National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Renewable Hydrogen: The Potential Resource Potential

National Hydrogen AssociationRenewables to Hydrogen Forum

October 4-5, 2006Albuquerque, NM

Margaret K. Mann, Anelia MilbrandtNational Renewable Energy Laboratory

Preview

• Raw Resource Base– Wind– Solar– Biomass

• How Much Hydrogen?– Wind– Solar– Biomass– Total

• Context– Population– Gasoline Consumption– Are there Gaps? (HINT: There’s a happy ending)

• Analysis: H2A

Resource: Wind

Wind Not Allowed

• 100% excluded: National Parks; Fish and Wildlife lands; federally-designated parks, wilderness, wilderness and study areas, wildlife refuge, wildlife area, recreational area, battlefield, monument, conservation areas, recreational areas, and wild and scenic rivers; conservation areas, water, wetlands, urban areas and airports/airfields; slope>20%

• 50% excluded: remaining Forest Service, Department of Defense lands, and non–ridge crest forests

When the Wind Blows….

Class Capacity Factor Hours/Year

3 20% 1,752

4 25.1% 2,199

5 32.25% 2,825

6 39.4% 3,451

7 39.4% 3,451

Source: Power Technologies Energy Data Book, http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/power_databook/

Implications: Cost of capital, Utility applications (e.g., peak shaving), Storage, Delivery

Aggregate Wind Power

Xcel Aggregate Wind

PonnequinPeetzLamar

Aggregate Wind

Can increase capacity factor to 95%

Resource: Solar

Min: 2.2 kWh/m2/day in portions of Alaska

Max: 7.0 kWh/m2/day in the Southwestern U.S.

Solar Not Allowed

Resource: Biomass

• Ag crop residues

• Animal manure

• Forest residues

• Mill residues• Urban wood

waste• Landfill gas• Wastewater

treatment• Dedicated

energy crops on CRP Land

Where We Live

Making Hydrogen From Renewables

Multitude of ways to make hydrogen from renewables; representative technologies were studied here

Assumptions for this analysis:• Wind

– Electrolysis: 58.8 kWh/kg hydrogen (66.3% efficient)– Terrain exposure factor: 5% for ridge-crests, 35% for slight hills, 65% for hilly

areas, and 90% for generally flat terrain– Minimum density criteria of 5 km2 per 100 km2 (eliminates small, isolated wind

resource areas)• Solar

– PV– Max 10% of land developed; 30% of this covered with panels -> 3% of total non-

excluded land covered with PV panels– Electrical efficiency of PV : 10%– Electrolysis: 58.8 kWh/kg hydrogen (66.3% efficient)

• Biomass– Lignocellulosics via gasification/reforming: 13.8 kg H2/kg bone dry biomass– Gaseous (methane-producing) feedstocks 2.34 kg methane/kg H2

Hydrogen from WindPer County

Hydrogen from WindPer Person

Hydrogen from SolarPer County

Hydrogen from SolarPer Person

Hydrogen from BiomassPer County

Hydrogen from BiomassPer Person

Total Renewable HydrogenPer County

Total Renewable HydrogenPer Person

Dominant Resource for Hydrogen

State of Being

What’s one State’s biomass is another State’s windHydrogen Potential from Renewable Resources

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

WindSolarBiomas

MTNENVNHNJ

U.S. Total

% of Total Resource Per State

Biomass Solar Wind

Gasoline Consumption

Is There Enough?

On a gge basis (no advantage given for fuel cell efficiency)

State of IndependenceRenewable Hydrogen Potential Relative to Gasoline Consumption by State

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Hydrogen from Renew able Resources (kg) 2002 Gasoline Consumption (gallons)

Energy equivalent basis (gge): no advantage given to hydrogen for higher fuel cell efficiency

NJ NM NY

U.S. total: H2 / gasoline = 7.4Max: AK (203), MT (120), WY (120), ND (115), SD (114)Min: DC (0.1), NJ (0.4), RI (0.5), MA (0.6), CT (0.6)

Proximity to Resources

East Coast

San FranciscoLos Angeles

Seattle

Determining the Cost of Utilizing Renewable Resources: H2A

Improve the transparency and consistency of analysis, improve the understanding of the differences among analyses, and seek better validation from industry.

