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www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 1 Second Quarter 2009 Housing Briefing Tuesday, May 19, 2009 The Landmark Theatre The Genesis Perspective Gaining Clarity in a Gaining Clarity in a Chaotic Market Chaotic Market

Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

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Page 1: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 1

Second Quarter 2009 Housing BriefingTuesday, May 19, 2009The Landmark Theatre

The Genesis Perspective

Gaining Clarity in a Gaining Clarity in a Chaotic MarketChaotic Market

Page 2: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 2

Prior to 4Q08…Colorado Was Less Impacted

Job Growth – 4th in NationPositive In-migrationLow Unemployment

Growing Retail SpendingHome Price Appreciation

Reduction in Foreclosure ActivityNational Headlines of Stability Were True

Page 3: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 3

We are still reading those We are still reading those same headlinessame headlines……

but the U.S. economy is but the U.S. economy is taking ittaking it’’s tolls toll

Page 4: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 4

Job Growth by StateColorado’s Ranking Has Dropped

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

First Quarter 2009 Employment Growth by State

-3.7%

-3.1%

-2.5%

-3.8%

-4.1%-4.4%

-6.4%

-5.1%

+0.9%+1.2%

-1.4%

-7.0%

-6.5%

-6.0%

-5.5%

-5.0%

-4.5%

-4.0%

-3.5%

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

Mic

hig

anA

rizo

naF

lori

da

Nev

ada

Idah

oS

outh

Car

olin

aO

reg

on

No

rth

Car

olin

aG

eorg

iaO

hio

Del

awar

eV

erm

ont

Rho

de

Isla

nd

Ten

ness

eeIn

dia

naC

alif

orn

iaA

laba

ma

Illin

ois

Wis

con

sin

Ken

tuck

yM

issi

ssip

piM

inn

esot

aC

onn

ectic

ut

Haw

aii

New

Jer

sey

Mas

sach

uset

tsM

ain

eW

ash

ing

ton

Co

lora

doV

irg

inia

Uta

hA

rkan

sas

Mar

ylan

dM

isso

uri

Pen

nsy

lvan

iaW

est

Vir

gin

iaN

ew Y

ork

New

Mex

ico

Iow

aM

ont

ana

New

Ham

psh

ire

Neb

rask

aK

ansa

sS

out

h D

ako

taTe

xas

Okl

aho

ma

Nor

th D

ako

taLo

uis

ian

aW

yom

ing

Ala

ska

Dis

tric

t of

Col

umb

ia

Per

cen

t Cha

nge

from

20

Co

lorad

o

Page 5: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 5

Sources: The Genesis Group; Bureau of Labor StatisticsSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Reversal of FortuneDenver Metropolitan Area Wage & Salary Employment

Monthly Total Employment & Employment Change

-60-50-40-30-20-10

0102030405060708090

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Net

New

Job

s in

000

-1002003004005006007008009001,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,500

Total Em

ployment in

00

Year/Year Monthly Employment Change Total Employment

Mar 2009

-51,100

Page 6: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 6

Sources: The Genesis Group; Bureau of Labor StatisticsSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Metro Denver Job Growth12 Mo thru 1Q2009 = - 0.4% (vs. -1.3% for U.S.)

Denver Metropolitan AreaJob Growth & Forecast - 12 Month Averages

50,100

-28,400

0

-6,100

12,200

56,300

44,10043,90035,400

10,700

25,400

48,600

-42,400

27,500

300

51,900

29,800

-18,800

4.2% 4.1%

3.1%

4.4%4.0% 3.9% 4.3%

-3.1%

1.9% 2.0% 2.2%

0.0%0.9% -0.4%

-2.0%

0.8%

-1.4%

0.0%

-60,000-50,000-40,000-30,000-20,000-10,000

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1stQtr

2009

2009Proj.

2010Proj.

Net

Job

Gro

wt

-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%

Percent C

hang

Net Job Growth Percent Change in Employment

12 Months Through:

Page 7: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 7

Consumer Confidence ShatteredImprovement in 2009…Still historically at very low levels

Sources: The Genesis Group; The Conference Board

Source: The Conference BoardNote: Mountain Region Includes Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada

Consumer Confidence Index - Monthly Comparison

Apr200939.2

Apr200941.8

20

35

50

65

80

95

110

125

140

155

170

Dec-92

Dec-93

Dec-94

Dec-95

Dec-96

Dec-97

Dec-98

Dec-99

Dec-00

Dec-01

Dec-02

Dec-03

Dec-04

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Con

sum

er C

onfid

ence

Inde

x

U.S. Composite Index Mountain Region Index

U.S. Index is Seasonally AdjustedMountain Region Index is Unadjusted

Page 8: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 8

Mounting Concerns…

Unemployment Retail Sales Growth Slowing

Consumer Confidence

Page 9: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 9

Is There Any Good News?

