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Designing for disruption mindsets for thinking about innovation
https://www.flickr.com/photos/josullivan59/3264396897
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require unprecedented degrees of creativity"Capitalising on Complexity - 2010 IBM CEO Study
create entirely new situations..."converging and influencing each other to
at us faster or with less predictability; they are
"events, threats and opportunities aren't just coming
"...these first-of-their-kind developments
“The big shift”Measuring the forces of long-term change
John Hagel III, John Seely Brown, Lang Davison
https://www.flickr.com/photos/joi/2253804907/
Source: The Power of Pull; An Examination of Firms in the Brave New World of 21st Century Internet Economics by John Seely Brown
years
creation of new infrastructural technology
period of rapid disruption
stability
stability
~60 yrs
Stable s-curve over decades
• 18th, 19th 20th century infrastructure
• goal was to develop scalable efficiency
The past
years
stability?
stability?
period of rapid disruption
creation of new infrastructural technology
• 21st century driven by continuous exponential advances of computation, storage, bandwidth…
Rapid set of punctuated moves(potentially never ending?)
The present
Source: The Power of Pull; An Examination of Firms in the Brave New World of 21st Century Internet Economics by John Seely Brown
http://www.flickr.com/photos/34233222@N05/4292987392
Three mindsets for thinking about design and innovation in times of great uncertainty and opportunity.
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obsolete, and fast.” - Seth Godin“The extraordinary revolution of media choice”
program our consumption is becoming“The idea that someone can
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jenny-pics/5661879987
the balance of power has shifted...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/arenamontanus/3496433929
we can no longer expect customers
predictable manner...
in a linear, exclusive, or
to interact with our creations
http://www.flickr.com/photos/ncanup/3526550845
to create experiences for them...
users no longer have to wait for us
26 Amazon Dash Button Hacks You Probably Didn't Know About
1. Call Uber 2. Order pizza 3. Order beer 4. Order anything from Amazon 5. Track baby data 6. Log your habits into a Google Spreadsheet 7. Add things to a grocery list 8. Track music practice 9. Log your time spent studying 10. Track your work hours 11. Control any power outlet in your home 12. Control Philips Hue lights 13. Control your Tesla's Air Conditioning 14. Netflix and chill 15. Something else…
(and can find instructions for online)
they can change itif something doesn't suit them,
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…enhance it
Kindle teleprompter
http://twitter.com/#!/joindiaspora
…compete with it
Shopping mall app storeCuration & tech support
Social discovery
Serendipity...(and fun!)
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necessarily a bad thing...this isn’t
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people don't necessarily want the perfect product..."counterintuitive but there is growing evidence that
incomplete, and possibly even substandard seems"Issuing your customers with something that is rough,
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around the edges that they can adapt or improve."
"...they prefer to deal with something ragged
Loose, Martin Thomas
a pragmatic mix of beautiful, and ‘good enough’
https://www.flickr.com/photos/yto/4923423098/
some of the world’s largest brands
thrive by designing products that reflect
https://www.flickr.com/photos/52526343@N05/4843218498
“we want to give customers
the kind of satisfaction that comes
out as “this will do”, not “this is what I want”.It’s not appetite, but acceptance.”Kenya Hara, Designer, MUJI
https://www.flickr.com/photos/bombardier/5456285991
“…if you have an Instagram account, you can slap a tag
on anything, take a picture of it, and sell it...” – Fatima Al Qadiri, Mousse magazine
Neither of these examples have been implicitly facilitated by the platform…they’ve simply been fuelled by the ability to communicate and share, on any device, and with a wide audience.
Find a social vendor1
Source: Why Southeast Asia is Leading the world’s most disruptive business models
2
Source: Why Southeast Asia is Leading the world’s most disruptive business models
Browse products
3
Source: Why Southeast Asia is Leading the world’s most disruptive business models
Inquire via messaging(WhatsApp, Line, WeChat, Messenger, SMS etc.)
4
Source: Why Southeast Asia is Leading the world’s most disruptive business models
Get payment details(PayPal, WeChat, Alipay, bank account etc.)
5
Source: Why Southeast Asia is Leading the world’s most disruptive business models
Confirm payment
Source: Why Southeast Asia is Leading the world’s most disruptive business models
6 Ship and track
behaviours desire paths…
city planners call these ad-hoc
https://www.flickr.com/photos/30356354@N05/14943696241/
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and provide clues to faults,
footprints that reveal actual usage
gaps or opportunities
behaviours desire paths…
city planners call these ad-hoc
Meet yy.com—a “Google Hangouts” style platform with over 300 million users and 11 million channels, and programs ranging from karaoke, to “talk radio” and educational topics.
