42359 67 735 72607 79617

Etu de en a cte d'acha t ETUDE EN EUR

2

2.8

1.9

1.5

2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

MAG. FILTRES <= 3.80 3. 80 < <=3. 99 3.99 < <=4.06 > 4.06

Part de Marché en Volume

A Little Step Beyond


Specific Issues; Specific AnswersDecomposing historical brand sales ensures clients can quantify return on investment

Weeks

Vo

lum

e

Base Sales Loyalty Card Offers Multi Pack Deal

Buy 1 Get 1 Free TV Advertising Loss To Competitor Activity

Buy 1 Get 1 Free Offer Return On Investment AnalysisIncremental Volume: 1 million litres

Incremental Contribution: £400,000Cost Of Promotion: £300,000

Return On Promotion Investment: £100,000

Buy 1 Get 1 Free Offer Return On Investment AnalysisIncremental Volume: 1 million litres

Incremental Contribution: £400,000Cost Of Promotion: £300,000

Return On Promotion Investment: £100,000

A Big Step Beyond


AGENDAAGENDA




> Business Case


A.C. Nielsen Company BelgiumA.C. Nielsen Company Belgium

50 years on the market!50 years on the market!

25 Million €25 Million €

170 full time persons170 full time persons

200 regular clients200 regular clients


The Retail indexThe Retail index

Desk Research Field Research

Sample Universe

one time only

continuous

Individuals households retailstores

wholesalers

with the sample stores we count 12.5% of total turnover

or the purchases of 500,000 households


Disproportionate sampleDisproportionate sample

# stores % turnover SampleSample

ratioprop.

sampleSample

ratio

Cel N°1 200 50% 50 1/4 8 1/25

Cel N°2 400 25% 25 1/16 16 1/25

Cel N°3 900 15% 15 1/60 36 1/25

Cel N°4 1000 10% 10 1/100 40 1/25

2500 100% 100 1/25 100 1/25


Retailing Some facts and some figures

Retailing Some facts and some figures


Turnover of the ACNielsen food universe

5.1 5.7 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.58.3 8.9 9.5 10 10.1 10.410.8 11.311.9 12.5 13 13.113.5 14 14.3 14.815.3 15.6 16 16.717.4

18.2

76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03

in Billion Euro

+ 4.9%+ 4.9%


Private consumption (Billions Euro) =28.3 Billions Euro

Source: Fedis & ACNielsen

46%

34%

20%

98.7 121.6 169.3

2003: ACNielsen Food Universe =64 % of food retailing =23 % of retailing =11 % of total private consumption

50%

32%

18%

7%

11%

8%

12%

53%

30%

17%

6%

11%


Retail is losing market share in total private consumption...

57.8

56.357

56 55.554.4

53.9 53.6 53.5 53.953.3

52

50.5 50.049.0

48.4 48.248.9

47.848.5 48.0 48

46.8

56.5

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03

Source: Fedis & INS


Hoeveel voedingswinkels waren er in 1970 in België?


Evolution of the number of stores(000 stores)

8770 86298770 8629

= - 141 stores= - 141 stores

34.9

23.9

15.613.8 13

9.9 9.2 8.8 8.6

18.4

70 75 80 85 90 95 '00 '01 '02 '03


HD : Hard Discount

Aldi & Lidl

HD: HARD DISCOUNTERS.

Beperkt assortiment, PL, lage prijs.

F1 : Mass Retail (limited list)

Colruyt, Delhaize Le Lion, Carrefour (CRF, Super GB), Match, Mestdagh (Super M Champion) & Cora

F1 :

GROTE SUPERMARKTEN

Ruim assortiment, nationale merken en PL.

AC Nielsen SHOPTYPES

F2 : Medium Non-Integrated Distribution

AD Delhaize, Spar, GB-Partner, GB-Contact, Alvo, Samgo, Intermarché

F3 : Small Distribution

All Self-Service Shops with a surface < 400 m² (and not belonging to one the shop types above.

Company Owned Independant

F3 : WINKEL OP DE HOEK

Beperkt assortiment, nationale merken.

