FAST Plan pt 1: The Need for a New Transit Plan

FAST Plan Pt 1: Why We Need a New Approach to Public Transit© 2013 by The Mission Group 1© 2008 by The Mission Group

F.A.S.T. PlanDecember 2013

An affordable approach to creating a more

effective and user-friendly transit system

Financially Achievable —

Saves Time

Part IWhy We Need a New Approach to Public Transit

Produced under the auspices of Move San Diego, Inc., and the Scripps Ranch/Miramar Ranch North Traffic Reduction Project.

FAST Plan Pt 1: Why We Need a New Approach to Public Transit© 2013 by The Mission Group 2

The ResultsThe Results

The PlanThe Plan

BackgroundBackground

The FAST PlanThe FAST Plan

1Why We Need a

New Approach to Public Transit

1Why We Need a

New Approach to Public Transit

2How to Create a World Class

Transit System

2How to Create a World Class

Transit System

3The Plan:Central

3The Plan:Central

4The Plan:

South County

4The Plan:

South County

5The Plan:Mid-City

& East County

5The Plan:Mid-City

& East County

6The Plan:Greater

Golden Triangle

6The Plan:Greater

Golden Triangle

7The Plan:

I-15 Corridor

7The Plan:

I-15 Corridor

8The Plan:

North County

8The Plan:

North County

9Results:

Costs & Benefitsof the FAST Plan

9Results:

Costs & Benefitsof the FAST Plan


Why do we need transit?


You Are Here.


An effective transit system—one that attracts a large share

of current drivers—can addimmeasurably to regional

quality of life and allow familiesto reduce what they mustspend on transportation.


But will San Diegans ever use transit?

Didn’t I hear that only 2% of people use transit?

© 2013 by The Mission Group 7FAST Plan Pt 1: Why We Need a New Approach to Public Transit

Not 2% of People!!Not 2% of People!!

How Many People Use Transit?

Transit Trips, 2%

All O

ther Trips, 98%

2% of Daily Trips


In Any Given Week

1 in 8 People Ride


Transit Trips, 2%

All O

ther Trips, 98%

2% of Daily Trips


In Any Given Month

1 in 4 People Ride

In Any Given Week

1 in 8 People Ride


Transit Trips, 2%

All O

ther Trips, 98%

2% of Daily Trips


In Any Given Year

3 in 5 People Ride

In Any Given Month

1 in 4 People Ride

In Any Given Week

1 in 8 People Ride


Transit Trips, 2%

All O

ther Trips, 98%

2% of Daily Trips

Source: SANDAG surveys


San Diegans ride transit when it’s convenient and useful for them to do so.

The challenge, therefore, is to make transit moreuseful and convenient

to more people.


Don’t we already have an extensive

regional transit plan?

Why would we need a better plan?


SANDAG’s Regional Transportation Plan 2050 (RTP)

A 40-year, $214 billion plan.

$20.4 billion (2010 $) in new transit capital projects.

$19.4 billion (2010 $) for transit operations.

Major projects include new trolley (light rail) lines, arterial “rapid bus,” freeway-based “Bus Rapid Transit,” and Streetcar lines.


The Plan looks extensive. So what’s the problem?


At the level of a small diagram, the new regional transit plan

looks extensive enough. But a deeper look reveals that the

transit system will still be slow, poorly located, and cumbersome for too many trips for too manypeople too much of the time.


If Your Goal Is to:


If Your Goal Is to:A. Significantly increase transit

use.

Especially among the crucial “middle market.”



use.

B. Get more people to their jobs.



use.


Then You Need to:



use.


Then You Need to:1. Better serve existing urban

form.

Get closer to where people AREand get them much closer to

where they are GOING.



use.



form.

2. Make transit faster.



use.



form.

2. Make transit faster.

3. Improve the customer

experience.


The Regional Transportation Plan contains $14 billion in light

rail (Trolley) projects.

Will this investment help us achieve our goals for a fast,

convenient system?


“The Trolley is really popular with San Diegans…

…they’re just not riding it.”— Job Nelson, reporting on the KPBS/Competitive Edge Survey of San Diegans, Full Focus, July 2005


Problem #1:

The Trolley, as we’ve built it, just doesn’t attract enough

people out of their cars.