H2A Model

Category Cost Contributions

$0.9

$0.7

$0.0

$0.2

$0.1

-$0.1

-$0.2

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

Capital Cost Feedstock Cost Other Raw Material Fixed O&M Cost Other Variable O&MCost

Byproduct CreditCost

Category

Cont

ribut

ion

to R

equi

red

Hyd

roge

n Se

lling

Pr

ice

($/k

g)

R esults - P rice of H 2

Cash F low Analysis

R eplacem ent C apita l

Cost Inputs

F inancing Inputs

P rocess F lowsheet &S tream Sum m ary

Technology Perform anceAssum ptions

Feedstock & U tility Prices

Process D escription

Base Case H2A Guidelines

Reference $ Year (in half-decade increments) 2000 2000

Assumed Start-up Year 2005 2005, 2015, 2030

After-Tax Real IRR (%) 10% 10%Depreciation Type (MACRS, Straight Line) MACRS MACRS

Depreciation Schedule Length (No. of Years) 20 20Analysis Period (years) 40 40

Plant Life (years) 40 40Assumed Inflation Rate (%) 1.90% 1.90%

State Income Taxes (%) 6.0% 6%Federal Income Taxes (%) 35.0% 35%

Effective Tax Rate (%) 38.9%Design Capacity at 100% Capacity (kg of H2/day) -

Operating Capacity Factor (%) 90% Varies according to case

Plant Output (kg H2/day) - Plant Output (kg H2/year) -

% Equity Financing 100% 100%% Debt Financing 0% 0%

VARIABLE PRODUCTION COSTS (at 100% capacity, startup year dollars)Base Case:

Feedstock CostsType of electricity used none

Escalating electricity cost? (Enter yes or no) Yes

Enter electricity cost if NO is selected above ($/kWh)Electricity consumption (kWh/kg H2)

Electricity cost in startup year ($/kWh)

Electricity cost ($/year, startup year dollars) $0

Type of natural gas used None

Natural gas energy content, LHV, if standard H2A value is not desired (GJ/Nm3) 0.038

Escalating natural gas cost? (Enter yes or no) Yes

Enter natural gas cost if NO is selected above ($/Nm3)Natural gas consumption (Nm3/kg of H2) 0

Hydrogen Selling Price and Cost Contributions (Year 2000 $) Required Hydrogen Selling Price ($(Year 2000)/kg of H2) $1.886

Capital Cost Contribution ($/kg of H2) $0.779 Feedstock cost contribution ($/kg of H2) $0.642

Fixed O&M (labor etc.) cost contribution ($/kg of H2) $0.217Other Variable O&M cost contribution ($/kg of H2) $0.248

Byproduct credit cost contribution ($/kg of H2) $0.000

Solve Cash Flow for Desired IRR

H2A Website

www.hydrogen.energy.gov/h2a_analysis.html

Visits Modeling Tools: Unique Users

Modeling Tools: Total Downloads

Oct. 2005 1,004 566 283

Nov. 2005 1,973 1,098 535

Dec. 2005 1,110 369 227

Jan. 2006 1,172 183 135

Feb. 2006 853 227 154

March 2006 812 467 271

April 2006 1,080 334 188

May 2006 1,164 334 249

TOTAL 9,168 3,578 2,042

Wrap-up

• Renewable resource potential in U.S. is very large, even with conservative land exclusions

• Wind and solar dominate (electrolysis not an optional technology)

• Resources don’t always line up with population• Even large population centers are close to significant

resources• Hydrogen technologies & infrastructure cannot be averaged

across country• Hydrogen delivery and storage, and interaction with electric

utility sector vitally important• Analysis begins with a solid understanding of the potential,

followed by consistent approach