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These slides are from a webinar presented by BKV's media and analytic experts.
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Scientific Attribution: Maximizing Digital ROI
July 26th, 2012#SciAttribution
Your webinar hosts from BKV…
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VP, Analytics Director
Marketing Analytics practitioner for
16+ years
Dave Mundo
SVP, Chief Digital Officer
Over 15 years in Media Strategy and Optimization
Raphael Rivilla
BKV at a glance…
Founded in 1981• Full-service direct and interactive agency• Full-time staff of 130
Billings of $150 million• B2B and B2C experience• Launched mobile division in 2009
Two offices• Atlanta• Kansas City
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BKV offers a full suite ofAnalytics solutions
Marketing Mix Analysis
Predictive Modeling
Clickpath Analysis
Loyalty Analytics
Scientific Attribution
Scientific Attribution Agenda
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What is Attribution?
Scientific Attribution Does it work? Getting started
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What is Attribution?
Scientific Attribution Does it work? Getting started
• Defining attribution
• Traditional attribution models
• What are marketers using?
Continued growth in digital marketing spend is spurring interest in ROI measurement
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$32
$40 $47
$53 $58
$62 U.S Online Ad Spend (in billions)*
7 *Source: eMarketer, Jan 2012
----------------------------Estimated ----------------------------
Diversification of channels is a major trend in digital marketing
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
Search Banner Ads Classifieds/DirectoriesVideo Rich Media Other
U.S Online Ad Spend by Channel (in billions)
----------------------------Estimated ----------------------------
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Conversion
Social Media
Ad
Non-Brand
Keyword Search
Network
Banner
Brand Keyword Search
Email Ad
Attribution assigns credit for conversions
Affiliate
Lays foundation for digital media
ROI measurement
OptimizesBudget
Increases ROI
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Current approaches to attribution rely on the marketer to assign credit
Shared Credit Attribution
Last - Click Attribution
First - Click Attribution
Recency - Based Attribution
100% credit
100% credit
25% credit 25% credit 25% credit 25% credit
10% credit 20% credit 30% credit 40% credit
Which attribution method do webinar attendees use?
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Algorithmic/Scientific
Custom Rules/Shared Credit
First Click/Last Click
None
Not Sure/Other
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Which attribution method do you use?
Most digital marketers are using “traditional” attribution – or no attribution at all!
12 *Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau – Digital Attribution Comes of Age
IAB Poll*: which attribution method do you use?
Other
Algorithmic / Scientific
Recency-Based
Shared Credit
First or Last Click
None
1%
11%
17%
17%
30%
44%
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What is Attribution? Scientific Attribution Does it work? Getting started
• Why do we need it?
• How does it work?
• How is it implemented?
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Current approaches to attribution rely on the marketer to assign credit
Shared Credit Attribution
Last - Click Attribution
First - Click Attribution
Recency - Based Attribution
100% credit
100% credit
25% credit 25% credit 25% credit 25% credit
10% credit 20% credit 30% credit 40% credit
Ignores Everything After First Click
Everything Is Ignored Except Last Click
Arbitrary Constants Used Throughout
Lacks Reasoning and Extremely Subjective
DisplayDisplay
Our understanding of channel-level performance is distorted by current attribution
Conversion
Search
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Display Media
• Primarily an assist media
• Generates very few clicks
Paid Search
• Primarily a converter
• Generates many clicks
Advanced attribution approaches need to address limitations of traditional methods
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Traditional
Advanced
Solution
Uses incomplete view & click data
Utilize all available data
Requires marketer bias
Rely on data to drive results
Easy to implement
Recent advances are enabling scientific attribution for advertisers and agencies
Scientific Attribution Vendors
Demand for more precise online ad spend ROI
Availability of granular data
Advanced modeling techniques
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Independent studies confirm the rising tide of scientific attribution
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“Since 2009…the market has gained momentum”
“Algorithmic attribution [is] helping value marketing efforts, identify and eliminate waste, and optimize media plans…to boost ROI”
Forrester: Q2 2012 Interactive Attribution Vendors
“Last click still survives but we see accelerating momentum to cast it aside and implement interactive attribution”
“Benefits for digital marketers include[…]improved multichannel measurement, data-driven spending and strategy decisions, and media buying leverage”
“44% of interactive marketers don’t have processes in place to assign credit to their efforts, indicating that adoption of attribution has room to grow”
IAB: Digital Attribution Comes Of Age
Scientific Attribution delivers on the promise of full funnel measurement
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Purchase
DisplayEmail
Purchase
SearchDisplay
Purchase
Social
Rich Media
Search Display Search
All touch points are accounted for – credit for purchases can be appropriately assigned
A scientific approach to attribution yields better results
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• BKV manages millions in online ad spend each year • We understand the challenges of online media
optimization
Advertising expertise
• Dedicated Analytics team builds custom models to understand true value of media channels
Customized statistical approach
• No prior assumptions are made• Results reflect the impact of each channel on
purchases
Unbiased results
A statistical model unearths relationships between a set of factors and a response
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User Search
B No
C Yes
D No
Purchase?
