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ANNUAL DS CONFERENCE- US REAL ESTATE
Alon Solomon- C.E.OAsaf Arieli-Business Development Manager
Just saw recruiting billboard (by AOL) on 101 for the first time in years. Great sign that 2011 will be prosperous for many.January 1 at 1:56am via Twitter · Like · Comment · @paglo on Twitter
Are things getting better?
Real Estate Market in the US
• Macro economics conditions
• Capital Markets
• Real estate Market conditions
• What the does the future holds for the US economy?
• What should you invest in?
• Global Paragon
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
The Good• U.S. GDP back to 2007 levels• S&P 500 is up for straight two years• Retail Sales excluding auto & gas up $12.6B from pre-recession levels• Bush Tax cuts are extended• The Private Sector added 1.3M jobs in 2010• Corporate Profits up $48B from previous peak in 3Q 2006• ISM manufacturing index is up 17% from pre-recession levels
The Bad• Unemployment Rate at 9.4% or double 2007 levels• Consumer Confidence remains 42% below pre-recession levels• Net Exports down 10% from pre-recession levels• Single-Family home sales 35% below 2005 peak• Single-Family home prices down 23% from the 2006 peak
The Ugly• Household Debt remains elevated at 91% GDP• Public Debt, at 92% of GDP, is the highest level since WW2• Creation of Government job vs. Free market jobs• Political Uncertainty: New health care costs, new taxes, what will Obama do next?
Sources: BLS, BEA, ISM, U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Macro Economics Data and trends
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services,, U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Retail sales have recovered from dramatic drop
Sources: BLS
Private sector job growth, one calendar year following end of recession
U.S. employment change by sector 2010
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS
Increase in Government jobs and benefits
Sources: The Economist, George Washington University, White house office if information and regulatory affairs
Capital spending by corporate America is key to recovery – profit trend positive
Sources: BEA
Companies still hesitant to add long-term jobs
Sources: BLS
Single-Family Housing and condo market yet to enter sustainable recovery
Sources: National association of RELATORS
Threat of Deflation dominating current FED agenda
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, BLS, Federal Reserve Board
An Economy in transition U.S. GDP growth past, present and future
Sources: BEA, Economy.com
Sources: BLS
Employment growth is Expected to gain momentum in 2011 and 2012
Sources: REIS, BLS
Quarterly Job growth vs. Apartment units absorbed
Sources: BLS
20-34 year olds share of job losses/gains
Apartment metro forecast vacancy ranking 2011
Sources: Reis
US Federal Debt as Percent of GDP- near WWII levels
Capital Markets overview and outlook
Sources: Reis
Core Inflation vs. 10-Year Treasury
Can Mortgage Rates be as high as the 80s level?
Sources: FreddieMac
Mortgage Crisis Overview- Secondary Market- Competition
Home Buyer
Mortgage Bank
Home ValuationIncome Check
Home Buyer
Israel Market US Market
Repayments
Mortgage Loans
Repayments
Mortgage LoansBrokersAppraisers
Key
SafeguardsBank ChecksIndependent Checks
Cash Flow
Mortgage Bank A
Mortgage Bank B
Mortgage Bank C
Mortgage Bank D
Mortgage Bank E
Home Buyer
Mortgage Bank
Home ValuationIncome Check
Mortgage Bond Market
Mortgage Bank
Home Buyer
Israel Market US Market
Repayments
Mortgage Loans
Repayments
Mortgage Loans
Acquisition of Mortgage Pool
Mortgage Pool Cash Flow
BrokersAppraisers
Rating Agencies
Key
SafeguardsBank ChecksIndependent Checks
Cash Flow
Mortgage Crisis Overview- Secondary Market- Securitization
Home Buyer
Mortgage Bank
Home ValuationIncome Check
Mortgage Bond Market
Mortgage Bank
Home Buyer
Israel Market US Market
Repayments
Mortgage Loans
Repayments
Mortgage Loans
Acquisition of Mortgage Pool
Mortgage Pool Cash Flow
BrokersAppraisers
Rating Agencies
Key
SafeguardsBank ChecksIndependent Checks
Cash Flow
Mortgage Crisis Overview- Secondary Market- Securitization what went wrong?
