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Version 5.0 January 23, 2007© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 1
Meetings in 2020
John ParkinsonChairman & Managing Director
ParkWood Advisors LLC
Sydney, February 2007
Version 5.0 January 23, 2007© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 2
Agenda
How we got here: Scenarios Revisited
Leveraging Automation Meetings in Virtual Meeting Management Where do we go from
here?
Version 5.0 January 23, 2007© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 3
How we got here: Scenarios revisited
“It may not be possible to predict the future but it is certainly possible to invent it”
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Predicting the future is hard…..
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…..but building scenarios can help.
“Process”
“Algorithm”
“ Locus” “Society”
What kinds of new things can we model or compute or connect?
What new kinds of locations are accessible or connections possible?
How does this change what we can do?
How does this changehow we work and live?
“Weak signals”
Feedback loops
What emergent trends should we track?
“Expectation”
What issues and ideas illuminate, motivateand constrain the aspirations of societiesgroups and individuals (constructed via scenario analysis)
“ Devices”
What new kinds of productsor capabilities are coming to market?
Version 5.0 January 23, 2007© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 6
Two scenarios for 2020
An energy crunch– nuclear electric generation
replaces oil, gas and coal as primary energy source
– a major but rapidly settled regional conflict
– a generally peaceful, prosperous and healthy world
– limited ability to travel.
A threat of global contagion– an effective hydrogen-
based economy providing cheap energy
– a background of low-level worldwide biological terrorism
– a continuing concern about global pandemics.
In both scenarios most people are unable or reluctant to travel a lot and to meet in large groups, especially with strangers.
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Leveraging automation
“Of course you can’t have everything – where would you keep it all?”
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The new capabilities and tools
Low cost, high bandwidth, prevalent connectivity and cheap computing cycles
Ubiquitous digital sensors and surveillance
Highly reliable automation Semi-autonomous
personal software agents: “Images”
Augmented storage: “eMinds”
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The new challenges
Prevalent observation Behavioral analysis Scenario simulation
and outcome prediction Globally dispersed
executive management “Real time reality” “Always on” executive
demand
Version 5.0 January 23, 2007© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 10
The new responses
“Images” to mask behavioral cues
Real time analytics Routine decision
automation Attention augmentation Neutral meeting
“places” with digital authentication
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New capabilities change behavior in unpredictable ways
Mainstream Collaboration
time
The “new”
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
MinicomputersShared digital documents
All-in-one & PROFSBasic email
Fax
PC & LANEmail & Voicemail
SpreadsheetsWord processing
ISDN & basic VTCCell Phones
Internet2.5G Cell Phones
IM & Advanced MessagingPowerPoint & Rich media
P2PWi-Fi
Converged IP NetworksBlackberry & UMTS
Immersive PresenceAgents & Rules
Shared WorkflowDRM
RelativeImpact of Capability
On behavior
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Meetings “in Virtual”
““It always amazes me how It always amazes me how consistently we consistently we over estimateover estimate what what we can do in two years and we can do in two years and underestimateunderestimate what we can do in what we can do in ten”ten”
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In “Virtual” you can be…..
Anywhere (real or imaginary) you want
Anyone (real or imaginary) you want
Surrounded by (invisible) help
Secure and certain Recorded and replayed (Invisibly) multitasking
Version 5.0 January 23, 2007© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 14
Meeting Management
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Making meetings productive
Effective preparation and briefing “Sprint & Glide” interaction models Confirming vs. deciding modalities Managing time The sociology of interruptions The rise of semiotics, rituals and the role of
archetypes
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Social Network Mapping
Real time communications analysis
Visualizing information sets, decisions and outcomes
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Managing Meeting Models, Time Lines and Interaction Effectiveness
0
10
20
30
40
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1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63
messages synthetrons elaborates elaborates that are synthetrons
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Where do we go from here?
“The future is only rational in retrospect”
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The limits to….
