TheWorldin2025InsightsfromMul0pleExpertDiscussions25February2016 Theworld’sleadingopenforesightprogram

TheWorldin2025Thisdocumentprovidesasummaryofwhatweheardfrommul0pleexpertvoicesaroundtheworld–onhowitischanging,whatisdrivingthischange,wherewillbetheimpactsandwhythesemayevolveoverthenextdecade.

FutureAgendaTheFutureAgendaistheworld’slargestopenforesightprogram

thataccessesmul0pleviewsofthenextdecadesowecanallbebeIerinformedands0mulateinnova0on.

LookingForwardsOrganisa0onsincreasinglywanttoiden0fyandunderstand

boththean0cipatedandunexpectedchangessothattheycanbebeIerpreparedforthefuture.

FutureAgenda1.0TopInsightsfor2020Fromthe2010program,52keyinsightsonthenextdecadeweresharedwidelyandhavebeenextensivelyusedbyorganisa0onsaroundtheworld.

FutureAgendabecametheworld’slargestopenforesightplaLorm.

FutureAgendainNumbersThefirstFutureAgendaprogrammeengagedawiderangeofviewsin

25countries.FutureAgenda2.0hasdoubledtheface-to-faceinterac0onandsignificantlyraisedonlinesharing,debateanddiscussion.

FutureAgenda1.01HOST16TOPICS25COUNTRIES50WORKSHOPS1500ORGANISATIONS

FutureAgenda2.050HOSTS24TOPICS35COUNTRIES120WORKSHOPS5000ORGANISATIONS

FutureAgenda2.0TopicsThesecondversionoftheFutureAgendaprogramtookplace

during2015andhasbeenaddressing24topicsvia120eventsin45ci0esin35countriesinpartnershipwith50corehosts.

Ci0es

Educa0on

Learning

Transport

Collabora0on

Energy

Loyalty

Travel

Company

Faith

Payments

Water

Connec0vity

Food

Privacy

Wealth

Currency

Government

Resources

Work

Ageing

Data

Health

Trade

EightKeyThemesAcrossthemul0plediscussions,60emergingissuesaretouching

uponandconnec0ngwitheightunderlying,andinterwoven,themeswithdifferentemphasisindifferentcountries.Thesearedetailedbelow.

TheCertainOes

InterconnectedSystems

TheDataRevoluOon

UnequalAccess

OurHabitat

BeliefsandBelonging

PowerandInfluence

ChangingBusiness

TheCertainOes

EverythingConnectedOver1trillionsensorsareconnectedtomul0plenetworks:everythingthatcanbenefitfromaconnec0onhasone.Wedeliver10,000xmoredata100xmoreeffec0velybutareconcernedaboutthesecurityoftheinforma0onthatflows.

ImbalancedPopulaOonGrowthAgrowingpopula0onaddsanotherbillionpeoplebutitisalsorapidlyageing:achildbornnextyearwilllive6monthslongerthanoneborntoday.Whilemigra0onhelpstorebalance,increasingdependencyra0oschallengemany.

KeyResourceConstraintsEconomic,physicalandpoli0calshortagesofkeyresourcesincreaseanddriveincreasingtensionbetweenandwithincountries.AsweexceedtheEarth’snaturalthresholds,foodandwaterreceiveasmuchfocusasoilandgas.

ShiUingPowerandInfluenceThecentreofgravityofeconomicpowercon0nuesshi_ingeastwards,backtowhereitwas200yearsago.Recentsuperpowersseektomoderatethepaceofchangebutthereali0esofpopula0onandresourceloca0onsareimmoveable.

InterconnectedSystems

AffordableHealthcareTheescala0ngcostofhealthcareisfurtherstressedbytheneedtosupporttheoldandthechronicallyill.Spending20%ofGDPonhealthcareisseenasunsustainablesoharddecisionsaretakenaroundbudgetsandpriori0es.

AirQualityRisingairpollu0oninmanyci0esiskillingpeopleandbecomesavisiblecatalystforchangingmind-setsandpoliciesacross

health,energy,transporta0onandurbandesign.

AutonomousVehiclesTheshi_tofullyautonomoustransportisanevolu0onviatruckplatoonsonhighwaysandsmallurbandeliverypods.Connectedcarscreatethenetworkandtestthetechnologiesfortheeventualrevolu0onarydriverlessexperience.

DeeperCollaboraOonPartnershipsshi_tobecomemoredynamic,long-term,democra0sed,

mul0-partycollabora0ons.Compe0toralliancesandwiderpublicpar0cipa0ondriveregulatorstocreatenewlegalframeworksforopen,empathe0ccollabora0on.

