9:00 AM - 10:00 AM

Innovation Overload – Technology, Jobs and the Future

Room: Meeting Room 4

Speaker: David Smith

This is not your grandfather’s job market where one could work and retire from one company after 40

years. Your father and your company have probably not fared that well either. The fast pace of

technology change and productivity improvements, in an increasingly competitive market, have

forced companies to change their strategy, frequently upgrade and improve their products or

services, and adjust their workforce. Downsizing, outsourcing, automation, financial pressures,

short-term demands, and failed strategy all contribute to the challenges.

The pace of technology innovation is increasing so fast that many have a hard time choosing where

to focus and how to discover what is new. Most delay action and then miss the window to innovate.

The growth of complex systems and a global infrastructure has changed the decision and education

process. The ability to adapt to real-time and continuous learning will provide an advantage for

professionals of the future. A future focus and focused innovation will drive the next generations of

products and services.

This talk explores the future of work and how it impacts companies and you.

David Smith

Technology, Jobs and the Future

Work

“No other technique for the conduct of life attaches the individual so firmly to reality as laying emphasis on work:

For work at least gives one a secure place in a portion of reality, in the human community.”

Sigmund Freud

The product of work contributes to health, well-being and

economic & social stability.

Changes to the Future of Work

Source: Employment Policy Foundation analysis and

projections of Census/BLS and BEA data.

Millions of People

Expected Labor Force and Labor Force Demand

Growing Shortage of U.S. Workers

0

50

100

150

200

250

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

Labor Needed

Labor Available

Female Labor Force Participation

(as a Percent of the Female Population Age 15+),

1990-2011

Screeching to a Halt:

Growth in the Working-Age Population

Source: Deloitte Research/UN Population Division (http://esa.un.org/unpp/) : Do You Know Where Your Talent Is? Why

Acquisition and Retention Strategies Don’t Work, p.6

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Mexico Brazil India China South Australia Canada US Netherlands Spain France UK Russia Italy Japan Germany

Korea

1970-2010

2010-2050

5% 5%

-9%

18%

48%

15%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Age of Workers

Percent Growth in U.S. Population by Age: 2000-2010

Dramatically Different Patterns of Growth

by Age

1. Declining number of mid-career workers

2. Few younger

workers entering

3. Rapid growth in the over-55 workforce

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

. . . Continuing Into the Future

Age of Workers

Percent Growth in U.S. Workforce by Age: 2000-2020

7% 8% 7%

-10%

3%

73%

54%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

under 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-55 55-64 65+

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

In 2000, A Fairly “Young” World . . .

Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Percent of Population Age 60+ in 2000

. . . Rapidly Aging by 2025

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%

Percent of Population Age 60+ in 2025

1900 1950 1970 1980 1990 20001910 1920 1930 1940 1960

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

80

Source: U.S. Social Security Administration

Average Life Expectancy at Birth in the U.S.

Why? Dramatic Increase in

Life Expectancy

“Sudden” Boom in Life Expectancy

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Life Expectancy at Birth: 1000 - 2000Age

76.5

47

3836

35

30

25

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1900 2000

And a Dramatic Drop in Birth Rates

Source: Age Wave

Tota

l Fer

tilit

y R

ate

Total Fertility Rate:

3.3

2.8 2.9

3.6

2.0

2.5 2.5

4.0

5.9

2.01.7 1.7 1.6

1.4 1.3 1.2

1.8

3.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

US UK France Canada Japan Germany Italy China India

1960 2000

Why? The Baby Boom Pattern

Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Data Base

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

Birt

h in

Mill

ions

The Boom Years: 1946-1964

Skill Mismatch Ahead in the U.S.

Over the next decade, only 30% of US 20 year/olds will obtain a college degree, but 2/3’s of new jobs will require a college degree

Key skill sets will be in critically short supply:

- # students that declared their major in computer science has declined for past 4 years—now 39% lower than in 2000

- Other shortages: engineering, physical & biological sciences

A growing number of high school dropouts

Fewer high school graduates with vocational training

Labor “imports” decreasing due to security restrictions and opportunities in rapidly developing countries

When I was growing up, my parents used to say to me, "Tom, finish your dinner. People in China and India are starving."

Today I tell my girls, "Finish your homework. People in China and India are starving for your jobs."