Here are the facts…


“Choice Riders” on the Trolley

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

City Bus

(25%)

0% 1995

% of Trolley Riders Who “Had an Auto Available” for Their Trip

Source: SANDAG

In 1995, only about 1/3 of Trolley riders (and ¼ of bus riders) claimed

they could have taken a car.



100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

City Bus

(25%)

0% 1995 2003


Source: SANDAG

By 2003, with Trolley expansions to Old Town, Mission Valley, and

Santee… the number was unchanged.



100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

City Bus

(25%)

0% 1995 2003


2009Source: SANDAG

By 2009, with the Trolley to SDSU… the number was still unchanged.



As popular as the Trolley is, it isn’t attracting a large number of additional

people from their cars, even with major expansions. Why not?



Travel Time



Travel Time

Door-to-door journey times are still way too long for most people.







StationAccess

Travel Time





Stations still aren’t close enough to origins and destinations.



Trip Patterns

Travel Time





StationAccess

All those new lines still aren’t aligned with actual trip patterns.


They Trolley, in fact, does not attract a market different

than that of the city bus.

A true rapid transit system would attract larger numbers

of middle-income riders.


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Below$15k

$15k -<$25k

$25k -<$50k

$50k -<$75k

$75k -<$100k

$100kand Up

Income Level of Transit Riders

MTSBus

Household

Income

MTS Bus riders are overwhelmingly low income.

Source: SANDAG, “Results of the 2009 Onboard Transit Passenger Survey for the San Diego Region” (February, 2011).


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Below$15k

$15k -<$25k

$25k -<$50k

$50k -<$75k

$75k -<$100k

$100kand Up

The Commuter Rail attracts a much higher-income ridership.


Household

Income


CommuterRail

MTSBus


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Below$15k

$15k -<$25k

$25k -<$50k

$50k -<$75k

$75k -<$100k

$100kand Up


MTSBus

CommuterRail

FreewayBus

Premium Express (freeway) buses attract the same market as the commuter rail.

Household

Income




0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Below$15k

$15k -<$25k

$25k -<$50k

$50k -<$75k

$75k -<$100k

$100kand Up

MTSBus

LightRail

CommuterRail

FreewayBus


The San Diego Trolley (light rail) attracts the identical low-income market of the MTS Bus.

Household

Income


Do we want to create a rapid transit system that would serve San Diego’s broader market?

Then we can’t just keep doing more of the same.


Problem #2:

For a spread-out city like San Diego, a traditional rapid transit network (be it light rail or “rapid bus”) is just too

slow to attract significant numbers of choice riders (people with cars).


Let’s take an example: going from the heart of the Grantville

Redevelopment Area to a 3:00 pm meeting downtown.

At what time would you need to leave your origin to arrive on time?


How Much Time Do You Have?

6 M

ILES

Trolley Station


How Much Time Do You Have?

Source for times: Best case light rail trip from www.sdcommute.com

3:00

1:551:50

2:046

MIL

ES

To make it on time to your3:00 pm meeting, you’d

needto catch the 2:04 pm

Trolley—meaning you’d need to walk out of your

office around 1:50 pm, 70 minutes

before the actual meeting!

To make it on time to your3:00 pm meeting, you’d

needto catch the 2:04 pm

Trolley—meaning you’d need to walk out of your

office around 1:50 pm, 70 minutes

before the actual meeting!


Problem #3:

San Diego’s land uses generally aren’t arranged along straight lines,

making them difficult to serve effectively with single lines

(such as much light rail or BRT).

Here is a concrete example…


Mission Valley illustrates the problem of creating

effective transit in San Diego.

According to some measures, it’s our region’s second

largest office market.


Mission Valley

Mission Valley, because it’s long and linear, seemed like it would

be a good fit for the Trolley.

Mission Valley, because it’s long and linear, seemed like it would

be a good fit for the Trolley.


Mission Valley

Here, we’ve drawn a ¼ mile radius around each station—

a theoretical five minute walk. On the destination end of a

work trip, most people aren’t even willing to walk that far.