EnergyStorageStorage,andpar0cularlyelectricitystorage,isthemissingpieceintherenewablesjigsaw.Ifsolved,itcanenabletrulydistributedsolar

energyaswellasacceleratetheelectrifica0onofthetransportindustry.

FoodWaste30-50%ofourfoodiswastedeitherinthesupplychainorinconsump0onandcouldfeedanother3billion.Op0misingdistribu0onandstorageindevelopingcountriesandenablingbeIerconsumerinforma0oninotherscouldsolvethis.

IntraCityCollaboraOonIncreasingcompe00onbetweenci0esoverridesna0onalboundariesanddrives

change.TheycompetetoaIractthebestbutalsocollaboratetoavoidthedownsideofsuccess–over-crowding,under-resourcingandpollu0on.

OpenSupplyWebsTheshi_fromcentralisedproduc0ontodecentralisedmanufacturingdrivesmanytotakea‘smalleranddistributed’approach:globalsupplychainsarereplacedbymoreregional,consumer-orientatedsupplywebsandnetworks.

UrbanObesityMassurbanisa0on,reducedac0vityandpoordietsareaccelera0ngtheriseofobesity.Levelsofobesityinmostci0esaregrowingfastandtheassociatedhealthcareburdenwillsoonaccountfor5%ofglobalGDP.

TheDataRevoluOon

DataOwnershipIndividualsrecognizethevalueoftheirdigitalshadows,privacyagentscurateclients’datasetswhilepersonaldatastoresgiveustransparentcontrolofourinforma0on:Weretainmoreownershipofourdataandopttoshareit.

EnhancedPerformanceWearedevelopingkeytechnologiesthatcouldintegratehumans

anddatatomakeussafer,moreinformedandpoten0allysuper-humaninperformance-butshouldwe?

EthicalMachinesAutoma0onspreadsbeyondtradingandmanagingsystemicrisk.Asweapproachtechnologysingularity,autonomousrobotsand

smarteralgorithmsmakeethicaljudgmentsthatimpactlifeordeath.

PrivacyRegulaOonThepushtowardsglobalstandards,protocolsandgreatertransparency

isafocusformanyna0onsdrivingproac0veregula0on,butotherschoosetoopt-outofinterna0onalagreementsandgotheirownway.

TheChangingNatureofPrivacyAsprivacyisapublicissue,moreinterna0onalframeworksseektogoverntheInternet,protectthevulnerableandsecurepersonaldata:Thebalancebetween

protec0on,security,privacyandpublicgoodisincreasinglypoli0cal.

TheValueofDataAsorganisa0onstrytoretainasmuchinforma0onabouttheircustomersaspossible,databecomesacurrencywithavalueandaprice.Ittherefore

requiresamarketplacewhereanythingthatisinforma0onisrepresented.

TruthandIllusionTheInternethasdemocra0sedknowledgeandchangedthenatureofwhowetrustandwhy.Asconfidenceinlargeorganisa0onsdeclinesthesearchfortrustworthy

alterna0vesevolves.Whatwebelieveischanginghowwebehave.

UnequalAccess

AccesstoTransportThewidespreadneedforindividualstotravelshortdistancesbecomesakeyfeatureofurbandesignandregenera0on.Plannersusetransport

infrastructuretoinfluencesocialchangeandlowercarbonliving.

CapitalismChallengeUnabletoshakeissueslikeinequality,capitalistsocie0esfacecriesforchange,structuralchallengesandtechnologyenabledfreedoms.Togetherthesere-write

therulesandproposeacollabora0velandscapeofallworkingtogether.

CaringforThoseLeUBehindAlthoughsignificantprogresshasbeenmadeposi0vechangehaslimitedreach.

Millionsofpeoplecon0nuetobele_behindfrommainsteamprogress-especiallytheyoung,thepoorandthosewhoaredisadvantaged

EducaOonRevoluOonBroaderaccesstoimprovededuca0onactsasamajorcatalystfor

empowerment,sustainedeconomicgrowth,overcominginequalityandreducingconflict.Weneedaneduca0onsystemfitforthedigitalrevolu0on.

MassEngagementAsthepublicvoicebecomeseasiertoaccessandhardertosuppress,leadersseektoengagetocreate,develop,secureandmaintainlegi0macyfortheir

ini0a0vesandpolicies–sofurtherreducingtheirhierarchicalpower.

