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Next  Genera*on  Considera*ons  for  the  Commercial  Space  Market  

Canadian  Space  Summit  Commercializa*on  Session  

November  21,  2010  

By:    Farnaz  Ghadaki  –  Marke;ng  Consultant;    Delegate,  SGC2010;  Director,  CSCA  

Outline

•  About SGAC and SGC2010 •  “Industry” Assessment Overview •  Launching Industry

– Strengths – Weaknesses – Opportunities – Threats

•  Recommendations •  Video (clip)

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About SGAC (Space Generation Advisory Council)

•  Non-profit organisation of advanced students and young professionals, age 18 – 35

•  Conceived at the Third United Nations Conference (July 1999) on the Exploration and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNISPACE III): -  Product was the Vienna Declaration where the States

resolved “To create, within the framework of the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, a consultative mechanism to facilitate the continued participation of young people from all over the world, especially young people from developing countries and young women, in cooperative space-related activities…”

•  Over 90 countries are represented by 60 National Points of Contact as of 2010

•  SGAC has a volunteer network of ~4,000 members 3

About SGAC

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•  Has held permanent observer status in the UN COPUOS since 2001, and has been a member of the UN Economic and Social Council since 2003

•  Headquartered in Vienna, Austria, and hosted by the European Space Policy Institute

Purpose: •  Create a global volunteer base of advanced students and

young professionals in the space sector who have a passion for making a difference and a commitment to action

•  Connect them to each other and to top space professionals and organisations

•  Give the youth a voice in global space policy

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Space Generation Congress

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•  SGAC hosted its 9th Annual Space Generation Congress (SGC) in Prague, Czech Republic, from September 23 - 25, 2010

•  100 delegates were chosen (from approx. 220 applicants) from 40 countries

•  5 working groups discussed, analyzed and made recommendations on topics of: Agency, Climate, Exploration, Industry, and Outreach

•  Final report is being presented to UNCOPUOS and to industry, agency, and academic organizations that collaborate with SGAC

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Industry Group - The New, Increased Role of Industry in the Space Sector

•  PURPOSE: To raise awareness among the general public and decision makers about private aspects of space activities and the potential for successful development; representing voice of next generation

•  The group consisted of 18 participants: -  Representing 15 countries: Belarus, Belgium, Canada,

Iran, Italy, Japan, Finland, Mexico, Philippines, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, UK, USA

-  With wide range of expertise incl. business, engineering, finance, journalism, law, marketing, policy, and PR

-  SMEs from Space Frontier Foundation and SpaceWorks •  Pre-reading material included 17 articles (~80 pages) •  Group spent ~15 hrs over 3 days discussing, analyzing,

and coming up with recommendations

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Assessment Overview

•  Categorization – brainstormed current & possible private ventures, grouped in 3: –  Space Applications – current: remote sensing,

microgravity tech/sciences, utilization of ISS, satellite telecom’s, and GNSS; new: space tourism, in-orbit services, manufacturing in space,..

–  Resource Utilization – mining of celestial bodies, space solar power, geostationary orbit Mg’t

–  Launching

•  Methodology: SWOT Analysis –  Focused on Launch Industry

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Assessment Overview

•  Factors considered: –  Legal, public policy, ethics & implications on space

agencies –  Technical & engineering: incl. mobility, flexibility, and

transferability to other non-space applications –  Economic & social: incl. capital, financing, profitability,

employment & resource management –  Marketability, competitiveness, public perception and

media involvements –  Collaboration opportunities that encompass agencies,

academia, and the symbiosis among the university R&D / industry

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Launching - SWOT STRENGTHS

•  Sovereign Right To Access To Space

•  Policy Commitment •  Steady Growth •  Independence

WEAKNESSES •  Safety/Reliability •  Import/Export Ctrl Regulations •  Lack of Global Space Traffic

Management •  Diverse Global Technological/

Education (Un) Readiness

OPPORTUNITIES •  Encouraging Innovation

Through Competition •  Shared Liability W/ Gov’t •  Financial Transparency &

Accountability •  Advancement of Mankind

THREATS •  Supply & Demand Issues •  Kessler Effect •  Regulatory Changes in

International Law •  (UN) Responsible Use of

Space Commercialization

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Launching - Strengths

•  Sovereign Right to Access to Space –  Enabling almost every country to reach their intrinsic

right of going to space by providing less expensive access ($50M Falcon9 vs $90-$100M Proton)

Global Space Activity, 2009

•  Steady Growth Acc. to Space Foundation’s Space Report 2010, aggregate 2009 revenue for commercial space infrastructure (being 32% of space economy) = $83.63 B. Private launching expected to bring in even more revenue.