YY.com began as a social gaming site with video chatrooms so gamers could discuss strategy. The site grew very fast.They had growth…but no profit.
chatrooms, people weren’t just chatting—
some people were singing”
“…until they realised that inside some of the
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— NPR Planet Money
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mckaysavage/135932500/
virtual tickets so they could vote for their
on sale [on TaoBao*] for about $0.25 a piece!”favourite singers…a little later, they found the tickets
“…they gave their users free
*giant C2C e-commerce marketplace
YY now offers its own virtual currency.
Users purchase credits and use them to show affection for their favourite stars by buying them virtual gifts such as roses and lollipops.
Gifts range in cost from mere pennies to as much as $50 (£35) and yy gets a cut of each transaction.
“top Karaoke singers regularly make $20K (£15K) a month
off of virtual gifts, with one college student reportedly
earning an astonishing $188K (£150K) per month
using the site to give Photoshop lessons”- The largest social network you’ve never heard of
In 2014, yy IPOed and more than 50% of their revenue now comes from their virtual currency enabled music business.
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of a product into society...of 50 million to mark the "penetration"
marketers often use an audience
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(which was usually a good thing)
historically, market penetration took time,
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the development of social norms,
with time came stronger mental models,
laws, infrastructure…
http://www.flickr.com/photos/vvvracer/4436798901
time is now often a luxury...for better or worse
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a market penetration of 50 million...it took radio 40 years to reach
Source: ReWired, Larry D. Rosen
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sarahreido/4566354684Source: ReWired, Larry D. Rosen
10 years to 'adapt' to television...
by comparison, we had only
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPPj6viIBmU
less than 6 months...
and YouTube,
Source: ReWired, Larry D. Rosen
http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2011/06/introducing-google-project-real-life.html
in less than half this time...
Google+ reached that milestone
Google + in fact reached this milestone in about 3 months... to the tune of 2million new users a day!
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is now also increasingly diverse
our reach increasingly wide, our audiencesocial ,and the internet, not only isbut thanks to mobile,
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at a pace that was once unheard of...
technology adoption is creating 'generation gaps'researchers are discovering that our rapid
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Lee Rainie, Pew Research Center, Internet and American Life Project
experiences with technology."are having completely different"People two, three or four years apart
How different age groups think about technology is important, but in a global marketplace, it’s the cultural, historical and societal differences that will often make or break a product.
China has 14 cities with populations
over five million...
https://www.flickr.com/photos/decar66/6341327886 Source: Wikipedia, China Highlights
...a whopping 41 cities with
more than 2 million inhabitants
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...and a “middle class” growing at a rate of
80,000 people a day
http://www.flickr.com/photos/tahini/10468208216 Source: China Connect
rural residents can be challenging
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reaching China’s 600 millionfor brands in this market,
its close to 700 million urban residents
but no more so than
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opening enough stores to service
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to many Chinese, shopping online
isn’t so much an electronic version of commerce,
it *is* commerce, pure and simple
it’s therefore not surprising that
https://www.flickr.com/photos/curious_e/10473440064
...and using their mobile to do so isn’t just
a modern alternative to using a PC, it’s their primary
(or sometimes only) means of using the internet
…these factors combined help to explain why Chinese e-commerce has developed quite differently than in Europe or N America
76%of online retail involves individual merchants
of online retail involves online marketplaces90%
Marketplaces—such as Alibaba’s TMall and TaoBao—provide an economically, socially and technologically appropriate alternative to missing infrastructure: high visibility, high traffic, customizable, social-media + mobile optimized commerce.
…but what’s important here isn’t China, its the group of characteristics it represents.
Find similar conditions elsewhere, and you may be able to replicate aspects of this model.
