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The World in 2025 | The Emerging View Insights from Mul0ple Expert Discussions Around the World UPDATED DRAFT SUMMARY AHEAD OF PUBLICATION
The World in 2025 | The Emerging View This document provides a summary of what we heard from mul0ple expert voices around the world – on how it is changing, what is driving this change, where will be the impacts and why these may evolve over the next decade.
Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program
that accesses mul0ple views of the next decade so all can be bePer informed and s0mulate innova0on.
Looking Forwards Organisa0ons increasingly want to iden0fy and understand
both the an0cipated and unexpected changes so that they can be bePer prepared for the future.
Future Agenda 1.0 Top Insights for 2020 From the 2010 program, 52 key insights on the next decade were shared widely and have been extensively used by organisa0ons around the world. And Future Agenda became the world’s largest open foresight plaVorm.
Future Agenda in Numbers The first Future Agenda programme engaged a wide range of views in 45 ci0es
across 35 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 has doubled the face-‐to-‐face interac0on and significantly raised online sharing, debate and discussion.
Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS
Future Agenda 2.0 50 HOSTS 25 TOPICS 35 COUNTRIES 120 WORKSHOPS 5000 ORGANISATIONS
Future Agenda 2.0 Topics The second version of the Future Agenda program is taking place during 2015 and has been addressing 20+ topics via 120 events in
45 ci0es in 35 countries in partnership with 50 core hosts.
Ageing
CiOes
Company
ConnecOvity
Data
EducaOon
Energy
Food
Government
Health
Learning
Loyalty
Payments
Privacy
Resources
Transport
Travel
Water
Wealth
Work
Eight Key Themes Across the mul0ple discussions, 75 emerging issues seem to be touching upon and connec0ng with eight underlying, and interwoven, themes with
different emphasis in different countries. These are detailed below.
The Five CertainOes
Interconnected Systems
The Data RevoluOon
Unequal Access
Our Habitat
Beliefs and Belonging
Power and Influence
Changing Business
Five CertainOes
Imbalanced PopulaOon Growth A growing popula0on is adding another billion people but it is also rapidly ageing:
A child born next year will live 6 months longer than one born today. While migra0on helps to rebalance some socie0es, increasing dependency ra0os challenge all.
Resource Constraints Economic, physical and poli0cal shortages of key resources increase and drive
increasing tension between and within countries. As we exceed the Earth’s natural thresholds, waste is seen as a resource and we start to properly value it.
Everything Connected By 2025 over 1 trillion sensors are connected to mul0ple networks: Everything that can benefit from a connec0on will have one. We deliver 10,000x more data 100x
more effec0vely but need to make sense of the informa0on that flows.
ShiVing Power and Influence The centre of gravity of economic power con0nues shicing eastwards, back to where it was 200 years ago. Recent superpowers seek to moderate the pace of change but the reali0es of popula0on and resource loca0ons are immoveable.
The Human Age We in an age where we are having an irrecoverable long-‐term impact on the planet. The Anthroprocene is the era when many geologically significant condi0ons and
processes are profoundly altered by human ac0vi0es – and it is underway.
Interconnected Systems
Air Quality Rising air pollu0on in many emerging ci0es is killing people and becomes the visible catalyst for changing mind-‐sets. It drives public support for new
policies across health, energy, transporta0on and urban design.
Autonomous Transport The shic to fully autonomous transport is an evolu0on via truck platoons on
highways and small electric urban delivery pods. Connected cars create the network and test the technologies for the eventual revolu0onary driverless experience.
Connected Systems As the land / food / energy / water nexus comes to the fore, the interconnec0ons of mul0ple supply and demand drivers of change are more evident. Water and
food security join energy security as a key concern for major urban areas.
Energy Storage We will see substan0al improvements in energy storage leading to accelerated growth in renewable energy, especially solar power, with the adop0on of smart
grids and micro-‐grids enabling the long-‐term transforma0on of the energy system.
Intra City CollaboraOon As ci0es con0nue to grow in their importance and wider influence, they take the lead on integrated innova0ons and new developments to differen0ate themselves
and sustain their ability to aPract residents, visitors and commerce.
Food Waste The 30-‐50% of food wasted either in the supply chain or in consump0on could feed
another 3 billion every day. Focus is on using data to op0mise distribu0on and storage in developing countries and enabling bePer consumer informa0on in others.
Urban Obesity Mass urbanisa0on, reduced ac0vity and poor diets are accelera0ng the rise of obesity. As half the global popula0on is overweight, levels of obesity in most ci0es are growing fast and the associated healthcare burden will soon account for 5% of global GDP.
