Challenges To Mass Transit Implementation And Methods To Support Project Viability And Success Experience In Rapidly Developing Cities

Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to

Support Project Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

Richard Di Bona

LLA Consultancy Ltd, Hong Kong

Urban Transportation Summit 2010

Kuwait City, 11 October 2010

Contents

1. Introduction: Mass Transit, Rapid Development

2. Urban form and development density

3. Inter-modal integration: “social need” & “legacy” networks versus “mode shifting”

4. Uncertainty and forecast perspectives

5. Value-capture opportunities

6. Transport policy: short term constraints and long term opportunities

Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

What do we mean by mass transit?

• Commuter rail

• Metro/ MRT/ MTR

• LRT (Light Rail or Light Rapid Transit)

• Monorail

• Tram

• Bus Rapid Transit


Any other terms or forms?

Some issues specific to certain systems (e.g. track sharing (rail), signal coordination)

But many basic principles are pretty similar

Examples of Mass Transit


Hong Kong Soure: wikipedia.org

Dubai Source: wikipedia.org

Tehran

Tianjin, China

Bangkok (Skytrain) Bangkok (Subway)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dubai_Metro.JPG

Examples of LRT & Monorail


Tuen Mun, Hong Kong Source: wikipedia.org

Kuala Lumpur (Putra/ Kelana Jaya LRT)

Kuala Lumpur Monorail Mashhad LRT, Iran

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:LRT_Double_751.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UrbanRailwayMSHD.jpg

What defines “rapid development”?

Once again, many possible definitions.


For example:

• Rapid population growth (people or %)

• Rapid economic growth (demand for travel and cars escalating)

• Substantial redevelopment: new population &/or business centres; new satellite towns

• Often all of the above at once!

Any other types?

Cost versus Capacity

Source: Montassar DRAIEF-SYSTRA; World Bank


Urban Form & Development Density

• Determines realistic potential patronage and requirements for feeder services

• High density, ribbon development is ideal

• Concentrates demand onto corridors, either: – Naturally (Hong Kong); or,

– Strong advance planning (Curitiba, Brazil)

• Strong planning coordination (Singapore)

• Does your city have an appropriate institutional framework to plan, co-ordinate, manage land use-transit interaction?


High Density Ribbon Development


Above and Right: Hong Kong Below: Curitiba, Brazil (Curitiba courtesy of Alan Cannell)

Relationship to City Development


Above and Right: Curitiba, Brazil Below: Mashhad, Iran


• High density within/ near to mass transit corridor(s) and especially stations

• Insert mass transit close to (through) existing high density areas

• Maximises system catchment

• Moving forwards, concentrate on Transit Oriented Development (“TOD”)



• When “retro-fitting” mass transit, routes may broadly follow alignments of key highways: – Abu Dhabi Metro along middle of Island (forthcoming);

– Dubai Metro with Sheikh Zayed Highway; and,

– Hong Kong MTR along Nathan Road (Kowloon) & Connaught/ Queen’s/ Hennessy Roads (HK Island)


Left & Centre: Hong Kong Below: Abu Dhabi (source: Abu Dhabi Surface

Transport Master Plan, Abu Dhabi DOT)

Inter-Modal Integration

Fractal approach:

• Begin with strategic routes/ demand analysis

• Then feeder modes/ routes

• Potential congestion issues (transit & traffic)

• Then work downwards to “short distance” issues: station interchange and pedestrian – short distance issues often under-prioritised

Interchange is undesirable relative to point-to-point journeys, so minimise inconvenience


Inter-Line Integration/ Rivalry

Where different lines are developed by different concessionaires, sadly there is a track-record of concessionaires wrongly believing that they are in competition with one another!

• Interchange made difficult, both vertically and/ or horizontally

• Resistance to common ticketing/ fares system

• Undermines strategies to integrate transit

• Retro-fitting interchange is difficult and costly


Inter-Line Integration/ Rivalry Examples include: • Kuala Lumpur (horizontal & vertical):

– Putra/ Kelana Jaya LRT – Star/ Ampang LRT – Monorail

• Bangkok (primarily vertical): – BTS Skytrain – MRTA Blue Line Subway

• Manila (primarily horizontal): – LRT lines: walkway between systems, not integrated

Malaysia has now nationalised all 3 lines. Future lines now predicated upon better interchange


Inter-Modal Integration: Short Distance

To interchange at KL Sentral Station from Monorail:


Pedestrian Designs: Tehran & Mashhad


Pedestrian Designs: KL Monorail


Climate / Air-Conditioning


Without Air-Conditioning:

Bangkok Skytrain (left)

KL Monorail (right)

Air-Con at some/ all stations:

Bangkok Blue Line (left)

KL Kelana Jaya LRT

(right)

Inter-Modal Integration: Phasing As cities develop and as transport networks are implemented, especially rapid transit lines: • Strategic demands will evolve • Feeder requirements will evolve • Principal of building up public transport demand:

buses until rapid transit implemented • Congestion issues may change • Don’t forget to design interchanges and

pedestrian links for every phase of development Remember: in rapidly evolving cities, patterns are prone to change and subject to uncertainty


Inter-Modal Integration


A possible check-list (not complete):

• How easy to change platforms? Ideally, cross-platform – try to avoid long walks

• Minimise vertical distances

• How easy to interchange with bus or taxi?

