Suzanne Nottage - Decisions-in- progress and 20,000 reasons why you should care

Decisions-‐in-‐progressand 20,000 reasons why you should care

Suzanne Nottage

26 April 2016

Please sit up the front (it helps our activity) J

3 © 2015 CA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Why are we here? Hands up


Agenda

Source:http://www.themotherco.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2012/05/Frustration_2.0-‐881x499.jpg

“What’s the problem?”

“How can Agile / Scrum / Lean help us make better decisions?”

“How can we help our people /

teams to make better decisions?”


“Organisations are decision-‐making factories”

Source: http://cdn.wonderfulengineering.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2013/11/factory-‐wallpaper-‐2-‐798x350.jpg


We often decide by “thin slicing”, which is good but bad

Source:

likes, dislikes

unconscious biases

stereotypingprejudices


Our decision-‐making process is sometimes “corrupted”

Source: http://www.vectorfreebie.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2016/01/Heart-‐Sketch.pnghttp://4.bp.blogspot.com/-‐GXOy6NJ7Pmk/TwoN39V7yfI/AAAAAAAAEGI/HtWJh3STDPQ/s1600/operahousesketchbydavidjack.jpghttps://s-‐media-‐cache-‐ak0.pinimg.com/736x/40/05/a7/4005a76193de7788886ea0d0339284f8.jpg

Canberra

Sydney

Perth

Melbourne

Brisbane

London

Adelaide

Darwin

Hobart Auckland


The first step is admitting you have a problem

Source:


Decisions-‐in-‐progress (DIP) are like work-‐in-‐progress (WIP)

Source: http://www.domusweb.it/content/dam/domusweb/en/news/2015/06/08/carsten_holler_decision/domus-‐01-‐holler-‐decis ion.jpg


Low DIP means high flow (thru’put)

Source: https://static-‐secure.guim.co.uk/sys-‐images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2009/11/2/1257167787984/1960-‐A-‐car-‐turns-‐off-‐the-‐-‐016.jpg

11 © 2015 CA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.Source: http://s3.scoopwhoop.com/anj/No_cars/618340655.jpg

High DIP leads to low flow of decisions (throughput)


High DIP leads to bottlenecks and compounding delays

Source: https://campustocareer.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/flight-‐delayed.jpg


Unplanned work & decisions kills flow & eat up capacity

Source: http://www.tragic-‐christian.org/.a/6a00d83455629c69e2017ee3bf0b88970d-‐pi


Unplanned work increases decisions & reduces thru’put

Source:

32

21

4

18

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3

Planned cards delivered Unplanned cards delivered


Smaller batches àmake decisions more frequently

Source: http://www.businesstraveller.com/files/News-‐images/Qantas/Qantas-‐A380-‐780.jpg, http://www.moneymorning.com.au/wp-‐content/uploads/2014/06/qantas-‐plane-‐flight.jpg


Steady flow of decisions improves stability & predictability

Source:https://media.apnarm.net.au/img/media/images/2015/04/19/SCN_20-‐04-‐2015_EGN_04_SCN190415TRAFFIC02%20fade_fct1024x768x420.0_ct620x465.jpg


Are your decisions flowing or stop:start?

Source:

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

4/14/15

4/21/15

4/28/15

5/5/15

5/12/15

5/19/15

5/26/15

6/2/15

6/9/15

6/16/15

6/23/15

6/30/15

7/7/15

All Trains -‐ Features CFD – Release 3

Done In Progress To Do

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4/7/15

4/14/15

4/21/15

4/28/15

5/5/15

5/12/15

5/19/15

5/26/15

6/2/15

6/9/15

6/16/15

6/23/15

6/30/15

All Trains -‐ Story Count CFD – Release 3

Done Ready To Validate In Progress To Do Blocked


Further reading on decisions

http://zsoltbabocsai.org/wp-‐content/uploads/2013/10/predictably-‐irrational-‐342x500-‐205x300.jpg


“As sober irrational as a judge”

Source: http://www.economist.com/node/18557594


Takeaway action

Source:

Action:

Map a (simple) process & identify the cycle time for decisions

Why?

Delays represent a significant ‘waste’ in many processes

Metric:

Lead time (from idea to customer)


Problem: “We have too many decisions to make”

Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/10/Florida_Gopher_Tortoise.jpg


“Established & well-‐known decision-‐making framework”

Source:


SECAR: Simplify, Eliminate, Combine, Automate, Relocate

Source: http://www.portalsoin.com.br/wp-‐content/uploads/2010/11/secar_premium_02.jpg


Simplify: Kanban boards: WIP limits & lane definitions

Source: Picture courtesy of client


Simplify: consistent user story format

Source: http://www.romanpichler.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2013/03/ConstraintStory.jpg


Simplify: standardise decisions, where possible

Source:


Eliminate: 3 types of decisions (and work)

Source: http://influitive.com/wp-‐content/uploads/three-‐pie-‐chart.jpg

necessary non-‐value add

value add non value-‐add

runners

repeaters

rarities


Roughly right vs. analysis paralysis

Source: http://img.timeinc.net/time/magazine/archive/covers/1965/1101651231_400.jpg


Short decision-‐making lead time reduces Cost of Delay

Source: http://i2.wp.com/blackswanfarming.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2014/03/short-‐horizon-‐reduced-‐peak-‐urgency-‐curve.png


