A quick glance at autonomous automobiles

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A Quick Glance at Autonomous Automobiles

Michael M. Hsieh, Ph.D.VP of Green IT Taskforce and Education Program,

US China Green Energy Council;

PresenterPresentation NotesIntroduction and welcome remarks for todays seminar on Trends and Opportunities for Connected WorldI am Robert Wu, Chairman and CEO of US China Green Energy Council (UCGEC for short). My co-author Dr. Robert Larson, President of UCGEC apologizes for not being able to attend in person.

Level of Autonomy Defined by NHTSA

10/17/2016 2Reference: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

Level Definition Description

0 No Automation

The driver is in complete and sole control of the vehicle at all times. The driver has full control over the primary vehicle controls (brakes, steering, acceleration/drive) is himself responsible for driving the vehicle safely.

1Function Specific

Automation

One or more specific control functions are automated independently, for example electronic stability control or dynamic brake support in emergencies. The driver is fully engaged and responsible for overall vehicle control.

2Combined Function

Automation

At least two controls are automated and work in unison, such as adaptive cruise control in combination with lane keeping. The driver disengages from active control in certain limited driving situations, and is still responsible for monitoring the roadway and safe operation.

3Limited Self-

Driving Automation

The driver cedes full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions, relying heavily on the vehicle to sense changes in those conditions that require the driver to take back control within a comfortable transition time.

4Full Self-Driving

Automation

1. The vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. The driver is not expected to operate at any time or else the vehicle can be unoccupied.

2. This also includes vehicles without passengers or drivers. Driving safety rests entirely upon the vehicle's automated system.

Self-Driving Cars Are Coming

10/17/2016 3Reference: Self-Driving Cars Are Coming, But Theyre Not Ready For Pittsburgh Yet, Stephanie Roman, March 2016

Technologies for Fully Autonomous Cars Anti-lock brakes(ABS) Electronic stability control (ESC) Adaptive Cruise Control & Automotive Night

Vision Lane Departure Warning System Self-Parking Automated Guided Vehicle Systems And Lots and Lots More

10/17/2016 4Reference: Self-Driving Cars, An Independent Analyst, September 2015

A Street View in the Next 5 to 10 Years

10/17/2016 5Reference: The Future of Technology, Privacy, Security and Risks Modern Car Technology,Danielito Vizcayno, August 2015

An Illustration of A Self-Driving Car


Some Known Sensors for Autonomous Cars


Some Essential Hardware Sensors: for 360 degrees around the vehicle

within 5 meters range Cameras: working with RADAR to detect

objects in front of and behind a vehicle RADAR: detects the objects on the road that

the vehicle must avoid or brake for GPS: provides an approximate position of the

vehicle within +/- 20 meters LIDAR: creates a virtual reality view around

the vehicle10/17/2016 10Reference: Google Self-Driving Car Technology,Priya Prabhu, Trikaripur

University, September 2015

Automotive Architecture Modeling

10/17/2016 11Reference: Automotive System and Software Architecture,Yanja Dajsuren, Eindhoven University, March 2014

Some Essential Softweare Predefined 3D map Traffic Center Sensor Data Processing Localization Obstacle Tracking Control

10/17/2016 12Reference: Self-Driving Car in the Insurance Market,Auditorio Reale Seguros, Reale Sequros Inc., June 2016

Whats Going On Inside a Modern Car


TPMS: Tire Pressure Monitoring SystemOBD-II: On-Board Diagnostics

Comparison of Software Complexity

10/17/2016 14

Boeing 787, one of the most Electronic Airliner: ~8 Million Lines of Code

Chevrolet Volt, one Modern Day City Car: ~40 Million Lines of Code

Reference: Automotive System and Software Architecture,Yanja Dajsuren, Eindhoven University, March 2014

Complexity in Automotive Software

Automotive has 6-8 operating systems per vehicle today.A self-driving car from Google has 2 Billion Lines of Code.

10/17/2016 15Reference: Shifting to Software A New Look of Automotive Landscape, Thomas Bloor, QNX Software Systems, September 2016

Street Situations Handled by a Car Driver


The Role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) The Goal of AI Agent is to take the passenger

to its desired destination safely and legally. Google Maps and the hardware sensors data

are sent to the AI. AI determines:

How fast to accelerate When to slow down/stop When to steer the wheel And many other things needing support for

Decision Making10/17/2016 17Reference: Self-Driving Cars, An Independent Analyst, September 2015

From Sensing to Actions The Pipeline


The Benefit from Machine-in-Control


The Compute Engine Behind Software

10/17/2016 20

Attack Surfaces of a Self-Driving Car

10/17/2016 21

PassThru: J2534, also known as Pass-Thru, ensures that independent repair shops can work on modern cars and have cost-effective access to information and ECU programming downloads from vehicle manufacturer when required.