MARKET

F2 :

ONAFHANKELIJKE WINKELS

Ruim assortiment, nationale merken (en PL).


Market share by new shoptype

20.1

2.9

29.5

47.6

19.2

4.1

30.1

46.6

18.9

5.5

29.7

45.9

17.5

6.2

30.6

45.7

17

7

30.1

45.8

16.5

7.7

29.9

45.9

15.7

7.6

30.1

45.9

14.2

7.6

31.4

46.8

13.5

7.7

31.2

46.8

12.8

8.3

30.7

48.3

12.4

8.9

30.4

48.3

12

9.2

30.2

48.5

11.4

9.8

29.7

49.1

10.8

10.2

29.3

49.7

10.3

10.7

28.7

50.3

9.8

10.7

28.3

51.1

9.4

10.9

28.2

51.5

8.7

11.2

27.9

52.2

7.9

12.4

27.6

52

7.3

12.4

27.6

52.8

7

12.8

26.9

53.3

83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03

F3 Hard Discounters F2 F1

03 vs. 0203 vs. 02


Average turnover per store in 1994-2003:(en 000 Euro) - current prices

Average F1 HD F2Total Self Service Trad. Service

1994 1042 13630 4472 2610 153 330 101

1995 1080 14117 4422 2647 150 329 98

1996 1128 14315 4402 2721 150 332 92

1997 1206 14666 4190 2821 153 332 92

1998 1330 15348 4085 3036 164 343 95

1999 1466 15542 3973 3186 176 352 100

2000 1613 16108 3955 3410 183 359 104

2001 1819 16903 4053 3629 192 376 107

2002 1982 17543 4007 3835 196 383 1082003 2114 18209 3966 4195 202 388 107

F3 per type:


Evolution number of Hard Discounter stores

333

536588

278310

271268262235

255244

184143

450429

378

510

204222

401

101

83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03

+52


Wie behoort tot de Top 3 in retail?


European Retailing European Retailing


Europe today

> 3 602 900 km² 378 million inhabitants ( 77% = urban) 426.900 food stores (01/01/1999)

> 4.900 hypermarkets { >2500m² } ( = 1.1%)

> 13.950 Large supermarkets { >1000m² } ( = 3.3%)

> 42.800 Small supermarkets { >400m² } (= 10%)

> 102.700 Superettes { >100 m² } ( 24.1%)

> 262.550 Clerk service shops (61.5%)


32.1 23.4 24.8 13.5 6.2

Hyper- & Supermarkets take most of the EURO’s(Turnover split by shoptype)

Hypermarkets

32.4€L Supermarkets

23.3€Conv. SM

13.1€S Supermarkets

25.1€Trad

6.1€


… howeverEurope is still a mosaic


ACV in million Euro & number of shops2001

16.7209.891

1.690

21.822

5.229 4.173

132.993

37.637

3.534

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

ACV in mln. Euro Number of shops Euro (x 1.000) per avg. shop

Belgium

Netherlands

France

How different are France, Belgium & Holland?


Retailing Private Labels in Belgium Retailing Private Labels in Belgium


Global Market Share of Private Labelsin Belgium

11.413 13.7

15.216.316.717.318.4

19.820.9

22.625.1

26.327.6

28.828.629.130.1 30 30.130.5

14.7

Food + Non-food (value share)Food + Non-food (value share)


Value Share of Private Labels YTD P09/04

49.5

43.239.6

33.730.3 31.3

25.622.1

17.9 16.4 17.2

9.9

36.5

FROZEN DAI RY GROCERY BAK.&BI SC. HOUSEK. ALC. BEV. HEALTH&B

PAPERPAPER PETFOOD/CAREPETFOOD/CARE HOT BEV.HOT BEV. NON ALC BEVNON ALC BEV CONFECT.CONFECT. FABRICSFABRICS


Hard Discount in Europe Hard Discount in Europe


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1988 1993 1997 2000

Source: Euromonitor, NatWest Securities and AIM estimates

Growth of discounters in EuropeMarket share (value)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0

Belgium

France

Greece

Netherlands

Spain

United Kingdom

Austria

Denmark

Germany

Italy

Portugal

Is there a country which is not threatened by pan european discounts?