Healthcare Systemic Shock The escala0ng cost of healthcare in some countries is further stressed by suppor0ng aging and obesity. Spending 20% of GDP on healthcare is seen as unsustainable so hard decisions are taken around personal budgets and societal priori0es.
Deeper CollaboraOon Partnerships shic to become more dynamic, agile, long-‐term, democra0sed and
mul0-‐party collabora0ons. Compe0tor alliances and wider public par0cipa0on drive regulators to create new legal frameworks for open, empathe0c collabora0on.
Supply Webs The shic from centralised produc0on to decentralised manufacturing drives many to take the ‘smaller and distributed’ approach: Global supply chains are replaced by more regional, consumer-‐orientated supply webs and networks.
The Data RevoluOon
The Increasing Value of Data As organisa0ons grab more data, it becomes a currency with a value and a price: It therefore requires marketplaces – transparent ecosystems for trading data
-‐ so anything that is informa0on is represented in data marketplaces.
Data Ownership Individuals recognize the value of their digital shadows, privacy agents and data
brokers curate clients’ data sets while personal data stores give us transparent control of our informa0on: We retain more ownership of our data and opt to share it.
The Changing Nature of Privacy More interna0onal frameworks seek to govern the Internet, protect the vulnerable and secure personal data: The balance between government protec0on, security,
personal privacy and public good is an increasingly poli0cal issue.
ShiVing Public PercepOons of Privacy Privacy becomes a mainstream issue with ci0zens more aware of how their data is being used. What is private and what is public blurs but many seek
to have greater influence over how their data is collected and used.
Managing Data Risk In an increasingly connected world, risks also rise. Protec0on against hacking,
cyber-‐aPacks, fraud and counterfei0ng all drive greater security, data management and regula0on -‐ but this is balanced by the pull of convenience and data sharing.
Privacy for OrganisaOons As privacy becomes ever more present in the corporate risk profile, trust is ever more easily lost. Being proac0ve in dialogue with both regulators
and the public becomes a priority for many leading organisa0ons.
Privacy RegulaOon The push towards global standards, protocols and greater transparency
is a focus for many na0ons, but others choose to opt-‐out of interna0onal agreements and go their own way.
Ethical Machines Machines are as smart as humans as automa0on spreads beyond trading and drones to driverless cars and managing systemic risk. As we approach technology singularity, autonomous robots and algorithms make ethical judgments that impact life or death.
Greater Transparency Transparency becomes a catalyst for change and a baPleground for reputa0on enhancement. Societal and consumers’ expecta0ons of more open visibility of corporate and government ac0vi0es start to balance informa0on asymmetry.
Truth and Illusion As authors become more numerous, the nature of who we trust and why con0nues to evolve. Credible sources are prized and help us to priori0se true insight above
informa0on overload. We increasingly seek to clarify veracity.
Enhanced Performance The widespread adop0on of wearables, implants and greater connec0vity to
ever more data, enables some of us to gain advantage over others by improving our performance beyond our natural, gene0c capability.
Unequal Access
Inequality of Access Views of the widening gaps between the ‘haves and have-‐nots’ extend beyond wealth inequality to cover access to water, healthcare, educa0on and digital connec0vity.
We increasingly see access inequality as a common social challenge.
Rising Youth Unemployment With unemployment rates already over 50% in some na0ons, access to work is a rising barrier to many. Especially across North Africa, the Middle East and southern Europe,
a lost genera0on of 100m fails to connect with and gain from global growth.
Mass Engagement As the public voice becomes easier to access and harder to suppress, leaders need to engage to create, develop, secure and maintain legi0macy for their
ini0a0ves and policies – so further reducing their hierarchical power.
Democracy Challenge While many con0nue to defend the principles and benefits of democracy, some see increasing signs of challenge to it as it fails to address some of the major
challenges facing the world. Alterna0ves are more ac0vely explored.
Shrinking Middle We see the decline of middle-‐men, middle classes and mid-‐sized companies as value chains reform, personalisa0on rises and assets are shared while
smaller networked organisa0ons achieve greater reach and agility.
Buying Out People living off-‐grid, increasingly by choice, creates greater societal division and strain as well as new commercial opportuni0es. Independence from government and energy networks and the rise of new tribes fuel this shic.
EducaOon RevoluOon Networked schools and learning plaVorms encourage self-‐organised educa0on for all. Teachers provide prompts, not answers, and help students learn from one another. Non-‐linear high content learning becomes the global norm.
Caring For Those LeV Behind Although significant progress has been made, millions of people con0nue to be lec behind from mainsteam progress -‐ especially the poorest and those disadvantaged
because of their sex, age, disability, ethnicity or geographic loca0on.