Reference: The Future of Technology, Privacy, Security and Risks Modern Car Technology,Danielito Vizcayno, August 2015

OBD: On-Board DiagnosticsWMA: Windows Media Audio

Threat Model in the Cyber World

10/17/2 2Reference: The Future of Technology, Privacy, Security and Risks Modern Car Technology, Danielito Vizcayno, August 2015

Indirect Physical Access OBD-II port (Federeally Mandated in USA) Disc, USB and iPot Port

Short Range Wireless Bluetooth Remote Keyless Entry RFIDs Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC)

Long Range Wireless Satellite Radio GPS

Vulneralbility from Wireless Interfaces

10/17/2016 23Reference: The Future of Technology, Privacy, Security and Risks Modern Car Technology, Danielito Vizcayno, August 2015

33 Corporations Working on Autonomous Automobiles

10/17/2016 24

Google and Tesla might be the biggest names chasing self-driving cars, but a host of auto

brands and other tech heavyweights are also investing heavily in driverless R&D.

Reference: 33 Corporations Working on Autonomous Automobiles, CB Insights, August 2016

The Still Unfolding Reality versus Fiction

10/17/2016 25Reference: Driving Disrupted Driverless Cars Change Everything, Sparks & Honey, October 2014

Impact to Insurance market Until 2020:

Most of the key players in the ordinary car industry will provide level 3 cars improving existing driver assistance systems (the exemption is Volvo)

Technological companies as Google and Apple seem to directly build a self driving car on level 4 and not to develop it by improving existing driver assistance systems

At 2040, the autonomous cars will become our primary means of transport Studies suggest that self-driving cars would dramatically reduce car

ownership. If autonomous cars can bring down accident rates substantially, standard

motor premiums will fall. If the driver-owner model of car ownership is replaced by pooled, shared

or leased driving, insurers may look to provide risk coverage to the ownership collective; or look to continue insuring the driver on a pay-as-you-go basis.


The On-going Evolution for Automobiles


Impact by Self-Driving Automobiles

10/17/2016 28

90% of cars become self-driving would lead to: Doubling of the road capacity Reducing driving times by 60% on

motorways & 15% on suburban roads

Source: University of Texas study

Reference: Driverless Cars Impact on Real Estate, Rodrigo Amado, Emily Dunn, Pauline Martin, Kshitij Parashar, Clelia Schwing, September 2016

What to Watch

10/17/2016 29

Increased land and property value in suburban areas

Large combined retail and residential property developments

Less residential parking space allocated

Decrease in parking space per car


What to Watch

10/17/2016 30

Surburbs with Increased

Property ValueLifestyle &

Entertainment areasLess Parking Space


Parking Space Has Been At a Premium

10/17/2016 31Reference: Driverless Cars Impact on Real Estate, Rodrigo Amado, Emily Dunn, Pauline Martin, Kshitij Parashar, Clelia Schwing, September 2016

2Office Inventory

Self-Driving Cars will reduce Parking Space (No Turkey Allowed in the Parking Lot)

A Potentially Big Impact to Cities


Cities may become places where no one lives but where everyone works and meets (Noah Smith,

2015)

Potential Impact to Residential Housing in Suburbs

10/17/2016 33

Faster and easier commutes means residential property value shifting from urban centres to suburban areas

Reduced time & cost of driving Bigger houses Retail and residential combined More row house complexes with bigger

common areas (i.e. parks and gardens) Landlords now have more incentive to build

complexes in the suburbs.


Potential Impact by Self-Driving Automobiles


Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2016

Commercial Real Estate

Single-Family Real Estate

Development cost Occupancy cost

10-12 % 4,5 %

Cost/unit Volume/unit

+25% -25%25-30% Mortgage

Offices Underground garage

Chart1

100125

10075

1 additional parking space

Sheet1

costunit volumeMiles getting to you destination70%

100100Miles spent on parking30%

12575

Sheet1

1 additional parking space

Electric Vehicle versus Autonomous Vehicle

10/17/2016 35

Electric Vehicle and Autonomous Vehicle are Independent and Non-contradictory ways of building vehicles.

An Autonomous Vehicle is one that is capable of sensing its environment and navigating without human input.

An Electric Vehicle is an automobile that is propelled by one or more electric motors, using electric energy stored in rechargeable batteries or another energy storage device.

It is clear that an Autonomous Vehicle can use a powertrain that includes an Internal Combustion Engine or Electric Motors. The trend seems to be using Electric Motors.

It is also clear that an Electric Vehicle can be built to be capable of sensing its environment and navigating without human input. There seems to be a trend to include the Self-Driving feature moving forward.

Reference: Wikipedia

PROs and CONs for Electric Cars

10/17/2016 36

For Electric CarsYear PROs CONs

2015

1. Cheaper Operating Costs2. Silence Is Golden3. Recharging Your Battery

Pack at Home4. Zero Tailpipe Emissions

1. Range Anxiety2. Charging Infrastructure At

Home, At Work, and Along the Freeways

3. The High Price of EVs4. Limited Choice of EVs5. Long Recharging Time

2016

1. Quiet and Quick2. Home Charging3. Cheaper to Operate4. No Tailpipe Emissions

1. Range Anxiety2. Long Refueling Time3. Higher Acquisition Cost4. Lack of Consumer Choice

Reference: Electric Cars PROs and CONs, Brad Berman, September 2016

PROs and CONs for Self-Driving Cars

10/17/2016 37

For Self-Driving Cars

Year PROs CONs

2016

1. Potential to reduce the number of Road Accidents

2. Passengers can carry on with other things

3. Mobility for disabled individuals

1. Potential to be hacked2. What happens if a

sensor goes out?3. Cost of the Technology

Reference: The advantages and disadvantages of self-driving cars, Geoff Haines, June 2016