“...most of the people have phones but
there are only 3 malls per 20 million inhabitants*…
It’s a unique time...the right time to leapfrog over ‘offline’.”- jumia.com co-founder
THE BIGGEST ONLINE SHOPPING MALL IN AFRICAEgypt | Kenya | Uganda| Ivory Coast| Nigeria | Morocco
*that’s 60K people per retail outlet compared to 7K in APAC and 389 in the U.S.)
brands in these markets can experiment…
ignore what’s “normal” and find
the most locally appropriate
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with little baggage to weigh them down,
path to profit
https://www.flickr.com/photos/davidrosenphotography/15137403228/
on Instagram [and WhatsApp] with our customers…
we literally have some customers who have ordered
multiple times and never spoken to us…
- How WhatsApp helped Jumia disrupt Africa
“…our [agents] chat all day long
never placed an order online”
https://www.flickr.com/photos/wippetywu/14295584182/
a pair of shoes, return it, and then buy the next size…
so we thought let’s encourage them to order two
or three sizes…and pay only for what they accept- How WhatsApp helped Jumia disrupt Africa
“...we saw that customers would order
Russian e-commerce brand Lamoda has turned poor postal infrastructure into an excuse to deliver items you didn’t even ask for and up-sell you at the door as you try them on…
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sparker/460227098
interdependent systems of experience...
designing multi-layered and tightly
while companies such as Apple are successfully(for the moment) still
http://www.flickr.com/photos/cdharrison/2407640646
their success relies in great part on
most touch points and interactions...
their ability to control and contain
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have this luxury...
most products will not
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be the first to fail...
orchestrated products may in fact
today the most perfectly
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for each layer of experience
there will be trade-offs
in complexity
actors in the ecosystem...
and an increasing reliance on other
http://www.flickr.com/photos/flavouz/3137171590
cost of aluminium?
environmental lobby, recycling?
IP battles, user ‘hacking’, knock-off capsules
http://www.flickr.com/photos/zyphbear/446780548
that have become all too common
...reducing a product's ability to react
to the abrupt changes in environment
fuel costs?
autonomous vehicles, sharing economy, union protests
economic slowdowns
On August 11 2014, online media company BuzzFeed closed a $50M funding round and announced the creation of a new group called BuzzFeed Distributed.
The aim of the group would be to address a growing problem…
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forever changed the way we communicate
mobile and social have
(this can be both a blessing and a curse)
60M
Referrals to BuzzFeed.com
349M
12.5M
Source: Buzzfeed SXSW 2015
60M
349M
Impressions in the social stream
847M 11.3B
6.4B
12.5M
Source: Buzzfeed SXSW 2015
Instead of trying to lure eyeballs to its own website, BuzzFeed would experiment with ways to publish original content directly to where its audience already spent their time—some 30 different global platforms.
BuzzFeed also built Pound*, a sharing-analysis technology that goes beyond traditional analytics that only capture traffic….
what traditional analytics show…
*Process for Optimizing and Understanding Network Diffusion
Source: Buzzfeed
Instead, Pound captures how stories spread on the social web from one person to another, including downstream visits across networks and 1-2-1 platforms like Gchat and email.
what is actually happening
Source: Buzzfeed
BuzzFeed uses this data to inform new experiments and continuously improve content fit, and placement.
People making stuff Apps
Distributed
Webcontent
data, learnings,
$$$
contentdata, learnings, $$$
content
data, learnings, $$$
Source: Buzzfeed SXSW 2015
“…it increasingly doesn’t matter where our content lives…and that can be a huge advantage and it’s something that I think lots of media companies get scared of…but we think it can make us a stronger company” — Jonah Peretti
https://www.flickr.com/photos/43097880@N02/13884849857/Source: Buzzfeed SXSW 2015
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/302869583
the future is rarely
short on narratives…
the future will be full of
opportunities to measure…
Twitter: Bill Gross
Proteus Digital Health - Digital health feedback system
to track…
swallow a smart pill
wear a patch
…track these things using our app
…to anticipate, to recommend,
to test and to optimize…
Almax - EyeSee Mannequin
Photo: Mashable
…it may even be tempting to believe
that data will be all you need
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“You have to use a lot of intuition and a lot of creativity,
and the data is one part of the input…”
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“…data will tell you, if you're very lucky,
what happened. It won't ever tell you why.
If you want to understand why, that requires a different set
of skills, largely in your brain and in your heart”. Dao Nguyen, BuzzFeed data maven, courtesy Wired
“You have to use a lot of intuition and a lot of creativity,
and the data is one part of the input…”
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[email protected] thank you
http://www.slideshare.net/yiibu/letting-go-9109114
many thanks to the amazing photographers on
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0
http://www.flickr.com/creativecommons/by-2.0
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available on
@yiibu
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