Mission Valley

Now we’re showing just the land within that ¼ mile radius that’s actually accessible to a trolley station. Close to half the land

within ¼ mile is NOT accessible.


Mission Valley

Location of major office employment in Mission Valley

Location of major office employment in Mission Valley

With only a couple of exceptions, nearly all of the major office

employment in Mission Valley is inconvenient to a Trolley station.


In other words, after spending $ ¾ billion on building light rail

through Mission Valley, you can’t conveniently get to your office job.


These next set of maps depict our household density in 2000, using a ¼ mile grid

(about a 5-minute walk).

If transit isn’t touching a grid cell, it’s probably too far to be convenient for

most people in adjacent cells.


San Diego:HouseholdDensity

Households per Acre


San Diego:HouseholdDensity

Existing Light Rail (Trolley)

Planned

Households per Acre


A transit solution in the Mid-Coast would need to get people into and out of the beach communities, as well as to/from and around the greater Golden Triangle. Even if you build a Mid-Coast light rail, you would still need to go back and make significant new investments just to solve this challenge.


Bottom Line:As much as we like the Trolley,

and however successfulor popular it may appear to be

it cannot possibly hopeto reach into enough places

and transport people quickly enough

to transform the role of transit in this region.


Challenge:

Our region’s elected officials and public agencies need to

address these issues directly and mandate an approach

to rapid transit that will actually attract and serve

our broader market.


With light rail and many forms of Bus Rapid Transit, transit networks generally resemble pearls on a string, with vehicles stopping at every

station. If you’re traveling a longer distance—and most San Diegans are—your trip becomes too long, with too many transfers and too many stops.

“Traditional” Rapid Transit

Trolley(Light Rail)

“Rapid Bus” (BRT

Lite)



If you board here



To arrive here



Board and ride five stops. 1



Transfer between modes.

2



Board and ride five stops.

3



Transfer between trains.

4



Board and ride two stops.5



Transfer between modes.6



Board and ride four

stops.7


Faster: Express Routes

An express network is faster, especially when it is designed to reach into neighborhoods and major job sites. Express routes can behave as Rapid Bus,

then travel non-stop between major stations, then distribute at a major destination zone. To be feasible, they need to attract enough riders,

and that depends on connectivity with other express routes.





Board and ride six stops.

Doesn’t stop at intervening stations 1



Same PlatformTransfer.

2



Ridefive

stops.3


In an effective express network, “SuperStations” become the hubs of the system, where both all-stops and express routes converge.

SuperStations


What about the freeway-based Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in our Regional Transportation Plan?

Is that the kind of express network you’re talking about?


Not really. Most destinations can’t be served well, and transit is still

subject to traffic delays.

A far better option is one chosen by Brisbane, Australia, which has built grade-separated busways—Quickways—that in some places run alongside freeways, other

times break off to serve destination zones.


Too many delays; poorly located stations

San Diego Freeway-Based BRTSan Diego Freeway-Based BRT Brisbane “Quickway”Brisbane “Quickway”

Straight-line in and out;faster and better.

Straight-line in and out;faster and better.

Bus in mixed traffic; any incident and bus

is held up, too.

Bus in mixed traffic; any incident and bus

is held up, too.

Grade-separated busway (Quickway) used only by transit

and emergency services—more

reliable and quicker.

Grade-separated busway (Quickway) used only by transit

and emergency services—more

reliable and quicker.

A lot of time is lost accessing off-line

stations. Slower service attracts fewer riders AND

costs more to operate.

A lot of time is lost accessing off-line

stations. Slower service attracts fewer riders AND

costs more to operate.

Stations are in-line.Stations are in-line.


Passenger unfriendly stations.Passenger unfriendly stations.

San Diego Freeway-Based BRT


Brisbane: Passenger-friendly stationsBrisbane: Passenger-friendly stations

No obstructions

No obstructions

Shelter from sun & occasional rain

Shelter from sun & occasional rain

Shelter from windShelter from wind

Coffeeshop linked to station

Coffeeshop linked to station


San Diego Freeway-Based BRT

Lack of infrastructure once off freeway leads to delays and poor customer experience: you’re still just waiting by the side of the

road, and transit is still in traffic.