Positive Opinions about Self-Driving Cars A computer is an Ideal Motorist when

compared with a Human. Computers use algorithms and data to

drastically reduce the chances of car accidents. Zero chance for Distracting a computer. Computer driven cars will dramatically reduce

the danger of driving. Significant savings in many different venues

such as insurance cost and healthcare cost. Saving time for humans while a computer

takes over the driving responsibilities. Platooning behavior of Self-Driving cars

would significantly improve traffic conditions and congestion and reduce commute time.

Can identify traffic problems or road risks early on.

Freedom and Mobility for all including those who could not get it.

Partially filling the void of lacking adequate Public Transportation.

Possible Higher Speed Limit and further reducing Time On the Road.

Creating more new jobs. Many Partial Functionalities already deployed

in the high-end cars. Greatly reducing the occurrence of Drunk

Driving Incidents. Saving from Not to Continue on the Old Mass

Transit Projects. Less Police Resource burnt on traffic related

issues. Self-Driving Cars can be spaced much closer on

the road. Less parking structure and much less parking

headaches. Much less need for special driver license for

operating cars. Better accommodation for senior citizens and

handicapped people.

10/17/2016 38Reference: Top 20 PROs and CONs Associated with self-driving cars, Auto Insurance Center, 2016

Negative Opinions about Self-Driving Cars Training needed to educate people to operate a self-

driving car. Cost of a self-driving car could be out of reach for

the general public for a long time. Accidents can and will still happen if self-driving cars

are not adopted widely. Cyber Security is a very big concern. A computer built in a self-driving car could have

been a set-up for collecting personal data. Self-driving cars could cause job losses, especially in

the transportation sector, especially when it comes to freight transportation and taxi drivers.

Who holds responsibility in a car accident- the driver? The car manufacturer? The software developer?

What role the driver might have to play in the event the technology fails?

In the event of an accident, for example, where a police officer is directing traffic, the cars cannot interpret human signals.

In the event of a technology glitch or recall, drivers might be helpless to get around, having been "out of practice" in the driving world for some time.

It's unclear how full adoption of the technology might be. Many individuals are nervous about handing over all the power

to a computer, which could malfunction and put the driver in a more dangerous situation.

It's unclear how self-driving cars would maneuver through hazards like roadblocks or unique local driving laws.

The success of self-driving cars currently relies on accurate mapping systems through GPS but GPS devices are not always accurate.

NHTSA remains skeptical of the technology behind self-driving cars, even calling for a ban on them at one point until further testing could be completed.

Google is currently at the helm of development for the cars, other auto manufacturers might sell fewer cars in the event that Google's version takes off.

It's likely that the self-driving cars would be electric. This implies bad news for the gasoline industry as well as the Internal Combustion Engine based industry.

Personal injury lawyers may see a reduction in their earnings if self-driving cars truly are safer and reduce the number of accidents on the road.

Driver's education courses would lose money and go out of business because there would be less of a need to educate people how to drive.

People who enjoy driving are unlikely to buy into the technology that means they no longer need to focus behind the wheel.

10/17/2016 39Reference: Top 20 PROs and CONs Associated with self-driving cars, Auto Insurance Center, 2016

Thank You!

www.ucgef.org

PresenterPresentation NotesThank you.

And now I turn the meeting to Dr. Ruomei Li, who will introduce the keynote speakers from both China and US.

Slide Number 1Level of Autonomy Defined by NHTSASelf-Driving Cars Are ComingTechnologies for Fully Autonomous CarsA Street View in the Next 5 to 10 YearsAn Illustration of A Self-Driving CarSlide Number 7Some Known Sensors for Autonomous CarsSome Known Sensors for Autonomous CarsSome Essential HardwareAutomotive Architecture ModelingSome Essential SoftweareWhats Going On Inside a Modern CarComparison of Software ComplexityComplexity in Automotive SoftwareStreet Situations Handled by a Car DriverThe Role of Artificial Intelligence (AI)From Sensing to Actions The PipelineThe Benefit from Machine-in-ControlThe Compute Engine Behind SoftwareAttack Surfaces of a Self-Driving CarThreat Model in the Cyber WorldVulneralbility from Wireless Interfaces33 Corporations Working on Autonomous AutomobilesThe Still Unfolding Reality versus FictionImpact to Insurance marketThe On-going Evolution for AutomobilesImpact by Self-Driving AutomobilesWhat to WatchWhat to WatchParking Space Has Been At a PremiumA Potentially Big Impact to Cities Potential Impact to Residential Housing in SuburbsPotential Impact by Self-Driving AutomobilesElectric Vehicle versus Autonomous VehiclePROs and CONs for Electric CarsPROs and CONs for Self-Driving CarsPositive Opinions about Self-Driving CarsNegative Opinions about Self-Driving CarsThank You!