Off-GridPeoplelivingoff-grid,byinequalityorchoice,canexacerbatesocietaldivisionorimproveprivacy,healthandwellbeing.Eitherway,doingsoprovidesfer0legroundforinnova0on.

RisingYouthUnemploymentWithunemploymentratesover50%insomena0ons,accesstoworkisarisingbarrier.EspeciallyacrossNorthAfrica,theMiddleEastandsouthernEurope,alostgenera0onof100myoungpeoplefailstogainfromglobalgrowth.

ShrinkingMiddleWhiletheglobalmiddleclassgrows,intheWestincreasinginequalityforsomedrivesarela0vedeclineinmiddle-incomepopula0ons.Coupledwith

theerosionofsecurejobs,theUSinpar0cularseesasteadilyshrinkingmiddle.

OurHabitat

AcceleraOngDisplacementClimatechange,conflict,resourceshortages,inequalityandpoli0calelitesunableorunwillingtobringaboutnecessarychangealltriggerunprecedentedmigra0ontotheNorth.Overthenext50years,asmanyas1billionpeoplecouldbeonthemove.

BasicSanitaOonPoorsanita0oncon0nuestoimpactpublichealthandrestrictsocialprogress,

par0cularlyforwomen.Governmentsanddonororganisa0onspriori0semeasurement,educa0onandinnova0oninabidtodrivechange.

Built-inFlexibilityThepathtoaconnected,accessibleanddistributedinfrastructureisfraughtwithcomplex,costlyandriskyissues:Upgradingandrepurposingsystemstomakethemmoreopenpluson-goingmaintenanceneedsignificantresources.

CiOzen-CentricCiOesSuccessfulci0eswillbedesignedaroundtheneedsanddesiresofincreasinglyempoweredandenabledci0zens-whoareexpec0ngpersonalizedservicesfromtheorganisa0onsthatservethem.

FloodedCiOesThevastmajorityofourci0esarenotpreparedforflooding.Manydistrictsandhouseholdscannolongergetfloodinsuranceandareinjeopardy.

It’sgoingtogetworsebeforeitgetsbeIer.

InfrastructureDeficitInfrastructureagainbecomesasourceofcompe00veadvantage.Emerging

economiesinvestinnewrailroadsandhighwaysformoreeffec0vemovementofpeopleandgoods,whiledevelopedna0onssufferfrompoorlegacy.

Nature’sCapitalIntheAnthropocene,humankindispresidingoverthe

Earth'ssixthmajorex0nc0on.Butasbiodiversitydeclines,naturebecomesincreasinglyvaluedandvaluable.

PlasOcOceansThereareincreasinghighlevelsofman-madepollu0oninmanyoftheworld’sseasandliIleactuallydisappears.

By2050therewillbemoreplas0cthanfishintheworld’soceans.

SomeOmesNomadsElec0vemigra0on,cheaptravel,interna0onalknowledgesharingand

increasinglytransientworkingmodelscreateconnectednomadswhomixthetradi0onsofhomewiththevaluesandcustomsoftheirhostloca0on.

BeliefsandBelonging

AgelessnessAperson’sphysicalagebecomeslessimportantassocietyadaptstothenewdemographiclandscape.Newopportuni0esariseforcreatorsandconsumersofallages,thoughbenefitsareo_enonlyforthewealthy.

CareintheCommunityThedesireto‘age-in-place’meetsahealthcarereformagendathatpromotesdecentraliza0on.Anewcaremodeliscustomer-centric,caregiver-focusedandenhancescoordina0onacrosscaresehngs.

FemaleChoiceDilemmaWomeninrichereconomieshavegreaterchoice,andwithitincreased

controlandinfluence.Thiscon0nuestodrivechangeanddecision-makingbutgloballythebaIleforfemaleequalityhasalongroadtotravel.

HumanTouchAsserviceprovisionandconsump0onbecomesevermoredigital,automatedandalgorithmic,thosebrandsthatcanoffermoreemo0onalengagement

andhuman-to-humancontactbecomeincreasinglyaIrac0ve.

KeepingTheFaithAspeoplemovetheytaketheirbeliefswiththem.Formany,religionisoneofthefewremainingaspectsoftheirpreviouslife,keytotheiriden0ty-strongerthan

theci0zenshipoftheiradoptedcountryorthena0ontheyle_behind.

WorkingLongerPeoplearehavingtoworkforlongertosupportlongerre0rements.

Flexibleworkingprac0cesandpoliciesareemerging,butsomeemployerscon0nuetoremainambivalentaboutolderworkers.

