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© 2013, Prosper®
sentiment strategy
august 2013
Disclaimer: Prosper Business Development and its affiliated companies (“Prosper”) make no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained from any source; the present or future methodology employed in producing the statistics; or the data and estimates represent only the opinion of Prosper and reliance thereon and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.
back-to-school
© 2013, Prosper®
sentiment
Source: Monthly Consumer Survey
consumer confidence economic sentiment weakens in August, with those
confident/very confident in chances for a strong economy down 2 points from July at 37.8%
very confident/confident in chances for a strong economy {adults 18+}
13 month summary current reading a bit of a setback, but overall direction
over the past year is still positive
one year ago, though, confidence was in the middle of a two month climb – the last time two consecutive months
of increase was recorded (Jul-Aug-Sept ’12)
34.0%
37.8%
30%
32%
34%
36%
38%
40%
42%
© 2013, Prosper®
sentiment
Source: Monthly Consumer Survey
very confident/confident in chances for a strong economy {adults 18+}
silver lining? August’s reading is the highest reading recorded for the
month since the recession began
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13
consumer confidence economic sentiment weakens in August, with those
confident/very confident in chances for a strong economy down two points from July at 37.8%
13 month summary current reading a bit of a setback, but overall direction
over the past year is still positive
one year ago, though, confidence was in the middle of a two month climb – the last time two consecutive months
of increase was recorded (Jul-Aug-Sept ’12)
debt ceiling crisis ‘11
© 2013, Prosper®
strategy
Source: Monthly Consumer Survey
practicality & focus on needs {adults 18+}
pragmatic purchasing to continue… while practicality declined 3 points from July,
the indicator remains in line with Aug-12, despite the YOY increase in confidence
52.0%
50.8%
43.5% 44.0%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
I have become more practical and realistic in my purchases
I focus more on what I NEED rather than what I WANT
majority still focus on needs about 51% focus on just the necessities when at the
store, down just a point from a year ago
indicative of the cautious spending attitudes among consumers…
© 2013, Prosper®
strategy in the news…
© 2013, Prosper®
back-to-school
overview planned BTS spending drops about $50 from 2012,
though still tracking ahead of recession-riddled years
planned household spending {adults 18+ who shop for back-to-school}
Source: National Retail Federation/Prosper Insights & Analytics™
$594 $549
$606 $604
$689 $635
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
© 2013, Prosper®
back-to-school planned spending by holiday {in billions}
Source: National Retail Federation/Prosper Insights & Analytics™
BTS connection to holiday?
$579.8
$72.6
$20.7
$18.6
$17.2
$13.3
$12.3
$8.0
$4.7
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600
Winter Holidays*
Back-to-School/College
Mother's Day
Valentine's Day
Easter
Father's Day
Super Bowl
Halloween
St. Patrick's Day
* NRF estimate of Winter Holiday sales, defined as retail industry sales in the months of November and December.
overview planned BTS spending drops about $50 from 2012,
though still tracking ahead of recession-riddled years
both seasons mean BIG business
to retailers
© 2013, Prosper®
back-to-school planned household spending {adults 18+ who shop for back-to-school}
Source: National Retail Federation/Prosper Insights & Analytics™
3 out of 10 US Adults 18+
shop for Back-to-School
9 out of 10 U.S. Adults 18+
celebrate Winter Holidays
not from a spending perspective:
1. BTS shoppers represent a much smaller subset of the Adult population compared to Holiday
2. BTS shopping is primarily needs-based, while Holiday shopping is rooted in discretionary spending
Needs-based: purchases justified as
“essential”
Wants-based: just because you want it doesn’t mean you’ll get it
vs.
overview planned BTS spending drops about $50 from 2012,
though still tracking ahead of recession-riddled years
BTS connection to holiday?
© 2013, Prosper®
back-to-school planned household spending {adults 18+ who shop for back-to-school}
Source: National Retail Federation/Prosper Insights & Analytics™
driven by promotions, excited by sales, but balanced by budgets
not from a spending perspective:
1. BTS shoppers represent a much smaller subset of the Adult population compared to Holiday
2. BTS shopping is primarily needs-based, which Holiday shopping is rooted in discretionary spending
overview planned BTS spending drops about $50 from 2012,
though still tracking ahead of recession-riddled years
BTS connection to holiday?
what can we learn from BTS? similar shopping behaviors, patterns
savvy showroomers, armed with mobile devices
early bird shoppers, thanks to the “creep”
© 2013, Prosper®
thanks
visit ______________________to access: Consumer Snapshot InsightCenter™ PowerPoint Slides …and more
Pam Goodfellow Consumer Insights Director
Prosper Insights & Analytics™ [email protected] ProsperDiscovery.com
ConsumerSnapshot.com
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