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Scientific Attribution: Maximizing Digital ROI

Dave MundoVP, Analytics Director

@davemundo

BKV is a full service agency helping clients since 1981

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BKV offers a full suite ofAnalytics solutions

Marketing Mix Analysis

Predictive Modeling

Advanced Analytics Reports

Loyalty Analytics

Scientific Attribution

Scientific Attribution Agenda

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What is Digital

Attribution?

Scientific Digital

AttributionDoes it work? Getting

started

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What is Digital

Attribution?

Scientific Digital

AttributionDoes it work? Getting

started

• Defining attribution

• Traditional attribution models

• What are marketers using?

Continued growth in digital marketing spend is spurring interest in ROI measurement

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$32

$40

$47 $53

$58 $62

U.S Online Ad Spend (in billions)*

6 *Source: eMarketer, Jan 2012

----------------------------Estimated ----------------------------

Diversification of channels is a major trend in digital marketing

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

Search Banner Ads Classifieds/DirectoriesVideo Rich Media Other

U.S Online Ad Spend by Channel (in billions)

----------------Estimated ----------------

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Email

Online

Banner Ad

TV Ad

Online Search Personal

Recommenda

tion

Coupon!Local Liquor

Store Guy

Website

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Conversion

Social Media Ad

Non-Brand

Keyword

Search

Network Banner

Brand Keyword Search

Email Ad

Attribution assigns credit for conversions

AffiliateLays foundation for digital media

ROI measurement

Optimizes

Budget

Increases ROI

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Current approaches to attribution rely on the marketer to assign credit

Shared Credit Attribution

Last - Click Attribution

First - Click Attribution

Recency - Based Attribution

100% credit

100% credit

25% credit 25% credit 25% credit 25% credit

10% credit 20% credit 30% credit 40% credit

Poll: Which attribution method do you use?

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First/Last ClickShared CreditRecency-BasedAlgorithmic/ScientificOtherNone

Most digital marketers are using “traditional” attribution – or no attribution at all!

12 *Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau – Digital Attribution Comes of Age

IAB Poll*: which attribution method do you use?

Other

Algorithmic / Scientific

Recency-Based

Shared Credit

First or Last Click

None

1%

11%

17%

17%

30%

44%

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What is Digital

Attribution?

Scientific Digital

AttributionDoes it work? Getting

started

• Why do we need it?

• How does it work?

• How is it implemented?

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Current methods assign credit in a biased and arbitrary way

Shared Credit Attribution

Last - Click Attribution

First - Click Attribution

Recency - Based Attribution

100% credit

100% credit

25% credit 25% credit 25% credit 25% credit

10% credit 20% credit 30% credit 40% credit

Ignores Everything After First Click

Everything Is Ignored Except Last Click

Constant Weights Used Throughout

Subjective, for those with “Last Click Separation Anxiety”

DisplayDisplay

Our understanding of channel-level performance is distorted by current attribution

Conversion

Search

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Display Media

• Primarily an assist media

• Generates very few clicks

Paid Search

• Primarily a converter

• Generates many clicks

Advanced attribution approaches need to address limitations of traditional methods

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Traditional Advanced Solution

Uses incomplete view

& click data

Utilize all available data

Ad Server data logs

Requires marketer

bias

Rely on data to drive results

Statistical Analysis

Easy to implement

Maintain implementation

ease

Integrate findings with media buying

Recent advances are enabling data-driven attribution for advertisers and agencies

Data-Driven

Attribution Vendors

Demand for more precise online ad spend ROI

Availability of granular data

Advanced modeling techniques

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Independent studies confirm the rising tide of attribution modeling

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“Since 2009…the market has gained momentum”

“Algorithmic attribution [is] helping value marketing efforts, identify and eliminate waste, and optimize media plans…to boost ROI”

Forrester Wave: Interactive Attribution Vendors

“Last click still survives but we see accelerating momentum to cast it aside and implement interactive attribution”

“Benefits for digital marketers include […] improved multichannel measurement, data-driven spending and strategy decisions, and media buying leverage”