Foreclosure Notices DownDistressed Property Sales Activity Strong

In-migrationSupply levels continue to lessen

Page 10: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 10

Foreclosures Abating?First time this decade…

Sources: The Genesis Group; County Public Trustees; U.S. Census Bureau; Colorado State Demography Office

Source: SKLD Information Services, LLC

Seven County Metro DenverTotal Foreclosure Activity

1991 Through First Quarter 2009

5,4003,612

2,595 2,232 2,562 3,067 3,338 3,329 3,567

9,424

12,216

15,728

27,133

8,335

19,016

25,241

7,184 6,165

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1Q2008

1Q2009

Num

ber o

f For

eclo

sure

s

Page 11: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 11

Foreclosures – by Price Range Lower Price Ranges First to Improve

Sources: The Genesis Group; County Public Trustees; U.S. Census Bureau; Colorado State Demography OfficeSource: SKLD Information Services, LLC

Seven County Denver Area Foreclosure Activity By Original Loan Value Price Range

First Quarter Comparisons - 2005 to 2009

28 8 548 11 8

86 25 31

491

2,89

1

1,20

7

704

134

125

119

51 5348 117

53973

8

33 41

1,51

0

442

250

1,07

8

57

516

384

55

1,88

7

737

1,27

7

90

567

96

495

2,75

8

945

1,40

9

1,01

2

417

2,21

8

1,15

4

752

135

148

158

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

< $100K $100K-$170K

$170K-$200K

$200K-$250K

$250K-$300K

$300K-$400K

$400K-$500K

$500K-$750K

$750K -$1M

Over $1M

For

eclo

sure

2005 1Q

2006 1Q

2007 1Q

2008 1Q

2009 1Q

Page 12: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 12

Metro DenverAdams County – 1.4%

Denver – 1.1%Arapahoe – 0.9%

Overall Metro – 0.9%

Foreclosure RatesBy Zip Code

*Total foreclosures as a percentage of owner-occupied homes

Page 13: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 13

The Genesis Perspective

The Current StateThe Current Stateof Housingof Housing

Page 14: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 14

EXISTING HOME Sales Down 21%in First Quarter 2009

Sources: The Genesis Group; Metrolist, Inc. & IRES, LLC

Source: Metrolist Inc., IRES, LLC

Metropolitan Denver AreaHistorical Closing Trends of Existing Homes

1999 Through First Quarter 2009

7,4619,427

45,80148,11948,30747,183 47,197 47,326

52,460 51,83047,946 47,295

23.6% 22.3%25.2%25.3%25.0%24.8%26.0%27.1%27.4%26.7% 23.4%26.7% 77.7%76.4%

76.6%

74.8%74.7%75.0%75.2%74.0%72.9%72.6%73.3%

73.3%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1Q08 1Q09

Tota

l Num

ber

of C

losi

n

Attached Closings Detached Closings

Page 15: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 15

EXISTING HOME Inventory Down 18%5.1 Month’s Supply Overall - Lowest in 3 Years

Sources: The Genesis Group; Metrolist, Inc. & IRES, LLC

Source: Metrolist Inc., IRES, LLC

Metropolitan Denver AreaExisting Inventory Homes and Month's Supply

First Quarter Comparisons - 2000 Through 2009

5,8157,107

7,8797,273

3,983

5,929

1,1162,168

5,415

7,264

16,12215,83515,985

13,662

11,139

15,135

7,516

4,833

13,415

15,404

6.46.0

7.3

3.7

1.0

7.0

6.7

7.0

5.7

2.0

4.85.5

5.0

4.1

5.15.4

1.7

2.5

5.3

3.8

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Num

ber

of L

istin

g

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Month's S

upp

Attached Inventory Detached InventoryAttached Month's Supply Detached Month's Supply

Page 16: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 16

Sources: Hanley Wood LLC, The Genesis Group

APARTMENT Market Weakening

Source: Apartment Association of Metropolitan Denver

Absorption falls below new units added; vacancy pops up.

