NAVY

BUPERS 3

BUPERS 3Military Community

Management

UPDATED 23 June 2011UPDATED 23 June 2011

Navy Counselors SymposiumNavy Counselors Symposium27 June 201127 June 2011

CAPT Hank Roux Mr. Mike DawsonCAPT Hank Roux Mr. Mike DawsonHead ECM Deputy ECMHead ECM Deputy ECM

NAVY

BUPERS 3Line Up

• Community Management

• Enlisted Programmed Authorization (EPA)

• Fleet RIDE – Perform to Serve

• Enlisted Retention Board (ERB)

• Questions

NAVY

BUPERS 3

Military Community Management Aligned in Echelon II to Increase Effectiveness

DCNO for MPT&E / Chief of Naval Personnel (N1)

N10 N11 N12 N13 N16

Echelon I

Echelon II

Echelon III

NAVY PERSONNEL

CODESCNRC RTC

NETC

BUPERS-3Community Management

BUPERS 31 (OCM) / BUPERS 32 (ECM) / BUPERS 320 (CCD) / BUPERS 34 (Analysis)

NETC N7

N14 N15

Deputy Chief of Naval Personnel (DCNP)

N095

CNRFC

PMO Enterprises

CNRF

NAVY

BUPERS 3

Specific Community Management

Accession planning Quality, quantity, policy Lateral conversions/Redesignations

Training Initial (‘A’) school requirement Advanced/career (‘C’) school requirements

Policy advisor to NETC/OTC

Review billet changes for impacts on community health

Sea/shore rotation Career progression Geo Stability

Information dissemination Link, web pages, PAO efforts Fleet engagement visits

Force structure management Advancement/Promotions Career paths Retention Retirements Separations (early, hardship) Sea shore tour lengths Perform to Serve (PTS) Continuation/SERAD Probationary Officer Continuation and Redesignation

Board Enlisted Retention Board (ERB)

Incentives Pay Bonuses Special duty assignment pay (SDAP) Training incentives (STAR/HPSP)

Miscellaneous NEC changes, Occupational standards, ASVABs

Assess, monitor, inform, develop, review impacts—limited execution

Active & Reserve, Officer & Enlisted

NAVY

BUPERS 3

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 35

2011 EPA E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 2012 EPA

Current Enlisted INV vs FY12 EPA

Zone A Zone B Zone E Zone D Zone C Over 30

• Zone ‘C’ PTS• HYT WaiversE4 HYT

E5 HYT

E7 HYT

E8HYT

Reduced AccessionsFY07-FY08

Filling with PACTS andPTS Conversions

E6 HYT

E9 HYT

20--------CPO Continuation Board---------30

20------- Time-in Grade Waivers ------------30

Force Shaping Principles:- Protect accessions- Protect 15-20 yrs of service- Disciplined distribution- SRB for the right skills- Manage at the rating/NEC level

Force Shaping Principles:- Protect accessions- Protect 15-20 yrs of service- Disciplined distribution- SRB for the right skills- Manage at the rating/NEC level

• Zone ‘B’ PTS• HYT Waivers

NAVY

BUPERS 3

6

Enlisted Programmed Authorizations (EPA)

• The EPA provides the manpower enterprise with a summary of programmed authorizations that is aligned to programmed, funded end strength. Programmed authorizations qualitize all funded end strength to Enlisted management Code (ECM) and Rate Level.

• Programmed authorizations are not one-for-one match with current billet authorizations but are generally very close. Programmed authorizations are created to compensate for deficiencies in the billet base that make the billet base sub-optimal for strength planning and community management purposes.

• Those deficiencies are especially prevalent in the later years of FYDP where much of the funded end strength on new construction ships and squadrons has not yet been turned into authorized billets.

NAVY

BUPERS 3

• Billets and end strength data extracted from TFMMS.

• EPA model matches billets to end strength at the activity level.

– Billets and end strength rarely match due to lag time between end-strength adjustments and billet changes made by the claimants.

• EPA published only semiannually and reflects the final end of fiscal year

billet authorization for each fiscal year across the FYDP.

