Managing What If Scenarios for Unconventional Oil & Gas

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Managing What If Scenarios for Unconventional Oil & Gas

Prepared by:

Patrick Lovelace

President

Nu Solutions Consulting

Using Primavera P6 EPPM and Risk Analysis

Session ID#: 200130

@patricklovelac patrick-lovelace

Business Use Case

■ Integrated Schedule for Visibility Across all Functions

■ Main Focus is on the Rig Schedule

▪ 12 – 18 month forecast plan

▪ 50 – 100 active well projects

▪ Rig Resources are limited and Geographically Restricted

■ Modify plan as variables change to maximize Rig productivity.

The Challenge

• Geography

• Interests in multiple states, with multiple operated assets

• 35,000 active wells in 800 fields

• 8 currently operating Drill Rigs, increasing to ?? Drill Rigs

(planned)

• Workforce

• Geographically separated

• Differing methodologies within regions

• Project Management

• Vigorous Drilling and Field Reinvestment programs

• Requirement to reduce overall well development time

• Desire to schedule entire well development life cycle

The Challenge

• Rapid growth of project portfolio; extensive development of existing reservoirs using new technologies

• Desire to tightly integrate all functions involved in well development so as to create an integrated program

• Desire to standardize work processes and schedule information across the entire Business Unit

• Integrated Schedule for Visibility Across all Functions

• Modify plan as variables change to maximize Rig productivity

The Challenge

■ Main Focus is on the Rig Schedule

▪ 12 – 18 month forecast plan

▪ 50 – 100 active well projects

▪ Rig Resources are limited and Geographically Restricted

Traditional Planning

■ Using Excel

▪ Only provides single view

■ Using MS Project

▪ This is a sub-bullet of text

– This tertiary sub-bullet that can be use

▪ This is another sub-bullet

of text

■ Using Primavera P6 Stand alone

■ No Critical Path

■ No Baseline Variances

▪ Have we hit target start?

▪ Have we hit target finish?

▪ How often do we slip?

▪ What is the main driver for

slips?

Process Hurdles

■ Labor intensive to break relationship links to redo path.

■ Too Many variables to manage – input and updates are slow hard to capture.

■ Things change to often to accurately plan

■ Planning by Committee

Process Foundation

■ Define the structure

■ Tools to use in the Application

■ Viewing the Data

■ Define the Steps

■ Agree on the Definitions

▪ What moves through Stage

▪ Racking Projects

▪ When Resources get

allocated

■ Stick to the process

Primavera P6 Configuration Business Process

Primavera P6 EPPM Configuration

Setting up the enviornment

Primavera P6 EPPM Configuration

■ EPS – Organizes Wells by Location then Project

■ OBS – Separate Access by Function

■ WBS – Project Phase

■ Activities – Key Activities

■ Roles – Capacity Planning

■ Resources – Level Utilization

■ Project UDF's – Portfolio Scenarios

■ Activity Codes and UDF'S – Level Utilization

Enterprise Project Structure

EPS root

EPS node EPS node EPS node

EPS node EPS node

EPS nodeEPS node EPS node EPS node

PROJECTS

Company

State/County Location

Well Pad

Individual Well

Software Workflow

■ Primavera P6 EPPM – Portfolios

■ Filter on Project UDF's

■ Waterfall Portfolio Scenarios

■ Primavera P6 EPPM – Resource Assignments

■ Roles then Resources

■ Primavera P6 EPPM – Activities

■ All projects in Portfolio, filter for drilling tasks

■ Primavera Risk Analysis

■ Link and unlink for scenarios

Waterline Analysis

▪ Sorts projects into two separate groups based on sorting and

constraint limit.

— Projects that collectively meet the constraint limit value appear above

the waterline (white background).

— All other projects appear below the waterline (blue background).

Project 1

Project 2

Project 3

Project 4

Project 5

projects that collectively

meet constraint limit

other projects

constraint limit

so

rtin

g o

rder

Select Project Portfolio

Project UDF’s



Scenario

▪ A view saved with its data.

— Data does not update as in a regular view.

▪ Serves as a snapshot of the portfolio at a particular point in time.

— Useful for creating a historical record.

regular view

updates with latest

data

scenario frozen

with January 2018

data

Capacity Planning Chart

■ Enables you to analyze role staffing requirements and allocation

over time for projects in the portfolio.

time

lab

or

un

its

available

capacity

limit

required

units

Primavera Risk Analysis

Business Process Overview

Putting The Environment Into Action

Workflow

Identification

Alternatives

Detailed Planning

Phases

Execution


■ Project Initiation (Templates)

▪ Required Project Codes and UDF’s

▪ Standard WBS

▪ Standard Activities

■ 12 month – 24 month Planning Phase Gate

▪ Role Assignments

■ 6 month – 12 month Planning

▪ Resource Assignments

■ 3 month – 6 month Planning

▪ Resource Allocations

■ 2 week – 3 month Schedules

▪ Update Resource Allocations from project status


■ Define Scenario Variables

▪ Design Changes

— Number of wells on pad

— Drilling durations – min/average/max

▪ Delay in schedule

— Seasonal permit – project calendar

— Land Access – yes/no

▪ Permitting complete – yes/no

▪ Economics - ranking

▪ Prioritization – ranking from Asset and Division


■ Activity Codes and UDF’s

▪ Water Storage

▪ Well Count

▪ Gas Type

▪ TIL Order

▪ Frac Crew

▪ PUD

▪ Shale Type

▪ Phase – Stage Gate

▪ Asset Team

▪ Product Line

Demonstration of the Process

Putting The Environment Into Action

Design Considerations

■ Keep Design Simple

▪ Strategic

— Right tool in hands – self maintaining

▪ Tactical

— Simple workflows

▪ Measurable

— Defined Standard Reporting

Organizations don’t execute unless the right people, individually and collectively, focus on the right details at the right time.

-- Larry Bossidy

Author, “Execution”

Questions

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