Transport Access Transport is an influencer of society and is undergoing a transi0on centred less on vehicles -‐ specifically the car -‐ and more on the mix of integrated transport op0ons, proximity of online availability to the goods and services that society demands.
Mental Health The visible impact and cost of mental health drives changes in social aktudes and wider healthcare support. New treatment approaches are coupled with the decline of s0gma in many circles around mental illness and its effects.
Our Habitat
Housing Everyone Mass migra0on and localised popula0on explosions drive up the cost of both
housing access and home ownership. In many ci0es, this leads to the development of new living spaces and ownership models that try to accommodate more of us.
Unchartered Waters The issues facing oceans have led to the establishment of a UN Sustainable
Development Goal dedicated to ocean conserva0on. As problems become more visible to many we will see increased recogni0on of the need for bePer governance.
Infrastructure Deficit Infrastructure again becomes a source of compe00ve advantage. Emerging economies invest heavily in new railroads and highways to facilitate more effec0ve movement of people and goods, while developed na0ons suffer from poor upkeep of the legacy.
Dispersed Tribes Globalisa0on, greater connec0vity and ‘informa0on at your finger0ps’ help more individuals and industries share knowledge and work collabora0vely. The next genera0on of workers lead a more transient and nomadic life.
CiOes as Products The most successful ci0es are specifically designed around the desires and
needs of their increasingly empowered ci0zens who, in turn, expect a healthily, personalised and meaningful rela0onship with their urban environment.
Nature Biodiversity The global biodiversity decline will con0nue unless ac0ons are taken on a significant scale. We will see greater focus on understanding the impact and so pukng in place
na0onal plans to protect and restore biodiversity -‐ but will it be enough?
Simple Tale of Country Folk For some, increasing urbanisa0on leads to a growing nostalgia for rural life.
Sani0sed ‘nature’ is recreated in the city while the countryside is lec to large-‐scale farmers, the weak, the elderly and those who can afford to recreate arcadia.
Basic SanitaOon Despite major ini0a0ves, basic sanita0on is a gap for many na0ons and prevents wider social progress: Female educa0on stops at puberty, open public defeca0on
con0nues, water is contaminated and overall public health suffers as a consequence.
Preparing for Resilience As we move forward wider recogni0on of adapta0on to climate change plays an increasingly important role in defining and shaping both governmental
and business aktudes and risk strategies.
AcceleraOng Displacement A faster changing climate and rapidly increasing inequali0es of opportunity add to conflict as s0mulus for mass migra0on north at an unprecedented scale.
Over 1 billion are on the move over the next 20 years.
Beliefs and Belonging
Working Longer For those who have inadequate re0rement savings, the most obvious solu0on is to work longer. One major poten0al barrier, however,
is that employers remain ambivalent about older workers.
Agelessness Culture catches up with demographics and age-‐based limita0ons fade. New
opportuni0es for older people to par0cipate in society emerge, although many are only available to the healthy and wealthy, crea0ng a new set of challenges.
Aging in Community Individuals, families as well as healthcare payers desire to keep older
people living healthy and independent loner. This requires upgraded infrastructure, transporta0on systems and thoughVul products and services.
Care for the Aging As the popula0on ages, the healthcare sector changes the way in which it delivers
support, with more coordina0on among service providers and more in-‐home care. There is also a frank conversa0on about people’s “right to die”.
Human Touch As service provision and consump0on becomes ever more digital, automated and algorithmic, those brands that can offer more emo0onal engagement
and human to human contact become increasingly aPrac0ve.
The Age of Women In many regions, women have greater control, influence and increased leadership
par0cipa0on. This changes decision-‐making, strengthens the representa0on of the feminine view and helps to drive more balanced ac0ons.
Finding Hope Despite desperate hardship and widespread expecta0ons of social and environmental disasters, the belief in human endeavour remains. Many think that the solu0ons for
our current challenges are at our finger0ps – but will they benefit everyone?
Faith and IdenOty As faith evolves to encompass greater geographical diversity, new sub-‐religions and a rekindling of tradi0onal belief systems, it becomes more significant as part of some people’s iden0ty – and stronger than ci0zenship and na0onal iden0ty.
Power and Influence
Influence of Government The influence of na0onal and state governments recede as the solu0ons to problems are solved elsewhere. Mul0na0onal corpora0on partnerships
and global NGO bodies increasingly set the direc0on of travel.
