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#DataTalk Predictive Data Analytics to Help Your Customers
Join our #DataTalk on Thursdays at 5 p.m. ET
This week, we tweeted with Michael Beygelman, Co-founder and CEO of Joberate, Berry Diepeveen, Partner and Enterprise Intelligence Leader at EY, and Chuck Robida, Chief Scientist for Experian Decision Analytics.
Check out all tweets from this Twitter chat:
ex.pn/predictive
What is predictive analytics?
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
Predictive analytics is extractinginformation from data sets to determinepatterns, predict outcomes and trends.
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian@ExperianDA ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
Predictive analytics is the abilityto use data to predict future behavior
based on past behavior.
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
I think it is as old as business.Nobody can perfectly predict the future,but you want to be more accurate about
what is likely to happen.
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
It’s the ability to analyze data in a waythat can scale, be reproduced, and
provide unbiased results.
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
Clever marketers are redefiningpredictive analytics into whatever suits
them today, so we need to beware.
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
Some techniques get more attentionthan others like machine learning,
but all are used to solve business problems.
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
It is about being able to intervene.What is the point of finding out we
lost a customer after he left? We need to prevent losing one before it happens.
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
I’ve always said that predictive analyticsneeds to be actionable like a brake system
in a car. When you press, it does something.
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
Predictive analytics isn’t a crystal ball, but the value comes in identifying
the propensity of certain behaviors.
How trustworthy is predictive analytics?
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Predictive analytics is very trustworthy,but not when used in pure isolation.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
Predictive analytics has a natural lifeand models need to be continually
validated and aligned to changes in behavior.
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
It’s not just about the predictive modeling,statistics and the algorithms. It’s also about
the play, experiments, intuition and innovation.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
Behaviors change so should your models.Economic change-inflation, housing,
unemployment. Life change: marriage, kids, job ...
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate
In terms of relevance, if associated withsome decisions of value or have meaning,predictive analytics can be very relevant.
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
And you must deal with in a sensible way,especially around sensitive use cases
such as fraud detection.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
Simply put, predictive analytics still comesdown to a cost/benefit decision.
Use it as your compass.
What type of data do companies use for predictive analytics?
Depends on the business goal.Generally a mix of fit-for-purpose internal
and external data types, structuredor unstructured data.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
Sometimes companies start by usinginternal data. In my world, payroll data, promotions, performance reviews, etc.
#DataTalkMichael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate ex.pn/datatalk
Depending on how much success they have with internal data, and how quickly,they’ll usually broaden out to third-party data.
#DataTalkMichael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate ex.pn/datatalk
For lenders: asset evaluations for loans,address change for collections -- all good data,
in compliance with regulation.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
For marketing: social, contact history,profile data, all good data.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
If we go back to the fraud detectionuse case; you’d have to rely on
internal, external, structured and unstructured data.
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
The beauty is that there is no limit aboutwhat data sources you want to tap into.
It’s always driven by the business and use case,not the other way around.
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Only limitations are legal, complianceand your imaginations.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
How much data preparation needs to be done before
executing predictive analytics?
It requires a very tight collaboration betweenbusiness and data science in order
to determine the iterations.
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
Data preparation is arguably as important as the rest of the process.
ex.pn/datatalk#DataTalk
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate
Garbage in, garbage out.Data preparation is the most important step.
Incorrect or insufficient data equalsbad business decisions
ex.pn/datatalk#DataTalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
We see three phases in any predictive analyticsprogram: 1) strict data management, 2) building and applying advanced analytics models, and
3) using data visualization to bring the insights back to the end user.
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
If the sample size is massive, it mightbe more practical to sample the data;else you can use the whole sample.
ex.pn/datatalk#DataTalk
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate
Without strict and rigorous data management,you should question your investments
in data science.
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
Decide what to do with incomplete data,discard it or take guesses at missing data points
by looking at other data in the sample.
ex.pn/datatalk#DataTalk
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate
Be careful before tossing any data. Bias!
ex.pn/datatalk#DataTalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
Many activities like selecting, combining,and aggregating data are important,
especially when defining the form for training.
ex.pn/datatalk#DataTalk
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate
How often should models get updated?
It’s more of a business decision.If your data is updated quarterly,
no point in updating a modelmore often than that.
ex.pn/datatalk
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate
#DataTalk
Frequent model evaluation or validationis critical + results should be taken
in context of other solutionsand external factors.
ex.pn/datatalk#DataTalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
Building good models is the science.It involves experimentation,
sufficient quality data and is time consuming.
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
If data is updated daily, and you choose to update the model quarterly,
you might have to live with somebad assumptions.
ex.pn/datatalk
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate
#DataTalk
Expect a model to naturally deteriorateover time. Predictive analytics
needs to be continually validated forfit for purpose.
ex.pn/datatalk#DataTalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
Regardless of the use case, you needto update models regularly and
structurally, but additional ad hocupdates depend on use case.
