PANDEMIC INFLUENZA

“This continues to represent the most significant civil emergency risk”

The relative likelihood of a serious influenza pandemic occurring within the next five years is believed to be between 1-in-20 and 1-in-2.

The consequences are likely to be catastrophic !

PANDEMIC INFLUENZA

“Up to half the UK population may become infected with between 50,000 and 750,000 additional deaths by the end of a pandemic”

“When we think of the major threats to our national security, the first to come to mind are nuclear proliferation, rogue states and global terrorism. But another kind of threat lurks beyond our shores, one from nature, not humans – an avian flu pandemic. An outbreak could cause millions of deaths, destabilize Southeast Asia (its likely place of origin), and threaten the security of governments around the world.”

Barack Obama

SUB TITLE

Potentially the biggest survival challenge facing

organisations

Is this overstating the case ?

www.ITGP.co.uk

Comparison of 20th

century naturaldisasters and the

resultant fatalities

NB. Seasonal influenza typically kills 500,000 worldwide per annum

SARS AND HONG KONG

SARS FACT SHEET

THE GROWING THREAT FROM EBOLA

PANDEMIC – SOME CAUSES OF ABSENTEEISM

• Infected by the pandemic contagion• Post viral fatigue• Carers looking after sick family members• Parents looking after children due to school closures• Quarantine (NB. 25,000 quarantined in Toronto and 18,000 in

Beijing during 2002-3 SARS outbreak) • People vulnerable to influenza who have existing medical

conditions, such as asthma, kidney disease, and heart disease or those with a weakened immune system

• Public transport disruption• Staff who are simply afraid to come to work• Mobilisation of reserve forces and emergency services (e.g.

special constables etc.)

PANDEMIC – POTENTIAL ORGANISATION AL IMPACTS

• Staff absenteeism (NB. this will invariably include key staff)• Critical Infrastructure failures• Supply chain disruption (upstream and downstream)• Cash flow issues – can you pay staff and suppliers• Business travel curtailment• Dealing with sickness at work – duty of care for other

employees• The need to introduce social distancing may be disruptive• Dealing with the death of an employee • Do you visit next of kin ?• Supporting traumatised employees • Death in service – will your insurer pay up ?

• No moratorium on non-pandemic related disasters

PANDEMIC – HOW DO YOU VALIDATE YOUR PLAN ?

• Consider exercises with randomly selected ‘sick’ employees

• Exercise your Business Continuity Plans simulating a workforce depleted by a pandemic (e.g. perform an ICT Disaster Recovery, a long term denial of access situation, a product recall or a distributed denial of service (DDoS) cyber-attack etc. with as little as a 50% workforce availability which has been randomly selected )

CONCLUSION

Is a pandemic

“Potentially the biggest survival challenge facing organisations?”