Lack of infrastructure once off freeway leads to delays and poor customer experience: you’re still just waiting by the side of the

road, and transit is still in traffic.


What about “Arterial Rapid Bus?”


Arterial Rapid Bus

Many trips will require

multiple transfers

Many trips will require

multiple transfers

Service will still be slow in

congested areas

Service will still be slow in

congested areas

Arterial rapid bus, as being planned, is a step above local bus service—but is a far cry

from rapid transit, despite it being named “rapid.”


Arterial Rapid Bus: High Speed?

From the official Rapid Bus website:

Mid-City Rapid will be a high-speed, limited-stop bus service between San Diego State University and Downtown San Diego… a fast and reliable way to get around…



SDSU to Santa Fe Depot

Distance: 9.5 miles

Travel Time: 38 mins

Average Speed: 15 mph

Travel Timeon Trolley: 32 mins





SDSU to Santa Fe Depot

Distance: 9.5 miles

Travel Time: 38 mins

Average Speed: 15 mph

Travel Timeon Trolley: 32 mins

Our approach to “Rapid Bus” is still… slow.

What would the market consider “high speed”?




To be fair, the Mid-City Rapid Bus is still an improvement for the areas served.

But the transit potential of Mid-City and Hillcrest/North Park is much greater, and the modest improvements of the Rapid Bus are still insufficient to transform the role of transit in those zones.


Why not just emulate a successful European city?


Some local advocates for improved transit argue

that we should emulate a city such as Bordeaux,

France, which has developed a model tramway system as

depicted here.

Some local advocates for improved transit argue

that we should emulate a city such as Bordeaux,

France, which has developed a model tramway system as

depicted here.


San Diego, to identical scale as Bordeaux map, showing Bordeaux’s tram lines (flipped to fit San Diego’s orientation) superimposed. They reach just from Old Town to National City.

San Diego, to identical scale as Bordeaux map, showing Bordeaux’s tram lines (flipped to fit San Diego’s orientation) superimposed. They reach just from Old Town to National City.


Bordeaux, at same scale as San Diego map, showing tram lines superimposed on San Diego (with our Trolley lines in red).


San Diego’s light rail system extends over a much larger area, with excessive trip times as a result—and it doesn’t always effectively serve many of the communities it passes through, let alone areas far from lines.

Bottom line: San Diego does not resemble a compact European city. What may work well in our core doesn’t solve our regional problem!

Weighted brown lines show number of trips between Downtown and origin zone.

Bordeaux, at same scale as San Diego map, showing tram lines superimposed on San Diego (with our Trolley lines in red).


So how DO we develop an effective rapid transit plan?


We start with what we know about San Diegans

and what makes them decide to choose a transit option.


What Attracts New Transit Riders?

1/6 will never use

transit

1/6 strongly prefer transit

SAN DIEGO

Source: 2000 MTDB Survey of San Diegans



1/6 will never use

transit


2/3 will use transit if and when it

meets their needs:

SAN DIEGO



“Get me from point A to point B…”

A B

1/6 will never use

transit



meets their needs:

SAN DIEGO



“… quickly and don’t make me wait…”

NEXT VEHICLE:

< 10 minutes


A B

1/6 will never use

transit



meets their needs:

SAN DIEGO




NEXT VEHICLE:

< 10 minutes


A B

“…and I want to feel good about it.”

1/6 will never use

transit



meets their needs:

SAN DIEGO




NEXT VEHICLE:

< 10 minutes


A B

“…and I want to feel good about it.”

1/6 will never use

transit



meets their needs:

Network Structure

(Connectivity)

SystemPerformance

(Time)

CustomerExperience

SAN DIEGO


In other words: faster,

more direct, more convenient,

less waiting, and improved experience.


How do you make transit that much faster,

pervasive, and more convenient?


Here’s how:

A true regional express network.Better-designed stations.Better-located stations.Improved frequencies.


Has any comparable city recently done this?