Paygrade Profile (Display of EPAversus inventory)

Enlisted Programmed Authorizations (EPA)

NAVY

BUPERS 3 EPA Chase

8

307951

294488

280851

271792

269089 267336 266922

307498

298887

287145

282461

274861

270333 270225

240000

250000

260000

270000

280000

290000

300000

310000

320000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Historical EPA vs INV

EPA Inventory

All Act Navy

* EPA= Fall EPA RELEASES** Inventory Oct cut date that FY

Total

Fall FY11 EPA and OCT 2010 Inventory

Spring FY11 EPA and Current Inventory (24MAY11).3,303 Sailor overage.

NAVY

BUPERS 3

MM Historical EPA

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Fiscal Year EPA

Historical EPA Spreads(Inventory based on October Totals)

INVENTORY SEP 2000 MAY 2001 MAY 2002 DEC 2002 JUN 2003 JAN 2004

SEP 2004 APR 2005 NOV 2005 APR 2006 OCT 2006 JUN 2007 NOV 2007

FEB 2008 NOV 2008 APR 2009 SEP 2009 APR 2010 SEP 2010 MAR 2011

2005 Spring EPA published. ECMs managed to the FY07 EPA

8618

7128

2007 Spring EPA published. ECMs managed to the FY09 EPA

5335

6508

2011 Spring EPA published. ECMs managed to the FY13 EPA

44454598

The reduction of EPA for the MM rating since publication of the 2005 EPA equals 4173. This translates to a 51.6% reduction in the MM rating over 7 year period.

NAVY

BUPERS 3

End Strength

10

FY11 Strategic Context

Decreasing Attrition

Unprecedented Retention

Reenlistment Behavior

There is a moderate to strong positive correlation between unemployment rate and reenlistment rates

Sailors are staying out of trouble

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

45%

55%

65%

75%

85%

95%

FY 00 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11

Un

emp

loym

ent R

ate

Ree

nlis

tmen

t Rat

e Zone C

Zone B

Zone A

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

Zone A

Zone B

Zone C

Sailors making earlier long term commitments

• E/S expected to decrease overall across the FYDP

NAVY

BUPERS 3

11

Enlisted Force Stabilization Levers

Future Levers• Maintain PTS pressure to maintain

planned losses in all Zones in FY12

• Reduce Accessions in FY12

• Enlisted Retention Board

• Initial Accession Separation Authority

FY-11 Enlisted Levers Perform-to-Serve (PTS) –maintain the

heavy pressure in all Zone to achieve the planned FY11 losses

Reduced Accessions E5 High Year Tenure Voluntary Early Career Transition E7 – E9 Continuation Board Enlisted Career Transition Program

(Reserve Option) E7 – E9 Time in Grade Waivers

Must re-balance force to meet fiscal and E/S controls

NAVY

BUPERS 3

12

ZONE A (0-6 Years of Service)

SELRES Conversion (transition AC RC)

ZONE B (7-10 Years of Service)

ZONE C (11-14 Years of Service)

FTS Conversion (transition AC RC)

Continuum of Service

Perform-to-Serve Evolution

Since 2003, PTS evolved from Stay Navy to Force Shaping

Force Shaping“Stay Navy”/ Fill FIT

20092003 2011

Future

Requires Additional Funding

RC AC Conversion

IT e

nhan

cem

ents

2012

NAVY

BUPERS 3

Perform-to-ServeUse and Timeline

13

Force Balancing / Shaping Tool• Performance based quota reservation system (In-rate / Conversion / SELRES)• Rating conversion (Overmanned Undermanned)• Controls reenlistment / continuation between zones• End strength management

24-15 15-12 12-6 6 5-3

• Career Development Board

• Use RIDE to review current quotas and opportunities

• Consider retaking ASVAB Submit PTS

Application

PTS Application Window

Orders negotiationwindow 9-7 mo

Final PTS determination

made

Reserve Component PTS

application

Months prior to Sailor’s End of Obligated Service (EAOS) as extended

Application Timeline

Results published monthly. Sailors receive notification of:Approved: In RateApproved: ConversionDenied: Denied Quota but may resubmit monthlyDenied Final: Denied quota and directed to separate at EAOS (as extended)