Type 1 vs. Type 2 thinking (and decisions)

Source: http://footage.framepool.com/shotimg/152416915-‐dimple-‐upward-‐ inspiration-‐concept-‐undershirt.jpg

optimism bias

anchoring effect

loss aversionsunk cost


Prioritise epics/features relatively: value, urgency, size

Source:http://www.agileadvice.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2013/07/The-‐Bucket-‐System-‐600x176.png


Prioritise using an economic framework

Source:

§ Use Weighted Shortest Job First (WSJF)

§ Relatively compare features: cost of delay ÷ job size

§ Prioritise delivery based on highest WSJF (common sense check)

User/Business Value + Urgency + RR/OE* ValueJob Size

WSJF =

*RR/OE = Risk reduction / opportunity enablement


Automate (+ a common sense check)

Source:

Minimise time spent deciding “no brainers”

Each column must have at least one “1”. You may use numbers more than once. Use the standard story point values: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20.

FeatureUser /

Business Value

Urgency RR/OE Value

Cost of

DelayJob Size WSJF

Implement 24/7 processing 13 8 8 29 3 9.6

Accept payments in USD 1 1 2 4 1 4

Self-service by providers 3 1 2 6 2 3

Single sign-on 1 1 1 3 2 1.5

Payment via PayPal 8 3 13 22 2 11

+ + = =÷


Combine: Big Room Planning – the secret sauce

Source: www.rallydev.com

20,000 decisions~500 people

2 days


An Agile platform for portfolio-‐level decision making

Source:


Automate: “I’m trying to pare down decisions” -‐ Obama

Source: http://media.nbcchicago.com/images/1200*900/obama+suit-‐640.jpghttps://cdn1.vox-‐cdn.com/thumbor/4mFlTD8G3WLITcvNILqIjxvLGTo=/0x40:2038x1399/1280x854/cdn0.vox-‐cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/48636121/zuckcloset.0.0.jpg

“I don’t want to make decisions about what I’m

eating or wearing. Because I have too

many other decisions to make.”


Relocate: Centralised vs. de-‐centralised

Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a4/Parliament_House,_Canberra,_Pano_jjron_25.9.2008-‐edit1.jpg

economies of scale

infrequentnot time critical

need local input

frequenttime critical


Why? Free up non value-‐adding time for innovation

Source: Provided courtesy of friend


Avoid context switching: let the teams focus on their work

Source: http://images.veer.com/stock-‐photos/do-‐not-‐multitask-‐sticky-‐note-‐10566717.jpg


Activity: context switching is costly and error prone

Source:

Workstream 1:

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

Workstream 2:

Alpha, Bravo, Charlie, Delta, Echo, Foxtrot, Golf, Hotel, India, Juliet

Workstream 3:

Clap 1x, clap 2x, clap 3x, clap 4x, clap 5x, clap 6x, clap 7x, clap 8x, clap 9x, clap 10x.


Further reading – snap decisions

Source: http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/1505/1307/1600/blink.jpg


Takeaway action

Source:

Action:

Use SECAR on decision-‐making activities

Why?

Reduce cost of delay, prioritise objectively, bias towards smaller / higher value work

Metric:

Capacity of system to deliver (story points per Release)


Problem “How can our teams make better decisions?”

Source: http://www.valeofglamorgan.gov.uk/Images/Unsorted/library-‐2/diversegroup.jpg


Create cognitively diverse teams

Source:


“[Cognitively] diverse teams make better decisions”

Source: https://jerue.org/wp-‐content/uploads/2016/01/Rey-‐In-‐Star-‐Wars.jpg

“A person’s value depends on her

ability to improve the collective

decision.” – Juliet Bourke


6 lenses of problem solving & diverse teams

Source: http://cdn.meaningfullife.org/wp-‐content/uploads/2014/10/looking-‐through-‐a-‐lens.jpg

evidence

optionsoutcomes

riskpeopleprocess


What makes teams ‘smart’?

Source: http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ff160db409c27975a834e88f6e4e64d2?width=650

communicationequal participationemotion-‐reading


Innovation behaviours

Source: http://jilltoyoshiba.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2013/04/wGreenSlide.jpg

everyone is heardsafe to propose new ideasdecision-‐making authorityshare creditgive actionable feedbackimplement team’s feedback


Takeaway action

Source:

Action:

Build long-‐lived, cross-‐functional teams around ability and cognitive diversity

Why?

Improved decision-‐making, productivity and innovation

Metric:

Team size, lead time, WIP


Create a high-‐performing team

Source:


Thank you & questions

Source: http://heartsconverse.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2012/04/Black-‐woman-‐thinking.jpg


ROTI – return on time invested (this session)

Source: http://blogs.adobe.com/agile/files/2013/12/hands-‐counting.jpghttps://s-‐media-‐cache-‐ak0.pinimg.com/736x/4e/5c/f7/4e5cf7d4ccb9c59b6620a9c71944d51e.jpghttps://dq9ucdqjq6nrk.cloudfront.net/wp-‐content/uploads/2014/02/01_sad_emoticon-‐300x269.jpghttps://s-‐media-‐cache-‐ak0.pinimg.com/736x/e9/9b/54/e99b541789969921ebd0110309a35f63.jpg

Senior Principal Transformation [email protected]

Suzanne Nottage

Suzanne.Nottage

Suzanne Nottage