No
Yes
No
Display
No
No
A Yes YesYes
E Yes YesYes
Moderate Predictor
Strong Predictor
Yes
Scientific Attribution also incorporates non-media factors that play a role in purchase behavior
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Media channels
Landing page
Industry changes
Geographical location
Time of day/ Day of week
Competition
Seasonal effects
Understanding (and potentially controlling) non-media factors helps boost optimization
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• Determine which landing pages drive conversions
• Optimize and test based on results
Landing Page
• Key understanding of advertiser’s business• Develop a seasonally-adjusted media strategy
Seasonal Effects
• Discover which states respond to different channels/messages
• Increase geo-targeting efficiencyGeography
Scientific attribution should be continuously improved through collaboration
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Data collection
Attribution Modeling
Channel optimization
Performance reporting
Client/media team
feedback
Analytics + Database
Analytics
Analytics + MediaMedia
Media/Client Services/Analytics
Ease of use is critical for a successful implementation
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+ budget
+ budget
- budget
Media Channel Last-click CPS Scientific Attribution CPS Change
Search #1 Brand $24 $29 -21%
Search #1 Non-Brand $58 $36 38%
Search #2 Brand $22 $23 -5%
Search #2 Non-Brand $48 $29 40%
Network 1 $87 $94 -8%
Network 2 $105 $76 28%
Network 3 $65 $43 34%
Network 4 $41 $25 39%
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What is Attribution? Scientific Attribution Does it work? Getting started
BKV’s integrated approach to attribution proved useful for a major Telecom client
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Goal: increase media efficiency and identify valuable “assist” keywords
Solution: scientific attribution model, focusing on ease of implementation
Result: more efficient media buys
BKV’s integrated approach to attribution proved useful for a major Telecom client
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• Discuss objectives and goals with client
• Collect/process appropriate data
• Determine most appropriate modeling structure & approach
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• Build custom model for client
• Extensive testing process to verify model findings
• Create actionable recommendations based on modeling results
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• Implement Scientific Attribution
• Report on findings over several weeks to gauge impact
• Initiate refinements for future iterations
Scientific Attribution delivered tangible results upon implementation
2% daily spend
increase
22% daily orders
increase
16% cost per sale
decrease
Scientific Attribution implementation results
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Scientific Attribution will continue to grow and evolve
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Understanding mobile marketing ROI
Determining the value of social media presence
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What is Attribution? Scientific Attribution Does it work? Getting started
Utilize customized attribution solutionsto meet your specific needs
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You want… You might consider…
To understand your online funnel and determine your
attribution needsClickPath Analysis
To efficiently allocate budget across online media Scientific Attribution
A comprehensive tool for allocating marketing dollars
(offline/online)Scientific Attribution /
Marketing Mix Analysis
Scientific Attribution success relies advance planning
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1 Verify that all your online marketing is being tracked and that cookie-level data is available
2 Identify a partner for statistical modeling – with extensive media optimization and analytics experience
3 Create a detailed plan for implementation, including a process for continual improvement
Scientific Attribution is a crucial component of an online media strategy
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Traditional methods fall short
Scientific attribution not biased accurate
Industry-wide move to better attribution
Case studies show strong results
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For questions and inquiries, please contact:
• Raphael Rivilla, Chief Digital [email protected]
• Dave Mundo, VP [email protected]
• Rina Cook, Director of Business [email protected]
Thank you!