Metropolitan Denver AreaApartment Construction/Absorption

1,404

2,887

7,949

3,584

2,262

738

6,445

7,761

5,626

9,123

2,548

5,594

2,517

3,526

2,0331,729

5,6695,465

-2,421

4,679

197

5,432

6,355

2,752

4,058

5,8186,604

-2,904

1,728

8,123

2,7092,970

4,644

-142

8.4%

7.9%11.7%8.7%4.7%5.2%4.4%4.6%4.9%5.0% 10.9% 6.1%4.4% 7.0%7.9%10.0%3.8%

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1Q2009

Num

ber

of U

ni

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Period E

nd Vacancy R

Units Added Units Absorbed Quarterly Vacancy Rate

Page 17: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 17

NEW HOME Sales down 45%

Sources: Hanley Wood LLC, The Genesis GroupSource: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

Detached Sales down 47% Attached Sales down 40%

New Production Built HousingDenver Metropolitan Area - Historical Sales Trends

1988 Through First Quarter 2009

4,222

16,889

16,577

19,432

13,641

12,112

9,5909,801

8,113

5,5473,870

3,4573,724

15,608

18,28218,759

15,704

17,784

14,002

17,543

9,500

5,001

40%39%

40%

39%35%32%

29%30%33%30%

23%6% 9%

13%19% 20%

25%23% 60%61%

60%

61%

70%67%

70%

94%

91% 87%

81%

80%

77%

77% 75%

71% 68% 65%

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 12mothru1Q09

To

tal N

um

ber

of N

ew H

om

e S

aP

ercentag

e of To

tal Sa

Detached SalesAttached Sales

Page 18: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 18

Sources: Hanley Wood LLC, The Genesis Group

Across the Board Declines Hit the Heart of New Detached Housing Market

Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

Sales down 59% in $300K - $400K price ranges

Denver Metropolitan Area - New Production Built HousingDetached Sales by Price Range

First Quarter Comparisons - 2008 vs 2009

185

16

245

137

40

195214206

34

161

3423

113110

78

2337

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Under$200K

$200K to$250K

$250K to$300K

$300K to$350K

$350K to$400K

$400K to$500K

$500K to$600K

$600K to$700K

$700K +

Average Project Base Home Price

Num

ber

of S

ale

20082009

Page 19: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

Sources: Hanley Wood LLC, The Genesis GroupSource: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

Lower priced new homes compete with resale/distressed unitsbut 52% drop in $200K to $300K price ranges

Attached Sales Up in Lower Price Ranges but Falter in Higher Price Segments

Denver Metropolitan Area - New Production Built HousingAttached Sales by Price Range

First Quarter Comparisons - 2008 vs 2009

36

15

36

131

41

61

94

137

64

39

69

1631

4438

146

60

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

Under$150K

$150K to$200K

$200K to$250K

$250K to$300K

$300K to$350K

$350K to$400K

$400K to$500K

$500K to$700K

$700K +

Average Project Base Home Price

Num

ber

of S

ale

20082009

Page 20: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

Sources: Hanley Wood LLC, The Genesis Group

New Home Inventory –SFD Restricted and SFA Jumps Up

Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

SFD down 24% / SFA up 8%Sales declines push month’s supply up sharply

New Production Built HousingDenver Metropolitan Area - Historical Inventory and Month's Supply Trends

First Quarter Comparisons - 2000 Through 2009

1,186 1,108

1,3801,2531,178

1,5021,333

780 844835

2,608

1,688

2,209

1,8111,636

1,7571,639

1,144

2,826

1,307

1.2

4.02.71.91.51.30.81.61.40.7

9.3

3.3

20.0

3.73.14.0

2.9 3.1 5.3

4.5

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

# o

f H

om

es in

Inve

nto

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

24.0

Mo

nth

's Su

pp

Detached Inventory - 4th Quarter Attached Inventory - 4th QuarterDetached Month's Supply Attached Month's Supply

Page 21: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

Other Notable Indicators..

