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Claude Florin

Mobile Monday Switzerland #4 : Big Trends in Mobile in 2009

Mobile trends

2. Personalization and user analytics become a priority

3. Cloud computing will impact service infrastructure

4. Device innovation and fragmentation will increase

5. MNOs will consolidate or specialize towards services

1. User experience will drive business

User experience will drive business

MNOs

Semiconductor

Enterprise Infrastructure

Device

MNO infrastructure

Global Venture Capital Mobile Financing

Application as % of TotalConsumer Application as % of Total

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005

$5.4B

2006

$6.4B

2007

$5.1B

2008

$3.6BDol

lars

Inve

sted

12.1% 17.9% 16.3% 23.0%

2.6% 3.6% 7.9% 13.7%

VC investment in applications will increase

Government applicationEnterprise application

Consumer application

Sources: Rutberg & Co. Wireless Industry Newsletter, Dec ’08; Bain capital venture

Mobile trends

2. Personalization and user analytics become a priority

3. Cloud computing will impact service infrastructure

4. Device innovation and fragmentation will increase

5. MNOs will consolidate or specialize towards services

1. User experience will drive business

Personalization and user analyticsAdvertising revenue trends

0

1000

2000

3000

2010

On-line advertisingAdvertisingTelecoms

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Revenue EBITDA

Telecom Retail DevicesContent Advertising

EMEA Revenues WW Telecom + Revenue

Source : ADL / Exane + STL, Datamonitor, Zenith Opmedia; Advertiser Perceptions (executives survey) 2008.

B$ 6 months budget Change

Online 68%

Mobile 51%Cable TV 27%Magazines 18%Outdoor 17%Broadcast TV 16%Radio 16%

Local newspapers

11%

National newspapers

9%

Advertising spending

Opening to applications

Abstraction of user identity data

Real-time access to user subscriber data bases

Applicationrequests

Access control

Abstraction

Identity broker

HSSMS

Exchange Location

PresenceNetwork

Externalsources

HLR LDAP CRM

RDBMSXDMS

Personalization and user analyticsExposing user data securely

Mobile trends

2. Personalization and user analytics become a priority

3. Cloud computing will impact service infrastructure

4. Device innovation and fragmentation will increase

5. MNOs will consolidate or specialize towards services

1. User experience will drive business

Cloud computing service infrastructure Web 2.0 is a state of mind and a new business models

Why pay?... …when you can get services for free… …that are better

Storage

Directory assistance

Telephony

~$100

$1 per use

~$50 per month

Unlimited free storage for email, contacts & calendar Intuitive user interface

Search by category, fully automated, free text messages

Free PC-to-PC voice & video calls

hard drive

Softwareand collaboration

Users collaborate, develop documents and presentations on the web

~$300

Mobile trends

2. Personalization and user analytics become a priority

3. Cloud computing will impact service infrastructure

4. Device innovation and fragmentation will increase

5. MNOs will consolidate or specialize towards services

1. User experience will drive business

Device software fragmentation

Tools and platforms

for content, UI, services

Handset software

stack, AEE0.1-2$/unit

Content delivery : browse, buy, create, share,

services~5%

User generated content : messages, photos, videos,

preferences

OEM SW revenue Usage service revenue

Embe

dded

SW

Net

wor

k /

IR S

WWar

Mon

etiza

tion

ID

Source : Vision mobile ttp://www.visionmobile.com/rsc/researchreports/mobile-megatrends-2008-(visionmobile).pdf

Mobile trends

2. Personalization and user analytics become a priority

3. Cloud computing will impact service infrastructure

4. Device innovation and fragmentation will increase

5. MNOs will consolidate or specialize towards services

1. User experience will drive business

MNOs will consolidate or specialize

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

Ente

rtainm

ent

IT se

rvice

s3r

d Par

tyCo

nnec

tivity

Adve

rtisin

g

Exte

rnal

partn

ers

Inte

rnal

reso

urce

s

Partnership innovation3rd party enablers innovationIndustry model innovation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

DTAG FT

Telef

onica

Voda

fone TI BT KPN

Swiss

com

Mobile Fixed

Source : Economist Intelligence unit N=173

Consolidating from 7 to 4 operators/country in EMEA

Source : ADL/Exane, 2008

Consolidating into traffic pipes or specializing in service