“44% of interactive marketers don’t have processes in place to assign credit to their efforts, indicating that adoption of attribution has room to grow”

IAB: Digital Attribution Comes Of Age

Scientific Attribution delivers on the promise of full funnel measurement

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Purchase

DisplayEmail

Purchase

SearchDisplay

Purchase

Social

Rich Media

Search Display Search

Account for all touch points when assigning purchase credit

A scientific approach to attribution: important factors

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• Digital agencies manage millions in online ad spend each year

• Understand the challenges of online media optimization

Advertising expertise

• Build custom models to understand true value of media channels

Customized statistical approach

• No prior assumptions are made• Results reflect the impact of each

channel on purchases

Unbiased results

A statistical model unearths relationships between a set of factors and a response

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User Search

B No

C Yes

D No

Purchase?

No

Yes

No

Display

No

No

A Yes YesYes

E Yes YesYes

Moderate Predictor

Strong Predictor

Yes

Scientific Attribution also incorporates non-media factors that play a role in purchase behavior

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Media channels

Landing page

Industry changes

Geo-graphy

Time of day/

Day of week

Competi-tion

Season-ality

Understanding (and potentially controlling) non-media factors helps boost optimization

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• Determine which landing pages drive conversions

• Optimize and test based on results

Landing Page

• Key understanding of advertiser’s business• Develop a seasonally-adjusted media strategy

Seasonal Effects

• Discover which states respond to different channels/messages

• Increase geo-targeting efficiencyGeography

Scientific Attribution should be continuously improved through collaboration

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Data collection

Attribution Modeling

Channel optimization

Performance reporting

Advertiser/Media

Agency feedback

Analytics + Database

Analytics

Analytics + MediaMedia

Everyone!

Media Channel Last Click CPS

“Full Click” CPS

Difference

Google Brand $24 $29 -21%

Google Non-Brand $58 $36 +38%

Bing Brand $22 $23 -5%

Bing Non-Brand $48 $29 +40%

Ad.com $87 $94 -8%

ValueClick $105 $76 +28%

Google Display $65 $43 +34%

Rich Media $41 $25 +39%

Create actionable results via “Full Click” metrics

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+ budget

+ budget

- budget

Directly incorporate “Full Click” metrics into bid management tool (Marin, etc.)

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What is Digital

Attribution?

Scientific Digital

AttributionDoes it work? Getting

started

BKV’s integrated approach to attribution proved useful for a major Telecom client

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Goal: increase media efficiency and identify valuable “assist” keywords

Solution: Scientific Attribution model, focusing on ease of implementation

Result: more efficient media buys

BKV’s integrated approach to attribution proved useful for a major Telecom client

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• Discuss objectives and goals with client

• Collect/process appropriate data

• Determine most appropriate modeling structure & approach

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• Build custom model for client

• Extensive testing process to verify model findings

• Create actionable recommendations based on modeling results

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• Implement Scientific Attribution

• Report on findings over several weeks to gauge impact

• Initiate refinements for future iterations

Scientific Attribution delivered tangible results upon implementation

2% daily spend

increase

22% daily orders

increase

16% cost per sale

decrease

Scientific Attribution implementation results

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Scientific Attribution will continue to grow and evolve

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Understanding mobile marketing & cross-device

ROI

Determining the value of social media presence

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What is Digital

Attribution?

Scientific Digital

AttributionDoes it work? Getting

started

Scientific Attribution success relies advance planning

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1Verify that all your online marketing is being tracked

and that cookie-level data is available

2Identify a partner for statistical modeling – with

extensive media optimization and analytics experience

3Create a detailed plan for implementation, including a

process for continual improvement

Scientific Attribution is a crucial component of an online media strategy

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Traditional methods fall short

Scientific Attribution not biased

Industry-wide focus to improve

digital attribution

Case studies show strong results

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Dave MundoVP, Analytics Directordave.mundo@bkv.com@davemundo

Thank you!

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