Cancellation Rates• Stable at 23% in 1Q comparisonsTraffic UP from 3.8 visitors in 4Q08• Averaging 5.7 visitors per weekBuild-out of Finished Lots Exceptionally High• 6 year supply• Arapahoe & Northeast most vulnerable

Page 22: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 22

Welcome to the New Market

31Century Communities

32Lennar Homes

34Shea Homes

35Pulte / Del Webb / Centex*

42Engle Homes

46Oakwood Homes

55KB Homes

73Colorado & Santa Fe Real Estate

83Richmond American Homes

109D.R. Horton Homes

2009 Top Builders

83Centex Homes

90Engle Homes

96Beazer Homes

97Ryland Homes

121Standard Pacific Homes

134Lennar Homes

145Shea Homes

171KB Homes

214Richmond American Homes

384D.R. Horton Homes

2007 Top Builders

Page 23: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 23

Who Will Be Left Standing by Year End?Richmond American Homes

D.R. Horton HomesColorado & Santa Fe Real Estate

KB HomesOakwood Homes

Nichols PartnershipPulte/CentexShea Homes

Lennar Homes Century Communities

Page 24: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 24

The Genesis Perspective

The Geography of The Geography of The MarketThe Market

Timing the ReboundTiming the Rebound

Page 25: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

Douglas CountyMarket Area

North

5 Miles

Douglas Market Area

Boulder/Longmont

Market Area

NorthwestMarket Area

NortheastMarket Area

Jefferson Market Area

DenverMarket Area

ArapahoeMarket Area

Jefferson Mkt Area8% capture

1Q 2009 sales: 74Sales Down -49%

Arapahoe Mkt Area25% capture

1Q 2009 sales: 236Sales down -20%

Douglas Mkt Area23% capture

1Q 2009 sales: 219Sales down -42%

Northwest Mkt Area13% capture

1Q 2009 sales: 122Sales down -44%

Metro Denver by GeographyNew Home Sales Activity

1Q 2008 vs. 1Q 2009

Boulder/Longmont5% capture

1Q 2009 sales: 50Sales down -49%

Denver Mkt Area9% capture

1Q 2009 sales: 85Sales down -69%

Northeast Mkt Area19% capture

1Q 2009 sales: 179Sales down -46%

Overall Metro Denver Sales Activity1Q 2008 – 1,7441Q 2009 – 965

Percent Change (-44.7%)

Page 26: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

ARAPAHOE – Two Distinct Markets

New Housing Market • New vs. Resale ratio: 1 in 8• SFA sales up 20%; Affordable at $231k with 36% price drop• SFD prices down 10% to $311k (lowest of all mkt areas

except NE) – VALUE IS SELLINGResale Market• SFD closings down 17% - but a Low 4.0 mo’s supply• Detached prices down 10%; Arap & NE most affordable• SFA very affordable at $113k with low 4.6 mo’s supplyEastern region faces high level of distress & remaining build-

out…prices falling dramatically. Rebound Late.Central region is healthier, but limited product diversification.

Rebound Early.

Page 27: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 27

DOUGLAS – Move-up SFD Woes

New Housing Market• New vs. Resale ratio: 1 in 4• SFD hit hard – down 52%...low supply• SFA - lowest month’s supply at 5.7 mo’s• Base prices for SFD & SFA holding steadyResale Market• SFD down 29% - One of hardest hit in metro area• Supply increases to a high 7.7 mo’s SFD • Least price discounting of all market areas (-4% – 5%)

Last to fall…Move-up SFD paralysis is stifling. Less foreclosure pressures will help this area Rebound Early.

Page 28: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

NORTHEAST – Big CorrectionsNew Housing Market• SFD sales drop dramatically (down 55%)• Most affordable new homes offered in metro Denver region• Month’s supply also low (SFA 6.8 mo’s & SFD 3.4 mo’s)• Remaining lot build-out highest in cityResale Market• Closings down but LEAST decline of all market areas • Supply drops significantly (SFD lowest supply at 3.0 mo’s) • Significant price decreases stimulating sales.• Lowest $ Housing in Metro Area - SFD @ $148,000.

Biggest surprise in the metro region. Low supplies are promising, but remaining build-out is highest in the city.

Foreclosure activity will suppress recovery. Demand will remainweak long after rebound begins. Will Rebound Late.

Page 29: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 29

NORTHWEST – Little Competition

New Housing Market• New vs. Resale ratio: 1 to 7 • SFD supplies are low. Remaining build-out concentrated

(Anthem)• Lower priced SFD projects out-performing higher priced opportunities• Immature SFA market - vulnerable w/ high inventory levelsResale Market• While closings are down, supply levels are low• Foreclosures in check

Low remaining build-out, little price depreciation and low supplies levels make this an Early Rebound Area.