• How good are the buses? Comfort, frequency, routes, speed, interchange rebates?

• How good are bus waiting areas?

• Pedestrian crossings (safety vs. too many steps)

Which of these can be realistically captured in transport models?

Legacy Networks: Social Need vs Mode Shift

Cities may have bus networks tailored to how the cities used to be structured, not structured to today’s or tomorrow’s transport demands

• Existing routes amended

• Short-distance add-on routes

• Passengers may have to make numerous interchanges

• Often characterised by many small operators and/or government-controlled bureaucratic operators



Re-organisation may face political resistance

And can be complex: re-organising all at once:

• Franchises;

• Route structures;

• Modes (e.g. minibus, shared taxi);

• Depot/ terminal/ interchange locations; and,

• Possibly, also regulatory institutions.



Raises fundamental questions:

• Affordable social need transport; or

• Attractive transport to persuade drivers out of their cars?

Twin-networks are a theoretical answer, but hard to implement in practice (competition, coordination, branding)


Uncertainty & Forecast Perspectives

Transport demand forecasts in general are beset with uncertainty, including:

• Land use/ planning data

• Economic growth

• Population growth

• Vehicle ownership

• Transport policy variables, including tolls and fares

• Timing of competing & feeder routes



• In rapidly developing cities all of these variables are inherently more uncertain

• And in many (most?) cases, there is not a tradition of robust data collection and modelling spanning decades (Hong Kong and Singapore are rare exceptions)

• Remember: transport models are tools to assist decision making, not substitutes for evaluation!



A wide range of scenarios should be evaluated, in terms of:

• Possible land use, economic, population growth, etc

• Network configurations (affecting any route under consideration)

• Transport policy options

Both to aid in deciding on land use, network, policy and to evaluate demand envelope of projects


Uncertainty & Forecast Perspectives A spread of probability:

• Central Case (for transport planning)

• Low Case (for financing) – remember ramp up!

• High Case (for station design/ system sizing)




2015 2020 2025 2030

Central Case

Low Case

Maximum LikelyDemand Model

Value-Capture Opportunities

• Property development (Hong Kong model)

• Shops in stations (but don’t congest stations)

• Advertising, but perhaps not too much:

– Livery adverts can interfere with branding

– Obtrusive advertising can be unpopular

• Joint ticketing


Transport Policy In the long term anything is possible:

• Great opportunities, perhaps

• But consider what is feasible

As, in the short term constraints are the norm:

• Political unacceptability of “stick” measures on car usage

• Election cycles: can de-rail initiatives

• Resistance to reorganisation

• Takes time to reform institutions

• Land resumption/ compensation/ resettlement


Transport Policy: Institutions

• Institutions are often a legacy of old structures and norms

• Unclear, overlapping, conflicting or missing responsibilities

• Unable to cope with rapid change, to respond quickly


Transport Policy: Institutions

• Problems in rapidly developing countries

• Unclear, overlapping, conflicting or missing responsibilities

• Unable to cope with rapid change, to respond quickly

• Successful re-organisations have happened, e.g. Singapore LTA and in recent years many in the Middle East, e.g. UAE NTA, Dubai RTA, Abu Dhabi DOT, and Prasarana in Malaysia


Transport Policy: Key Questions

• How bold must you be with policy to be sustainable and support rapid transit?

• How bold can you be with policy to be sustainable and support rapid transit?

• If you cannot be bold enough within the current environment, then change will be required before it is too late!


Concluding Comments

• It could be said that problems in rapidly developing cities are as per other cities

• But the scale of problems is often far greater and growing more quickly than in more stable cities

• However, new land use developments present the opportunity to “design in” rapid transit (TOD)

• Rapid development can sometimes better spur the adoption of supporting policies


Thank You


Richard Di Bona

Director, LLA Consultancy Ltd (Hong Kong)

and Independent Consultant

[email protected]; [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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Challenges To Mass Transit Implementation And Methods To Support Project Viability And Success Experience In Rapidly Developing Cities