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Case Study: Exploring cumulative effects of regional urban growth strategies

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Exploring Cumulative Effects of Regional Urban Growth Strategies in the Calgary Region

Scenario AnalysisCompare (not predict!) the consequences of urban growth strategiesOutcome contingent on scenario assumptions and indicators

Scenario 1

Scenario 2? +? -

BenefitsLiabilities

ALCES ToolkitSimulate cumulative effects of land useTrack environmental, economic, and social indicators

ScenariosBusiness as usualLow density suburban and acreage development Calgary Metropolitan PlanDensificationMinimum density standardNodal rural development

IndicatorsProtecting the natural environmentWater, footprint, connectivity, wetlandsCompact settlement patternsPopulation density, settlement footprint, human health, farmlandEfficient regional infrastructureInfrastructure construction cost

Data SourcesMunicipalitiesCalgary Regional PartnershipMiistakis InstituteAlberta Biodiversity Monitoring InstituteDucks Unlimited CanadaLiterature

Results

Footprint

Footprint - 2014

BAUCMP

Footprint - 2024

BAUCMP

Footprint - 2034

BAUCMP

Footprint - 2044

BAUCMP

Footprint - 2054

BAUCMP

Footprint - 2064

BAUCMP

Infrastructure Construction Cost

Infrastructure Construction Cost -2014

BAUCMP

Infrastructure Construction Cost -2024

BAUCMP

Infrastructure Construction Cost -2034

BAUCMP

Infrastructure Construction Cost -2044

BAUCMP

Infrastructure Construction Cost -2054

BAUCMP

Infrastructure Construction Cost -2064

BAUCMP

Farmland

Farmland - 2014

Farmland - 2024

Farmland - 2034

Farmland - 2044

Farmland - 2054

Farmland - 2064

Grassland

Grassland - 2014

Grassland - 2024

Grassland - 2034

Grassland - 2044

Grassland - 2054

Grassland - 2064

Water

Population

Population trend

Population - 2014

BAUCMP

Population - 2024

BAUCMP

Population - 2034

BAUCMP

Population - 2044

BAUCMP

Population - 2054

BAUCMP

Population - 2064

BAUCMP

Walk Score

Walk Score - 2014

BAUCMP

Walk Score - 2024

BAUCMP

Walk Score - 2034

BAUCMP

Walk Score - 2044

BAUCMP

Walk Score - 2054

BAUCMP

Walk Score - 2064

BAUCMP

Overweight Risk Reduction

Health

Where to From HereSimulator is now customized for the Calgary Regional Partnership AreaFast and Easy to Use Web-based Delivery of Broad Suite of Environmental, Social and Economic Metrics What-If Simulator to Explore Opportunities and Consequences of Alternative Trajectories