Storage: Managing the ExaFlood - Quantum holography vs. space colonization
Bandwidth: The Yottabit threshold in 2025 Wavelength resolution: Quantum crossover
in MPλS Latency: When speed of light is not enough Unassisted human cognition:
Transcending the mind/machine interface
Version 5.0 January 23, 2007© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 20
Welcome to the future - however it turns out!
Version 5.0 January 23, 2007© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 21
About John ParkinsonChairman and Managing Director, ParkWood Advisors LLC
30+ years in technology 20+ years in consulting Published author and columnist (CIO Insight) World’s top 25 most influential consultants
(2003) Chairman ITAA Working Group on Public
Policy for RFID (2004) Computerworld 100 Leaders in IT (2005) Retired head of Innovation and Strategy at
Ernst & Young LLP (September 2001) Retired CTO of Capgemini
(July 2005) External Director, TeleGuam Holdings LLC Board of Advisors: Brulant Inc. ; TAP.tv;
InSORS Communications;
[email protected]+1 847 235 1791
Version 5.0 January 23, 2007© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 22
Copyright notice and disclaimer:
ParkWood Advisors LLC 2006. All rights reserved.
Reproduction or translation of any part of this work, beyond that permitted by Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act without the permission of the copyright owner is unlawful. Requests for permission or further information should be addressed to John Parkinson at ParkWood Advisors LLC..
This presentation is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard of the subject matter covered. It is made available with the understanding that the intent is not to render legal, investment, accounting or other professional advisory services. If investment advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.
WORLD INTERNET USAGE AND POPULATION STATISTICS
World RegionsPopulation( 2006 Est.)
Population% of World
Internet Usage,
Latest Data
% Population( Penetration )
Usage% of
World
Usage Growth
2000-2006
Africa 915,210,928 14.1 % 32,765,700 3.6 % 3.0 % 625.8 %
Asia 3,667,774,066 56.4 % 394,872,213 10.8 % 36.4 % 245.5 %
Europe 807,289,020 12.4 % 308,712,903 38.2 % 28.4 % 193.7 %
Middle East 190,084,161 2.9 % 19,028,400 10.0 % 1.8 % 479.3 %
North America 331,473,276 5.1 % 229,138,706 69.1 % 21.1 % 112.0 %
Latin America/Caribbean 553,908,632 8.5 % 83,368,209 15.1 % 7.7 % 361.4 %
Oceania / Australia 33,956,977 0.5 % 18,364,772 54.1 % 1.7 % 141.0 %
WORLD TOTAL 6,499,697,060 100.0 % 1,086,250,903 16.7 % 100.0 % 200.9 %NOTES: (1) Internet Usage and World Population Statistics were updated for Sept. 18, 2006. (2) Demographic (Population) numbers are based on data contained in the world-gazetteer website. (3) Internet usage information comes from data published by Nielsen//NetRatings, by the International Telecommunications Union, by local NICs, and other reliable sources. (4) Information from this site may be cited, giving due credit and establishing an active link back to www.internetworldstats.com. Copyright © 2006, Miniwatts Marketing Group. All rights reserved worldwide.
Version 5.0 January 23, 2007© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 23
Source: InternetWorldStats.com
© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 24
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Voice Crossover: August 2000
4x/Year
2.8x/Year
1Gbps
1Tbps
10Tbps
100Gbps
10Gbps
100Tbps
100Mbps
1Kbps
1Mbps
10Mbps
100Kbps
10Kbps
100 bps
1 Pbps
100 Pbps
10 Pbps
10 bps10 bps
ARPA & NSF Data to 96
2001 Measurements
Limit of same % as GDP
Sustained at 4x/Year
2015 2020
1 Ebps
10 Ebps
100 Ebps
Government & Research
Commerce, including VoIP
Collaborative Work
50 years of traffic growth
Consumer Peer to Peer
1 Zbps
10 Zbps
Petabit threshold
Exabit threshold
Zettabit threshold
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© ParkWood Advisors LLC, 2006, 2007 All Rights Reserved 25
Meetings in 2020
Version 5.0 January 23, 2007