Standards ProtecOng Trade Global and regional standards are used as a tool of trade protec0onism within specific sectors and markets. Locally focused regula0ons and interna0onal protocols favour
both mul0na0onals and incumbents but are barriers to new exporters.
Africa Growth Despite concerns around governance and corrup0on, the aPrac0on of rising
popula0ons, a growing workforce, 500m new middle class consumers and con0nued resource supplies aPract mul0ple global brands to make Africa the #1 target market.
Cyber Terrorism Catastrophe-‐driven change is a func0on of 21st century living, par0cularly with respect to cyber threats to society and commerce. The race is on to see if we will contribute
effec0vely in these areas or require disaster to spark our collec0ve response.
SOll Being Stupid Despite a bePer understanding of the long-‐term challenges we face, we
individually and collec0vely con0nue to make decisions that may make sense in the short-‐term -‐ but do not lead to bePer longer-‐term consequences.
New Walled Gardens While Globalisa0on has enabled many to explore and experience different countries and cultures, some start to build virtual and physical walls to keep people away. The intrusion of mass visitors is tolerated only when there is direct economic benefit.
Rise of the Cult of China As China’s economic influence on the world increases there is a rise in the cult of China in popular imagina0ons elsewhere. Myths of hope and fear will proliferate as China’s cultural and economic influence increase hand-‐in-‐hand.
Purpose of Companies Successful organisa0ons align their purpose with addressing specific societal and stakeholder needs and move beyond just focusing on crea0ng shareholder value.
A mul0-‐capital approach to integrated repor0ng takes hold and spreads.
Out of Sight Criminals and non-‐criminals alike are moving from the public and personal spaces to the anonymous and impersonal spaces of the dark net. Anonymity is aPrac0ve to many but many of the shicing sub-‐cultures are increasingly difficult to access.
Changing Business
Global Skill ConcentraOons Localised needs for specialist skills drive greater white-‐collar migra0on leading to more geographic concentra0on of skills in global hubs. High skill / high reward
opportuni0es aPract a select nomadic group who move ahead of the mainstream.
Speed to Scale Greater global connec0vity, growing average consumer wealth, broader reach
and the adop0on of standard plaVorms all combine to accelerate the 0me to 1bn customers for start-‐ups and new corporate ventures alike.
Full Cost The next decade will see an increasing requirement for business to pay the full cost of
ac0vi0es leading to a reassessment of risk, return and the rela0onship between people, planet and profit. Surprisingly this may be accelerated by ini0a0ves in China.
The Sharing Economy Increasing collabora0on drives companies to re-‐organise based on social networks. The sharing economy changes the shape of many organisa0ons, but the shic in
the role of the company from employer to facilitator challenges many.
Dynamic Pricing Big Data and predic0ve analy0cs help to set pricing at a more granular level based on customer demand and supply informa0on. This enables providers to re-‐price millions of products in real-‐0me, taking advantage of greater transparency of cost and value.
Standards Driving InnovaOon Across key areas standards increasingly drive innova0on. From sustainability metrics for new ci0es in China to Formula E driving developments in the automo0ve sector, we will see new a rac of innova0ons that evolve in response to proac0ve regula0on.
Digital Money Cash is gradually replaced by digital money providing consumers with more
convenience and choice – and organisa0ons with lower cost transac0ons. Wider adop0on enables new offers to proliferate – including in the black economy.
Currencies of Meaning New trusted currencies of exchange and meaning emerge to bePer facilitate
transac0ons, trade, authen0ca0on and valida0on. Money as a means of exchange is complemented by new / tradi0onal systems to which we aPach greater significance.
OrganisaOon 3.0 New forms of flaPer, project-‐based, collabora0ve, virtual, informal
organisa0ons dominate -‐ enabled by technology and a global mobile workforce. As such the nature of work and the role of organisa0on itself blurs.
Last Mile Delivery Seamless, integrated and shared last-‐mile delivery replaces inefficient compe00on and duplica0on of goods distribu0on: Greater efficiency in moving things is as important as efficiency in moving people and so a major focus for innova0on.
Curators and Coaches Smarter mobile technology and increasing automa0on redefine professional roles -‐ turning teachers, doctors and lawyers into coaches and mentors as
individuals of all ages increasingly navigate connected pathways.
Some QuesOons
Some QuesOons We have curated these 86 drac issues out of over 750 insights gained from
100+ discussions around the world. We may not have covered everything and may have included things we should not?
Four QuesOons for you: 1. Which of these issues are the most important for you?
2. What is missing from this view that ought to be included?
3. Do the groups make sense and if not what should we change?
4. Are there images that don’t work for you and what would be bePer?
Let us know your views on [email protected]
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