NC’s play a critical role…

NAVY

BUPERS 3

PTS Results so far … Application Submissions

14Setting the Stage – Facilitating Command Submission

• 1 October 2010: Fleet RIDE – Perform to Serve (PTS) went live• Valid submissions trending up (legacy system applications avg. only 9,600)• Non-compliance trending down, sharply as a percentage of the total

6,652 7,730 8,272 8,991 9,63312,308 11,913 11,656

7,036 7,618 7,4899,103 10,053

12,986 12,923 13,189

2,4951,976 2,105

1,4311,305

1,851 1,380 1,233

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11

PTS ApplicationsSpec Circ Apps Valid SEAOS Submissions SEAOS Failed to Submit

74% 79% 78% 86% 89% 88% 90% 91%

26% 21% 22% 14% 11% 12% 10% 9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11

PTS ApplicationsValid SEAOS Submissions SEAOS Failed to Submit

NAVY

BUPERS 3

Perform-to-ServeMonthly Quota process

Quotas differ for every rate/year group and update monthly 15

MonthlyPTS Cycle

When Sailor applies:•End of contract including extensions•Special circumstances:1. Negotiate for PCS orders or training program2. Benefits (re-enlistment bonus, Post-911 GI Bill eligibility).

Updated based on actual retention behavior and quota utilization

• Performance based algorithm• Competition for in-rate quotas• Followed by up to three

competitions for conversion

Quota planning factors:•Retention rates•Strength targets (OPLAN)•Behavior/quota execution•Eligible population•ECM need zone manning•EPA changes

NAVY

BUPERS 3

Apps Denied - Looks Remaining, 56,743,

83.5%Approved for Active

- In-Rate, 9,309, 13.7%

Approved for Active - Conversion, 307,

0.5%

Approved for SELRES, 223, 0.3%

Approved Convert to FTS, 154, 0.2%

Final Denied - All Others, 383, 0.6%

Final Denied - Active Submission, 850,

1.3%

FY12 A/C Decision Maker PTS Status

16Approved/Denied Impact FY12 E/S

Total Submitted: 67,969

Oct 2010 through Apr 2011 Results

NAVY

BUPERS 3

Apps Denied -Looks Remaining, 105,188, 77.5%

Approved for Active - In-Rate, 18,961,

14.0%

Approved for Active - Conversion, 614,

0.5%

Approved for SELRES, 1,104, 0.8%

Approved Convert to FTS, 239, 0.2%

Final Denied - All Others, 1,784, 1.3%

Final Denied -Active Submission,

7,883, 5.8%

ALL Oct-Mar A/C PTS Applications

1720,918 Approved (15.4%) – VS – 7,883 Denied (5.8%)

Total Submitted: 133,733

Oct 2010 through Apr 2011 Results

NAVY

BUPERS 3

Perform-to-ServeUnder Pressure

Perform-to-Serve (PTS) at limits for effectiveness as an alignment tool PTS reviews only ~18% of force per year

Unprecedented retention and economic conditions FY11 natural losses/attrition below plan and higher retention

than predicted Enlisted End Strength

FY11-12 decrease 2,278 FY12-13 decrease 2,256

Overmanned in some skill sets and undermanned in others 31 skill sets manned at or above 103% in FY11

18

Re-balance force to meet fiscal and E/S controls and position Navy for FY13 and beyond