Brisbane: A Model City

“Brisbane is now at the leading edge in urban mass transit… the new busway… will attract international attention for the level of quality and customer focus that [has been] incorporated.”

— Hans Rat, Secretary General, International Public Transport Association (IUTP)


Brisbane—Southeast Busway

The Challenge:

Brisbane has an extensive electrified commuter rail system, but they faced a real problem: people who didn’t live by train stations were a lot less likely to ride the train than people who did… and most people didn’t live by a station!



The Solution:

A system of grade-separated busways (Quickways) with stations spaced every mile, passing lanes at stations, and high-speed geometries. With no cross-traffic and no pedestrians, fast travel times are possible.



The Solution:

Brisbane’s Quickways not don’t behave just like a rail line, but support an extensive network of express services that reach into neighborhoods, get on the Quickway, but stop only at major destinations. The result? Travel times at peak hours faster than driving.


Grade separation = no cross traffic, leading to faster and more reliable travel times.

Grade separation = no cross traffic, leading to faster and more reliable travel times.


Tunnels and fly-overs let transit avoid congestion and place

stations in optimal locations.

Tunnels and fly-overs let transit avoid congestion and place

stations in optimal locations.



In this case, a hospital wing was built floating over the

Quickway station, which was integrated into the hospital. This tight integration drives

ridership higher.

In this case, a hospital wing was built floating over the

Quickway station, which was integrated into the hospital. This tight integration drives

ridership higher.


Bikeways and bike storage facilities are built into

several Quickway stations.

Bikeways and bike storage facilities are built into

several Quickway stations.


An elevated station links directly into Brisbane’s largest hospital.

An elevated station links directly into Brisbane’s largest hospital.


This bridge is just for transit, pedestrians, and bicycles. It

connects a large university campus with the Quickway network.

This bridge is just for transit, pedestrians, and bicycles. It

connects a large university campus with the Quickway network.


Because Quickways aggregate many routes together,

frequencies are high—and waiting times tend to be much

shorter than on equivalent light rail or BRT systems.

Because Quickways aggregate many routes together,

frequencies are high—and waiting times tend to be much

shorter than on equivalent light rail or BRT systems.


This underground station in Brisbane’s downtown keeps passengers separated from

transit vehicles.


transit vehicles.



transit vehicles.


transit vehicles.


Passengers board buses through

sliding glass doors.

Passengers board buses through

sliding glass doors.


Comparison: Peak Ridership

6-Lane Freeway Southeast Busway (2-lane)

SDTrolley

7,800 18,000 2,700

at the Busiest Spotduring the Busiest Hourin the Peak Direction


Comparison: Peak Ridership

6-Lane Freeway Southeast Busway (2-lane)

SDTrolley

7,800 18,000 2,700

at the Busiest Spotduring the Busiest Hourin the Peak Direction

At its busiest point, the Southeast Busway is moving more than twice as many people as the adjacent

freeway and more than six times as many passengers as the San Diego Trolley at its busiest point.

At its busiest point, the Southeast Busway is moving more than twice as many people as the adjacent

freeway and more than six times as many passengers as the San Diego Trolley at its busiest point.


100%

80%

60%

40%

20%2003 2009

Brisbane: Ridership Growth

2008 Ridership:

Rail: 60 million

Busway: 50 million


140%

120%

160%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%2003 2009

+ 60%


2008 Ridership:

Rail: 60 million

Busway: 50 million

2010 Ridership:

Busway: 72 million


140%

120%

160%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%2003 2009

+ 60%


2008 Ridership:

Rail: 60 million

Busway: 50 million

2010 Ridership:

Busway: 72 million

The creation of just 13 miles of Quickway enabled

Brisbane to support a robust express network that led to a massive increase in transit

ridership.

The creation of just 13 miles of Quickway enabled

Brisbane to support a robust express network that led to a massive increase in transit

ridership.


The FAST Plan is modeled on Brisbane’s successful

approach to transit for a dispersed metro area like San

Diego.


In Part II of this presentation, we’ll show you the elements of the FAST Plan and how we put them together to fashion

a world-class transit system.

Design

FAST Plan pt 1: The Need for a New Transit Plan