Page 30: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 30

DENVER – SFA is Struggling

New Housing Market• New vs. Resale ratio: 1 in 19• Overall sales down 69% to just 85 units in 1Q09• SFD healthiest market in city. Low supplies/High $’s• SFA mo’s supply extraordinarily high (48 mo’s)Resale Market• Foreclosure pressure is high in SFA. • Look for further price erosion (down 20%) in SFA to

reduce inventory.

Healthy SFD markets points to opportunity today. SFA has had a dramatic reversal of fortune. Target markets have retreated and bloated inventory point to slow recovery.

SFD is today opportunity; SFA Will Rebound Late.

Page 31: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 31

JEFFERSON – Non-starter

New Housing Market• New vs. Resale ratio: 1 to 17• SFD sales down significantly, but $’s holding• Month’s supply levels remain comparatively high at 5.2 (SFD) and 13 mo’s (SFA)

Resale Market• SFD closings & prices erode while mo’s supply levels up• SFA holding steady with pricing & mo’s supply

Limited pipeline and land availability make this area different from the rest of the region. Can’t ignore price elasticity…but

opportunities for SFD exist now. Will rebound early.

Page 32: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 32

BOULDER / LONGMONT

New Housing Market• SFD prices UP 11%!• Sales volume down 40% and mo’s supply higher than metro averages. Glut of high priced housing.• Proves that affordability…even in under-supplied markets is critical.Resale Market• Like Douglas it looks worse statistically because it was the last to fall. Sales down 37%, inventory built up.

Prolonged recession is taking its toll on this historically immune market. Longmont has been hit particularly hard and is

responsible for weak numbers. Rebound early in most areas

Page 33: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 33

Recognizing the Bottom

Foreclosures ImprovingInterest Rates Low

Supply Conditions ImprovingApartment Market

Stability in Home PricesJob Losses & Rising UnemploymentNew Home Sales At Record Lows

Consumer Confidence At Record Lows

Page 34: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 34

Leading Indicators for 2009 Forecast

2009 Job Negative Job GrowthImpact of Distressed PropertiesNew Home Building Environment

fewer players…fewer replacement projects

access to creditlimited inventory \ restricted start paces

Bottom line: Demand for housing will remain largely unchanged…new housing will continue to erode

Page 35: Genesis%20 Housing%20 Overview%20 Presentation%20 May09

www.TheGenesisGroup.net Page 35

New Home Sales ForecastsChallenges escalate in 2009

Sources: Hanley Wood LLC, The Genesis Group

Source: The Genesis Group, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

+42%

+29%

New Production Built HousingDenver Metropolitan Area - Historical Sales Trends and Forecast

14,002

7,000

5,000

3,500

1,744

16,88917,784 17,543

5,001

965

15,704

18,75918,282

15,608

3,7243,4573,870

5,547

8,113

9,801 9,590

12,112

13,641

19,432

16,577

9,500

38%39%40% 39%32%29%30%6% 9% 13% 19% 20% 23% 23% 25% 30% 33% 39%35% 40%39%37%0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

199619971998199920002001200220

0320

04200

5200

6200

7200

81Q081Q09

2009 F

orecas

t

2010 F

orecast

2011 F

orecast

To

tal N

ew H

om

e S

alP

ercentag

e of T

otal S

a

Detached SalesAttached Sales

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Gaining Traction…Lessons to Learn By

Spire …buzz does mean something

New Beginnings …Oakwood’s recipe for affordability

KB Homes … Martha and Disney pack a powerful punch

Crescent Partners … Overcome the objections

Mike, Peter, Jennifer and JeffNever Quit…Attitude is Everything !!!

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Gaining Traction…Lessons to Learn By

Green that Saves Money...it’s here to stay

Tresana …the power of lifestyle housingTaylor Morrison, Markel Homes, McStainNeighborhoods and Amber Homes

Private Builders who increased market share in 2009

Colorado & Santa Fe …the clear winner in distressed

sales and re-branding success

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Gaining Traction…Lessons to Learn By

Richmond American Homes… Currently writing the book on how to Outwit, Outplay and

Outlast the Denver Market New Products

Balancing dirt start and inventory housing salesStrong on-site presence

CashImpairment when the market dictates

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Second Quarter 2009 Housing BriefingTuesday, May 19, 2009The Landmark Theatre

The Genesis Perspective

Gaining Clarity in a Gaining Clarity in a Chaotic MarketChaotic Market