NAVY

BUPERS 3

19

ERB - 31 Overmanned Ratings

31 of 84 ratings manned at or above 103% in FY12

ABF Aviation Boatswain’s Mate Fuels 108%

AD Aviation Boatswain’s Mate 109%

AT Aviation Electronics Technician 108%

AG Aerographer’s Mate 117%

AS Aviation Support Equipment Technician 113%

AZ Aviation Maintenance Administrationman 111%

AWR Aircrew – Tactical Helicopter 109%

AWV Aircrew – Avionics 109%

AWF Aircrew – Mechanical 108%

GSE Gas Turbine Systems Technician, Electrical 116%

MMSW Machinist’s Mate, Surface Warfare 117%

RP Religious Program Specialist 105%

PR Aircrew Survival Equipmentmen 107%

MR Machinery Repairman 108%

AE Aviation Electrician’s Mate 105%

AM Aviation Structural Mechanic 105%

MN Mineman 104%

OS Operations Specialist 103%

FC Fire Controlman (non-Aegis) 114%

ETSW Electronic Technician, Surface Warfare 106%

PS Personnel Specialist 111%

SH Ship’s Serviceman 111%

STG Sonar Technician Surface 106%

BU Builder 108%

CE Construction Electrician 108%

CM Construction Mechanic 107%

EA Engineering Aide 121%

EO Equipment Operator 107%

SW Steelworker 107%

UT Utilitiesman 107%

EMSW Electrician’s Mate, Surface 103%

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

EPA E1-E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 EPA 2012

by Year Group

NAVY

BUPERS 3

FY 12 8-15 LOS Board Eligible Population of Overmanned Ratings

TOTAL ELIGIBLE POPULATION

23,696

NOTES: 1.EXCLUDES NUCLEAR RATINGS AND SRB RECIPIENTS based on Spring SRB MSG.2.LOS 8-15 (YOS 7.01 – 14.99)3.Includes Time in Rate (TIR) greater than 1 year.

Population in PTS Window w/SEAOS in FY12:E7-E8: 0E6: 1,852E5: 3,700E4 666Total: 6,218

Population NOT in PTS Window with SEAOS > FY12:E7-E8: 1,612E6: 6,135E5: 9,201E4: 530Total: 17,478