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Launching - Strengths

•  Policy Commitment –  US National Space Policy 2010 emphasizes the

importance of commercial sector and its development –  Competition may lower the cost to reach space and

even spur the development of new space applications •  Independence

–  Private space co’s free to pursue any business model –  Drive new technologies, hardware, innovation that are

not anticipated by governmental actors, AND faster –  Enable new ways to extract benefits from technology

already in place: e.g. develop and rent orbital labs, orbital hotels, satellites servicing facilities

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Launching - Weaknesses

•  Safety/Reliability in Space Transportation –  Successful experimental launches does not mean

commercial space transportation is safe –  Service providers asking customers to waive possible

claims that may result from a private spaceflight •  Import/Export Control Regulations (e.g. ITAR)

–  Currant national export controls harm the private sector more than they serve the country’s interest

–  Nations cannot compete on a global market just because they cannot get their product or service legally and/or in timely fashion

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Launching - Weaknesses

•  Lack of Global Space Traffic Management –  More launches performed each yr w/ more payloads –  No Global Space Traffic Management System is in

place to ensure collision avoidance, improve utility of GEO, decrease congestion of other “popular” orbits, and increase safety of human spaceflight missions

•  Global Technological/Education (Un) Readiness –  Considerable technological and educational gap that

grows among the developed and developing countries –  Lack of political vision, committed public budgets to

develop the national intellectual capacity and the inexperience

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Launching - Opportunities

•  Encouraging innovation through competition: –  New market created based on private property,

freedom of enterprise, and competition (vs. monopoly) –  Corporate profit/success drive technological

advances, production improvements, and process innovations – thus providing competitive advantage

–  Decrease $/Kg price

•  Advancement of Mankind –  Goal of reliable & affordable access to space enables

advancement in exploration, new markets/apps (e.g. P2P transportation), & improvement in quality of life

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Launching - Opportunities

•  Shared Liability With Government –  As per Outer Space Treaty, the launching State of a

private commercial endeavor is the ultimate subject of responsibility and liability

–  Shared liability provides assurance to commercial space venture and is a factor that ensures safety

•  Financial Transparency and Accountability –  Promoted by strict enforcement of accounting rules

and regulations for publically traded companies –  Both investors and regulators can evaluate the state

of the companies involved

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Launching - Threats

•  Supply and Demand Issue –  Demand in some ancillary markets (suborbital ‘space

tourism’, P2P transportation) is hard to anticipate & may exceed projected interest of general public

–  Possible failures at early stages affecting demand •  The Kessler Effect

–  Scenario in which the density of objects (useful and space junk) in low earth orbit is high enough that collisions between objects could cause a cascade

–  This poses a real & considerable threat to launching sector in its entirety (governmental and commercial)

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Launching - Threats

•  Regulatory Changes in International Law –  Prohibition of appropriation of celestial bodies leaves

ventures w/ no practical incentive to exploit resources –  No established intern’l regime of utilization of space

resources = unclear destiny of materials brought back –  Delegation of jurisdiction & control over space objects

to State of their registry hinders space junk managm’t •  (UN)Responsible use of Space Commercializ’n

–  many feel that all space exploration should be in the interests & for the benefit of all – this may not always be in congruence with private, commercial enterprise

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Recommendations: 1.  Proper laws and regulations are set (or

decreased, in the case of ITAR) –  As stated in the 2009 Report of the Review of

U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee –  To encourage international partnerships

among space agencies and companies –  To help increase demand and harbour new

technologies –  To increase and accelerate access to space,

whether it is a scientific, commercial or recreational in nature

–  To address ethical and safety issues (e.g. manage/control space debris)

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Recommendations: 2.  More nations/agencies to enable

commercialization of space by pursuing social benefits through the sustained political, economical and technological support

–  Maintain robust economy that enables innovation, and support industry development

–  Support collaboration between networks & industry to stimulate commercialization of science & technology research (both spin-in & spin-out)

–  Identify skill shortage and training needs and invest in education & skill development programs

–  Build competitve regions via initiatives that stimulate local economy

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Recommendations: 3.  Prizes & Awards: foster innovation, stimulate

competition & promote development of private space industry

a.  S-Pace Prize: a competition for the best new commercially viable space-related business plan. Feed into the already established Space Frontier Foundation NewSpace Business Plan Competition

b.  S-Pace Award: credit best person/group/project for the best advancement towards space utilization

c.  Pro-commercialization (of space) event, as forum for S-Pace Prize and the S-Pace Award as well as other pro-commercialization outreach activities and projects

These would be set up by SGAC and/or other groups

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Recommendations: 4.  Networks to leverage/optimize resources

a.  Knowledge-Transfer Network: to encourage retiring space professionals to consult/advise emerging space nations/organizations –  transfer knowledge, skills, expertise; a secure DB of

interested parties could be created and maintained b.  Dedicated PR/Media Network: bringing together

(or otherwise coordinate) different means of media worldwide dedicated specifically to cover or to address issues of (commercialization of) space

These could be set up by SGAC which has broad access to networks and resources, incl through its partners: NASA, Secure World Foundation, Lockheed Martin and ESA

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Recommendations: 5.  SGAC Lobbying for NewSpace as a Strategic

Activity –  consider adding global lobbying for the

promotion and development of commercial space as one of its primary activities for next years’ strategic development plan

–  SGAC already has a voice in policy via supporting UN Action Teams, UN COPUOS, and UN OOSA

–  SGAC should be not only the voice of young people on international arena but also be the active advocate for NewSpace itself

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Recommendations: 6.  Strengthen public perception and increase

education through media & entertainment –  Leverage celebrities interested in space, e.g.

those rumored to have purchased Virgin Galactic flights

–  Enhance space image via prizes for artistic depiction of space-theatre, film, music, fashion

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Space  Genera*on  Advisory  Council  

Promo*onal  Video  (Clip)  YouTube ‘From Sputnik, to Today, to Tomorrow’

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwZf-QsnmrQ produced  by  Art  Anisimov  and  Andrew  Bacon  

www.spacegeneration.org