The emergence of Web3D

The Emergence Of Web3D

Erica Driver

Principal Analyst

Forrester Research

April 25, 2008

2Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.

Theme

Interactivity + immersion = engagement, and Web3D will deliver in five to seven

years time.


Agenda

• What is Web3D?

• Web3D drivers

• We will work very differently in five to seven years.

• How we think it will all play out

• Recommendations


Agenda

• What is Web3D?

• Web3D drivers



• Recommendations


A simplified explanation of Web3D

Privatenetwork

Avatar

Internet

Serious games

Virtual worlds

Immersive workspaces

Source: Second Life (http://secondlife.com/); Virtual Heroes (http://www.virtualheroes.com/)


Forrester’s definition of Web3D

• System of linked interactive 3-D and 2-D environments

• People will be able to move among these environments in a seamless, natural way.

• Will deliver an interactive, immersive experience

• People will be represented visually by avatars that can move in space and communicate with others.

• Will integrate with Web 1.0 and Web 2.0 tools and technologies as well as business software apps

The next major wave in the Internet’s evolution


Agenda

• What is Web3D?

• Web3D drivers



• Recommendations


What’s propelling Web3D forward?

• Relentless focus on innovation

• Rising expectations due to Technology Populism and Social Computing

• A changing workforce that requires a technology refresh

• Investor, vendor, and early adopter activity

• Med students learn interaction skills just as well in virtual environments as in physical ones


Investor, vendor, and early adopter activity

• $1.5 billion invested in virtual world companies in five quarters from Q4 2006-Q4 2007

• Early adopters: BP, Cisco, IBM, Intel, Michelin


Med students learn interaction skills just as well in virtual environments as in physical ones

Source: Parvati Dev, W. LeRoy Heinrichs, Laura Kusumuto, and Patricia Youngblood, “Virtual Worlds and Team Training,” Anesthesiology Clinics, Volume 25 , Issue 2

Mean student scores

Pre-test and post-test student scores


Agenda

• What is Web3D?

• Web3D drivers



• Recommendations


Teach, learn, and practice in a way that feels “real”

Source: Virtual Heroes

Training medical students and professionals


Use new methods to teach complex concepts

Source: Michelin Group enterprise architecture island in Second Life

Teaching enterprise architects how to build road maps


Collaborate on information in new ways

8 images24 meters

36 meters 12 images

Source: Gus Rosania, PhD; University of Michigan College of Pharmacy

Analyzing complex data for drug discovery process


Interact with colleagues in virtual workspacesAttending a conference “in-world”

Source: snapshot taken in a Multiverse session during Life 2.0 conference


Build or import and share 3-D designs and models

Source: Flickr, Studio Wikitecture (http://www.flickr.com/photos/studiowikitecture)

Studio Wikitecture: collaborative architecture


Manage projects in bottom-up ways

Source: Flickr, Claudia Linden (http://www.flickr.com/photos/claudialinden/2106802302/)

Studio Wikitecture’s wiki tree


Transform presentations into tours

Source: Palomar West island in Second Life (http://www.pph.org/media.aspx?news=196)

Hospital of the future: Palomar West


Manage complex real-world systems remotely

Source: EOLUS One island in Second Life

Implenia facilities operations center


Agenda

• What is Web3D?

• Web3D drivers



• Recommendations


Evolution of the multidimensional Web

Immersive

Interactive

Static

Text UI

Basic graphical

UI

Rich, interactive

graphical UI

3-D digital experience

Hybrid virtual/real-

world experience

Pre-Web Internet

World Wide Web

Web 2.0

Web3D

WebXD

Inte

ract

ivit

y

Richness of user experience


Today (2008)

Technology maturity Adoption Gating factors

•Dozens of vendors •Few virtual worlds used for work open to the public

•Lack of standards•A few virtual worlds support standard 3-D content creation tools.

•Dearth of easy to use 3-D content creation tools

•Little integration with business software applications

•Serious games in use

•Early-stage experimentation in businesses for team collaboration, meetings, conferences, recruiting

•Ease of content creation•Troublesome interfaces and poor avatar control mechanisms

• Inability to use content in whichever virtual environment you want

•Embedded IP protection for copy, transfer, and modify

•Computers with inadequate graphics cards, processing power

•Corporate IT security policies may restrict access to Web3D until implications are better understood.


In three to four years (2011–2012)


• 100s or 1,000s of tech vendors selling Web3D solutions or SaaS

•Lots of open source projects focusing on various technical components

•Intensive experimentation

•Examples emerge of enterprisewide rollouts

•Innovative control devices and interfaces available

•Shift in perception of immersive workspaces, serious games, and virtual worlds

•Lack of widely adopted standards resulting in continued lack of interoperability

•New and improved interface components and control metaphors still not common

•Fuzziness about IP rights for objects people create

• Inability to prevent violations of IP rules through technical means

•Security


In five to seven years (2013–2015)


•Market has thinned out — just a handful of technology vendors identified as leaders

•Standards widely adopted•People can access multiple 3-D sites, virtual worlds, serious games, and other applications with a single avatar.

•Web3D sites and apps commonplace

• Innovative organizations achieve breakthrough competitive advantage

•Control metaphor enables seamless usage of Web3D as it becomes a vital business tool

• Identity: impersonation, identity theft

•Governance: Who rules and polices a virtual world? How do taxes work in a global virtual world? How about employment law and dispute resolution?


Next-generation interface devices

Hillcrest Labs Freespace “The Loop”

Source: Hillcrest Labs

Logitech MX Air Rechargeable Cordless

Air Mouse

Source: Logitech

Source: Seeing Machines

Seeing Machines faceLAB


Agenda

• What is Web3D?

• Web3D drivers



• Recommendations


Recommendations (1:2)

• Apply Web3D concepts to innovation strategies.

• Experiment with Web3D in areas like training and simulation or collaboration.

• Conduct internal Web3D workshops and seminars.

• Include Web3D in revised Web 2.0 policies.


Recommendations (2:2)

• Develop Information Workplace strategies that include Web3D concepts.

• Work with infrastructure and operations to upgrade your hardware and the network.

• Talk now with Security & Risk professionals to understand their concerns.

• Grill the vendors on their interoperability strategy.

• Join industry consortia to network and learn more.


Erica Driver

+1 401.592.0170

[email protected]

www.forrester.com

Blog: http://blogs.forrester.com/information_management/

Thank you

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The emergence of Web3D