• 2/28 loans• Below 620 Credit Score• NINJA loans• Financial Engineering
The rise of the sub-prime mortgage market
The sub-prime aftermath
Multi-family mortgage debt outstanding
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MBA
Sources: MBA
U.S. Commercial Mortgage delinquency rates by lender type
Total Multi-family mortgage debt outstanding: $847B
Sources: MBA
Sources: Commercial Mortgage Alert
U.S. Commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) Issuance
What will be in the future....?
Hard to tell
....We can only guess and estimate
: אחת דיעה , , טכנולוגי' בחיזוי המתמחה עתידן פסיג דוד פרופ
" " - צעירה מעצמה היא אמריקה וחינוכי חברתי
•. הבינלאומית" בזירה מאוד חשוב תפקיד משחקת ב ארה
• - - עד אפילו נע זה קדומים בימים חיים תוחלת יש על למעצמות- , בכ מדובר המודרנית בתקופה שנה שנה 300אלף
• , " היא. השנייה העולם מלחמת אחרי רק על למעצמת הפכה ב ארה - . את נכון קורא לא קורסת שהיא שחושב מי צעירה מאוד עדיין
, . לא, פעם אף להבין צריך שלה היתרונות את נכון קורא לא המפה. " ב לארה שיש כמו יתרונות הרבה כך כל עם על מעצמת היתה
, גיאוגרפית התפשטות במגמת כרגע נמצאת לא היא כל קודם סין לגבי , . , לה יש לכך מעבר אבל כלכלית התחזקות במגמת אלא רוסיה כמו
- . בנויה היא שלה והחסרונות היתרונות את כשמנתחים גדולות בעיות , טוענים המומחים שמרבית ופוליטית כלכלית מבחינה נכון לא כך כל , מעריכים ואנו מאוד גדול משבר שם שיהיה עד זמן של עניין רק שזה
- ה המאה של השני בעשור יקרה .21שזה
Apartment Investment Trends
Market has firmed up for class “A” and “B+” larger assets in better markets
• Market is efficient and organizes
• Substantial amounts of equity raised: what are the other alternatives?
• CAP rates decreasing
• Increase of Real prices
Market Divergence between quality of assets
Market Divergence between quality of assets
Class “C” and smaller assets
• Market inefficient and disorganized
• Agency loans not focused on smaller assets
• Collection issues challenge cash flows
• Continued pressure from distressed assets
• Investment opportunities to experienced investors
Multifamily Starts – lowest levels
Sources: US census, Sequoia Research
Apartment Investment Trends – Transaction Volume by Price Category
Sources: CoStar Group Inc., Real Capital Analytics
Apartment Investment Trends – Dollar Volume by Price Category
Sources: CoStar Group Inc., Real Capital Analytics
National Apartment Transactions
Sources: CoStar Group Inc., Real Capital Analytics
Sources: CoStar Group Inc.
Estimated Distresses U.S. Apartment Investment Trends – Dollar Volume
National Apartment Price / Cap Rate Trends
Sources:, CoStar Group Inc.
Apartment Cap Rate Trends – Average Cap Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury
Sources: CoStar Group Inc. NREI, Real Capital Analytics
U.S Apartment Buyer Composition
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics
Why the Long-Term outlook for the U.S. apartments is extremely favorable1. Population growth: constant immigration, Echo boomers
2. Sharp decrease in new supply
3. Affordability: rent vs. own
4. Employment growth
5. Weak dollar
Short term growth – Uncertainty
Job growth is hampered by psychology and uncertainty
• Corporations are sitting on cash
• Productivity is at all time highs
• Temporary employment is up 25%
• Small businesses are concerned about health care costs and tax increases
• Record deficits and national debt
• Extremely hard to qualify for any loan, both private and business loans
• Conservatism is slowing the rate of recovery
What type of investors will eliminate uncertainty?
• Cash Flow producing assets
• Experienced local investors
• Close to the market
• Cost Savings capabilities