Value Market Share

Gro

wth

in N

o. o

f st

ores

199

7-20

02

Italy

Germany

Spain

UK

Portugal

Greece

Austria

Bubble Size:Discount sales per capita

France

Belgium

Netherlands

Denmark +


magine!> Purchase power of €50 million per item!

> Attracting 35% of shoppers weekly!

> Spending €30 per trip, while saving €30!

> Selling €200 million in 12 minutes!

> 1 Hard discount store per 10.000 inhabitants!

> Discount retailers capture 50% of the market growth!

> 80% of consumers judge hard discount product quality equal to

supermarkets!

> Price reduction strategy of the brands do not work!

This is not imagination: each statement is true!



AGENDAAGENDA




> Business Case


Structure of the information

AC Nielsen information is AC Nielsen information is alwaysalways structured around structured around

thethe same same four dimensions. four dimensions.

AC Nielsen information is AC Nielsen information is alwaysalways structured around structured around

thethe same same four dimensions. four dimensions.


The 4 AC Nielsen dimensions : Markets

Markets1. Markets


2. AC Nielsen Areas

Area 1 = Oost- en West-VlaanderenArea 1 = Oost- en West-Vlaanderen

Area 2 = Limburg, Antwerpen en Vl. BrabantArea 2 = Limburg, Antwerpen en Vl. Brabant

Area 3 = 30 gemeenten rond BrusselArea 3 = 30 gemeenten rond Brussel

Area 4 = Henegouwen en Waals BrabantArea 4 = Henegouwen en Waals Brabant

Area 5 = Luik, Namen en LuxemburgArea 5 = Luik, Namen en Luxemburg

MARKET

1. ACNielsen shoptypesF1F2NIF2IF3


3. AC Nielsen Chain Data

Currently coöperating distributors :

Carrefour, Colruyt, Delhaize, Match, Mestdagh, AD Delhaize, Battard, Profi, Intermarché, Spar, Prima.

Aldi & Lidl:

Based on ticket collection at exit through field team.

MARKET


Markets Products

The 4 ACNielsen dimensions :The 4 ACNielsen dimensions : Products Products

1. Markets 2. Products


PRODUCTS

> CLIENT databases are structured according to the clients wishes, based upon the ACNielsen characteristics.

> Total Market

1 Manufacturer

2 Brand

3 Size

4 Flavor


Markets

Facts

Products

The 4 ACNielsen dimensions : Periods The 4 ACNielsen dimensions : Periods


3. Periods


> Data are received on a weekly basis and can be produced and delivered weekly (9 days delay).

> However most clients receive 4-weekly data delivered from 1 to 13 times per year.

> In the database periods are defined by the last day included in the period :

> SEP1704 : starts August 23 2004, ends September 17 2004

> Cumulation of 13 periods = One year (MAT).

> Other cumulation -> (YTD, season, …)

PERIOD


Markets

Facts Periods

Products

The 4 ACNielsen dimensions : Facts The 4 ACNielsen dimensions : Facts


3. Periods 4. Facts


A. SALES (not for chains)

1. Sales units equivalized

- sales expressed in the equivalized unit the client has chosen (liters, kilos, ...)

2. Sales units

- sales expressed in “Number of EAN’S”

12 Pick Up singles = 12 (EAN’S scanned)

1 Pick Up 12 pack = 1 (EAN scanned)

3. Sales value

- Sales expressed in Euro

FACTS


B. DISTRIBUTION (not for chains)

1. Numeric Distribution

- % of shops in the market breakdown that have sold the product (at least once) during the considered period 4 weeks)

2. Weighted Distribution

- % of turnover those shops represent within the total turnover of the product

class

FACTS


C. SHARES and PRICES

1. Average Retail Price Equivalized

- Sales Value / Sales Units Equivalized

2. Share Units

- Market Share expressed in Units.

3. Share Units Equivalized

- Market Share expressed in Kg...