PowerandInfluence

AfricaGrowthWithalandmassbiggerthanIndia,China,theUSandEuropecombined,fewdoubtthescaleoftheAfricancon0nentanditsresources.However,un0l

recently,onlysomehaveseenitasthegrowthmarketthatitisfastbecoming.

CompanieswithPurposeAstrustin‘business’declines,structuresandprac0cesoflargecorpora0onsareunderscru0ny.Businessescomeundergreaterpressuretoimprove

performanceonenvironmental,socialandgovernanceissues.

DecliningGovernmentInfluenceNa0onalgovernments’abilitytoleadchangecomesundergreaterpressurefrombothaboveandbelow-mul0na0onalorganisa0onsincreasinglysettheruleswhileci0zenstrustandsupportlocalandnetworkbasedac0ons.

Eco-CivilisaOonOverthepast40yearsChinahasgrownapace,mostlywithoutconcernfor

long-termenvironmentalimpacts.However,nowfacedwithmajorchallenges,abrightlightofsustainabledevelopmentisemerging.

RiseofNimbyGlobalisa0onoftradeandtravel,withgeopoli0calshi_sfromNorthtoSouthand

fromWesttoEast,havedeliveredmanybenefitsforsome-butarecausingclashesofculturesandaperspec0veofpoli0calretrenchmentforothers.

RiseoftheCultofChinaAsChina’seconomicinfluenceontheworldincreasesthereisariseinthecultofChinainpopularimagina0onselsewhere.MythsofbothhopeandfearwillproliferateasChina’sculturalinfluenceincreases.

StandardsDrivingTradeInterna0onalregula0onisprogressivelyaimedatfreeinguptradeandmaking

itsimplerandlessbureaucra0c–butthereareanumberofagreements,standardsandprotocolsthatsomeareseeingasincreasinglyconstraining.

SOllBeingStupidDespiteabeIerunderstandingofthelong-termchallengesweface,

weindividuallyandcollec0velycon0nuetomakedecisionsthatmaymakesenseintheshort-term-butdonotleadtobeIerlonger-termconsequences.

ChangingBusiness

CreaOveEconomyThecrea0veeconomyhelpstobuildinclusiveandsustainablecultures.What’smore,itgenerateswealth.Tobuildscaleitrequiresaworkforce

comfortablewithcollabora0on,cri0calthinkingandtheabilitytotakearisk.

CurrenciesofMeaningNewtrustedcurrenciesofexchangeandmeaningemergeto

facilitatetransac0ons,trade,authen0ca0onandvalida0on.MoneyiscomplementedbynewsystemstowhichweaIachgreatersignificance.

DigitalMoneyCashcon0nuestobegraduallyreplacedbydigitalmoney,providing

consumerswithmoreconvenienceandchoice–andorganisa0onswithlowercosttransac0ons.Wideradop0onenablesnewofferstoproliferate.

DynamicPricingThealgorithmsofAmazonandUbercrossovertoaffectmorebusinesses,

fromenergyusetoparking.Real-0metransparencyallowsbeIerpurchasingatthesame0measmarginsandyieldsareautoma0callyenhanced.

FullCostIncreasingtransparencyofsociety’srelianceonnature,intensify

requirementsforbusinesstopaythetruecostoftheresourcesprovidedby‘naturalcapital’andsocompensatefortheirnega0veimpactonsociety.

OpOmisingLastMileDeliverySeamless,integratedandsharedlast-miledeliveryreplacesinefficient

compe00onandduplica0onofgoodsdistribu0on.Greaterefficiencyinmovingthingsisasimportantasinmovingpeopleandsoamajorfocusforinnova0on.

OrganisaOon3.0NewformsofflaIer,project-based,collabora0ve,virtual,informal

organisa0onsdominate-enabledbytechnologyandamobileworkforce.Assuchthenatureofworkandtheroleoftheorganisa0onblurs.

SkillsConcentraOonsTheneedtobuildanddevelopcapabili0esbecomesincreasinglychallengingforcompaniesandworkersalike.Thosewhobenefitfromthehigh-skillrewardopportuni0esremainaselectgroupwhomoveaheadoftheurbanpack.

SpeedtoScaleGreaterglobalconnec0vity,growingconsumerwealthandbroaderreachallcombinetoacceleratethe0meto1bncustomersanda$10bnvalua0onforstart-upsandnewcorporateventuresalike.

TheRealSharingEconomyIncreasingcollabora0ondrivesorganisa0onstoreconfigurebasedonsocialnetworksandimpact.Realsharingenterprises,notdrivenbyprofits,seek

toshareresources,knowledge,anddecision-makingresponsibili0es.

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