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Models are fit-for-purpose and considerthings like economy, home values...Tests + benchmarks exist to ensure
models are robuts.
ex.pn/datatalk#DataTalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
What is often forgotten is that newmodels have to be retrainedwith the updated data sets -
and results verified.
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
What are the best ways totest the effectiveness of
predictive analytics?
There are many scientific ways to test,but the real question is did the analytics
provide you with actionable insights,at the right time.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
Splitting data at the outset could bea good idea so you’re not accidentally
creating a super model that onlyworks on one set.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate
Deploy them in a manner wheretheir impact can be measured in a
controlled environment likechampion-challenger testing.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
Use a majority of the data (say 65% or so)for the build of the model, anduse the 35% of the data for the
test of the model.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate
There are numerous ways to testmodels, and some people swear
by some approaches almost like religion.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate
Test models by using data notused during development.
Validation won’t yield same results,so benchmarking plays a big role.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
One can use lift charts, decile tables,some people like to use target shuffling.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate
What are ways companies can use predictive analytics
in new ways?
Possibilities are endless,but business focus is key.
ex.pn/datatalk
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
#DataTalk
Predictive analytics used to scientificallypredict anything from the future state
economy + weather to spread + cures for disease.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
Newest technologies allow youto quite efficiently translateunstructured into structured
such that it can be included in models.
ex.pn/datatalk
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
#DataTalk
#DataTalkMichael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate ex.pn/datatalk
I spoke to a gentleman atGoldman Sachs. They were using
predictive analytics in the hiring process.
#DataTalkMichael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate ex.pn/datatalk
Goldman Sachs used analysis ofincoming CVs to compare to
top performers and those who hada cultural fit.
What are the challenges when working in predictive analytics?
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
Challenges? Too many :)But making sure you have ample
relevant data is important,and making sure you have tested models
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
Challenges working with predictiveanalytics: data availability,
quality, volume, and statisticallyrobust sample size.
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
We need to seriously considerdata ownership and data privacy
in every single engagement.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
Compliance and control over permissible purposes presentchallenges, especially when
rich data can’t be used.
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Too many examples of not treatingdata as a real asset that
ultimately belongs to the customer.
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Another challenge is resourcesand finding professionals who have
skills around technology, techniques,modeling and business acumen.
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
Globalization of predictive analyticsis another challenge.
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
In more mature markets, the uptakeis “simpler” while in other marketsless so, which creates challenges
for global organizations.
What trends are happening in predictive analytics?
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
In terms of trends, machine learningto automate the analytics process
itself is certainly one of thebigger trends.
ex.pn/datatalk#DataTalk
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
We are predicting the future ofpredictive analytics now.
We need an algorithm and a model. :)
ex.pn/datatalk#DataTalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
Available data + advanced statistics+ new processing tech = businesses
+ can build more meaningful + relationships with consumers.
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
Another trend hard to ignore is thedatafication of our lives;
basketballs to tennis rackets, and Lumo Lift to help you stop slouching
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate ex.pn/datatalk
#DataTalk
Along the datafication continuum,data privacy laws are severely lagging
and will need attention.
ex.pn/datatalk#DataTalk
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
Look at fantastic innovations fromenterprise technology providers
and new ventures that revolutionizethe markets
Any final tips for companies working in predictive analytics?
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate
Become more community basedrather than managed by centralized
IT at big companies, or siloed insome underfunded organization. :)
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
Absolutely! The internet of things iscreating great opportunities where we
have seen completely new business models.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
Business new to predictive analyticsmaintain robust model validation
methodology. Using a broken modelwill cost you money.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate
The input of community into the evolution of predictive analyticscan have profound open-source
like benefits.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
Sophisticated users of predictiveanalytics, remember to start with
the business problem and work backwards.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate
My best tip for working inpredictive analytics is walk,
don’t run. Make sure you take verydeliberate first steps.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
Predictive analytics serves to existfor solving complex business problems.
Start with end in mind.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Michael BeygelmanCEO, Joberate@beygelman @joberate
Decide that you will have a cultureof analytics and then move
into that area. Don’t “test” analyticsto see if they’re “for you.”
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
Do not underestimate how importantthe data visualization is to end
user adoption of predictive analytics.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
The world of analytics and datais exploding. It’s critical to prioritize
analytical opportunities to stay ahead of competition.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
And do not underestimatehow important the data visualization
is to end user adoption of predictive analytics.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Berry DiepeveenPartner, EY@Berry_Diepeveen
The business needs to work withthe insights and it is not about
developing the most accurate andcomplex model.
#DataTalkex.pn/datatalk
Chuck RobidaChief Scientist, Experian @ExperianDA
Simply put, predictive analyticsstill comes down to a cost/benefitdecision. Use it as your compass.
Join our #DataTalk on Twitter on Thursdays at 5 p.m. ET.
experian.com/datatalk