Source: “The New York Times' Thomas Friedman on

Globalization,” CIO Magazine, March 25, 2005

—Thomas Friedman, The World is Flat

U.S. 21st Century Workforce Challenges

Chronologically older

Limited availability

Key skills lacking

Global & Virtual

Diverse

- Race

- Gender

- Age Generations

- Culture

Source: Testimony by Tamara J. Erickson to the U.S. Senate Committee on

Health, Education, Labor and Pensions

Source: Based in part on “Meeting the Challenges of

Tomorrow's Workplace,” CEO Magazine

Four generations (cultures) are being asked to coexist in the

early 21st

century workplace

“Multi-Generational” Workforce

Traditionalist Boomer Generation X Generation Y

Born: 1928-1945 Born: 1946-1964 Born: 1965-1980 Born: 1980-2000

• to disappear

• to go away

• to withdraw

Source: Webster's New Twentieth Century Dictionary

Webster's Definition of Retirement

Average Retirement Age of Males

Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies

France

64.5

59.2

65.2

60.5

64.5

60.6

66.2

62.3

66.2

62.7

66.5

63.6

67.2

Germany Italy Canada UK US Japan

1995196068

66

64

62

60

58

56

66.5

Falling Desire for Jobs

with Greater Responsibility

Source: Generation & Gender in the Workplace, An Issue Brief by Families and Work Institute

69%

41%

14%

60%54%

31%

15%

80%

Under 23 years old(Gen-Y in 2002)

23-37 years old(Gen-X in 2002)

38-57 years old(Boomers in 2002)

58 or more years old

1992

2002

Declining Desire for Jobs with Greater

Responsibility By Gender

Source: Generation & Gender in the Workplace, An Issue Brief by Families and Work Institute

52%

68%

1992 2002

Men

36%

57%

1992 2002

Women

Employees Wanting Jobs with Greater Responsibility

Lower Alignment with the Organization

4539

32

4844

28

5752

35

6561

53

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

I really care about the fate

of this organization

(agree)

I’m willing to put in effort

beyond that normally

expected to help the

organization be

successful (agree)

I find my values and the

organization’s are similar

(agree)

Y X Boomer Traditionalist

Source: The New Employee/Employer Equation, The Concours Group and Age Wave

Education Work Leisure

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Shifting the Old Work/Life Paradigm . . .

Age

Source: Demography is De$tiny,

The Concours Group and Age Wave

Education Work Leisure

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Age

80

. . . To a “Cyclic” Life Paradigm

Source: Demography is De$tiny,

The Concours Group and Age Wave

Education Work Leisure

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Age

80

. . . Evolving to a “Blended Lifestyle”

Source: Demography is Destiny,

The Concours Group and Age Wave

Cutting Back Has New Meaning: Cyclic

Work

12%

39%

49%

Working full-time Working part-time Moving back and forth

between working full-time

and not working

The most popular pattern for

working after “retirement” is

not part-time, but moving

back and forth between

periods of working and not

working.

Source: The New Employee/Employer Equation

Cutting Back Has New Meaning: Cyclic

Work

12%

39%

49%

Working full-time Working part-time Moving back and forth

between working full-time

and not working

The most popular pattern for

working after “retirement” is

not part-time, but moving

back and forth between

periods of working and not

working.

Copyright, 2011 © HBMG, Inc.

The Limits of Technology

The laws of physics

The laws of software

The challenge of algorithms

The difficulty of distribution

The problems of design

The importance of organization

The impact of economics

The influence of politics

The limits of human imagination

Fundamental

Human

The Open Economy

• New business models

based on collaboration, co-

creation & sharing

• Transparency as a normal

practice

• Conversations (two way

communication)

• Open interfaces to partners,

vendors, suppliers,

customers

• Common technology and

business standards

• Service and Experience

Mentality

Impact of Lifestyle on Health and Work

100%

0%

HE

ALT

H

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

AGE

Ideal Lifeline

Typical Lifeline

Optimal Health

Declining Health

Poor Health

Progressive and

chronic disability

What is healthy aging in the 21st century? Westendorp RGJ Am J Clin Nut

Copyright 2012@ HBMG Inc.

Copyright 2012@ HBMG Inc.

The reward for work well

done is the opportunity to

do more.

- Jonas Salk (1914 - 1995)

In Parting: Be Paranoid

“Sooner or later, something

fundamental in your business

world will change.”

Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel

“Only the Paranoid Survive”