EA H140 48 62 128.13% 284 235 120.85% 49 14 115.06% 5.79%

AG A410 137 208 152.04% 1095 935 117.11% 160 71 109.50% 7.61%

MMSW B130 497 803 161.52% 5225 4480 116.63% 745 306 109.80% 6.83%

GSE B121 174 236 135.74% 1300 1124 115.66% 176 62 110.13% 5.53%

FC B310 662 759 114.70% 4826 4245 113.69% 581 97 111.39% 2.29%

AS A430 275 395 143.89% 2030 1796 113.03% 234 120 106.32% 6.71%

SH B730 305 348 114.04% 2335 2099 111.24% 236 43 109.20% 2.04%

AZ A440 360 502 139.27% 2788 2517 110.77% 271 142 105.14% 5.62%

PS B710 516 614 119.04% 2926 2642 110.75% 284 98 107.03% 3.72%

AWV A550 119 143 120.61% 770 706 109.07% 64 24 105.60% 3.46%

AD A110 831 1091 131.35% 6006 5508 109.04% 498 260 104.31% 4.73%

AWR A505 233 268 115.00% 930 855 108.77% 75 35 104.68% 4.09%

AT A210 1096 1529 139.49% 8043 7414 108.48% 629 433 102.65% 5.84%

MR B250 95 105 110.24% 678 625 108.48% 53 10 106.92% 1.56%

ABF A102 235 342 145.45% 2287 2118 107.98% 169 107 102.93% 5.05%

CE H110 250 275 109.91% 1290 1196 107.86% 94 25 105.79% 2.07%

BU H100 412 428 103.95% 2468 2292 107.68% 176 16 106.97% 0.71%

AWF A530 213 252 118.45% 915 850 107.65% 65 39 103.03% 4.62%

SW H170 150 167 111.21% 834 777 107.34% 57 17 105.17% 2.17%

CM H120 367 403 109.77% 1927 1798 107.17% 129 36 105.18% 1.99%

EO H150 346 356 103.04% 1626 1520 106.97% 106 10 106.28% 0.69%

PR A450 274 331 120.97% 1709 1601 106.75% 108 57 103.16% 3.58%

UT H190 177 182 102.77% 1004 941 106.70% 63 5 106.17% 0.52%

ETSW B420 1074 1223 113.87% 6850 6451 106.19% 399 149 103.88% 2.31%

STG B340 531 611 115.03% 2980 2817 105.79% 163 80 102.95% 2.83%

RP B720 134 146 108.90% 790 752 105.05% 38 12 103.47% 1.59%

AE A200 567 772 136.10% 4383 4175 104.98% 208 205 100.08% 4.90%

AM A130 1147 1570 136.83% 7404 7070 104.72% 334 334 100.00% 4.72%

MN C160 164 192 117.21% 914 882 103.63% 32 28 100.43% 3.20%

OS B440 1122 1452 129.40% 7510 7264 103.39% 246 246 100.00% 3.39%

EMSW B210 586 604 103.10% 3731 3618 103.12% 113 18 102.62% 0.50%

MT C180 243 243 100.00% 1233 1201 102.66% 32 0 102.66% 0.00%

DC B200 484 513 106.06% 2933 2857 102.66% 76 29 101.63% 1.03%

MM(SS) C150 438 475 108.48% 2170 2114 102.65% 56 37 100.89% 1.76%

ABH A103 531 622 117.12% 4864 4764 102.10% 100 91 100.19% 1.91%

LS B740 1581 1706 107.92% 8813 8652 101.86% 161 125 100.41% 1.45%

AO A420 1187 1435 120.93% 7854 7720 101.74% 134 134 100.00% 1.74%

QM B450 373 472 126.65% 2197 2163 101.57% 34 34 100.00% 1.57%

IC B230 289 327 113.24% 2104 2078 101.25% 26 26 100.00% 1.25%

HT B220 341 402 117.81% 2374 2352 100.94% 22 22 100.00% 0.94%

AME A131 196 280 143% 1386 1379 100.51% 7 7 100.00% 0.51%

BM B400 868 1117 128.68% 5267 5247 100.38% 20 20 100.00% 0.38%

AC A400 411 467 113.75% 2460 2454 100.24% 6 6 100.00% 0.24%

ABE A101 340 397 116.73% 2692 2687 100.19% 5 5 100.00% 0.19%

RATING EMC

FY12 LOS 8-15 Spread

EPA

Enlisted Retention Board Target Population (FEB11)

NAVY

BUPERS 3ERB Quota Plan

• ECM’s reviewed Max Cut provided by B34 and recommended any changes which were not reflected in the B34 analysis.

• Eligible inventory compared to FY12 EPA.

• ECM’s reviewed LOS graphs to determine were over manning is located.

• ECM’s targeted single LOS cells to precisely target overmanned year groups.

– Resulted in more competitive groups than PERS 8 could manage in the board timeline.

• ECM’s grouped LOS cells together to reduce competitive groups and minimize potential rating damage.

• Quota plan will change based on final eligibility of 1 Aug 2011.– Advancement and exclusions will reduce total eligible but not the total separated.

21

NAVY

BUPERS 3MMSW Historical EPA Chase

8158

7460

6498

5476

5042 48734598

6949

6529

6182

57395528

5270 5112

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Historical EPA vs INV

EPA Inventory

MMSW

* EPA= Fall EPA RELEASES** Inventory Oct cut date that FY

Total

Consecutive significant decreases in EPA begin to result in overages

Current EPA to Inventory (24MAY11)514 Sailor overage in MMSW. 44% reduction in EPA since 2005

NAVY

BUPERS 3MM Rating Review

23

300 Sailors for ERB

452 Max Cut for ERB 785 Applications2 PTS Approvals68 Denied Final

ActiveMar 2011 PTS

MM 114% Manned to FY12 EPAMM 107% Manned after board

NAVY

BUPERS 3

Conversion OpportunityUndermanned Ratings

Conversion eligibility requirements waived to allow all ERB eligible Sailors maximum

opportunity to convert• Years of Service: Greater than 12 years

of service can apply• Paygrade: All personnel regardless of

paygrade can apply• PRD: Personnel with more than 12

months to PRD can apply• Minimum activity tour: No restriction for

minimum activity tour requirement• PCS: Personnel in receipt of PCS orders

can apply• OBLISERV: No restriction for Obliserv

requirements incurred as a result of reenlistment, training or other programs

24

The following ratings will accept applications for

conversion:

CS(SUB) CTR

FT HM

CTI CTT

ITS NCC

CTM ET-NAV

LS(SUB) YN(SUB)

CTN ET-RADIOMM-WEPS (SUB)

NAVY

BUPERS 3

25

Questions?