4. Share Value

- Market Share expressed in euro

FACTS


En nu even oefenen!


Let ’s practice ...

> WD : 20

> ND : 40

> WD : 50

> ND : 45

> What can you say about our distribution ?



> Sales Value : 2.000.000

> Sales Units : 20.000

> Sales Volume (kg) : 40.000


> Sales Units : 20.000

> Sales Volume (kg) : 70.000

> What did we do ?




> Sales Units Equivalized: 20.000

> Share in Value : 25 %

> Share in Units Equivalized: 15 %

> What can you say about our pricing?




> Any Promo WD : 10

> Sales Unit Equivalized : 20.000


> Any Promo WD : 40

> Sales Unit Equivalized: 30.000

> What happened ?


En nu de finale: the business case!


INPUT

> EXCEL Files with data on a certain market :

> Products : - One Market

- besides PL, three important brands and one booming new brand

> Markets : - Total Belgium

- All Shop Types

- 3 Regions

> Periods : - 4-weekly periods

- 3 years backdata

> Facts : - Sales

- Distribution

- Shares & Prices

- Promo & shelf


INPUT

> 11 EXCEL Files

> UG-SU Sales Units

> UG-SUE Sales Units Equivalized

> UG-SV Sales Value

> UG-WD Weighted Distribution

> UG-ND Numeric Distribution

> UG-PWD Promo WD

> UG-P Price

> UG-SHU Share Units

> UG-SHUE Share Units Equivalized

> UG-SHV Share Value

> UG-SHELF Shelf Space


INPUT

TOTAL BELGIUMSHARE VALUE AUG2700 SEP2400 OCT2200 NOV1900 DEC1700 JAN1401 FEB1101 MAR1101 APR0801 MAY0601

TOTAL MARKET 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0BRAND 1 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.3 2.9 2.2 2.7 3.4 2.5 2.8BRAND 2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2BRAND 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0BRAND 4 17.2 17.1 16.8 16.3 15.7 16.9 15.6 16.4 16.8 16.2BRAND 5 14.6 15.5 15.1 14.4 15.1 13.3 15.1 13.9 14.6 13.4BRAND 6 16.8 17.0 18.2 17.7 16.7 17.2 17.3 15.5 16.8 17.0BRAND 7 6.1 9.2 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.7 7.8 6.3 6.7BRAND 8 2.1 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7BRAND 9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.4PL 35.2 30.2 32.4 33.2 34.1 34.9 33.6 33.6 34.3 35.4OTHER BRANDS 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.0 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.7 5.4 5.3TOTAL MARKET 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0FLAVOR 1 50.6 50.1 51.1 51.5 51.2 51.6 52.0 52.3 51.6 50.7FLAVOR 2 44.1 43.6 44.0 43.8 43.8 43.4 43.3 42.5 43.7 44.3FLAVOR 3 5.4 6.3 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.0 4.7 5.2 4.6 5.0TOTAL MARKET 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0BRAND 1 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.3 2.9 2.2 2.7 3.4 2.5 2.8BRAND 1 FLAVOR 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.4BRAND 1 FLAVOR 2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.2 1.4BRAND 1 FLAVOR 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0BRAND 2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2BRAND 2 FLAVOR 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0BRAND 2 FLAVOR 2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1BRAND 2 FLAVOR 3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1BRAND 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0BRAND 3 FLAVOR 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0BRAND 3 FLAVOR 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


OUTPUT

> A written report (including charts) to be submitted on 21/12/04 (MTB) or 22/12/2004 (lic TEW)

> In 2 copies

> Maximum 10 pages (no appendix)

> What are the major market trends ?

> What is the position of our brand ?

> What are the major trends for our brand ?

> What are your recommendations ?


Contact: Joëlle Lontie Plejadenlaan 73 1200 BrusselE-mail: [email protected]

Documents

© 2004 ACNielsen 1 Introductie tot AC Nielsen 2de Lic Toegepaste Economische Wetenschappen A.O. Meertalige bedrijfscommunicatie 12 Oktober 2004 27 Oktober